Cleveland Browns vs. Carolina Panthers

• CAR -2.5, O/U 41.5
• Browns vs. Panthers Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• During Ben McAdoo’s four seasons as the Giants’ offensive coordinator and head coach, they ranked 13th, fourth, first, and third in neutral script pace.
• The Browns could counteract any Carolina pace surprises with a sluggish offensive attack. Last year they were 20th in neutral pace with the ninth-highest rushing rate in close games.
  Unsurprisingly Cleveland was also run-centric inside the 20, ranking seventh in rushing frequency.

Injuries

• Browns News – Injury Reports
• Panthers News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett: Let’s be real here. No one is starting Jacoby Brissett in Week 1. In his five full starts last year, he finished higher than the QB19 only once. Among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks last season, he was 15th in PFF passing grade, 24th in big-time throw rate, and 20th in adjusted completion rate. Brissett is a better real-life game manager than he will ever be as a fantasy asset.

Baker Mayfield: Baker Mayfield is in trouble in Week 1 against his former team. His former team is one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Last year they were seventh in pass defense DVOA with the seventh lowest adjusted completion rate and fourth-lowest yards per attempt allowed. The Browns’ pass rush was 13th in QB knockdown rate, which should frighten Mayfield. Mayfield logged the ninth worst PFF passing grade and 12th-lowest adjusted completion rate against pressure last year (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). This game could be a defense-led snooze fest which is reflected in the total.

Running Backs

Last year Weeks 1-5

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: Last year with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both on the field for the first six games of the season, their per-game production was quite different in terms of style, but the results were a mirror image. Chubb only garnered one target and seven receiving yards per game, so as expected, the bulk of his work came on early downs. Hunt flashed his usual swiss army knife skill set en route to a top 10 fantasy running back start.

While Chubb’s volume ceiling is a tad higher weekly, and he has the slight lead in red zone usage, Hunt’s pass game role helps him make up the difference in scoring. Carolina was 14th in DVOA against receiving backs last year, allowing the lowest receiving yards and third-lowest receptions in the NFL. With that also a factor, we could see Cleveland lean on Chubb or both backs heavier on early downs in Week 1.

The Browns’ offensive line was top three last year in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. While the Panthers were seventh in adjusted line yards and second in stuff rate, they were prone to giving up big plays to rushers. Through their first nine games, they were 27th in explosive run rate allowed before tightening up to 16th over the back half. It’ll be interesting to see which version of this run defense we get to open the year. Both of these rushers are among the most explosive in the league. Last year Chubb was ranked sixth in true yards per carry and breakaway run rate, while Hunt was 10th in both metrics.

Christian McCaffrey: Last year sadly, we only got a five-game sample of Christian McCaffrey doing Christian McCaffrey things. He had five games in which he played at least 49% of the snaps averaging 23.4 touches and 142 total yards with a 22.2% target share. In those games, he was the RB1, RB3, RB15, RB4, and RB3 in weekly fantasy scoring. He was top-four in breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, and yards per route run.

McCaffrey has proven time and time again that as long as he is healthy, he’s matchup-proof. Cleveland was fifth in DVOA against receiving backs last year, but they were 21st in open field yards and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. When the Panthers get in close, they should be able to punch it in the endzone against a run defense that was 20th inside the 20 last season.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: Amari Cooper is a declining number one receiver on a run-first offense with a game manager quarterback. Even before we weigh in on the matchup, these are reasons to find it difficult to plug into your lineup. Last year Cooper was the WR25 in fantasy points per game as he struggled to get open. He finished 60th in route win rate while watching his yards per route run dip for the third consecutive season. Cooper will matchup with Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn on nearly 70% of his routes this week. Jackson allowed a 65.6% catch rate and 89.0 passer rating last year. Horn was limited to only 95 coverage snaps last year (injury), but he only allowed opposing receivers to secure one of their five targets. He’s a physical corner who should give Cooper fits.

Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Bell: Sit Donovan Peoples-Jones. He’s a field-stretching receiver (fourth in aDOT last year) tied to a quarterback who, the last time we saw him for an extended stretch, was 23rd in deep ball completion rate. Peoples-Jones will spend about 80% of his snaps against Jackson and Horn. Carolina was ninth in DVOA last year against the deep ball.

From a matchup perspective, David Bell is the most interesting Browns receiver to consider as a dart throw for your dynasty lineup. Bell ran 88.9% of his routes from the slot in the preseason. That means he’ll see a heavy dose of Myles Hartsfield, who was ripped in half by opposing slot receivers last year. He gave up an 82.1% catch rate and 122.8 passer rating in slot coverage. Bell drew a target on 26.7% of his routes in the preseason with 3.15 yards per route run.

Update: Greedy Williams has been placed on the IR.

D.J. Moore: D.J. Moore is a stud in every sense. Last year despite dealing with a catchable target rate that was 71st among wideouts he finished as the WR23 and 26th in yards per route run. He was 11th in target per route run rate and tenth in total route wins. Moore will again be a volume vacuum this season after ranking top-six last year in targets, target share, and air yards. This is a matchup to bump him down a peg though. Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward will follow him on about 80% of his routes. Williams surrendered a 58.1% catch rate and 71.7 passer rating last year. Ward was similarly tough with a 62.0% catch rate and 74.8 passer rating in coverage. Denzel Ward and either Greg Newsome or rookie Martin Emerson will follow him on about 80% of his routes. Ward was tough with a 62.0% catch rate and 74.8 passer rating in coverage. Newsome allowed a 63.8% catch rate and 96.6 passer rating last year.

Robbie Anderson: Robbie Anderson looked cooked last year. He’ll see Ward and Williams on nearly 63% of his snaps. These are matchups he’ll struggle to win after falling apart last season. Anderson was 56th in route win rate, 49th in win rate against man coverage, and 94th in yards per route run.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: David Njoku‘s a player I’ve been championing all off-season, but this isn’t the matchup to look to start him. Njoku’s athleticism and yards after the catch (fifth in YAC per reception last year, minimum 20 targets) ability will be muted this week. The Panthers were ninth in DVOA against the position last year. They allowed the fewest yards after the catch in the NFL in 2021.

Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble: No, we’re not this desperate. Not now. Maybe never. The Browns were seventh in DVOA against tight ends last year, ranking 16th in fantasy points per game allowed.

My DFS Plays

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

• IND -8, O/U 45.5
• Colts vs. Texans Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Texans could be a pass-happy squad this season. During the last two seasons, we saw Pep Hamilton coordinate an NFL offense the Colts ranked first and ninth in pass attempts. He also was a big fan of play volume as they were fourth and 11th in neutral pace.
• This could be a sneaky pass-heavy game. In Weeks 1-8 last season, before Indy realized Carson Wentz was a dumpster fire, they were 21st in pace but 11th in passing rate in close contests. If the betting line is right, though, they could lean on Jonathan Taylor. In those first eight games, when they played with a lead of eight or more points, they ranked 10th in rushing rate.

Injuries

• Colts News – Injury Reports
• Texans News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: Matt Ryan carries some upside as a QB2 this week. Last year the Texans were 22nd in pass defense DVOA with the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate and fourth-highest yards per attempt allowed. Ryan might not be a young buck anymore, but he can still sling the deep ball ranking top three in deep ball completion rate and accuracy last year. This gives him some ceiling this week against a secondary that was third in deep completion rate in 2021. The risk with Ryan is the Colts run up the score early, and Frank Reich takes the air out of the ball and leans on Jonathan Taylor.

