New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• NE -1, O/U 40.5
• Patriots at Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Patriots News – Injury Reports
• Steelers News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones: Jones struggled in Week 1 which has been a continuing theme of this Patriots offense. Jones was the QB30 with a measly 7.1 yards per attempt. With zero rushing upside and a floundering offense, Jones is a sit this week. The Steelers were eighth in pass defense DV0A last year and are off to a hot start after Week 1 (fifth). They held opposing passers to the 12th-lowest adjusted completion rate last year. They stifled Joe Burrow in Week 1 with four picks while keeping him to the sixth-lowest net yards per pass attempt.

Update: Mac Jones is dealing with a back issue, but he’s expected to play.

Mitch Trubisky: This version of the Patriots’ defense might not be as good as previous iterations, but they can still give Mitch Trubisky fits in Week 2. Trubisky was the QB25 last week, playing a game manager role with 5.1 yards per attempt (30th) and 18th-highest PFF passing grade. The name of the game for Trubisky behind his patchwork offensive line is to get the ball out fast with the 12th-lowest time to throw. New England ranked fourth in pressure rate last week. If the rush gets home, Trubisky will crumble after he ranks 20th in pressure completion rate (24th in 2020).

Running Backs

Week 1

Damien Harris: With Ty Montgomery headed to the IR, this backfield has been trimmed from a three-headed monster to a two-headed beast. New England could be a hydra with Pierre Strong popping up out of nowhere, but for now, we’ll approach as if the running back touches will be whittled down to Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris retained his red zone role in Week 1 with two, yes two, red zone targets. With the strength of the Steelers’ defense residing in the secondary, the Patriots should resort to bully ball and run the everloving mess out of the ball in Week 2. Ugly wins are still wins. Last year Harris ranked top ten in breakaway runs and breakaway run rate. He was also 16th in evaded tackles. The Patriots’ offensive line was still 13th in second-level yards after Week 1, so they can open up holes for these backs. The Steelers, after one game, are 23rd in open field yards after giving up big plays by the bunches in 2021. Last year Pittsburgh was 32nd in explosive run rate while allowing the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. Harris and Steveson are RB3s with RB2 upside this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson split the early down work last week with Harris while Montgomery at into the passing down work. Stevenson should pick up most of, if not at least, half the routes for this backfield. With 12-15 touch upside this week in a favorable matchup, he could walk away with RB2 numbers. The Steelers were 15th in DVOA against passing down backs last year. Stevenson could rumble for a long gain on any carry this week. He was fourth in juke rate and 20th in breakaway run rate last year.

Najee Harris: Harris is a risk-reward RB2 this week. Harris missed some time last week with an injury scare (foot), but the team has proclaimed that he is good to go this week. If you have other options for RB2, this could be a good time to consider them. Harris is a volume bet at best. The Steelers’ offensive line remains in shambles after one Week as they are 25th or lower in every line metric I value, which is in line with 2021. After one week, the Patriots don’t look like the pushover run defense they were last year, as they are top five in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Harris played 59% of snaps last week with a pitiful 12 touch and 26 total yard box score. The most concerning aspect of Week 1 was his two targets, 13.3% (last year 20.0%) target per route run rate and 39.4% route run per pass attempt rate. Harris needs the pass game involvement and his rushing work to produce for us in fantasy. New England was 29th in DVOA against receiving backs last year, so even if they shut him down running the ball, there’s some pass game upside if his routes creep back up and Trubisky looks his way more.

Update: Najee Harris practiced in full on Thursday & Friday. I’m approaching with caution, but it’s likely you don’t have better options than him for your RB2 spot.

Wide Receivers

DeVante Parker: Parker and Jakobi Meyers were the only full-time wideouts for the Patriots last week. No other wide receiver eclipsed a 55% route per dropback clip. Parker could only command two targets in Week 1 (6.6% target share). Parker ran 94% of his routes on the perimeter. This means he’ll see Akhello Witherspoon and Cameron Sutton this week. Witherspoon allowed a 77.8% catch rate and 94.7 passer rating in Week 1, but last year he was electric, holding opposing receivers to a 48.6% catch rate and 48.0 passer rating. I expect a bounceback performance from Witherspoon here. Sutton was a liability last season, giving up a 68.9% catch rate and 108.8 passer rating, but he started the season dominating (37.5% catch rate and 50.0 passer rating). Fade Parker this week in all formats.

