The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

By: Derek Brown

• DET -4.5, O/U 50
• Seahawks vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Geno Smith: Smith has surpassed expectations thus far as the QB19 in fantasy points per game. He’s been extremely effective, ranking 10th in PFF’s passing grade, and third in adjusted completion rate. He’s seventh in passer rating and 15th in yards per attempt. The Lions are a plus matchup, ranking ninth-highest in success rate and EPA per dropback. His access to a ceiling comes via the deep ball this week. Detroit is 24th in DVOA against deep passing with the tenth-highest explosive pass rate allowed. Smith has the fifth-lowest deep ball rate in the NFL (minimum five deep attempts), but he’s been effective when throwing downfield. He’s fifth in deep adjusted completion rate and 13th in big-time throw rate on deep balls. Smith has darkhorse top 12 upside, finishing last week as the QB7 in fantasy.

Jared Goff: Goff is a decent QB2 streaming option this week even without Amon-Ra St. Brown. Goff is the QB11 in fantasy, but this fantasy ranking is glossing over some lackluster play. He’s currently 26th in PFF passing grade, 27th in adjusted completion rate, and 19th in yards per attempt (minimum 20 dropbacks). Seattle is a nice matchup to help him improve those numbers in Week 4. The Seahawks are fifth in success rate and first in EPA per dropback.

Running Backs

Weeks 2-3

Rashaad Penny: This backfield is an utter mess. Over the last two games, Penny has averaged 10.5 touches and 42 total yards. He’s played 69% of the snaps in two of three games, with at least 12 carries and 60 rushing yards in each of those contests. Penny sees the bulk of the work and nearly all of the red zone work. While he has the highest route run rate, he’s mediocre at earning targets. He’s been effective with his workload ranking 23rd in yards after contact per attempt and 24th in PFF’s elusive rating, but not nearly as explosive as last year. The Lions are a nice matchup for him on the ground. Detroit allows the highest rushing success rate, seventh-highest rushing EPA, and eighth-highest explosive run rate. Penny is a decent RB3/flex play. If he gets 15 carries and can take one to the house, he may sneak into RB2 territory this week.

Ken Walker III: Walker hasn’t seen more than six touches in any game or played more than 25% of the snaps. He’s a high-end stash but unplayable unless he gets more playing time or injury strikes.

Jamaal Williams: With D’Andre Swift due to miss time, Williams will be Detroit’s horse, with Craig Reynolds factoring in some. Williams is coming off a week where he played 45% of the snaps, logging 22 touches and 107 total yards (two touchdowns) as the RB3 in fantasy. Williams has seen 78.6% of the team’s carries inside the red zone and 88.9% of the work inside the ten, so there shouldn’t be any debate on who is Detroit’s goal line back with Swift out. It has been and will continue to be Williams. Williams is a top 12 running back this week against Seattle. The Seahawks are tenth in rushing success rate, fifth in explosive run rate, and sixth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Williams should also load up on receptions against a team that’s 26th in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the sixth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards. Works in his favor that a large chunk of the team’s Target share (31%) is up for grabs without St. Brown in the lineup. 

Craig Reynolds: Reynolds likely sees a handful of touches in relief of Williams this week, but he can’t be projected for a similar role as Williams played previously. He’s only a stash candidate at this juncture. Last year he flashed big-time talent. Among all running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts, he ranked third in yards after contact per attempt behind only Rashaad Penny and Nick Chubb.

DK Metcalf: If you weren’t able to “sell-high” on DK Metcalf after his “big” Week 3 performance – five catches for 64 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets – then he should be firmly in your starting lineups as fringe WR3 option versus an exploitable Lions defense that ranks 7th in fantasy points allowed to WRs this season. However, I caution that you should still try to sell Metcalf off his Week 3 efforts because there is a chance that he draws coverage from Lions top cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is finally living up to his draft capital expectations. He’s by far the Lions best defensive back and has been targeted on just 14% of his routes covered – the lowest on his team. And remember, it took 12 targets and Metcalf still couldn’t crack 65 receiving yards last week.