Davis Mills: Consider me low on Davis Mills this week. In about a game and a half of action against Indy last year Mills was wretched. He completed 61.4% of his passes for a woeful 4.2 yards per attempt (0:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio). The Colts were 17th in pass defense DVOA last year and 19th in yards per attempt. Yes, they gave up the second-most passing touchdowns last season, but they also forced the third-most interceptions.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Jonathan Taylor destroyed Houston last year averaging 23 carries and 144 rushing yards in their two meetings. The Texans added Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to the defensive line but even adding the ninth-highest graded defensive end in football (per PFF, minimum 100 run defense snaps) can’t cure everything that ails you. Last year Houston was 30th in explosive run rate, 25th or worse in every run defense metric that I value, and top-three in rushing yards and rushing scores allowed. Taylor is a locked-in top three running back this week.

Nyheim Hines: This isn’t the matchup to consider plugging in Nyheim Hines. Houston was 12th in DVOA against receiving backs last year. They saw the sixth-fewest targets relinquishing the eighth-fewest receiving yards to the position. Teams played with a lead and had success rushing, so deploying their backs in the passing game was rarely needed. That’s likely the scenario this week as well. Hines saw the largest percentage of his targets trailing (22%). This week’s probable script doesn’t likely equal Hines going wild.

Update: Shaquile Leonard has been ruled out for Week 1. This is a small bump for Pierce’s prospects.

Dameon Pierce: Dameon Pierce‘s hype is hot and heavy, but he’s nothing more than a flex play this week. His matchup with the Colts is a brutal one. Last year Indy was fourth in second-level yards and 11th in open field yards allowed. They held opposing rushing attacks to the eighth-lowest rushing yards and touchdowns while also ranking 14th in stuff rate. The Texans’ line won’t do him many favors after sitting at 32nd in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards last season. Pierce’s best path to a solid day lies through the air. Last year the Colts were 27th in DVOA against backs in the passing game. They held them to 21st in receptions but surrendered the 12th-most receiving yards.

The problem with that is Rex Burkhead could be the preferred passing down back this year, especially early in the season. I don’t question that Pierce is a better pass blocker and receiver than Burkhead, but it doesn’t matter what I think in that respect. Houston may opt for veteran deference.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Michael Pittman began to scratch the surface of his immense talent last year. He finished as the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in target share (25.7%) and 19th in yards per route run. The biggest worry for Pittman this week is that Taylor rips this defense apart on the ground, and Reich nerfs the second-half passing rate. Last year in his two meetings against this defense, he averaged 5.5 targets, four receptions, and 56 scoreless receiving yards. If Indy passes, early Pittman could eat, though. The Texans’ corners all played zone on at least 60% of their snaps, with Lovie Smith still in charge of the defense that should be expected this year. Pittman destroyed zone last season, ranking fifth in route win rate and 20th in yards per route run (minimum 20 zone targets). He’ll see Steven Nelson and rookie Derek Stingley in coverage on about 80% of his routes. Nelson allowed a 77.8% catch rate and 114.8 passer rating in zone coverage last year. We rarely see rookie corners hit the ground running in the NFL, so expecting Stingley to struggle out the gate isn’t insane.

Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell: Alec Pierce will line up opposite Pittman on the outside and will see Nelson and Stingley for much of the game. Pierce excelled against zone last year in college. He saw 48.8% of his target volume against the coverage, securing 77.5% of his targets. Out of 133 wideouts with at least 20 zone targets, he finished 60th in PFF grade, 47th in yards per route run, and eighth in passer rating when targeted against zone.

If picking between these two for a secondary Colts receiver to target, I do slightly prefer Parris Campbell. He lined up in the slot on 84% of his brief preseason snaps. While he and Pierce possibly trade-off as Ryan’s secondary target weekly behind Pittman, I’m digging Campbell this week as he’ll match up with Desmond King. King was a free pass in the slot last season, allowing a 73.6% catch rate and 115.9 passer rating in coverage.