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers led the receivers with a 20.0% target share and 54 air yards. He ran nearly 64% of his routes from the slot. If you’re considering any New England receiver this week, it should be Meyers. Last year he was sixth in route win rate and fifth in win rate against man coverage. He’ll line up against Arthur Maulet, who allowed a 78.2% catch rate and 128.4 passer rating in slot coverage last year. Meyers is a middling flex option this week.

Diontae Johnson: Johnson proved he is still the unquestioned number one receiving option for Pittsburgh leading the team in air yards and with a 31.5% target share. He finished Week 1 as the 24th-highest graded wide receiver per PFF (minimum five targets) and as WR32 in fantasy. Johnson’s talent (last year ninth in overall route win rate) and target volume keeps him in the WR3 conversation weekly. He’ll see Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills in coverage this week. Last year Jones allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating. Mills was more beatable with a 58.3% catch rate and 114.6 passer rating.

Chase Claypool: Claypool’s slot usage was in line with expectation (95% slot) in Week 1. The realm where Claypool surprised was in the rushing department with six carries. We’ll see if that continues, but it was a welcome sight. Claypool was the WR49 in fantasy last week with a 13.1% target share and 6.8 aDOT. Unless Claypool gets a volume bump in targets or the team uses him more downfield, he could struggle weekly. He’ll see Myles Bryant in coverage this week, which allowed a 78.7% catch rate and 86.9 passer rating last year. Claypool could use his size against the 5’9″ 185-pound Bryant this week.

George Pickens: Pickens is another case of preseason hype not lining up with regular season expectations. While Pickens might be talented, he’s still the fourth option in a Trubisky-led offense. His 7.8% target share isn’t enough to remotely consider for lineups.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Henry played 79.2% of the snaps in Week 1, drawing a 10.0% target share (12.0% target per route run rate). Henry will be a streaming option for many weeks, but against a defense that has been top ten in DVOA in each of the last three seasons, it won’t be in Week 2.

Jonnu Smith: Smith’s usage in Week 1 was encouraging as he played 67.9% of the snaps, but his route participation was still lagging (56.7%, 21st). A 13.3% target share and lack of routes in a touch matchup aren’t going to cut it for Week 2.

Pat Freiermuth: The defensive matchup is beyond brutal for Pat Freiermuth, but considering his elite Week 1 usage and the lacking options at the tight end position, you are probably stuck riding it out this week. Freiermuth was top-four last week among tight ends in targets (ten), target share (first, 27.0%), target rate per route (third, 34.5%), and snap share (91.8%). His route participation sitting at only 76.3%, is still good. New England has been top 12 in DVOA against tight ends in each of the last three years. They held tight ends to the lowest receptions and receiving yards in the NFL last season.

Check out my DFS advice for this and all games

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• IND -4, O/U 47
• Colts at Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Colts News – Injury Reports
• Jaguars News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: In Week 1, the Jaguars looked just as bad as in 2021 against the pass. Carson Wentz carved them up 313 yards passing (7.3 yards per attempt) and four passing scores. Jacksonville allowed the second-highest adjusted completion rate and seventh-highest yards per attempt last season. Ryan should have all day to pick this secondary apart. Ryan faced the eighth-lowest pressure rate in Week 1. Jacksonville blitzed at the fifth-highest rate in Week 1 but came up empty, ranking 31st in pressure rate.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has some upside this week against the Colts. He made small steps in Week 1 toward paying off on the promise and hype last year. He was 22nd in PFF passing grade, with a tendency to push the ball downfield (third in aDOT), ranking third in deep passing attempts. Last year the Colts were seventh in deep completion rate allowed, and through Week 1, they are 26th in DVOA against deep passing. Expect Pederson to dial up some play-action looks (Lawrence 12th in play-action rate Week 1) and heave it deep. Lawrence was also second in aDOT on play-action throws in Week 1.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor destroyed in Week 1 with 35 touches and 175 total yards, playing 74.7% of the snaps. After one game, he has a 54.0% route participation mark while also sitting at third in routes run among running backs. Last year in their two meetings, Taylor averaged 22.5 touches and 110.5 total yards as the RB5 and RB22. The Jaguars allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate last year through the first nine weeks, and it looks like that version of this defense is back for 2022. Jacksonville is 13th in second-level yards and ninth in open field yards after one game. Taylor still runs behind a front five that got him into the second-level at a top-five clip in Week 1. Add in that Jacksonville was 27th in red zone rushing defense last year, and Taylor is still a top play.

