Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pace and playcalling notes
- The play volume in this game should be solid, but I doubt it’s outstanding. Arizona was tenth in neutral pace last year, but Kansas City was only 18th.
- While the overall number of plays might be average, there should be passing galore here. Last season Kansas City was third in neutral passing rate while the Cardinals were ranked 14th. In the eight games, Arizona played last year with an over/under set at 49 points or higher, the Cardinals’ neutral passing rate climbed by nearly 3% (56.9 vs. 59.8).
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: No Tyreek Hill. No problem. Week 1 will be bombs away for Patrick Mahomes against the Cardinals secondary. Mahomes was fourth in deep attempts last year. Arizona couldn’t stop anyone when they decided to go downfield last year, and their secondary wasn’t massively improved in the offseason. Arizona allowed the highest deep completion rate and deep passer rating last year while also ranking second in deep passing touchdowns. Don’t rule out Mahomes and Andy Reid making this a statement game in Week 1.
Kyler Murray: This game could be a heavyweight slugfest for the ages.
“Mahomes vs. Murray. Go deep or go home.”
Kyler Murray was eighth in deep attempts last year while stating his case as the most accurate downfield passer in the NFL. He finished the season first and third in deep completion rate and deep accuracy rating. Why does this matter? Kansas City was fourth in deep passing yards and seventh in deep passing touchdowns allowed last season. When Murray isn’t heaving the rock to the heavens, he should find success running all over the place. The Chiefs were also sixth in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks while surrendering the most rushing scores. Two quarterbacks enter. Only one departs as the QB1 overall for the week.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: If Mahomes doesn’t go nuclear this week, it’s because Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran wild. Yes, you read that right. Edwards-Helaire’s sophomore season was wrecked by off-season gall bladder surgery which caused him to lose a ton of weight. Now back to full health, he should more closely resemble the back we saw in his rookie season. That first year he was 17th in evaded tackles, 12th in breakaway runs, and 29th in yards created per touch. The Cardinals were a disaster last season attempting to stop running backs. They were 31st and 27th in second-level and open field yards. Arizona ranked seventh and third in yards per carry and yards after contact per attempt. Losing Jordan Phillips and Jordan Hicks in the offseason can’t help these numbers, either.
Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco: Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco were factoring in on passing downs in the preseason. McKinnon likely takes over the role in the regular season. Without knowing how much he’ll factor and with such an outstanding rushing matchup on deck, it’s impossible to play McKinnon with any confidence. Arizona was 11th in receptions and 10th in receiving yards allowed to running backs last year, but they only gave up one receiving touchdown.
James Conner: James Conner was shelved all preseason. That should allay fears of him splitting work, especially in the early going. That’s undisputed starter treatment from the Cardinals. In Weeks 9-14, he never played less than 77% of the snaps averaging 21.8 touches and 114.4 total yards per game. He was the RB2 in fantasy behind only Jonathan Taylor in that five-game span. This is a similar story as with Edwards-Helaire. If Murray disappoints, it’s because Conner went nuts. Kansas City was 27th and 29th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards last year. They also allowed the second-highest yards per attempt while sitting at 26th in DVOA against receiving backs. Last season Arizona was eighth in red zone rushing rate. Kansas City was 25th in red zone rushing defense. Conner could be headed for a multiple-touchdown game.
Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams: With multiple camp reports regarding Kliff Kingsbury’s love for Eno Benjamin and beat writer suggesting Darrel Williams could be the RB2, it’s impossible to know at this point without any regular season usage to go off. Benjamin was utilized more in the preseason, which should lead us to believe it’s Williams, but neither player can grace your lineup in Week 1 without clarity.
Wide Receivers
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman: JuJu Smith-Schuster is a perfect example where the fantasy industry’s love for a player and their performance doesn’t correlate. Smith-Schuster has seen his yards per route run and YAC per reception number decline in each of the past four seasons. Despite volume propping up his 2020 fantasy season, deeper efficiency metrics show that he has not been a good NFL player. Since 2019 Smith-Schuster has ranked 60th, 85th, and 126th in yards per route run among wideouts with at least 20 targets. He faces a Cardinals’ secondary that, while bad last year overall, they were excellent against slot receivers. That’s because of Byron Murphy. Arizona held slot wideouts to the seventh-lowest receiving yards per game. Excluding the weeks where Murphy had to attempt to cover Cooper Kupp last year, he allowed a 68.2% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating.
Update: Trayvon Mullen has been ruled out for Arizona.
The long-standing rule with Marquez Valdes-Scantling is “if the team is bad against deep passing…play MVS”. The Cardinals stink against the deep ball. Fire up Valdes-Scantling as an upside flex if you need a sky-high ceiling this week. Last year he was 39th out of 70 wide receivers in deep receiving grades per PFF (minimum ten deep targets), with 44.9% of his targets coming downfield (the highest mark for any wide receiver in this sample). In 2020 he was sixth in deep receiving yards and third in deep receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Valdes-Scantling will match up with Marco Wilson and either rookie Christian Matthew or Javelin Guidry this week. Wilson was beyond terrible last season with a 73.2% catch rate, 134.1 passer rating, and a whopping eight receiving touchdowns surrendered. Guidry wasn’t any better giving up a 71,8% catch rate and 114.0 passer rating last season.
Mecole Hardman or Skyy Moore could be the WR3 on the field with Mahomes this week, or they could rotate. Until we get more information, both players should be parked on your bench.
