High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by high numbers of routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from Week 2 saw healthy doses of red-zone targets, air yards, deep targets and goal-line carries.

Targeting players who run a high percentage of routes is also a good approach for identifying breakout candidates, beatable player props, DFS targets and players to prioritize in the Week 3 fantasy football rankings and rest of season rankings.

This weekly report will look at recent rates of routes run per dropback along with players who commanded a high rate of high-value opportunities compared to larger samples to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or fewer opportunities in the passing game heading into Week 3 and for the remainder of the 2022 season.

• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Fantasy Trade Advice: Buy & Sell
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Rankings
• Injuries to Monitor Week 3

Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rate of routes run per dropback | Week 2

There’s been a lot of turnover in the 49ers offense through 2 weeks, with all the injuries that the team has sustained from their backfield to the QB position. But the one constant has been Brandon Aiyuk, operating as the WR1 in the passing game. He led the team in route runs in Week 1 and led the team in target share with Jimmy G under center in Week 2 (33% target share).

The Bears’ passing game was a mess with the weather and SF pass-rush. So I was willing to go back to a guy like Darnell Mooney, who still played on 90% of the snaps and still has no competition for targets.

However, despite the great deployment that continued on Monday night football – 94% route participation – the lack of willingness to throw the ball downfield is killing Mooney’s fantasy value. He can’t be started at the moment until we see the Bears offense decide to throw more.

I’d like to sell, but he’s probably so cheap right now you can get him for virtually nothing. And there’s going to be an overreaction to Justin Fields‘ 11 pass attempts on Sunday night, which is definitely on the drastic side of how bad things can get for this passing game.

On Monday night football, Devonta Smith ran a route on 100% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks and commanded a 23% target share (7 targets, 18% target rate per route run). A.J. Brown missed some time after getting checked for an injury, but it barely reduced his playing time — 92% route participation and 88% snap share.

WRs Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder continued to split time in the slot whiteout Gabriel Davis, with Jake Kumerow taking the majority of Davis’s snaps on the perimeter (80% route participation).

Highest Target Share | Week 2

Allen Robinson was heavily involved again from a playing time standpoint for the Rams in Week 2, posting a 90% snap share. He converted his routes into 5 targets and 4 catches for 43 yards. A-Rob scored once and another TD was removed because of a timeout call. There was a clear effort to get him the ball in the red zone, but I’m still concerned that he posted just a 14% target share. He’s got touchdown upside in a high-powered Rams offense, but I’d just leverage that as you sell him high after a scoring week.

The Miami Dolphins have a concentrated target share. In Week 2, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for a 64% target share, with both over 170 receiving yards and two TDs. Nobody else had more than four targets. In Week 1, the dynamic duo combined for a 55% target share.

Waddle’s 45% target rate per route run is INSANE. On nearly half of his routes, he was getting targeted. Madness.

Patrick Mahomes warned us it would be a new guy every week.

Afraid to report after two weeks…

That it’s flat across the board after Kelce (22% target share).

Smith-Schuster – 15%
MVS – 15%
Hardman – 14%
CEH – 10%
McKinnon – 8%

Fun.

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 16, 2022

Worth noting Mecole Hardman has the highest air yards share at 24% on Kansas City despite running fewest routes among the top 3 Chiefs WRs.

RED-ZONE TARGETS (Targets inside the 20-yard line)

Most Red-zone targets | Weeks 1-2

DEEP TARGETS AND AIR YARDS

Most Air Yards | Week 2

Several players saw a surplus of air yards and/or multiple deep targets in Week 2 but failed to haul in any for actual production. The most notable players include: Davante Adams, Nico Collins and D.J. Chark Jr. Stefon Diggs was not one of these players as he cashed in on his team-leading 134 air yards into a monster performance of 12 catches for 148 receiving yards and 3 TDs.