Nyheim Hines: Even during a week where the Colts trailed for nearly the entire game, Nyheim Hines only logged a 19.1% opportunity share (60th) with a 32.0% route participation mark. Yes, he saw a 12.2% target share (24th among running backs), but it simply isn’t enough. He finished last week as the RB24 but considering these usage metrics, the fantasy finish is puffing up his actual role. The Jaguars were second in DVOA against receiving backs last year. Sit Hines in Week 2.

James Robinson: Robinson was a pleasant surprise from Week 1. He soaked up 49% of the snaps with 12 touches, 69 total yards, and two scores, propelling him to RB11 for the week. Robinson split the red zone role down the middle with Etienne with two red zone carries and a target (Etienne had three red zone targets). He looked like Robinson of old with 4.18 yards after contact per attempt and three missed tackles forced on his 11 carries. The Colts’ run defense is a problem, though. They looked like last year’s stellar unit in Week 1, holding Rex Burkhead and Dameon Pierce to 2.9 yards per carry. In 2021 they allowed the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and were 12th in red zone rushing defense. They ranked top 12 in second-level and open field yards.

Travis Etienne: This game has Travis Etienne written all over it. Etienne played 51% of the snaps last week, turning his six touches into 65 total yards. While he saw a 10.5% target share, his route participation (50%, 17th) implies better usage could be ahead for Week 2. The Colts were 27th in DVOA last year against receiving backs with the 13th-most receiving yards (21st in receptions). Getting him into space this week should be a priority for Pederson’s game plan.

Wide Receivers

Update: Michael Pittman was downgraded to out on Saturday.

Ashton Dulin and Mike Strachan: With Pittman joining Pierce on the sideline, Parris Campbell would take on an elevated role. But also Dulin and Strachan become interesting deep league plays or adds. Dulin has run 14 routes versus Strachan’s four. Dulin has a 3.29 yards per route run and the stronger bet for volume if Pittman is out.

Punt Pivot ? for Week 2️⃣ pic.twitter.com/mo4AcFGB3y

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) September 17, 2022

Parris Campbell: Campbell played 74% of the snaps in Week 1 with a 72% route participation mark. He ran from the slot on 84% of his routes, drawing a minuscule 8.2% target share without a deep or red zone target. In deeper formats or DFS, he’s an interesting play against Darious Williams. Williams has played sparingly in the slot over the last two years, allowing a 58.3% catch rate (12 targets), 68 receiving yards, and a score.

Alec Pierce: Alec Pierce is currently in concussion protocol. Check back throughout the weekend for complete analysis on him if he suits up. Update: Pierce has been ruled out.

Christian Kirk: In Week 1, Christian Kirk was everything we hoped for this off-season. He finished as the WR19 with 117 receiving yards and beautiful usage numbers. He was 12th in target share (31.6%) and 23rd in target per route run rate. His 3.08 yards per route run jump off the page running from the slot on 84% of his snaps. Kirk is a top 24 wide receiver option against Kenny Moore. Moore was one of the most exploited slot corners last year, and that has quickly translated into 2022. He allowed a 71.4% catch rate and 138.7 passer rating (one touchdown) in Week 1. Kirk should feast.