Brandin Cooks: If I’m worried about Mills’ that has to trickle down to his top receiving option to a less degree. Cooks’ two meetings against the Colts last year were solid but not spectacular performances as he averaged 8.5 targets, six receptions, and 63.5 receiving yards (zero touchdowns). In those weeks, he was WR18 and WR41. Cooks will be the tip of the spear for Mills this year again. Last season he was tenth in target share, 16th in target per route rate, and 16th in yards per route run showing little decline with age. Cooks was also 19th in route win rate overall. This week he’ll see new arrivals Brandon Facyson and Stephon Gilmore when on the perimeter. Last year Facyson was abysmal, allowing a 61.3% catch rate and 107.1 passer rating. Gilmore was still solid despite his advancing age, with a 68.2% catch rate and 80.7 passer rating in coverage. In 2021 after Week 8, the team bumped his slot rate from 27.7% to 41%, which is something we could see continue this year. That would mean more time against one of the most overrated slot corners in the NFL, Kenny Moore. Moore finished 13th in yards allowed per snap last year while leading the NFL in slot receiving touchdowns.

Nico Collins: Nico Collins has caught some steam over the last few weeks. We’re still waiting for Collins’ athletic talent to translate to the NFL field, although maybe that happens more in his sophomore season. Last year while running 86% of his routes outside, he was 72nd in route win rate and 84th in yards per route run. In Weeks 6-18, playing above 60% of the snaps in nearly every game, he only drew a 14.3% target share with 22.4% of the team’s air yards. Over that span, he logged only one top 36 week. Collins is better off remaining on your bench this week. While he can have some success against Facyson, overall, the ceiling is low.

Tight Ends

Mo Alie-Cox: Mo Alie-Cox could see his route per dropback rate climb this year. Last season he sat at 42.9%, but with Jack Doyle gone and only Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods behind him, he could enter full-timer status. Alie-Cox was efficient when featured last year, ranking top 20 in yards per route run, QBR when targeted, and fantasy points per route and target. The Texans offer a match-up that could lead to a top 12 week. Last year they were 12th in receiving yards, sixth in receiving touchdowns, and fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Brevin Jordan: A similar scenario is laid before Brevin Jordan‘s feet in Week 1. He could assume the full-time role in Houston this season after playing well in a limited capacity last season. In his only game with 60% or higher snaps, he was the TE12. When he did play, he garnered targets at a high rate, ranking 11th in target per route run rate. The Colts offer a juicy runway to begin his second season. Last year they were eighth in receiving yards and fantasy points per game and sixth in receiving touchdowns (tied) allowed to tight ends. Jordan is in the Week 1 tight-end streamer conversation or a solid target if you play in two tight-end formats.

My DFS Plays

New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans

• TEN -5.5, O/U 43.5
• Giants vs. Titans Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• If you’re a Giants fan, you’re praying that Brian Daboll’s play-calling history immediately rubs off on this team. Last year with Buffalo, they were eighth in neutral pace and second in passing rate. They also utilized no-huddle at the ninth-highest rate when the score was within eight points.
• If there’s one thing Todd Downing can do effectively, it’s run a nauseatingly slow offensive attack. Tennessee was 25th and second in 2021 in neutral pace and rushing rate.

Injuries

• Giants News – Injury Reports
• Titans News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: Daniel Jones won’t make your starting lineup in one quarterback leagues this week, but in deeper formats and Superflex leagues, there’s some appeal. At first glance, the Titans’ pass defense was tough last year, ranking 11th in pass defense DVOA, allowing the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate. While those things are true, this secondary also was 13th in yards per attempt while displaying cracks in the pavement against play-action and deep passing. Tennessee was 10th in deep passing yards and touchdowns. They yielded the 11th-highest yards per attempt on play-action passes. Jones was abysmal last year, but in 2020 he was fifth in deep ball accuracy and play-action completion rate. Brian Daboll has been adamant about him gripping and ripping it all off-season, so we could Danny chuck some dimes this week. Also, noting here that the Titans’ were second (tied) in quarterback rushing scores allowed last season.