Most Deep Targets (20-plus air yards) | Week 2

TOP TAKEAWAYS

• 7 WRs ran a route on 100% of their team’s dropbacks in Week 2: Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, Ja’Marr Chase, D.J. Moore, Chase Claypool and Jahan Dotson. Elite WR usage. There’s reason to believe that Dotson’s target share the past two weeks (12%, 11%) has room to grow. Keep in mind both other Washington WRs were at 89%.
• Allen Robinson can’t run any more routes – 97% route participation – so he’s a sell-high with his mediocre target rate per route run.
• Allen Lazard, in his 1st game back, earned a 90% route participation. He’s being treated like the No. 1 WR on the Packers’ offense from a playing time perspective. However, it’s not great that he only commanded 3 targets, giving him the lowest target per route run (12%) among Packers pass-catchers in Week 2. I’d sell high after the TD score on prime time.
• Chris Olave’s role is growing. 85% route participation in Week 2, 33% target share and good lord…334 AIR YARDS. That number is absolutely ludicrous. Needless to say, Jameis Winston knows who his favorite downfield target is.
• Jets rookie WR Garrett Wilson. All in. 77% route participation in Week 2, equal to Corey Davis. Despite him missing a few snaps after suffering a slight back injury. The former Ohio State Buckeye has the most red-zone targets in the NFL through two weeks.
• Although there are serious concerns for Elijah Moore. 5th in targets in Week 1 and tied for 3rd in targets in Week 2 (5 targets, 11% target rate per route run). Rest of season…I want Wilson.
• Drop DeVante Parker. 100% route participation tanked to 71% in Week 2, behind Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers. Kendrick Bourne‘s playing time also increased (55% route participation).
• Meyers reclaimed his alpha status in the Pats offense as the WR1 with a 38% target share. Definitely on the waiver wire radar against a reeling Ravens secondary in the Pats home opener in Week 3.
• Rashod Bateman hasn’t been getting elite treatment – 71% route participation – but he’s commanding targets at a high rate (32% target rate per route run) in a much pass-happier Ravens offense than many expected. Buy high.
• Drake London led all players in target share in Week 1 (48%). Back-to-back weeks as the alpha in the Atlanta passing attack. Buy high.
• Courtland Sutton balled out with Jerry Jeudy out of the lineup with a whopping 39% target share and 50% air yards share. Just wait until Sutton cashes in on his red-zone targets. He’s 0-4 on converting them to TDs through 2 weeks with 3 coming in Week 2 alone. That won’t sustain, especially if Jeudy misses more time.
• Don’t fall for the big game from Amari Cooper. The volume was there in Week 2 – 37% target share – but his boom-or-bust profile isn’t going away anytime soon. Quintessential “sell-high” candidate.
• The Giants are an ugly pass offense right now, but hard to ignore the volume Sterling Shepard is seeing. 31% target share in Week 2. Worth a flier in deeper formats with Kadarius Toney‘s playing time in limbo and Kenny Golladay no longer part of the offense.
• Nico Collins is starting to step up as the WR2 in the Texans passing game. 24% target share and 37% air yards share in Week 2.
• Curtis Samuel has led the Commanders in targets in back-to-back weeks, while hitting a season-high route participation in Week 2 (89%). Keep starting him.
• Treylon Burks needs to be on all rosters. His route participation skyrocketed in Week 2 (73%) after a 37% route participation in Week 1. He maintained a high target share for a second straight week (27%) and looks to be en route to becoming the no doubt WR1 in the Titans offense.
• Justin Jefferson was targeted thrice in the red zone in Week 2, but came down with zero receptions. Don’t expect that to be the norm week-over-week. Adam Thielen also went 0-2 on his two RZ looks from Kirk Cousins.

RUNNING BACKS

Rate of routes run per dropback | Week 2

Saquon Barkley didn’t have a monster game like in Week 1, but still had MONSTER usage that included 24 touches for 88 yards and an elite 79% routes run per dropback rate. He dominated the Giants backfield for a second straight week with an 89% opportunity share. I’d be going after him in trades this week.

Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert had very different roles from a week ago.

#Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle – 80%
Tyreek Hill – 76%
Mike Gesicki – 62%
Raheem Mostert – 55%
Chase Edmonds – 51%
Durham Smythe – 49%

Week 1:https://t.co/SneZiZMewD

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 19, 2022

Mostert led the way with 14 touches to Edmonds’ 6, with both seeing equal route usage.

Darrel Williams played 46% of the snaps in Week 2 after James Conner‘s injury thrust him into a larger role. Williams totaled 8 carries for 59 yards, played more snaps and ran more routes than Eno Benjamin. He also received the goal-line carry, which he converted into a score.

Williams is my preferred Cards RB to target if Conner misses time with the ankle injury.

Highest Target Share | Week 2

Tony Pollard’s receiving usage is salivating. The Cowboys explosive runner out-targeted Ezekiel Elliott 7-to-2, while doubling his total yardage output. His 54% target rate per route run suggests that new QB Cooper Rush loves targeting Pollard. And that trend could continue should Dalton Schultz miss anytime with his knee injury.

RB Opportunities Share | Week 2

A.J. Dillon led the team in targets (6), not Aaron Jones (5) in Week 1.

Dillon also out-touched Jones 15 to 8…continuing the usage trend from last season.

Jones’ production will be heavily reliant on him as a receiver out of the backfield. So my advice would be to sell Jones after a spiked week in production and buy Dillon before the market realizes he is the traditional RB1 in the Packers offense, with goal-line duties in hand.