Marquise Brown: Marquise Brown should be Kyler Murray‘s number one option until DeAndre Hopkins returns. Brown saw the 12th-highest target share last year and 11th-most air yards last season among wide receivers. Brown ranked eighth in route win rate and ninth in win rate against man coverage finishing as the WR21 in fantasy points per game. After sitting at eighth in deep targets in the NFL last season, he should be Murray’s go-to for deep balls. Brown will line up opposite Rashad Fenton and rookie Trent McDuffie this week. Fenton gave up a 69.2% catch rate and 91.2 passer rating in 2021. Expect Brown to challenge the rookie immediately to see if he’s up to the task of hanging with him all game.
Rondale Moore: Rondale Moore could also play large in this game. Moore disappointed if you were expecting him to live up to the hype as the WR63 in fantasy points per game last year. All hope isn’t lost, though. Moore was 28th in route win rate last year. With his 1.3 aDOT, he ranked seventh in YAC per reception and 13th in missed tackles forced (minimum 20 targets). This could be a matchup for Murray to exploit with his speedy slot receiver. Kansas City allowed the most YAC in the league last season. They also finished 14th in slot yards per game and 13th in slot fantasy points per game allowed. Moore will see L’Jarius Sneed in slot coverage. Sneed gave up a 75% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating last season.
Update: With Rondale Moore out and Zach Ertz banged up, expect James Conner and Marquise Brown’s median and ceiling target share expectations to rise.
Greg Dortch and A.J. Green: Greg Dortch will likely start from the slot for Arizona in Week 1. Dortch played quite well in the preseason this year. He was targeted on 26.6% of his routes while playing from the slot on 92.8% of his snaps. Among 70 wide receivers with ten or more targets this preseason he was 30th in yards per route run (1.82) and ranked 13th in YAC per reception. Dortch will see L’Jarius Sneed in slot coverage. Sneed gave up a 75% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating last season. A.J. Green made a surprising return to Arizona, but that doesn’t mean he should return to your fantasy lineup anytime soon. Green looked like a receiver on his last legs limping to a WR42 finish. He was 48th in yards per route run and outside the top 80 receivers in route win rate and win rate against man coverage.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Let’s keep this simple. If you drafted Travis Kelce, you are starting him. It’s as easy as that. I will say, though, that with the Cardinals having multiple issues on the defensive front, this isn’t a game where Kelce has to post a monster game for the Chiefs to win. Kelce was the TE2 in fantasy points per game last year, ranking sixth in yards per route run and first in YAC. The Cardinals were tough on tight ends last year, ranking second in DVOA with the fourth-lowest receiving yards and fewest receiving touchdowns.
Zach Ertz and Trey McBride: Zach Ertz could easily miss this game as he’s dealing with a calf injury. Last season without Hopkins in the lineup (Weeks 9-11, 15-18), Ertz saw a 23.7% target share and finished as a top ten tight end in 71.4% of his games. After being left for dead during last year’s draft season, Ertz showed plenty left in the tank, ranking ninth in yards per route run and fantasy points per route run.
If Ertz is out, Trey McBride becomes a viable every-down streaming option in a high total game. Kansas City was a middle-of-the-road defense against the position last season, ranking 17th in DVOA, 16th in receptions, and 15th in receiving yards allowed. If McBride doesn’t tickle your fancy for tight-end streaming, check out our Week 1 waiver wire article for another plug-and-play target.
Update: Zach Ertz has been listed as questionable. I think he’s closer to a game-time decision, so have a streaming option waiting in the wings for Week 1.
My DFS Plays
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pace and playcalling notes
- This should be the fastest paced game on this week’s slate with the most passing volume. Last year before the Raiders offense cratered (Weeks 1-9) they were seventh and third in neutral pace and passing rate. The Chargers blazed a trail all year sitting at second and fourth in neutral pace and passing rate.
- Los Angeles led the NFL in red zone passing rate in 2021.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: Derek Carr was less than stellar against the Bolts last year. During their two clashes he finished the week as the QB24 and QB18 in fantasy scoring. Los Angeles was 14th in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns allowed last year and they have made sizable upgrades this offseason. Even with J.C. Jackson missing this game this secondary is still talented. The Bolts were 12th in pressure rate last year which should increase with Khalil Mack helping Joey Bosa collapse the pocket. Carr should still be able to deliver an accurate ball to his skill players as he was eighth in pressured yards per attempt and sixth in pressured completion rate last year. Carr is a high-end QB2 this week with low-end QB1 upside.
Justin Herbert: Last year against the Raiders zone-heavy pass defense he finished as the QB12 and QB2 in fantasy scoring in their two meetings. This was fueled by three touchdown tosses in each game. His peripherals with a 57.8% completion rate and 5.9 yards per attempt were more ghastly. That doesn’t mean Herbert can’t post solid stats here as he was seventh and 18th last year in completion rate and passer rating against zone. With the Raiders projecting to be zone heavy and the total reflecting a possible shootout, Herbert should carry his usual ceiling in Week 1. Las Vegas 27th in DVOA against short passing last year. The Raiders were also 14th in adjusted completion rate and fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. With losses in the Las Vegas secondary in the offseason Herbert should post better numbers against Raider Nation in 2022.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs: Yes, it’s a different coaching staff in Las Vegas, but the attack plan could be similar to Week 18 last year. Josh Jacobs toted the rock 26 times in that game for 132 yards on the ground. The Raider offensive line doesn’t project to be much improved (if any) from last year’s, where they ranked 17th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards, but lucky for them, the Bolts’ run defense might still struggle. Sebastian Joseph-Day is the only above-average run defender they added along the defensive line this offseason. This means we could see a similar run defense in 2022 that allowed the third-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns last season. The Chargers were eighth in yards after contact per attempt and fifth in yards per attempt. Jacobs was 18th in juke rate and seventh in evaded tackles last season.
Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden: White could work in tandem with Jacobs or simply be his early down handcuff. Without knowing which, he’s unstartable this week. Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden are slated to be the pass-catching compliments to Jacobs this season. This isn’t the matchup to run either out there this week. Last year Los Angeles was eighth in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the fourth-fewest receptions and second-fewest receiving yards.
Austin Ekeler: Get off the couch. It’s time to stretch. We’re rocking out with the air guitar this week. Austin Ekeler conjured sweet emotion last year against the Raiders. He averaged 19.5 touches, 122 total yards and two scores. He was the RB3 and RB1 in those weeks. Las Vegas was 22nd in open field yards last year. Running backs in the passing game screamed “we are the champions” against this defense. Las Vegas was 25th in DVOA ranking seventh in receptions and third in receiving touchdowns. Ekeler is a top-five option this week.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow: Derek Carr doesn’t have to be Aaron Rodgers for Davante Adams to do his thing. Adams might be 29 years old, but he’s shown no signs of falling off. Last year he was the WR2 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in yards per route run. He was top 20 in win rate overall and against man coverage. He’ll see Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr. for most of the day. Davis allowed a 55.0% catch rate and 97.4 passer rating last year. Samuel was also beatable with a 67.9% catch rate and a 101.0 passer rating in coverage.
Last season Hunter Renfrow emerged once Darren Waller went down. He finished as the WR16 in fantasy points per game. With Waller on the field, he averaged 7.4 targets, 55.7 receiving yards, and 14.9 PPR points per game. That per-game scoring mark would have placed him as the WR20 last year. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Bryce Callahan who surrendered a 66.6% catch rate and 102.0 passer rating last season. With Waller and Adams now, Renfrow is best viewed as a WR3 with upside weekly.
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams: Keenan Allen continued his steady top 13 fantasy wide receiver production for the fifth straight season as the WR11 in fantasy points per game. While he was top 20 in targets, target share (15th), and route win rate (16th), Allen looks like a wide receiver that’s starting to show his age. His yards per route run have declined in each of the last five seasons. He also registered the lowest YAC per reception of his career. This week he should have no issues trumping Amik Robertson in the slot on nearly 65% of his routes. Robertson allowed a 76.5% catch rate and 135.5 passer rating last year.
Mike Williams is ready to take the mantle from Allen as the king of the Chargers’ passing attack. Last year we saw this possibly coming to fruition before injury struck. In Weeks 1-5, Williams was 16th in target share and 15th in weighted opportunity as the WR3 in fantasy. Against Patrick Graham’s zone-centric scheme, he should feast in Week 1. Last year Graham had his outside corners operating in zone on 63-65% of their snaps. Williams was 16th in yards per route run (Allen, 39th) against zone last year (minimum 20 targets). He’ll line up against Nate Hobbs and Rock Ya-Sin on nearly 82% of his routes. Hobbs allowed opposing receivers to secure 82.5% of their targets last year with a 94.3 passer rating. Ya-Sin limited the catch rate to 56.5%, but he still gave up a 93.4 passer rating in coverage.
Joshua Palmer: Joshua Palmer assumes a full-time starting role this season. Last year he only logged three games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps. In those weeks, he finished as the WR16, WR21, and WR32. His peripherals aren’t as kind as those fantasy finishes. Palmer was 76th in target per route run rate and outside the top 72 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate. With a fully healthy depth chart and numerous players in advantageous situations this week, Palmer is likely the fourth or fifth option in the pecking order. He’ll run most of his routes against Hobbs and Ya-Sin.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: Darren Waller dealt with injury last year, limiting him to 11 games played. Waller has been injured for much of camp, but he’s expected to play in this game. Last year he was the TE6 in fantasy points per game, still flashing his extreme athleticism. He was third in target share and deep targets while maintaining a big red zone role (tenth in targets). With Adams on the roster, it’s worth questioning what Waller’s volume and red zone volume will look like this year. The Chargers are a great matchup for Waller to exploit in Week 1. They were 23rd in DVOA last season with the most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns conceded to tight ends.
Gerald Everett: Gerald Everett needs to be on your radar if you’re streaming tight ends. Last year Los Angeles was second in red zone scoring attempts per game. Everett was 13th in yards per target and 12th in fantasy points per target in 2021. In Weeks 10-18, he was the TE12 in fantasy points per game. This week he gets a cakewalk scenario against a Raiders team that was eighth in receiving yards, ninth in receptions, and third in receiving touchdowns given up to tight ends.
My DFS Plays
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pace and playcalling notes
- This contest should give the Chargers and Raiders a run for their money regarding play volume. Last year Dallas led the league in neutral script pace while the Buccaneers sat at fifth.