Ryan Tannehill: Ryan Tannehill is another middling QB2 option with intrigue. New York gave up the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate last year. They proved leaky against play-action passing, a Ryan Tannehill staple (seventh in play-action dropbacks in 2021). The Giants were third in play-action passing touchdown rate while logging the tenth-highest play-action passer rating surrendered. With Don Martindale installed as the new defensive coordinator, expect the team to blitz (16th in blitz rate last year) and play man coverage more. Both of these developments should help Tannehill in Week 1. Last year he was top 10 in completion rate, passer rating, and accuracy against man. He also finished 12th and 11th in completion rate and yards per attempt against the blitz.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Saquon Barkley looked to be rounding into form in Weeks 2-4 last year. Then in Week 5, a Cowboys player stepped on his foot; the rest was history. Barkley missed the next four games and was never the same in 2021. Over that three-game span, Barkley played at least 84% of the snaps weekly, averaging 18.3 touches and 96.3 total yards. His efficiency metrics improved as he sat at 2.69 yards after contact per attempt and 1.39 yards per route run. Barkley will run behind arguably the best offensive line of his career this year with the Giants’ offseason upgrades. He’ll need all the blocking help and every ounce of volume he can get this week.

The Titans are a dreadful matchup for Barkley in Week 1. Tennessee was top ten in rushing yards (second-lowest), explosive run rate (third-lowest), and red zone run defense (tenth). They were also 10th in DVOA against pass-catching backs. This all culminated in the lowest fantasy points per game allowed to running backs last year. Barkley can get there with volume this week, but his box score likely won’t be pretty.

The Bull case for Derrick Henry

Last year:

10th in yards after contact / att

12th in breakaway run rate
————————————-
Downside case:

His lowest yds after contact/ attempt since 2017.

His lowest breakaway run rate since his rookie szn.

Last year 31st in yds created / touch pic.twitter.com/MXbt9Jje7N

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 1, 2022

Derrick Henry: The Big Dog is rested and ready to eat. At least that’s what the Titans’ 2022 hopes are pinned to. Derrick Henry looked like a back that as beginning to show wear on the tires before his regular season-ending injury. Tennessee had no issues leaning on him last year with 27.4 rushing attempts and 117.1 rushing yards per game. The Titans’ offensive line, which was 16th and 21st in adjusted line yards and second-level yards last year, is a concern, but it’s mitigated against a mediocre Giants’ run defense this week.

New York was 31st and 23rd in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed last year. Henry should be able to take advantage of a front that was 24th in explosive run rate and sixth in rushing yards and missed tackles. We’ll see how Henry holds up this year, but he should get off to a good start in Week 1.

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Wan’Dale Robinson: Kenny Golladay shouldn’t come anywhere close to your starting lineup this week. Golladay looked checked out and unable to get open in the preseason, which is a continuation of 2021. Golladay finished outside the top 70 receivers last year in yards per route run, route win rate, and win rate against man coverage. We have an entire season to make questionable lineup decisions. Don’t start it off by crushing your Week 1 hopes with Golladay stinking up your lineup.

Among all WRs w/ 100 or more routes:

ONLY

Cooper Kupp
Davante Adams
A.J. Brown
Antonio Brown
Kadarius Toney ??

<End of List>

finished with a 29% target per route run rate (or ⬆️) & 2.20 YPRR (or ⬆️)

Draft. Trade For. KADARIUS TONEY. pic.twitter.com/oNVbW92OG8

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 28, 2022

That leaves us with Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson to discuss here.

My off-season love for Kadarius Toney is well documented. What can I say? I love efficient players that flash ridiculous upside. The tweet above should open your eyes and illuminate the talent level we’re dealing with. 

Toney ran from the slot on 60% of his snaps last year. With Sterling Shepard sounding like a go for Week 1, I’m currently projecting Shepard to reprise closer to this 2020 role where he played about 67% of his snaps on the outside. This means Toney should see most of his snaps from the inside. Shepard and Golladay should see plenty of Krisitan Fulton and Caleb Farely on the outside. Fulton flashed true shutdown potential last season, allowing a 50.7% catch rate and 75.3 passer rating. Farley was limited to 37 coverage snaps last season (injury). It wasn’t pretty during his limited playing time as he gave up a 77.8% catch rate and 101.4 passer rating. 