Marvin Jones: Jones makes for an interesting deep league flex play this week. He logged a 92.4% route participation clip in Week 1 while drawing a 15.8% target share, running 88% of his routes on the perimeter. He is appealing because he tied Kirk for the team lead with two deep targets. As previously mentioned, after one week of action, the Colts are 26th in DVOA against deep passing. If Lawrence winds up downfield, he’s looking for Marvin Jones and Kirk for big plays. Jones will match up against Stephon Gilmore and Brandon Facyson. Last year Facyson allowed a 61.3% catch rate and 107.1 passer rating. Gilmore was solid with a 68.2% catch rate and 80.7 passer rating in coverage. Gilmore started this year off in a stout fashion, too, with a 50% catch rate and 60.9 passer rating given up in Week 1.

Update: Kenny Moore is questionable. If Moore is unable to go, Nick Cross (safety) would assume slot coverage duties. Cross is a third-round rookie out of Maryland who has allowed all three targets in his coverage to be secured. Cross has 4.3 speed at 6’0″, so he should have no issue running with Kirk.

Zay Jones: If you don’t want to go with the elder Jones, then Zay Jones could make sense as a deep flex-start. Zay Jones saw a 23.7% target share in Week 1 with an 88.1% route participation mark. His 10.3 aDOT was a new wrinkle as he was a field stretcher last year (13.1 aDOT, 13th). Jones was heavily featured in the red zone last week with three looks inside the 20. While his 1.59 yards per route run are concurrent with his slightly above-average talent level, he is still a good bet for a touchdown in this game if Lawrence goes off. Jones will run about 69% of his routes against Facyson and Gilmore.

Tight Ends

Kylen Granson: Granson surprisingly led the Colts’ tight ends in routes last week (29) while operating in the slot or out wide on 48.4% of his routes. With a 14.3% target share and one red zone target last week, he’s in streamer consideration if you’re hurting in dynasty leagues, but you probably have better options in redraft formats. Jacksonville was 20th in DVOA against tight ends last year, ranking 14th in receiving yards and 17th in receptions allowed.

Mo Alie-Cox: The offseason hype train took only one week to derail. Alie-Cox only managed 34.0% route participation and a 4.1% target share. Do not let him anywhere near your starting lineups.

Evan Engram: Speaking of offseason curiosities. Many people were enamored with Evan Engram and his pairing with Doug Pederson. Engram only saw a 10.5% target share with a putrid 0.82 yards per route run in Week 1. He didn’t log a target deep or in the red zone. Starting Engram in redraft is probably getting too cute, but he makes sense in DFS pairing with Lawrence. The Colts were 21st in DVOA last year with the third-most receptions, seventh-most receiving yards, and sixth-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends.

Check out my DFS advice for this contest and all games

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Dolphins at Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Dolphins News – Injury Reports
• Ravens News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: After one week of watching the Ravens’ pass defense look somewhat healthy (despite losing Kyle Fuller to a torn ACL), they look like a matchup to avoid on paper. Tua Tagovailoa could walk away with a solid stat line on the back of his receivers like last week, but it’s likely not going to amount to more than a QB2 performance. Tagovailoa was the QB22 in fantasy last week with throwing for 270 yards, ranking 12th in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in yards per attempt. The Ravens gave up 307 yards passing to Joe Flacco last week, but he only threw for one score and that raw number is inflated by his 59 passing attempts (5.2 yards per attempt. Baltimore is tenth in pass defense DVOA after one game. Add in that Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson‘s statuses are up in the air for this week and we should be looking to temper expectations for Tagovailoa this week.

Lamar Jackson: Jackson faces a tough on-paper matchup against the Dolphins’ pass defense. Over the last two years, they have ranked ninth and seventh in pass defense DVOA. They held passers to the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate and 12th-lowest yards per attempt last year. There’s an avenue for Jackson to have a ceiling game if he threads the needle just right. Miami also had the eighth-highest deep completion rate and play-action passing touchdown rate in 2021. Jackson is third in deep attempts this year with the sixth-highest play-action rate after Week 1. As the QB8 in Week 1, he was the ninth-highest graded passer per PFF, ranking second in big-time throw rate and first in aDOT. I lean on the side of Jackson shredding this defense in Week 2.