- This should be the most-pass-heavy game by far. Last season The Buccaneers were first in neutral script passing rate while also finishing at third once they reached the 20-yard line. Dallas was fifth in neutral passing rate.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady: Last year the Cowboys were second in pass defense DVOA yielding the third-lowest adjusted completion rate and 17th ranked yards per attempt. That didn’t stop Brady from shredding them Week 1 with 379 passing yards and four scores. Brady could do it again this year. For as good as Dallas was last year they were vulnerable to play-action passing. They were 13th in play-action completion rate and touchdown rate allowed. Brady was fourth in play-action passing touchdown rate and seventh in play-action passer rating last season.
Dak Prescott: During last year’s Week 1 meeting Kellen Moore dialed up passing plays on 80.8% of their neutral script plays which can’t be dismissed this week. Prescott ended up slinging the ball 58 times for 403 yards with three passing touchdowns. That could easily be the plan of attack again this season. The concern with no Tyron Smith is real against the Buccaneers who were second in pressure rate last season, but Prescott was also excellent against pressure. He ranked seventh in pressured completion rate and tenth in pressured accuracy rating. Tampa Bay finished the year tenth in pass defense DVOA giving up the second-lowest yards per attempt. They did however yield the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette: Word out of the Bucs camp is the team would like to lighten Leonard Fournette‘s workload some this season. While that can be true, he’ll still be the clear lead back for the Buccaneers. In Weeks 4-14, Leonard Fournette played less than 61% of the team’s snaps in only two games. Over that stretch, he averaged 19.7 touches and 103 total yards per game as the RB5 in fantasy. Fournette was also fantastic in the passing game. In that sample, he led all running backs in targets (63) and was fourth in receiving yards (344).
Dallas was a middling rush defense last year, ranking 19th in second-level and 18th in open-field yards. They faced the seventh-fewest rushing attempts last year but yielded the tenth-highest yards per attempt while sitting at 21st in explosive run rate. They were 30th in red zone run defense. Fournette can and will have to do most of his damage in the rushing department because the Cowboys were first in DVOA against running backs. They were 17th in receptions but held opposing backs to the tenth-fewest receiving yard and fourth-fewest receiving touchdowns.
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard:
Weeks 1-3
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a down season where some of this could be related to the fact he dealt with a partially torn PCL for much of the season (since Week 4). Elliott has amassed 1,938 touches (22 per game) over his six-year career, never handling less than 268 touches in any season, so the worry about tread left on the tires is real. Elliott finished last year as the RB15 in fantasy points per game. His efficiency was dreadful last season, ranking 30th in yards per route run, 45th in breakaway run rate, and 37th in yards created per touch. The Buccaneers were still fifth in adjusted line yards while permitting the fewest rushing yards in the NFL last year. They did show some cracks in the pavement, ranking 26th in open field yards and 29th in explosive run rate. In the first three games of last season before Elliott’s injury, he was the leader of the backfield in every sense. He’s a top 24 running back play on projected red zone role alone this week.
Tony Pollard is coming off a career-high in rushing attempts (130) and targets (46). Pollard was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. Last season he was fourth in yards after contact per attempt behind only Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor (minimum 100 carries, per PFF). He was also first in yards per route run at the position. Pollard is more apt to take advantage of the Buccaneers through the air than Elliott. Tampa Bay was 22nd in DVOA against running backs last year, yielding a ton of production through the air. They saw the second-most running back targets surrendering the second-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards, and fourth-most receiving touchdowns. Pollard and Elliott can both finish as top 24 backs this week but get to the finish line in very different ways. In Weeks 1-3 last year, Pollard was lined up in the slot or out wide on 37.8% of his snaps. Given his explosive abilities as a playmaker and Tampa Bay’s struggles, Moore could deploy him heavily.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans: Mike Evans‘ consistency in fantasy football is astounding. Over the last eight seasons, he’s hit 1,000 or more every year. He’s finished as a top 20 wide receiver in weekly fantasy scoring in every season but one. Last season he ranked 11th in red-zone targets and second in total touchdowns at the receiver position while his per route metrics began to slip. He was 49th in yard per route run and 88th in route win rate last year. Mike Evans was muted during their Week 1 meeting last year securing three of his six targets for 24 receiving yards. This was due to Trevon Diggs following him on 81% of his routes, limiting him to three targets, one reception, and ten receiving yards. Moving Evans into the slot is an option that the Buccaneers used in many weeks last year to relieve him of shadow corners. Diggs only moved inside on 8.3% of snaps last year. Diggs allowed a 56.4% catch rate and 70.1 passer rating last year.
Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Chris Godwin:
Currently it sounds doubtful we’ll see Chris Godwin in Week 1. Even if he’s active it’ll likely be a limited role, so you shouldn’t be starting him this week. This means Julio Jones and Russell Gage will be Brady’s main weapons outside of Evans.
Julio Jones might not be the same player he was during his prime, but he’s definitely not washed up. Last year Jones ranked 25th out of 90 wide receivers (minimum 50 targets) in yards per route run (1.84). For added context, this was immediately ahead of Stefon Diggs and Diontae Johnson. Yes, this was also his career’s lowest yards per route run, but even a watered-down version of Jones isn’t a scrub. Jones will operate outside on about 86% of his routes. If Diggs is in Evans’ back pocket then he’ll see more Anthony Brown. Brown allowed a 57.7% catch rate and 82.9 passer rating. That passer rating was aided greatly by his four interceptions as he allowed six receiving touchdowns (tied for eighth-most among cornerbacks).