That spiked week happened in Week 2, with Jones going OFF versus the Chicago Bears on Monday night. But again, the usage. Snaps were 50/50 again with Dillon. And the younger back had more carries (18 vs 15) with the same number of targets (3) – resulting in a slightly higher opportunity share.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has averaged 11 touches per game over the last two weeks. Yes, he’s been efficient on his opportunities against two extremely soft run defenses. But concerns about how he will fare without volume in tougher matchups. He remains a sell-high option.

Breece Hall and Michael Carter split carries (7 each) in Week 2 despite Carter playing a much higher snap share (61% versus 27%). But Carter out-targeted the rookie 5-to-1 while running a route on 53% of Joe Flacco‘s dropbacks.

Hall’s overall touches remain low, but there’s no denying that if he continues to produce yardage and scores, the volume will follow suit. The talented rookie ranks top-5 in yards after contact per attempt through 2 weeks.

A week after Dameon Pierce was left for dead by fantasy managers, he out-touches Rex Burkhead 16-2. Luckily Pierce didn’t convert the usage into crazy production, so he can still be had through trade after seeing a 62% snap share and dominant 89% opportunity share in Week 2 (29% snap share in Week 1).

Josh Jacobs got nearly all the carries (19) to Zamir White (1) in Week 2. No. 1 opportunity share in Week 2 among RBs (95%).

But the usage just resulted in 69 scoreless yards and one catch. Continues to be a low upside option. Sell high after a multi-TD game.

CARRIES NEAR THE GOAL LINE

Most carries inside the 5-yard line | Week 2

In addition to Jeff Wilson’s lone goal-line carry, he was also targeted twice inside the 20-yard line. Alas, he was vultured in the rushing department on more than one occasion to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

But even so, Wilson totaled 20 touches and that makes him a weekly RB2 option. Because he won’t always be left out at the goal-line – 5 carries inside the 10-yard line last two weeks – and the 49ers are down another RB after Tyrion Davis-Price suffered an ankle sprain.

Most carries inside the 10-yard line | Weeks 1-2

Joe Mixon didn’t score for a second straight week, which may have some fantasy managers frustrated. Let them be. And take full advantage. Because for a second straight week, Mixon played 73% or more of the team’s offensive snaps to go along with 22 touches. And that’s despite the Bengals trailing throughout. His lack of receiving and 3rd-down work was way overblown this offseason. Buy him while the consensus is low on a 0-2 Bengals squad. The Jets in Week 3 figure to cure all wounds.

Austin Ekeler’s snap rate (63% vs 49% in Week 1) and route participation (62% vs 38%, Week 1) increased substantially in Week 2, likely due to the Chargers having to play catch up towards the end of the game.

Ekeler racked up a ton of receptions in the second half – 8 out of his 9 receptions.

But the constant effort to get guys like Sony Michel and Josh Jacobs might hurt Ekeler’s fantasy value in the long term. Especially considering we are starting to see those guys get work inside the 20. Michel earned a goal-line carry and Kelley had another RZ touch.

Ekeler’s not totally sunk – still had two RZ carries plus two targets inside the 10.

But his overall volume won’t be the same as last season when he scored 20 TDs. I’d be looking to flip him for another stud RB that isn’t seeing as much of a work split load or for an elite WR.

TOP TAKEAWAYS:

