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Let’s take a look at players to buy and sell this week. And be sure to check out our weekly trade value chart with updated values for all players.
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Fantasy Football Trade Advice
Players to Buy
You didn’t honestly think the Mike Williams 2022 season wouldn’t have a few bumps in the road now did you? Big Mike did his best Casper impression in Week 1 finishing with just two catches for 10 yards on four targets. It was extremely bizarre to see him not go off, especially considering Keenan Allen exited the contest in the 1st half. It’s par for the course when it comes to Williams, who always has a bit of boom-or-bust to his game. He’ll bounce back big Thursday night with Allen unlikely to suit up.
A.J. Dillon led the team in targets (6) not Aaron Jones (5) in Week 1.
Dillon also out-touched Jones 15 to 8…continuing the usage trend from last season.
Jones’ production is going to be heavily reliant on him as a receiver out of the backfield. So my advice would be the sell Jones after a spiked week in production and buy Dillon before the market realizes he is the traditional RB1 in the Packers offense, with goal-line duties in hand.
Cam Akers managers…you’re concerned. As Akers manager myself, I’m concerned. Of course. But it’s only one game, and overreacting too much isn’t the approach here. Akers still has a handcuff appeal in a high-powered offense if Henderson is the lead back, and he can be bought for dirt cheap after a prime-time contest where everybody saw him take a major backseat.
Especially if you still want to hold Henderson or can’t get a high enough return, just target Akers on the cheap. Because it would not shock me if Akers has this RB1 role at some point down the line.
D.J. Moore was out-targeted 6-to-8 by Robbie Anderson in Week 1, who also caught a long 75-yard TD. It’s a blip on the radar for Moore, who still played 100% of the snaps on offense for the Panthers.
We all know Moore is the alpha in Carolina passing attack, so I’d buy low after a sub-par game. The target share between Anderson and Moore will correct in the coming weeks.
Has Breece Hall taken over the Jets’ backfield? No. Michael Carter is still a significant part of what the team wants to do on offense. But the fact that Hall was able to command a whopping ten targets on just a 45% snap share versus Carter’s 60% snap share, gives me confidence that he will continue to be used in the passing as he eventually takes over the true RB1 role. It might take some time, but fantasy managers who practice patience will be rewarded handsomely.
Panic will ensue among Dalton Schultz managers regarding the injury to Dak Prescott. But we know that TEs fair much better with sub-par QB play than WRs do. And among all the TEs that played on Sunday…Schultz was the only one that played 100% of the snaps. His role in Dallas’ offense provides him a super secure floor, even if the ceiling is shorter with Prescott sidelined.
The preseason usage was a lie! Dameon Pierce fell very much behind Rex Burkhead in Texans’ backfield in Week 1. Pierce played just 29% of the snaps versus Rex Burkhead‘s 71%. Sexy Rexy got 19 touches! However, he was extremely inefficient as a rusher…posting the second-worst rushing EPA -7.7 in Week 1 versus a stout Colts front. I doubt we see his receiving role diminish, but as a long-time journeyman, Pierce will eventually take over duties on early downs. Nowhere to go but up for the rookie.
The Bears passing game was a mess with the weather and SF pass-rush.
Don’t hold it against a guy like Darnell Mooney, who still played on 90% of the snaps and still has no competition for targets in the Bears passing game.
So much for James Cook playing a massive role in the Bills’ passing game. The second-round rookie running back fumbled on his first touch and was basically ever heard from again in Week 1. It makes sense that Moss’ increase in the receiving game could have been Cook’s had he not put the ball on the ground. A lack of ball security put Devin Singletary in the doghouse during the first half of last season; his two teammates both fumbling are a definite benefit to Motor Singletary maintaining the RB1 role on offense.
So even though Singletary was out-targeted by Moss, he ran a higher percentage of routes per dropback (47% vs 37%) and played a higher snap rate (59% vs 37%). It is slightly concerning that Moss did earn the lone red-zone carry among the Bills RBs, but Singletary did have a red-zone target for eight receiving yards.