Russell Gage is a talented player that Brady could lean on this week. He was 17th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) and 12th in route win rate last season. He was the WR31 in fantasy points per game last year proving he could be a leading target for an offense last year after Calvin Ridley was out. He’ll likely run out of the slot for at least half of his snaps against Jourdan Lewis. Lewis last year allowed a 65.5% catch rate and 81.8 passer rating.
CeeDee Lamb: Queue up the band. CeeDee Lamb‘s breakout party is about to begin. Last season Lamb was 13th in yards per route run in the regular season (minimum 50) while excelling as a bully after the catch. He was fifth in missed tackles forced among wide receivers. He was peppered in Week 1 last year with 15 targets for seven receptions and 104 receiving yards (one touchdown) as the WR13 for the week. The team moved him into the slot on 40.7% of his snaps which could happen this week. That means Lamb will see one of my favorite corners to pick on in fantasy for nearly half of his routes, Sean Murphy-Bunting. Murphy-Bunting allowed a 67.2% catch rate and 110.4 passer rating last year. When Lamb is outside, he’ll match up with a combination of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean. Davis gave up a 55.1% catch rate and 80.9 passer rating last year. Dean was even more impressive with a 52.4% catch rate surrendered and a 62.3 passer rating in coverage.
Jalen Tolbert and Noah Brown: Despite Grandpa Jerry’s musings, I doubt that Michael Gallup is active in Week 1, so that leaves Noah Brown and Jalen Tolbert flanking CeeDee Lamb. Brown might be a solid NFL player, but there’s no way a player with a career 1.15 yards per route run is gracing my Week 1 fantasy lineup even in dynasty formats. No, thank you.
Jalen Tolbert dominated at South Alabama with a 96th percentile college dominator and 95th percentile target share (33.4%). Over his final two collegiate seasons, he was seventh and sixth in receiving yards among all FBS wideouts. As good as Tolbert is, running nearly all of your routes against Davis and Dean is a tall task in your first NFL game.
Update: Michael Gallup has been ruled out for Week 1.
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph: Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph likely split routes and snaps this week, so neither is anything more than a deep league dart. Brate is the one to consider if going in this direction. Last year he was fourth among tight ends in red zone targets. If he snags a touchdown and does little else, he’s likely a top 15 tight end for the week. Dallas ranked 13th in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns allowed last year.
Dalton Schultz: Last year Dalton Schultz was the TE5 in weekly fantasy scoring. In his first season with a featured role, he ranked 11th in yards per route run and 14th in targets per snap. With teams looking to avoid Tampa Bay’s corners last year, the Buccaneers faced the ninth-most tight end targets allowing the sixth-most receptions. Tampa Bay utilized zone between 63-67% with their outside corners last year. Why does it matter for Schultz? Heavy zone defense = Schultz eats. Last year among all tight ends with at least ten zone targets, he was seventh in yards per route run against zone. He saw 64.8% of his target volume against zone, which was the third-highest mark in this sample.
My DFS Plays
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pace and playcalling notes
- If Nathaniel Hackett’s history in Green Bay is any insight into his playcalling tendencies in Denver, the Broncos could pass a healthy amount, but their pace could be disgusting. Over the last three seasons, the Packers were 32nd in neutral pace and 11th in passing rate in close games.
- Seattle was seventh in neutral pace last season, but they were 17th in passing rate. In Geno Smith‘s three starts last year, the Seahawks operated at 27.7 seconds per snap and passed the ball on 55.3% of their plays when the score was within eight points. That would have ranked them at 14th and 20th in neutral pace and passing rate for the entire year.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: Let’s Ride. Sorry, I know this joke is played out. I’m sorry I couldn’t help myself. Russell Wilson will be riding into your good graces this week against his former team in Week 1. Dang, it. I did it again. He’ll be stacking up fantasy points against the Seahawks that ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA last year, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in yards per attempt allowed. Nathaniel Hackett coordinated an offense last year that led Aaron Rodgers to rank 14th in play-action passing attempts last year. This will be pivotal against a pass defense that was ninth in play-action yards per attempt in 2021.
Geno Smith: Geno Smith quietly played well last year when he was the Seahawks’ starter. He was the 16th highest graded passer per PFF while also sitting at third in big-time throw rate and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). While no one is starting Smith this week outside of psychotic 16-team leagues, this does offer some hope. Denver was 20th in pass defense DVOA last year with the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and fifth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed.
Running Backs
Last season with both backs active
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon: Yeah, that is about as even a split as you can possibly get in the NFL for running back work. The matchup for both backs on the ground is brutal. Last year, Seattle was top eight in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. They had the lowest explosive run rate allowed last year. That said, they were surprisingly soft in the red zone, ranking 20th in run defense inside the 20. On talent alone, Javonte Williams would be considered matchup-proof if he had the backfield to himself after ranking top ten last year in yards created per touch, evaded tackles, and juke rate. Melvin Gordon is also no slouch, ranking ninth in juke rate, seventh in evaded tackles, and 26th in yards created per touch last season.
While both backs are good bets for double-digit touches and red zone work, the plausible ceiling for either has to come via the passing game. Williams should get the nod here as he bested Gordon in yards per route run while also ranking 30th in PFF receiving grade (minimum 20 targets). Seattle was historically bad against running backs in the passing game last year. They were 32nd in DVOA with the most targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to the position. To put this in further context, you have to go back to 2007 (Detroit Lions) to find another team that allowed over 1,000 receiving yards to running backs in a single season (2021 SEA, 1,106).
Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker: Rashaad Penny was excellent to close 2021. In Weeks 14-18, he averaged 18.4 rushing attempts and 134.2 rushing yards per game as the RB1 in fantasy football. He only ran a route on 32.2% (per PFF) of Russell Wilson‘s dropbacks last year, so don’t expect much from him in the receiving game despite the fact that Denver was 25th in DVOA last year. The Broncos were 24th and 14th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards last year, but they limited big plays well. They were eighth in open field yards and 10th in explosive run rate allowed. Currently, it sounds like Ken Walker won’t be suiting up this week. If he does, expect him to be limited and unstartable.
Update: Ken Walker missed Friday’s practice. I doubt he plays this week.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy: Courtland Sutton has been discussed all offseason as Russell Wilson‘s go-to wide receiver in camp. Now it’s time to show off the rapport. Sutton struggled through bad quarterback play and came off an ACL injury last year as the WR51 in fantasy points per game. His yards per route run and route win rate were outside the top 60 wide receivers. With improved quarterback play and another year of health, the hope is that he reclaims the promise he flashed in 2019. That season he was 12th in yards per route run and seventh in yards per route run when targeted deep. Last season Seattle was fifth in DVOA against deep passing, so Sutton’s field-stretching skill (sixth in deep targets last year) won’t be needed.
Jerry Jeudy played from the slot on 76% of his snaps last season. He showed improvement last year, ranking 27th in yards per route run, but he has never been a high target earner. He’s finished 35th and 30th in targets per route run in his first two seasons. Wilson could focus more on Jeudy this week against a team that was 31st against short passing last year. He’ll see Justin Coleman in coverage from the slot, which allowed a 69.4% catch rate and 67.6 passer rating last year.
K.J. Hamler: K.J. Hamler should rotate between the slot and outside this week. Coming off a tough season-ending injury last year and with the Broncos’ usage of 12 personnel up in the air, Hamler might not be a full-time player in his first game back. This isn’t the week to consider him for your lineups.
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett: D.K. Metcalf played last season with Geno Smith and a watered-down version of Russell Wilson under center and still managed to finish as WR20. Last season he was eighth in target share (27.3%), 24th in targets per snap, and 20th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). Metcalf has the talent to pop off any week, but this is one to consider other options if you have other WR3 types in better matchups. He’ll run about 80% of his routes against Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby. Surtain was excellent in his rookie season, giving up a 57.6% catch rate and 69.7 passer rating. Darby was his usual solid self with a 57.8% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating in coverage.
While Tyler Lockett is an aging wide receiver, he was still one of the most efficient wide receivers in football last season. Last year he ranked ninth in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) and receiving yards per game. Lockett will run about 59% of his routes on the perimeter against Surtain and Darby. When he slides inside, he’ll see brand new slot corner, K’Wuan Williams. Williams gave up an 80.2% catch rate and 96.4 passer rating last year.
Metcalf led the team with a 37% endzone target share and 35% red zone target share last year. With his high-value role, Metcalf is a volatile WR3 this week while Lockett slides into WR4 territory.
Tight Ends
Albert Okwuegbunam: Albert Okwuegbunam is the home run swing to take at tight end in Week 1. The athleticism and talent are real. He’s flashed both in limited capacities over the last two seasons raking fifth in yards per route run in each season. He’s also finished top-seven in YAC per reception and target per route rate in back-to-back seasons. The matchup is to die for in Week 1. Seattle was 26th in DVOA last year with the tenth-most receiving yards and fourth-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends. If Jeudy isn’t getting a hefty number of short area looks this week, it’ll be Okwuegbunam.
Noah Fant: Noah Fant will find it tough to log a third straight season as a top 12 fantasy tight end this year, as the third option in a Geno Smith led offense. Fant was the TE12 and TE11 in fantasy points per game over the last two years. Fant was 12th in yards per route run at the position last year (minimum 20 targets). Denver was 11th in DVOA last year, holding tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards and third-fewest fantasy points per game. Fant is a risky TE2.
My DFS Plays
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last season Buffalo (second, 65%) and Los Angeles (seventh, 61%) ranked top-eight in neutral passing rate, so expect them to chuck the ball.
- The Bills ranked second in neutral pace, followed by the Rams at 16th. The play volume should be healthy, but don’t expect top-five status for this week’s slate.
- The Bills (fourth) and Rams (fifth) were both elite defensive units last season against the pass inside the 20, but they were leaky against the run. Buffalo ranked 22nd, followed by the Rams at 26th in red-zone rushing defense. Josh Allen and Cam Akers could be in for multiple touchdown outings on the ground this week.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: The Rams’ pass defense was stout last season, but they weren’t impervious. Despite ranking sixth in pass defense DVOA and third against the deep ball, they were susceptible to being eaten up underneath. Los Angeles ranked 21st in DVOA against short passing. They allowed the ninth-most passing yards and the second-most YAC in the NFL. Their pristine 16:19 passing touchdown to interception ratio (third-most interceptions in the NFL) helped to mask some of their secondary issues. Los Angeles also allowed the ninth-most missed tackles in the NFL, so if Allen is willing to take what the Rams are giving him, he can cut them to pieces underneath. Last season, Allen was seventh in short passing attempts (0-9 yards). He’s still a top three fantasy option despite the seemingly difficult on-paper matchup.