Running Backs

Week 1

Update: Austin Jackson (T) has been placed on the IR. This is a bump down for the offensive line this week for Miami. Chase Edmonds could see smaller running lanes and Tua Tagovailoa could see more pressure.

Chase Edmonds: Last week against this run defense Michael Carter turned his 17 touches into 100 total yards as the RB14. Chase Edmonds has similar upside this week as he did in Week 1. The offensive line’s health is a concern, no doubt. Edmonds established himself as the leader of this backfield in Week 1. He led the way in snaps and a 72.7% opportunity share (13th). His route participation is a tad low with 48.5%, but he was eighth in yards per route run with a 13.8% target share. Edmonds was 11th in breakaway run rate last year and now takes on a run defense that was seventh in yards after contact per attempt and tenth in the percentage of runs of ten or more yards allowed. His pass game role will come in handy against a team that was 30th in DVOA last year, giving up the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs.

Raheem Mostert: Mostert would be a high-end flex this week, but he doesn’t have a large enough share of the work after one week. He only garnered a 27.3% opportunity share but looked explosive on the field. He evaded four tackles on only six touches with 5.3 yards per touch (22nd). If you’re in a pickle because of injuries or looking for a warm body to plug in for a dynasty league, the path to upside on the ground is there for Mostert. The ability to rip a long run still exists for the South Beach speedster.

Week 1

Kenyan Drake: Drake is the only running back to consider from this backfield. Even looking at him for your fantasy lineups could induce gagging, though. Out of 31 running backs with at least ten carries in Week 1, Drake ranked 27th in yards after contact per attempt and 29th in PFF’s elusive rating. In case you’re wondering, these are not good numbers, especially when the workload is divided into three parts. Miami is 30th in open field yards after Week 1, which offers some hope for Drake. They allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also sitting at 15th in yards per attempt last year. It’s fair to wonder if Drake even has the juice left to take advantage of this matchup in Week 2, even if he retains the same role and J.K. Dobbins is out. I’ll look in other directions this week, even if I’m desperate.

J.K. Dobbins: We’ll need to continue to monitor J.K. Dobbins‘ practice reports throughout the week and the news wire to see if he suits up in Week 2. Update: If he’s active, I don’t think I can make the leap with Dobbins. I understand if you don’t have any other options as a dart throw flex, but outside of that I can’t get behind it.

Wide Receivers

Update: A look at the battered Baltimore secondary.

• Marlon Humphery didn’t practice on Friday (groin). He’s been listed as questionable.
• Marcus Peters is practicing, but this is his first game off injury (knee). He’s been listed as questionable.
• Kyle Fuller lost to a torn ACL.
• Brandon Stephens has missed the last two practices with a quad injury. He’s been listed as questionable.

The Ravens could be forced to start Jayln Armour-Davis or Damarion Williams assuming Peters is active. Armour-Davis is a fourth-round rookie who has only seen one target in the NFL, allowing it to be secured for 12 yards. Williams is another fourth-round rookie who has only seen one target in the NFL, allowing a 19-yard reception.