• Cam Akers was a BUY last week and remains one heading into Week 3. Led the team in carries (15) and RB opportunities (18) after Darrell Henderson Jr. earned the bell-cow usage in Week 1. Akers’ Week 2 62% opportunity share was on par with Antonio Gibson/Javonte Williams
• Jeff Wilson Jr. totaled 20 touches and that makes him a weekly RB2 option. Because he won’t always be vultured at the goal-line – 5 carries inside the 10-yard line last two weeks – and the 49ers are down another RB after Tyrion Davis-Price suffered an ankle sprain.
• James Robinson totaled 25 touches for 78 yards with a score in Week 2, more than doubling the workload of No. 2 RB Travis Etienne Jr. (12 touches and 3 catches for 53 yards). J-Rob ran more routes and graced a 63% snap share. Stock up.
• A.J. Dillon split snaps 50/50 again with Aaron Jones. And the younger back had more carries (18 vs 15) with the same number of targets (3) – resulting in a slightly higher opportunity share. Sell Jones and buy Dillon.
• Rhamondre Stevenson was buried on the Week 1 depth chart, playing just 25% of the snaps. However, he saw just one fewer touch than Damien Harris and looked explosive with the ball in his hands. With little to no playmakers in the Pats’ offense in Week 2, Stevenson’s role increased to a 62% snap share because he ran 15 more routes (25 vs 10) than Harris. His route participation was 61% – a top-10 mark on the week.
• In addition to leading all running backs in touches (28) Leonard Fournette played an 87% snap share in Week 2. He should be viewed as Tampa Bay’s workhorse for the foreseeable future. Their offense is embracing the running game more than ever with all the injuries to the receivers.
• Everything Javonte Williams truthers could have desired continued in Week 2. His snaps increased (65% vs 58%), and he also led the team in carries (15) over Melvin Gordon (10) — unlike in Week 1. The second-year back also added 4 targets to Gordon’s one target, with Williams running a route on 57% of dropbacks. He also saw the team’s lone RB goal-line carry. If the gap in usage continues to go in Williams’ favor, you’ll be glad you traded for him now versus later. Might be tougher after a two-TD performance, which could come sooner rather than later based on his 5 scoreless red-zone targets over the last 2 weeks.
• Cordarelle Patterson’s usage was not great in Week 2. He ran a route on just 41% of dropbacks. Patterson also split carries with rookie Tyler Allgeier and saw just one target. The Week 1 production where he saw 25 touches were never going to keep up. He saw just 11 total opportunities versus the Rams.
• Darrel Williams is my preferred Cards RB to target if James Conner misses time with the ankle injury. The favorite to earn early down work and goal-line work.
• Dameon Pierce out-touched Rex Burkhead 16-2 in Week 2. Luckily Pierce didn’t convert the usage into crazy production, so he can still be had through trade after seeing a 62% snap share and dominant 89% opportunity share in Week 2 (29% snap share in Week 1). Burkhead only two touches. Zero in the 2nd half.
• Devin Singletary saw solid usage from an on-field standpoint on Monday night — 65% route participation and snap share — but he simply was not getting the ball (8 touches, 10 opportunities). Considering rookie James Cook only totaled one touch in the 1st half, I wouldn’t go chasing his counting stats he racked up when the starters had already left the game in a massive blowout. Instead buy low on Singletary’s usage as the clear-cut RB1 in the Bills backfield. He earned the lone goal-line carry versus the Titans, but couldn’t punch it in. 
• Miles Sanders earned a 69% opportunity share in Week 2, totaling 20 touches for 86 yards. His route participation was abysmal — 34% tied with Kenneth Gainwell — but he continues to deliver with rushing production behind an elite OL.
• Rough night for Derrick Henry. Just 13 carries and zero targets in Week 2. With just 7 routes run (32% route participation) the Big Dog is major bust candidate if/and when the Titans trail as seen on Monday night.
• Dalvin Cook also struggled — 36 yards on ten touches — but the usage was still solid. 62% route participation, six targets (13% target share) in Week 2. Would be looking to buy-low.

TIGHT ENDS

Rate of routes run per dropback | Week 2

Highest Target Share | Week 2

RED-ZONE TARGETS (Targets inside the 20-yard line)

Most Red-zone targets | Weeks 1-2

TD equity should be coming for both Zach Ertz and Tyler Higbee based on the sheer red-zone target volume they are seeing, in addition to their elite roles – top-10 in route participation – at the tight end position.

DEEP TARGETS AND AIR YARDS

Most Air Yards | Week 2

TOP TAKEAWAYS:

• TD equity should be coming for both Zach Ertz and Tyler Higbee based on the sheer red-zone target volume they are seeing, in addition to their elite roles – top-10 in route participation – at the tight end position.
• Same for Browns TE David Njoku, who ran a route on 81% of dropbacks in Week 2 and saw two RZ targets.
• You could do worse than Tyler Conklin. 21% target share and 89% route participation in Week 2. Also posted an 100% snap share. Rare usage for a fantasy tight end that is being overlooked.
• Higbee posted 9-plus targets (26% target share) for a second straight week.
• Don’t chase Mike Gesicki’s Week 2 game. Still under 65% route participation and just an 8% target share.
• Chase Hayden Hurst. 20% target share in Week 2, emerging as a bigger No. 3 threat than Tyler Boyd.
• Kyle Pitts has been non-existent in the Falcons offense through two weeks. But the fact that Drake London has been so productive suggests this offense under Marcus Mariota can support a viable fantasy weapon. Buy low on Pitts and his 91% route participation from Week 2.
• Keep streaming Gerald Everett. 17% target share and 68% route participation over the last 2 weeks. That will keep him in the fringe fantasy TE1 conversation with solid usage in a high-powered offense.
• Austin Hooper is not exciting, but he’s a near every-down player for the Titans– 80% route participation in Week 2.
• Everything considered, I’d much rather opt for Irv Smith Jr. who saw his route participation increase from 42% to 60% in Week 2 with an 18% target share to boot (8 targets). Firmly on the TE streaming radar ahead of Week 3 after finishing with the 3rd-highest air yards share at TE in Week 2 (26%).
• Even without Gabriel Davis in the lineup, Dawson Knox saw underwhelming usage. He ran a route on just 60% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks and posted a 13% target share.

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