With Elijah Molden now on the IR, either rookie Roger McCreary or Ugo Amadi will cover the slot. Aamdi allowed an 82.4% catch rate and 101.4 passer rating in slot coverage last year. With Molden as the primary slot corner last season, Tennessee was first in receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot receivers. 

Shepard’s starting status is the biggest blow to Wan’Dale Robinson who will be limited in snaps. Robinson stood tall at Kentucky with a 98th percentile college target share and 95th percentile breakout age. Last year he was 18th in yards per route run and 13th in receiving yards from the slot. He played 86% of his snaps in the preseason from the slot. With his snap count now looking impossible to project he’s a automatic sit in Week 1.

Robert Woods and Treylon Burks: Robert Woods is an uninspiring flex play this week. My spider sense doesn’t tingle with aging receivers coming off ACL injuries on run-first teams. Woods was 36th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) last year, but his blowup game against SEA skewed that number. In five of his eight other full games, he was below 1.7 yards per route run. Before 2021, he had seen his yards per route run decline in four straight seasons. Unless the Titans become more 11 personnel heavy, he’ll be an outside receiver this year, and we could see Adoree Jackson shadow him with Martindale deploying more man coverage. Last year Adoree shadowed twice, holding opposing receivers to three targets, 1.5 receptions, and 11 receiving yards per game. Overall, Jackson gave up a 55.7% catch rate and 73.4 passer rating last year. When Woods isn’t lining up against Jackson, he’ll see Aaron Robinson on the perimeter, which allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 84.4 passer rating in 2021.

Call me chicken, but with Treylon Burks‘ rollercoaster training camp and yawn-inducing preseason, I’m not trusting him in my lineup in Week 1. Burks was only targeted on 15.2% of his preseason routes (87.5% out wide), securing four of his seven targets with 0.80 yards per route run. He’ll see Jackson and Robinson in coverage.

Tight Ends

Daniel Bellinger: Are you starting a rookie tight end against a defense that was 10th in DVOA allowing the fifth-lowest receiving yards and fantasy points per game to his position? Yeah. I didn’t think so. While I love Daniel Bellinger‘s talent and route per dropback upside, I won’t be recommending him here.

Austin Hooper: The shiniest feathers in Austin Hooper‘s cap are his route upside and the dry heave-worthy wide receivers on this depth chart. Hooper worked in a committee in Cleveland but still managed to rank 15th in targets per route run last year. While his production cratered over the last two years, we do have evidence he’s talented. Going back to 2019, when he was the TE3 in fantasy points per game and 13th in yards per route run. Now, thrust back into a full-time role, it’s not insane to think he’s in the conversation to lead the team in targets in 2022. Martindale’s defenses in Baltimore have allowed significant production to tight ends in previous seasons. During his four years as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, they ranked higher than 18th in DVOA against tight ends only once. Last year the Giants dealt with the sixth-most targets to tight ends, and while they gave up the 12th-most receptions, they held the position to 21st in receiving yards and 22nd in fantasy points per game.

My DFS Plays

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

• GB -2, O/U 48
• Packers vs. Vikings Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The new upbeat attack of the Vikings this year with Kevin O’Connell has garnered a lot of offseason ink, but the reality is that this offensive play volume could look similar to last year. The Vikings were fifth and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate last year. As good as they were in 2021, the Rams were ranked 13th and ninth in these categories.
• Aaron Rodgers‘ volume will remain capped, barring a massive change with Nathaniel Hackett leaving. Green Bay was 10th in neutral passing frequency last year, but they were 32nd in pace. I doubt that they will suddenly start sprinting up and down the field in 2022.