Tyreek Hill: Hill enjoyed a productive but modest start to his Dolphins’ career. He was the WR17 last week with 12 targets (41.4% target share, third) and 94 receiving yards. He proved he’s still got it with a 3.13 yards per route run mark (18th). He ran more routes on the outside (64.5%) than during much of his time in Kansas City. This means he’ll see Brandon Stephens and Marlon Humphrey for most of the day. If Tagovailoa has time in the pocket, Hill could be in for a big day. Stephens has allowed a 72.0% catch rate and 139.8 passer rating across his young career. For as good as he is, Humphrey excels at getting physical with opposing receivers. You have to catch Hill to put your hands on him. Humphrey could struggle against HIll’s blinding speed. Humphrey allowed a 62.5% catch rate and 80.2 passer rating last year.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle was right behind Hill as the WR19 in Week 1. With Hill soaking up the looks from Tagovailoa, Waddle’s target share was a lukewarm 17.2%. Recovering from a quad injury, Waddle only played 66.7% of the snaps with a 78.8% route participation mark. That didn’t stop Waddle from posting 2.65 yards per route run (26th). Waddle wasn’t targeted deep or in the red zone last week, so until we see this type of high value usage in a game we have to assume his touchdowns will need to come from big plays. After one game Baltimore is 19th in deep passing DVOA, so there’s opportunity for Waddle to hit a long play or turn a short area target into a big gain. Waddle operated outside on nearly 79% of his routes last week, so he’ll also see plenty of Stephens and Humphrey.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman led the wide receivers with a 17.2% target share which is encouraging, but it’s definitely not the number you were looking for when you drafted him. His 67% snap rate and 80% route participation were head scratchers with a team that isn’t exactly loaded with talent at the wide receiver position. I’m hoping both climb this week while I’m left grasping at straws for why they were even this low. Bateman’s 2.36 yards per route run illustrate his immense talent. He’ll run about 88% of his routes against Xavien Howard and Nik Needham. Howard allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating last year. Needham gave up a 72.2% catch rate and 81.4 passer rating. Bateman tied Devin Duvernay and Mark Andrews for the team lead with two deep targets last week.

Devin Duvernay: I won’t be starting Devin Duvernay this week and you shouldn’t either. Despite finishing last week as the WR9 on the strength of two touchdowns, his underlying usage is too sparse to start in Week 2. Duvernay played only 52% of the snaps with a 14.3% target share and 60% route participation mark. These are too low to trust Duvernay in your lineups despite his big day in the opening Sunday. Duvernay will run about 66% of his routes against Howard and Needham.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: Since we’re talking about trap plays, let’s discuss Mike Gesicki. The matchup against Baltimore is delightful. The Ravens were second in receptions, third in receiving yards and sixth in receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends last year. Gesicki would be primed for a big day if he saw the field enough. Last week he only saw one target while playing a paltry 41% of the snaps and a 39.4% route participation. If volume is king, Mike McDaniels stole Gesicki’s crown.

Mark Andrews: Despite a “down” game for Mark Andrews, he finished as the TE12 in Week 1. Mark Andrews left Week 1 third in target share (25.0%), first in route participation, and ninth in snap share among tight ends. Andrews should post a huge state line in Week 2. Last year Miami was 30th in DVOA against the position, ranking tenth in receiving yards and 13th in receiving touchdowns allowed.

Isaiah Likely: LIkely is paddling around in a thin usage canoe with Mike Gesicki. In Week 1, he only played 45% of the snaps with a 56% route participation finish. He saw a 14.3% target share and one red zone target in Week 1. With these types of numbers, I can’t start you even if the matchup is glorious.

Check out my DFS advice for this contest and all games

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions

• DET, -1.5, O/U 48.5
• Commanders at Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Commanders News – Injury Reports
• Lions News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz: Sweet Christmas. Wentz was the QB3 in fantasy in Week 1. Yes, you read that correctly. No, it wasn’t a typo. Wentz chucked the pigskin for 313 yards with four passing scores. Wentz walks away from Week 1ee seventh in catchable pass rate and 14th in clean pocket accuracy. Carson Wentz could realistically stack back-to-back top five games to open this year. Detroit was 27th in pass defense DVOA last year, allowing the 13th highest adjusted completion rate and second-highest yards per attempt. They specifically struggled against play-action passing which is a Wentz staple. Detroit permitted the fifth-highest play-action yards per attempt and second-highest play-action passer rating last year. Wentz led the NFL in play-action passing attempts in Week 1. Jalen Hurts logged a 90.9% adjusted completion rate on play-action throws in Week 1.