Tyler Lockett: Meanwhile, Tyler Lockett has the much more favorable matchup inside versus Lions slot cornerback Mike Hughes. Hughes has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards from the slot this season (144). 67% of Lockett’s targets have come from the slot this season. And considering Lockett still leads the team in targets and air yards through three weeks with Geno Smith under center – a continuation of what happened last season when Smith played – Lockett is my preferred Seattle wideout to trust in Week 4 as a WR3 option with upside.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: The Sun God was on his way to another stellar fantasy day in Week 3, but an in-game ankle injury derailed his production. He ran a route on just 77% of dropbacks because he missed time during the game, but he still managed to post some numbers to satisfy fantasy managers. His 24% Target share (nine targets) ranked second, and he still compiled 6 catches for 73 yards. He’s currently on the injury report with a minor ankle injury, but his production has been too great to consider benching him if he’s active for gameday. His 31% Target share ranks 8th among all receivers this season. But it was announced on Friday that ASB will miss Week 4, which downgrades Goff’s projection substantially as a fringe starter, while opening more opportunities for other Lions pass-catchers to step up. 

D.J. Chark: Chark continues to see favorable usage in the Lions offense, running a route on 91% of Jared Goff‘s dropbacks entrenched as a full-time player on the outside. However, it’s clear that Chark is viewed primarily as the team’s deep threat (18.4 aDOT, 3rd in the NFL), which naturally means he carries more boom-or-bust to his game. Seattle’s defense ranks fourth-highest in average depth of target faced and first in yards gained per pass completion this season, so it’s the perfect matchup to deploy Chark as a high-end WR3/FLEX play. Jared Goff ranks seventh in deep-ball pass rate this season, so Chark will have his chances to deliver. And his opportunity for a higher Target share is boosted tremendously with St. Brown out of the lineup. 

Josh Reynolds: With ASB out, Josh Reynolds is the favorite to see an increase in production. With St. Brown limited in Week 3, Reynolds led the Lions in targets (10), while running a route on 84% of the team’s dropbacks. He also finished the week top-10 in air yards share (49%). Kalif Raymond also figures to take on a larger role as the next-man up in the slot. 

Tight Ends

Noah Fant: Yawn. Noah Fant was out-snapped by Will Dissly in Week 3 and ran a route on just 50% of Geno Smith‘s dropbacks. It’s horrible usage for a tight end, making Fant unplayable in fantasy football.

T.J. Hockenson: If you have Hockenson, there’s no reason that you should be looking towards the waiver wire for an alternative despite his lackluster start to the season. His 70%-plus route participation easily helps him separate from the majority of tight ends across the NFL and he’s playing in a game that projects to be high-scoring, suggesting he has a solid chance of scoring. Not to mention, he still owns a more than acceptable 17% Target share on the year — which should increase with both Swift and St. Brown out — and Seattle’s defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

By: Matthew Freedman

• TEN -3.5, O/U 42.5
• Titans vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill: Gone are the halcyon days of 2019-20, when Tannehill was a fantasy QB1 in 62% of his starts by virtue of his efficiency (9.2 adjusted yards per attempt, 7.2% touchdown rate). With a hollowed-out offensive line and without former No. 1 WR A.J. Brown, Tannehill has seen his efficiency numbers precipitously drop this year (7.2 AY/A, 3.8% TD rate). He’s not a bad quarterback in reality: He ranks No. 10 in composite expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE, per RBs Don’t Matter). But in an offense that is No. 27 in pass play rate (52.4%) and surrounded with shaky-at-best receiving options, Tannehill is a low-end QB2 in fantasy.

Matt Ryan: Ryan has kicked off his Colts tenure with a record of 1-1-1. That feels right. He has looked mediocre at best with his new team. In fantasy, he’s the No. 28 quarterback with 12.1 points per game. In reality, he’s No. 28 in EPA + CPOE (0.009) and No. 30 in AY/A (5.5). If not for the fact that the Titans were No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (22.6 per game), putting any effort into this blurb at all would feel like a waste. Even with the matchup, Ryan is a low-end QB2.