Matthew Stafford: This is without a doubt a wretched matchup for Matthew Stafford. The strength of the Buffalo Bills’ defense lies in their secondary. Last season they allowed the fewest passing yards and passing touchdowns in the NFL while also finishing with the third-most interceptions. The Bills’ pass defense was first in defensive DVOA, proving they are legit. Last year only Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady finished with 270 or more passing yards in a game, and only three quarterbacks (Mahomes, Brady, and Taylor Heinicke) threw for multiple touchdowns in a game. Buffalo will bring the heat against Stafford after ranking first in pressure rate last year, but Stafford should be up to the task. He was seventh in big-time throw rate and sixth in passer rating last season against pressure (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Stafford is best viewed as a high-end QB2 this week with top 12 upside if (or when) this game shoots out.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary: Last year, from Weeks 14-18, Devin Singletary was the Bills’ unquestioned lead back. He played at least 68% of the snaps in each game, averaging 18.8 touches and 97 total yards per game. In that stretch, he ran a route on 65.3% of Allen’s dropbacks, drawing a 7.8% target share. While the early down work, especially early on, can still shade toward Singletary, his passing down snaps could be cut to nothing in short order with the arrival of James Cook. Singletary has been objectively terrible in the passing game over the last two seasons, ranking 65th and 50th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets) and 22nd and 43rd in PFF pass-blocking grades.
If we’re mostly looking at Singletary for his early down volume and upside, he’s in for an uphill battle. The Rams were top 12 last season in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards allowed while also holding opposing backs to the seventh-lowest explosive run rate. If Singletary pays off this week, it will likely be because of touchdowns, as the Rams were also 26th in red zone rushing defense. This isn’t easy to count on, as Josh Allen could easily soak up these attempts. Singletary is a low-ceiling flex play this week.
James Cook: James Cook could be a substantial part of the game plan from the word go. Cook’s role as the “sub back” is the one to target if you’re looking to flex a running back from this backfield. Cook arrives in Buffalo after ranking ninth and 28th in yards per route run among running backs during his final two seasons at Georgia (minimum 20 targets). Cook played 26.2% of his collegiate snaps in the slot or out wide. With a tight spread and an offense that ranked second in neutral passing rate and sixth in red zone passing rate, Cook should see a substantial workload. I bring up Cook’s slot usage from college because the Bills could deploy him in this manner against a defense that allowed the seventh-most slot receiving yards and tenth-most slot receptions last year. The Rams ranked 24th in DVOA against receiving backs last season.
Zack Moss: I would be shocked if Zack Moss played meaningful snaps in this game. Over his final nine games last season, he never played more than 41% of the snaps and was inactive in four games. Even in the most desperate of situations, Moss isn’t flex-worthy.
Cam Akers: The last time we saw Cam Akers, he was making a miraculous recovery from his Achilles injury in his return for the Rams’ playoff run. In the postseason, Akers averaged 18.7 touches and 62 total yards per game (58% snaps). Much has been made of his inefficiency, but we need to put this into context as the offensive line was getting blown apart. His blockers did him no favors as 156 of his 172 rushing yards (2.6 yards per carry) came after contact. Sony Michel received 26 carries in the postseason and couldn’t even muster Akers’ 2.33 yards after contact per attempt (Michel, 1.73).
If Darrell Henderson is involved this week, the split could be similar to the Super Bowl when Akers played 57% of snaps with 16 touches while running routes on 44.1% of Stafford’s dropbacks. In between the 20s, Akers should be the lead, but the red zone work could be a coin flip. Against the Bengals, Henderson saw three opportunities inside the 20 while Akers only logged two.
The matchup on the ground is exploitable for Akers. Last season the Bills were gashed by opposing running backs allowing the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also ranking 23rd in explosive run rate allowed and 31st in open field yards. Buffalo was tied for the seventh-most rushing touchdowns allowed to backs. Losing Star Lotulelei and replacing him with DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle at defensive tackle won’t help matters. Jones and Settle ranked 48th and 57th in run defense grades per PFF last season (minimum 50 run defense snaps). Akers could get sniped at the goal line, but considering his lead status and the plus matchup, he’s a low-end RB2.
Darrell Henderson: The only sample we have last year with Akers and Henderson together after Akers’ return was the Super Bowl. In that game, Henderson was the clear backup. He played 32% of the snaps totaling eight touches (five targets, three receptions) with 50 total yards. He ran a route on 34.8% of Stafford’s dropbacks. The only area where he had the upper hand over Akers was near the goal line, as I previously mentioned. The matchup is a plus one on the ground, especially considering the strength of Buffalo’s defense is their secondary. Henderson’s volume could surprise, but a median projection on his volume and role leaves him as nothing more than a desperation flex play.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs: Stefon Diggs led the Buffalo Bills in nearly every receiving category last season. He saw a 26% target share and 34% of the team’s air yards while also leading the Bills with 23 endzone targets. Diggs will run about 78% of his routes on the perimeter, matching up against Jalen Ramsey and David Long Jr. for most of the game. It’s possible the Rams could stick Ramsey on Diggs. Last year Ramsey shadowed five times, following Davante Adams, D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, and Mike Evans on 54-70% of their routes. Shadowing Ramsey allowed only 55.6 receiving yards per game and one score. Overall, Ramsey gave up a 61.% catch rate and 84.5 passer rating in coverage last year. Long allowed a 65.1% catch rate and 79.7 passer rating.