Trey Lance completed less than 50% of his passes in a September Chicago monsoon, and still managed to score double-digit fantasy points. It’s a credit to his rushing ability — 54 rushing yards in Week 1 — that won’t be going away in future weeks. Buy-low on him now because I wouldn’t be surprised if this is his worst outing all year.
Rhamondre Stevenson was buried on the Week 1 depth chart, playing just 25% of the snaps. However, he saw just one fewer touch than Damien Harris and looked explosive with the ball in his hands. With little to no playmakers in the Pats offense, I’d anticipate Stevenson’s role to just increase with nobody else worthy of seeing more volume.
With Elijah Mitchell sidelined early on with an injury, the 49ers were forced to turn Deebo Samuel back into RB1. And as a result, Brandon Aiyuk ascended to WR1 based on his 99% snap rate. I’d buy low with better weather conditions ahead in the future, even after Aiyuk saw little production in Week 1.
David Njoku played on 89% of the Browns’ snaps in Week 1. That high-end usage will translate to fantasy usage, even though it didn’t in Week 1. Peoples-Jones seeing 11 targets every week isn’t going to happen.
Travis Etienne Jr. dropped a walk-in TD and also was out-carried 11 to 4 to James Robinson off the torn Achilles injury.
Snaps spit 50/50. Excellent for those looking to bolster their RB room with a guy like James Robinson, who has already proven he can be a fantasy RB1.
Christian Watson had a prime opportunity for a long TD from Aaron Rodgers in Week 1.
But let it slip through his hands. Woof.
Had he caught the TD, he’d be the headliner of every waiver wire article this week. Just add him and hope his 66% snap rate — 2nd-highest on Sunday — stays intact even if Allen Lazard makes his return. He still has more long-term upside than Romeo Doubs.
Romeo Doubs was behind in the pecking order among Packers WRs playing just 57% of the snaps…behind the likes of Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb. However, he earned four targets in the second half alone, as GB looked to jump start their sluggish offense. Worth stashing if Allen Lazard is still not 100%.
Players to Sell
Alvin Kamara totaled just 12 touches for 42 yards in Week 1, while backfield teammate Mark Ingram had 5 for 27. Kamara’s egregiously large workload was going to come down after last season, and that’s exactly how we saw things play out.
Recall, AK41 averaged 15 touches per game when in use in tandem with a healthy Mark Ingram last season.
24.2 touches without Ingram.
If that doesn’t change, Kamara’s production won’t meet that of fantasy RB1.
Not good folks. Najee Harris totaled just 12 touches for 26 yards on a 59% snap share. He also left the game with an injury.
Without top-tier volume on Harris’ side, I’d be looking to try and move the Steelers’ RB1 — even at an ADP loss. Because things could get worse if the injuries linger and he can’t maintain a heavy workload. His offensive environment also provides him no favors.
11 targets, but just two catches. Yikes. Factor in the loss of Dak Prescott, I’d be in the camp of looking to sell CeeDee Lamb before his value hits rock bottom with an obvious downgrade at quarterback for the next 6-8 weeks. Lamb still isn’t proven enough to warrant making a bad quarterback good, which is why I’d be looking to get out now.
Darrell Henderson not only dominated the snap share in the Los Angeles Rams (82%) backfield Thursday night over Cam Akers, but he received elite usage in the passing game. His 78% route participation was par for the course for the Rams RB1 last season (82%) between Henderson and Sony Michel.
Hendo also converted his receiving usage into solid production, commanding five targets.
His fantasy stock is obviously way up after the surprise prime-time showing, but the real question fantasy managers should be having is how to take advantage of Henderson’s status as RB1.