Running Backs

Weeks 1-3

Derrick Henry: With just 3.6 yards per carry, Henry is not quite his former self, but he has had 20-plus carries in two of three games, and last week he saw surprising usage as a pass catcher, getting a career-high six targets, which he converted into 5-58-0 receiving. All totaled, he has 250 yards and two touchdowns through three games, which makes him the No. 12 fantasy running back with 13.2 points per game. He hasn’t had a full-blown “King Henry” game yet, but it’s hard to be huffy with a guy averaging 20.3 opportunities per game. Still, the Colts defense is No. 2 in rush DVOA (-40.9%) and might get back All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard (back) this week. Henry is a low-end RB1.

Dontrell Hilliard: If not for two receiving touchdowns scored in Week 1, Hilliard wouldn’t warrant a blurb. He missed Week 2, so the numbers are skewed a little, but he has just four carries, five targets and 26 snaps in two games. Your team is in trouble if Hilliard is anywhere near your starting lineup.

Weeks 1-3

Jonathan Taylor: The No. 1 pick in most drafts this season, Taylor has disappointed to date. He’s the No. 10 fantasy running back with 14.3 points per game. That’s not horrible, but that’s not what Taylor investors were hoping for when they acquired him. Even so, he’s still the No. 1 back this week in our expert rankings, because his usage has been great (61 carries, 13 targets) and his production has been good enough (329 yards, one touchdown). Taylor is actually tied for No. 1 in the league with 11 carries in the red zone. At some point, more touchdowns will come — maybe this week: The Titans defense is No. 30 in rush EPA (0.085). Taylor remains a weekly no-doubt starter.

Nyheim Hines: I remember Colts HC Frank Reich saying this summer that if he were in a fantasy league he’d draft Hines. Hopefully Reich actually is in a league — your league. And hopefully he did draft Hines, so that you didn’t. In no game this year has Hines had even 10 opportunities, and he’s yet to find the end zone. He has the semblance of a floor with 15 receptions, but he has no sense of ceiling with only 121 scoreless yards. He’s the No. 42 running back with 6.5 fantasy points per game and an uninspiring flex option this week.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods: Among Titans pass catchers, Woods is No. 1 with 78 pass play snaps, 71 routes, 16 targets, nine receptions and 137 yards. In a bad pass offense, someone needs to be the No. 1 receiver, and right now that guy is Woods. With zero touchdowns and even zero red zone targets, Woods has zero upside, especially since the Colts are No. 27 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (22.8 per game). Woods is desperate WR4/flex play.

Treylon Burks: Burks has a respectable 8.8 yards per target, but he’s yet to have more than six targets in a game or play even 70% of the snaps. He’s an “I’d rather be early than late” WR4/flex play,

Kyle Philips: Philips (shoulder) missed Week 3, but the fifth-round slot man has impressed in limited action with a 33.3% target rate on routes and 2.4 yards per route, and he has a great matchup against Colts CB Kenny Moore, who has struggled this year with a 77.8% catch rate and 9.4 yards per target allowed. Check back on Friday for an injury update.

Michael Pittman: Pittman missed Week 2 with a quad injury, but he returned in Week 3 without a setback. Through two games, Pittman has 17-193-1 receiving on 22 targets, and in two games against the Titans last year he had 16-154-2 receiving on 27 targets with 1-5-0 rushing. Pittman has a great matchup against perimeter CBs Kristian Fulton and Terrance Mitchell, who respectively have allowed 1.19 and 1.20 yards per coverage snap for their careers. Pittman is a fantasy WR1.

Parris Campbell: Campbell has turned 172 snaps into eight targets, five receptions, 47 yards and zero touchdowns. At best, he’s a galaxy brain contrarian DFS stacking option.