Jared Goff: Washington was 28th in pass defense DVOA last year, allowing the most fantasy points per game and passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. While they could be improved this year as they sit 17th in DVOA after one game, a middle-of-the-road passing defense isn’t a reason to knock Jared Goff out of your Superflex lineups as a solid QB2. Goff executed a very “Goff-like” box score in Week 1 with 215 passing yards (5.8 yards per attempt) and two passing touchdowns as the QB18 in fantasy. After ranking 17th in DVOA against short passing last season, Washington sits at 26th after Week 1. Another feather in Goff’s cap could be Washington’s blitz rate which was the fourth-highest in the NFL last week. In 2021 Goff was tenth in blitz completion rate and 12th in passer rating against the blitz (minimum 200 dropbacks).

Running Backs

Antonio Gibson: Gibson went wild in Week 1 with 21 touches and 130 total yards as the RB10 for the week. Gibson played 63% of the snaps in Week 1, logging 48.8% route participation (21st). He was second in yards per route run and 13th in yards per touch with a 19.5% target share (fifth-highest). This week could be more of the same against a Detroit defense that looks like it will be bottom of the barrel against the run again in 2022. The Lions were 30th and 27th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards last year. After one game, they are 25th or worse in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. They allowed the third-most rushing yards and most fantasy points to the Eagles backfield in Week 1. Gibson should have no issues carving up a defense that was 31st in DVOA against receiving backs last year and 23rd in explosive run rate after Week 10.

J.D. McKissic: Washington led most of the game in Week 1, so I don’t want to get lulled into a false sense of security with Antonio Gibson. It’s possible the same script can play out here in Week 2. If the spread is accurate, we could see a close game where Gibson is involved throughout. This helps to quell McKissic fears. I’m projecting McKissic to see a similar workload to Week 1, where he played 44% of snaps, saw a 21.4% opportunity share, and will likely end up with 5-10 touches.

Week 1

D’Andre Swift: Well, I discussed not overreacting to a one-week sample, but the Washington run defense we saw last year could be out the window. Last season they allowed the lowest yards after contact per attempt in the NFL while also boasting the ninth lowest yards per attempt and eighth-lowest explosive run rate. In Week 1, James Robinson and Travis Etienne exploded for 111 rushing yards on 15 carries. This has left Washington bottom three in every line metric I look at. Now D’Andre Swift and the Lions’ offensive line roll into town. Swift running behind the Detroit offensive line (top seven in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards) destroyed the Eagles for 144 yards on 15 carries. Swift currently sits at fourth in breakaway run rate, eighth in evaded tackles, and 16th in yards per route run. Washington was 21st in DVOA against receiving backs last year, ranking 14th in receptions and first in receiving touchdowns allowed. Swift is a locked-in top ten running back in Week 2. Update: Swift has been listed as questionable. If Swift is active I’m treating him like a full-go. If he’s out, Jamaal Williams is a low-end RB2.

Update: Frank Ragnow (center) is out. This is a small bump down for Goff if the blitz can get home and the run game if they can’t hold the middle.

Jamaal Williams: Williams is the entertaining thorn in Swift’s side. Williams is a lock for double-digit touches weekly with high-end flex appeal. The big thing that sticks out about Williams is the seven red zone opps in Week 1. His 32% snap share and 41% opportunity share aren’t great. Still, if he’s going to log goal-line opportunities weekly, it’ll hurt Swift and elevate Williams into fantasy relevancy as it did in Week 1, where he was the RB16 with only 12 touches and 30 total yards. The touchdowns won’t be there weekly, but when they are, he’s a top 36 option that could easily stack multiple top 24 weeks if this offense is as good this year as it can be.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: This is a beautiful flop lag spot for Terry McLaurin. Don’t forget that McLaurin is that guy. He was 17th in total route wins last year and 25th in yards per route run. One game with a 9.8% target share doesn’t mean he’s lost anything. McLaurin led the team in deep targets last year and now faces a secondary that was sixth in deep completion rate and first in deep receiving yards last season. McLaurin will see Jeffrey Okudah and Amani Oruwariye on about 79% of his routes this week. Okudah has allowed a 75.9% catch rate (58 targets) and 119.7 passer rating in his career. Oruwariye gave up a 59.4% catch rate and 60.2 passer rating last year.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel was a major surprise from Week 1. As Dollar Store Deebo Samuel, he played 71% of the snaps (67% slot) with a 26.8% target share (11 targets) and four rushing attempts. He parlayed this usage into a WR13 finish in Week 1. Samuel will need the multi-faceted work and heavy volume to continue to pay off in fantasy with his 1.0 aDOT. Samuel should be considered a strong flex play in Week 2. When he’s not in the backfield, he’ll line up against Mike Hughes, who allowed a 61.3% catch rate and 112.2 passer rating last year.