Because I’m not so sure it’s secure as many others will think. And please bear with me here, as I know many that read my advice know that I was “in” on Cam Akers as a target in the RB Dead Zone. As a side note…just drafting WRs in this range helps avoid potential pitfalls such as this…
Regardless, I’d like to point out that all the reports of Akers/Henderson splitting snaps were totally false. Sean McVay has traditionally operated with an RB1 philosophy, where one guy gets 20-plus touches per game. Which is why I was in on Akers in the 1st place.
So my process of chasing the RB1 role – 82% snap rate is extremely high for any RB – was correct. I just picked the wrong Rams running back.
But, let’s not forget that both Akers and Henderson both dealt with soft-tissue injuries during the offseason. So it’s possible that Henderson may have just been the more healthy of the two and got the RB1 role in this particular matchup.
It’s my long way of saying that if I drafted Henderson late, I’d just cash out now. Sell high. Because an 82% snap rate for an RB can only go down, not up, because of how high it is. Not to mention, Henderson’s injury history proceeds him, and the Rams’ offensive line looks like it could have issues all year long.
Josh Jacobs went 10 for 57 with no TDs in Week 1. He’s a low-upside RB behind a horrible O-line. If and when Zamir White gets any type of involvement, Jacobs’ fantasy value will crater.
Cordarelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
Cordarelle Patterson made the most of an early exit by Damien Williams, touting the rock 22 times for 120 rushing yards against an elite Saints run defense on a 65% snap share.
All in all, C-Patt totaled 25 touches, easily the most in his polarizing career. Considering how late you were able to draft him, I’d sell high knowing I can get a much less volatile asset in return.
Not to mention, next week’s matchup versus a stout Rams defense might poise serious issues for Patterson and bring his fantasy value back down to Earth.
Patrick Mahomes showed that he didn’t need Tyreek Hill in Week 1, delivering 5 TDs against the league’s worst secondary. But for Mahomes managers, his Week 1 performance provides the perfect conduit to sell high for QBs that offer more on the ground like a Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, plus potentially more.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
Anytime you can sell an RB after he scores two receiving TDs…you should do so. CEH only played 39% of the Chiefs’ snaps — albeit it was a blowout — but you’d expect him to get more than 7 carries with KC playing with a positive game script. The fact that Jerick McKinnon was equally involved — 39% snap share — makes me want to cash out on CEH.
If somebody in your league still think David Montgomery will be the Bears’ starter long-term, trade him immediately. Khalil Herbert totaled more yards (45) on eight fewer carries than Montgomery in Week 1 – 17 rushes for 26 yards. Monty’s -10.6 rushing EPA ranked dead last on the week. Herbert actually posted a positive rushing EPA of 4.3 – which ranked 8th on the week.
Miles Sanders finally scored! But still lost goal-line work to both Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott while playing a 52% snap share.
You can play Sanders in plus-matchups, but he’s risky in game scripts that the Eagles might be trailing in.
Be aware that depending on how long Elijah Mitchell is out for, Jeff Wilson or [insert another 49ers RB here] will lose work to Deebo Samuel in the rushing game.
So although Wilson looks teed up as the sure-fire RB1 for the 49ers…it may not be so simple.
In deeper formats add Jordan Mason on the cheap, who was active over Tyrion Davis-Price because he plays special teams.
TDP was probably inactive because he doesn’t play on special teams, but his third-round draft capital should not be overlooked.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – CLE)
11 targets. 36% target share. Nobody on planet Earth saw this coming for Donovan Peoples-Jones, who averaged exactly three targets over his first 26 NFL games. So consider me skeptical of buying into DPJ’s performance with two highly paid players in David Njoku and Amari Cooper seeing little involvement in Cleveland’s passing game. And keep in mind, even with 11 targets, Peoples-Jones didn’t even finish the week as a top-40 WR.
The two receiving TDs are going to look extremely attractive to those looking for WR help off the waiver wire. But aggressively adding Duvernay is malpractice. He played just 52% of the snaps and commanded only four targets. Let someone else add him. He won’t be on their roster very long.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