Alec Pierce: After missing Week 2 with a concussion, Pierce flashed in Week 3 with 3-61-0 receiving on five targets — but he was just No. 6 on the team with 20 routes. He’s almost irrelevant in even the deepest of redraft leagues.

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper: Hooper has yet to get more than 19 yards in a game this year. His family wishes he were a TE2.

Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson & Jelani Woods: Alie-Cox and Granson have combined for 87 scoreless yards on 19 targets. Woods has two touchdowns … on two receptions. None of them is viable.

Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants

By: Andrew Erickson

• CHI -3.5, O/U 39
• Bears vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: The case for being bullish on Daniel Jones in fantasy is solely related to his ability as a rusher. He ran for 79 yards versus the Cowboys on Monday night, and desperate fantasy managers are praying it carries over into Week 4. He’s averaging 40 rushing yards and 8 carries per game. Because the current state of this passing game does not lend itself to create fantasy scoring opportunities for Danny Dimes. Without proven wide receiver playmakers, Jones ranks second-worst in passing EPA. And considering the Bears haven’t allowed 17 fantasy points to any QB they have faced all season, the Giants QB is not the waiver wire streaming you are searching for in Week 4.

Justin Fields: The issue with Justin Fields is just the lack of sheer lack of passing volume. He’s completed just 23 passes through the first three games. He has more rushing attempts (27) over the same time period. Fields’ rushing alone does give him some fantasy appeal as a desperation streamer, but his ceiling is capped in this prehistoric offense.

Running Backs

Week 3

Saquon Barkley: Saquon Barkley played 91% of the snaps on Monday night, totaling 18 touches for 126 yards and a rushing TD. Barkley’s 95% backfield opportunity share ranked second to only Leonard Fournette in Week 3. Top-3 fantasy RB ROS and a darkhorse to finish as the RB1 overall in Week 4. The Bears defense ranks second-to-last in rushing yards per game allowed this season (157.0).

Khalil Herbert: David Montgomery left Week 3 with an injury, opening the door for one of my favorite RBs, Khalil Herbert, to absolutely smash. The second-year RB rushed for 157 yards on 20 carries with two TDs. Also added two catches for 12 yards, while running a route on 56% of dropbacks. Including Week 3, Herbert has never rushed for fewer than 75 yards in a game he has played at least 50% of the snaps. His average output in those games is just over 100 rushing yards per game (5-game sample size). Montgomery has rushed for 75 yards-plus 5 times since the start of 2021. He’s an auto start and a fantasy RB1 with Monty ruled out for Week 4. The Giants run defense ranks third in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (126.3) at 5.6 yards per carry. LFG. 

Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney: Darnell Mooney led all WRs in Week 3 with a 38% Target share. It still didn’t matter with Mooney finishing the week as the WR78 catching 2 passes for 23 yards. Mooney’s alpha usage won’t matter till the Bears extend an effort to throw more. And that doesn’t seem likely based on the success they have had rushing the football at the league’s highest rate. The Giants have also been stingy versus opposing WRs allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position this season.

Giants WRs: Sterling Shepard led the Giants in air yards share (46%) and Target share (31%, 10 targets) on Monday night while playing 81% of the team’s snaps. The Giants slot receiver was the only reliable option in Big Blue’s passing game, but he will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. He was carted off the field after the team’s final offensive snap in Monday night’s loss to the Cowboys. With him out, Kadarius Toney would be the Giants WR to stash off the waiver wire, even though he missed Week 3 with his own injury and will also be out for Week 4. He still easily has the most upside among this group of pass-catchers. Veteran Richie James Jr. would be next in line for an increased role in Week 4. He currently ranks second on the Giants in every receiving category behind Shepard. He also played the second-most snaps (74%) in Week 3 and has the best matchup from the slot versus Chicago. Bears slot cornerback Kyler Gordon ranks second in fantasy points allowed per coverage snap and fourth in target rate per route covered (26%). You likely aren’t starting any of these guys versus the Bears, but Toney and rookie Wan’Dale Robinson are worth stashing to see how things shake out with Shepard removed from the offense. Robinson is also out in Week 4. Richie James szn. 