Injuries

• Packers News – Injury Reports
• Vikings News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: Aaron Rodgers crushed the Vikings last year. In their two games, he averaged 336 passing yards and three scores while completing 73.2% of his passes. Yes, he lost Davbae Adams in the offseason, but this isn’t a secondary to fear. Minnesota was eighth in yards per attempt and ninth in passing touchdowns allowed last year. They especially struggled deep with the eighth-most deep passing yards and fourth-most deep passing touchdowns surrendered. Rodgers was sixth in deep attempts and 13th in deep passer rating (minimum 10 deep attempts) in 2021.

MAN VAN alwayshttps://t.co/Vl9Iteh16W

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) July 27, 2021

Kirk Cousins: Unlike Rodgers, Kirk Cousins faces a tough on-paper matchup. That didn’t stop him from lighting them up in his only game against them last year. He tossed for 341 with three scores while completing 68.5% of his passes. The Packers allowed the fifth-lowest adjusted completion rate and seventh-lowest yards per attempt last season, but they were swiss cheese inside the 20. They ranked 29th in red zone passing defense with the seventh-most passing touchdowns permitted. Look for Kevin O’Connell to exploit this. With Matthew Stafford last year, the Rams were ninth in red zone passing rate. While Cousins’ yardage total might not impress, he can still sling it for a multiple touchdown game in Week 1.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon: Aaron Jones missed one of the games against Minnesota last year. In the other game, he had eight carries for 76 yards on the ground while adding another 30 through the air (six targets, five receptions). A.J. Dillon played both weeks averaging 12.5 rushing attempts with 58 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards (4.5 targets, four receptions). The Vikings were 32nd and 25th last season in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. They excelled in limiting big plays as they were fourth in open field yards with the 12th-lowest explosive run rate. The defensive line lost Sheldon Richardson and Michael Pierce in the offseason but gained linebacker Jordan Hicks and defensive lineman Harrison Phillips. Hicks was the 30th-highest graded linebacker against the run per PFF (minimum 100 run defense snaps), and Phillips was sixth among defensive tackles. These two players should help. The question is, how much?

Weeks 14-17

After Week 13, the Packers split up the work between Jones and Dillon almost evenly. Jones had the clear edge in the passing game, but Dillon was the team’s primary option near the goal line. Jones was banged up during this span, but we can’t rule out that this split could roll over to 2022. Jones didn’t show any fall-off from an efficiency standpoint last year, ranking ninth in yards created per touch, 15th in yards per route run, and 16th in evaded tackles. Dillon was a bulldozer on early downs ranking 17th in yards created per touch while flashing surprisingly soft hands in the passing game with 2.07 yards per route run. Dillon doesn’t have Jones’ big play ability. Both backs are best viewed as RB2 options, with each carrying a higher ceiling should Jones break a big play or Dillon fall into the endzone twice.

Dalvin Cook: In the last three full games Dalvin Cook has played against Green Bay, he’s destroyed them. Last year he rolled up 25 touches with 115 total yards and a score. The previous season, he went nuclear with 32 touches for 226 total yards and four touchdowns, and earlier in the year, he was limited to 13 touches and 48 total yards, but he got in the endzone twice. The Packers were 26th and 21st in adjusted line yards last year, but the box score stats look like they were a top-tier run defense. They held the opposition to the sixth-fewest rushing yards, but that’s largely due to facing the third-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL. The Packers relinquished the third-highest rushing yards per attempt while sitting at 28th in explosive run rate. Cook should come screaming out of the starting blocks in Week 1.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 1, Dalvin Cook is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard: Reports coming out of Green Bay sound pessimistic about Allen Lazard suiting up for Week 1. Last year Lazard saw a 10% target share (third on the team) and 15% of the team’s air yards playing 42% of his snaps from the slot. He was third on the team in deep targets. The area of Lazard’s usage that really stands out was his team-leading 23% end zone target share. With Adams gone Lazard will likely play more outside, matching him up with Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler this week. Peterson surrendered a 57.8% catch rate and 89.0 passer rating last season. Dantzler was quite good with a 52.4% catch rate and 70.3 passer rating in coverage.