Jahan Dotson: Dotson didn’t stay quiet for long this season. He secured three of his five targets in Week 1 for 40 receiving yards and two scores as the WR17 in fantasy. Dotson’s 95% route participation and 90% snap share, and two deep targets (team lead) are the positives. The negative is that he only finished with a 12.2% target share and a 12.8% target per route rate in his first game. While the target shares in this offense could fluctuate week-to-week, Dotson projects no higher than third in the pecking order of a Carson Wentz-led offense. Against a team that is as dreadful against deep passing as Detroit is, Dotson could easily outproduce Samuel this week, but it’s not a given. Dotson is your guy if you need a massive ceiling in your flex while understanding the floor is incredibly low this week. He’ll run about 72% of his routes against Okudah and Oruwariye this week.

Update: Somehow, Dotson is still under 50% rostered (40%) in leagues. If you are looking for an upside flex or wide receiver play, grab him now. I agree with my dude Tom Strachan with the Dotson call out as a weekend waiver wire stash.

Update: Amani Oruwariye has been listed as questionable with a back ailment. He had a limited session on Thursday before missing Friday. If Oruwariye misses Will Harris will start. Last year Harris allowed a 73.8% catch rate and 122.0 passer rating in coverage. If this happens then McLaurin to the moon and Dotson likely stows away on the fantasy rocketship.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Last week was the seventh WR1 game for Amon-Ra St. Brown in his last eight games dating back to last season. We all remember the tear he closed last season on. Well, we could be in for an encore in 2022. St. Brown saw a 32.4% target share (ninth) in Week 1, with a 35.3% target per route run rate (12th). His 1.78 yards per route run and 4.0 YAC per reception are also solid (not spectacular) numbers. This week he’ll match up with Washington’s new slot corner Benjamin St.-Juste who allowed a 64.9% catch rate and 114.5 passer rating in his rookie season. Fire up St. Brown as a top 24 wide receiver this week.

D.J. Chark: Chark opened the season in a surprising fashion as the WR22 in fantasy. Much of that is due to getting in the endzone as his target per route run rate (22.6%, 46th) and yards per route run (1.49, 50th) are more in line with his career numbers. Chark saw a 21.6% target share last week with 40.9% of the team’s air yards. Chark is a WR4 this week as he’ll run about 97% of his routes against William Jackson and Kendall Fuller. Jackson allowed a 58.5% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating last year. Fuller gave up a 67.0% catch rate and 90.1 passer rating.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson wasn’t able to take advantage of a plus matchup last week as other Lions feasted around him. Detroit will have staples in production, but this offense is loaded with talented, skill players, so it could be a roulette wheel for other options. Hockenson did see the seventh-highest target share (18.9%) among tight ends last week. If he had secured his only red zone target, he would have landed inside the top 12 of the position, and this wouldn’t be a conversation. Washington was eighth in DVOA last year against tight ends facing the tenth-most tight end targets. They allowed the ninth-most receiving yards.

Logan Thomas: Thomas was eased back in coming off a major injury. He played 62% of the snaps with a 63% route participation. Thomas saw a 14.6% target share (12th) while ranking 16th in target per route run rate in Week 1. His high leverage targets were a welcome sight as he garnered two deep targets and a red zone look. With the fifth-highest aDOT of the position, he finished with 1.73 yards per route run (13th-best). Thomas could see a snap bump against a favorable matchup in Week 2. Last year Detroit was 29th in DVOA, ranking fifth in reception and second in receiving yards allowed. If he’s on the waiver wire anywhere, pick him up, he’s got a good shot to finish inside the top 12 this week.

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