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet finally saw nice usage in Week 3 – 80% route participation – but did nothing in the stat sheet because of the lack of passing attempts in the offense. Nobody in the Bears passing game can be played in fantasy lineups until we see a willingness or signal that they will throw more. It’s really that simple.

Daniel Bellinger: The Giants rookie tight end caught four of his five targets on Monday night, but only ran a route on 47% of Daniel Jones‘ dropbacks. It’s encouraging that he was seeing targets, but he needs his snaps to increase before he can be trusted in fantasy lineups. Worth monitoring to see if he is a low-key benefactor in the wake of Shepard’s injury.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles

By: Andrew Erickson

• PHI -6.5, O/U 48
• Jaguars vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB3 in points per game this season, and there’s no reason to think his production will slow down versus Jacksonville. Duval is emerging as a pass-funnel defense with teams throwing against them at the third-highest clip. They have allowed the league’s fewest rushing yards (55 per game), but the 12th-most passing yards (251 per game). Considering the Eagles have shown no hesitance to let Hurts rip it to his elite cast of pass-catchers, he should yet again finish as a top-3 fantasy QB in Week 4. The rushing floor Hurts offers – 12-plus carries per game – makes him nearly bulletproof.

Trevor Lawrence: After three weeks of NFL games, Trevor Lawrence ranks fourth in passing EPA behind only Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen. He’s the QB5 in expected fantasy points per game (23.6). The Jaguars QB owns a 5-0 TD-INT ratio over his last two starts and is very much on the QB streaming radar for those that are desperate. Now the matchup versus the Philadelphia Eagles is definitely tough; they rank second in pass defense EPA. And that’s not just because they have played horrible QBs. The Lions, Vikings and Commanders all rank in the top 16 in passing EPA. Therefore, Lawrence should be viewed as a floor play in the mid-QB2 range in the toughest matchup he has faced all season. But I’d still roll with Lawrence over waiver wire QBs not named Jared Goff if I already have him rostered because he’s just been so good this season and there’s a chance that this game shoots out.

Running Backs

Week 3

Miles Sanders: Sanders’ ceiling is always going to be limited by his lack of work at the goal line and as a receiver. Sub-50% route participation with a mobile QB isn’t going to cut it, even with his effectiveness and workload as a rusher. I’d be slightly concerned that this could be a disappointing day for the Eagles running back versus a Jaguars run defense that hasn’t allowed more than 60 rushing yards to a running back this season. Back-end RB2 for Week 4.

James Robinson: James Robinson put together another RB1 performance in Week 3: 20 touches for 116 yards and 1 TD (58% snap share, 53% route participation). He’s strung together three straight top-8 finishes in half-point scoring with back-to-back 20-plus touch workloads. There’s no denying he’s the Jags featured back and he has excelled in his recovery from the Achilles injury in late December. Fantasy managers should expect the production for Robinson to continue on the ground versus the Philadelphia defense, who is more vulnerable versus the run than the pass. Their defense ranks 29th in run defense EPA. Admittedly, it is a slightly inflated number due to D’Andre Swift‘s massive Week 1, so the matchup is more neutral than a “smash spot” for JRob. Besides, fantasy points for RBs are driven by volume and that is what Robinson has been getting the last two weeks.