Gabriel Davis: Gabriel Davis steps into a full-time role opposite Stefon Diggs from the jump this year. We didn’t see him get expanded starter’s reps until Week 14 last year. Over his final six games played, he was on the field for at least 71% of the snaps in each game. Over that span, while he only eclipsed 50 receiving yards twice, one of which was his drumming of Kansas City, he still drew a 20.3% target share (7.5 targets per game). While he played a limited role until that final stretch, he still finished second on the team in end zone target share and red zone target share. Last year Davis ran about 68% of his routes on the perimeter, which means, like Diggs, he’ll tangle with Ramsey and Long for most of the game. If Ramsey does indeed follow Diggs, then it’ll be more Long.
Isaiah McKenzie: Every report this offseason has mentioned Isaiah McKenzie as the Buffalo starting slot wide receiver, so currently, that’s how I’m approaching it. Arguably McKenzie has a fantastic matchup this week and is a player I’ll be ranking aggressively. McKenzie has been electric when he’s been given time to shine. Over the last two seasons, he has logged only two games with at least 70% of the offensive snaps. In those contests, he has averaged 10.5 targets, 8.5 receptions, 95 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns. He logged a stout 25.9% target per route run rate with individual 1.71 and 2.91 yards per route game totals.
McKenzie should blow the doors off Week 1 expectations against the Rams. As previously discussed, the Rams struggled last year against the slot, and it doesn’t look any brighter this season. Troy Hill is back in town, taking over the slot duties. Hill was a turnstile in the slot last year, allowing a 77.2% catch rate and 130.1 passer rating. McKenzie is an upside flex that could put up top 24 receiver numbers this week.
Cooper Kupp: It’s Cooper Kupp. Yes, the on-paper matchup is disgusting. Does that matter for Cooper Kupp? Not really. I don’t need to add to the word count of the Primer to convince you to start Kupp despite the matchup. The undisputed WR1 last year in target share, YAC, receiving yards, and red zone targets needs no justification. Kupp lined up in the slot on 66% of snaps last year, so he’ll see Taron Johnson for most of the game. Johnson allowed a 56.8% catch rate and 81.1 passer rating in coverage last season.
Allen Robinson: Which version of Allen Robinson will we get this season? From all of the glowing preseason reports on Robinson, I expect it’ll be the former premier version that was one of the game’s best and most underrated pass catchers. Before his production cratered in 2021, Robinson finished 15th and 31st in yards per route run and fifth and 15th in PFF, receiving grades in the two previous seasons.
Robinson operated on the perimeter on 63% of his routes last year. This means he’ll see Tre’Davious White if he’s active and Dane Jackson or Kaiir Elam. White is coming off a major injury (ACL), but he’s trending toward suiting up here. Last year he allowed a 53.4% catch rate and 61.4 passer rating. Even at less than 100%, White is still an above-average corner. Jackson could start opposite White. Jackson allowed a 58.5% catch rate and 81.1 passer rating last season. If White can’t go, Jackson and Elam could be the perimeter corners, or Elam could earn the start over Jackson. Elam is a talented rookie who is illustrated by his first-round pick status but rarely do rookie corners hit the NFL without struggling in the early going. If Elam draws the start, bump Robinson up a tad. Expect Robinson and Kupp to be the pillars of this passing game.
Van Jefferson: It’s sounding doubtful that Van Jefferson suits up this week. Even if Jefferson is active, he’s a low-end flex play best left on your bench this week. Last year Jefferson ranked 64th in target share (14.8%), 66th in yards per route run, and was the WR41 in fantasy points per game. He served as the team’s deep threat (30th in deep targets) in the early going, likely the role he’ll reprise this season. Buffalo isn’t the team to uncork deep shots against. They were the best team in the NFL last year at defending the deep ball allowing a 17.1% deep completion rate (32nd) and 9.3 passer rating (32nd) on deep targets.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox: The matchup is brutal for Dawson Knox, but he does have better hopes in PPR leagues than 0.5 PPR or standard formats this week. Last season Knox was the TE9 because of his role near the goal line and his touchdown production. Knox was fourth in red zone targets and second in total touchdowns among tight ends. His volume was pitiful, though, as he was 20th in targets and 22nd in target share at the position. The silver lining for Knox here, though, is the corner matchups for receiving options outside of McKenzie are tough. This could push extra volume in his direction. The Rams were fourth in DVOA against tight ends last year, and they allowed the sixth-lowest receiving touchdown count, but they were 11th in receptions allowed. Opposing tight ends soaked up meaningless volume with teams looking to avoid the Rams’ corners. While this isn’t a ringing endorsement to start Knox, his volume could surprise and carry him to a solid day in PPR leagues. His chances at touchdown spiking this week are low, though.
Tyler Higbee: Tyler Higbee‘s best trait these days is availability. Last year he was the TE13 in fantasy points per game, fueled by routes and not efficiency. Higbee ranked 14th in target share and 25th in yards per route run last year. He was second in snap share, and sixth in routes run. Higbee doesn’t even enter streamer territory this week, though. Buffalo was 13th in DVOA against the position last year, allowing the second-fewest receptions and the sixth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
My DFS Plays
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