Update: Allen Lazard has been listed as doubtful for Week 1.

Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson:

[Insert Sammy Watkins Week 1 joke here]

Yes, Sammy Watkins should be fitted with a gold jacket for his induction in the Week 1 Hall of Fame, but that doesn’t make him startable. The wide receiver usage for this team could be scattered with Watkins, Doubs, and Watson all vying for routes on the outside. Cobb the same can be said but as a slot receiver. Cobb was a situational red zone receiver last year. Monitor the Fantasy Pros Discord for any updates on clarity regarding starter snaps for this team, but currently Lazard is the only Green Bay wideout we can comfortably project playing time, assuming he does play in Week 1.

Update: If you’re taking an upside flex stab at this wide receiver room, I lean Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs. Each of these rookies have speed to burn. Patrick Peterson has had troubles with speed at this stage of his career. Dantzler runs a 4.64 40 yard dash and has a 16th percentile speed score. One of these rookies is a darkhorse to burn this secondary deep in Week 1.

Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen: Justin Jefferson is a truly elite talent. Last year he led the Vikings with a 28% target share and saw 46% of the team’s air yards. Jefferson was the first read on 35% of the team’s passing plays while also handling 41% of the end zone targets. Is this matchup great? No. Are you still starting Jefferson? Emphatically yes. Jefferson was a top ten receiver in yards per route run (sixth) and route win rate (10th) last year. I doubt we see Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson partly because the other Green Bay corners are quite talented. Alexander was out for much of last season due to injury, so take his 60% catch rate and 93.5 passer rating allowed with a grain of salt. When he’s not matched up with Alexander, he’ll see Rasul Douglas, who was nasty in 2021, giving up a 51.5% catch rate and 46.3 passer rating.

Adam Thielen will run opposite Jefferson on the outside for about 75% of his routes against Alexander and Douglas. Thielen was still the WR14 in fantasy points per game last year despite his injury and advancing age. His yards per route run dipping to 53rd isn’t indicative of what he has left in the tank as he was still 25th in route win rate. Thielen saw a 19% red zone target share and will remain Cousin’s comfort blanket inside the 20.

K.J. Osborn: K.J. Osborn stepped up last year when Thielen was out of the lineup. His PPR scoring bumped from 8.6 points per game to 12.1, while his receiving yards climbed from 36.9 to 43.7 per game. Minnesota only utilized 11 personnel on 58% of their passing plays (29th) last season. That number will climb with O’Connell in town as the Rams led the league at 92%. There will be matchups in the slot where we gravitate to Osborn, but this isn’t one of those weeks. Osborn’s 53rd ranking in win rate last year doesn’t give us a lot of hope he’ll put up a juicy stat line against Eric Stokes. Stokes allowed a 51.0% catch rate and 79.1 passer rating last year.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: Robert Tonyan‘s 2020 season was an outlier in every sense and the limited time we saw him last year before he was lost to injury cemented that belief. In his five games with 60% or higher snaps, he only recorded one top 12 fantasy game. Touchdowns and not efficiency have been the hallmark for Tonyan. Against a Vikings team that saw the ninth-fewest targets to the position allowing the ninth-fewest receiving touchdowns, this isn’t an avenue to look his way.

Irv Smith: Onto another tight end that had his 2021 season wrecked by injury, Irv Smith is primed to return in Week 1. While he did sustain an injury in camp, all the reports are he’ll be active here. The last time we saw Smith, he was eighth in yards per target and second in QBR when targeted among tight ends. He should push for a massive route per dropback role with the depth chart unimpressive behind him. The Packers were vulnerable to tight ends last year, ranking 12th in receiving yards and sixth in receiving touchdowns. Minnesota could avoid the Packers’ stout corners, leading to a healthy target share for Smith.

My DFS Plays