Travis Etienne Jr.: Don’t overlook the usage by second-year RB Travis Etienne Jr. who saw steady work with 16 touches for 75 yards on a 43% snap share in Week 3. Simply put, you want to acquire pieces of this ascending Jags offense and ETN’s perception as the No.2 back makes him attainable. As for Week 4, you’d like to see Etienne further progress as part of the team’s passing game, assuming they find themselves in a negative game script. But because the route participation continues to favor Robinson over Etienne (56% to 35%), it’s tough to start Etienne as an RB2 until he actually takes on the receiver role. He’s in the RB3 range as he has been all season, but he’s far from a must-start FLEX option.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: A change of scenery has done absolute wonders for Christian Kirk, who leads the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 25% Target share through the first three weeks. He’s emerged as Lawrence’s go-to target, running 77% of his routes from the slot. He ran a route on 98% of Lawrence’s dropbacks in Week 3, which is the exact usage we want from our WRs because it provides a super-high floor. The matchup versus cornerback Avonte Maddox in the slot isn’t a cakewalk – PFF’s 8th-highest graded cornerback this season – but it’s the volume you are chasing with Kirk. Maddox has allowed the most catches among the Eagles elite trio of cornerbacks. And better yet as of late Friday afternoon, Maddox has been ruled out. Play Kirk with confidence. 

Zay Jones: Jones was a popular waiver wire pickup this week, after an 11-target outing in Week 3 that turned into 10 receptions for 85 yards and one touchdown. He ran a route on 80% of dropbacks splitting time both out wide and in the slot. However, I am concerned about the matchup here when Jones is tasked with winning on the outside. As previously noted, the Eagles boast three top-tier cornerbacks with their best two – James Bradberry and Darius Slay – defending the perimeter. They rank fourth and third respectively in the lowest passer rating generated when targeted in coverage this season. Therefore I’d be bearish on thrusting Jones into my Week 4 starting lineup. We are just one week removed from a 3 catches for 23 yards outing for Jones in Week 2.

Marvin Jones Jr.: Just no. All the reasons to be concerned about Zay Jones are even more of a red flag for Marvin Jones. He still hasn’t recorded more than 40 receiving yards in a game this season despite running a route on 85% of dropbacks this season. He leads the team in air yards share (37%), but the Eagles have allowed the lowest yards per completion (8.9) this season.

A.J. Brown: Brown owns the NFL’s fifth-highest Target share this season (33%) as Jalen Hurts clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. He is going to continue to get peppered with targets and be productive regardless of the defense he is facing. In the case of Jacksonville, their defense ranks seventh in yards per completion and is allowing 14.7 yards per reception to WRs. For perspective, the Ravens horrible secondary is allowing 15 yards per reception to WRs.

DeVonta Smith: Don’t consider Smith’s back-to-back week of production as a fluke. The former Crimson Tide product showed promise as a rookie and that has continued into Year 2. He owns a team-leading 29% Target share and 36% air yards share – nearly identical marks to his teammate A.J. Brown. And interestingly enough, the most productive WRs that the Jags have faced this season have been those viewed as No. 2 in their respective offenses. Curtis Samuel, Ashton Dulin and Joshua Palmer were all the most productive WRs when they faced the Jaguars this season, despite none profiling or being used like their team’s No. 1. It’s partially related to the Jaguars cornerback Darious Williams manning the slot as the team’s worst defensive back. He is PFF’s sixth-worst graded cornerback. And that’s worth noting because Smith has the most targets from the slot in the Eagles offense, with seven coming the past two weeks. Start him as a fantasy WR2.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Pay no attention to Dallas Goedert‘s mediocre snap share (64%) or route participation (56%) from Week 3. He missed a portion of the game dealing with a shin injury. He remains one of the few trustworthy tight ends in fantasy football as a player running a route on nearly 90% of Jalen Hurts‘ dropbacks. He has yet to finish worse than TE13 this season.

Evan Engram: I’ve echoed my praise for the Eagles cornerbacks. And that means if the Jaguars are to have a chance at winning this football game, Evan Engram needs to deliver. The ex-Giants tight end looked like a prime streamer entering Week 3, but flamed out with one catch for nine yards. However, he caught a 2-point conversion and came extremely close to converting his end-zone target into a score, but failed to get his feet inbounds. We can’t just completely write him off in an ascending offense with a season-long 15% Target share and his high-end 80% route participation, which is a top-10 mark at the position. Especially with the Eagles strong cornerbacks likely forcing Lawrence to target his tight end more than last week.