The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions

• PHI -4, O/U 48.5
• Eagles at Lions Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Eagles season was a tale of Jekyll and Hyde. In Weeks 1-7, they were operating at a blistering pace while airing the ball out, ranking 11th in passing rate, first in neutral pace, and fourth in no-huddle rate. After Week 7, they dropped to 15th in neutral pace while still incorporating no-huddle (sixth-highest), but they turned in into a run-centric team ranking second in neutral rushing rate.
• It’s uncertain who will be calling plays this year, but it would be shocking if the Lions are burning up the turf and letting Jared Goff fling it at a high rate. After Dan Campbell took over play-calling last year, Detroit was 22nd in neutral pace and 20th in passing rate in close games.

Injuries

• Eagles News – Injury Reports
• Lions News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: The last time Jalen Hurts faced the Lions, the Eagles’ offensive philosophy changed to a run-heavy run often team. Hurts finished the game with only 14 passing attempts and 71 rushing yards as the QB25 on the week. Oh, the difference a year can make. Hurts should cut loose in this game. After an opening drive in the preseason where he passed on every play, the Eagles have signaled that they will let him rip it this year.

Add Hurts’ rushing upside to a matchup where he gets a team that allowed the sixth-highest deep completion rate, most deep passing yards, and tenth-most passing yards overall last season. Hurts was fourth in deep ball rate (minimum 20 deep attempts) and 10th in deep ball accuracy last year. Despite the Lions’ addition of Aiden Hutchinson in the offseason, this is still a team that ranked 29th in pressure rate last year that is taking on arguably a top-five offensive line. Translation: Hurts will have ample time to wind up the deep heaves.

Jared Goff: Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense finished last season on a heater despite missing much of their starting personnel. In Weeks 12-18 last season, Detroit was 13th in EPA per play and seventh in EPA and success rate per dropback. In that stretch, Jared Goff was 13th in EPA per play and 9th in CPOE. Over his final five games, he threw for multiple touchdowns in four games and finished as QB14 or better three times (QB14, QB7, QB8). The Eagles’ zone-heavy defensive scheme that ranked 25th in DVOA against short passing should allow Goff to dink and dunk his way to a solid stat line as a mid QB2. Goff ranked 13th in completion rate against zone coverage last year.

Running Backs

Weeks 12 & 16 with Miles Sanders / Boston Scott above 30% of snaps & Gainwell active

Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell: As you can see above, trying to make sense of this backfield will give you a migraine in two seconds. That three way-split in the only two games with all three of these backs doesn’t even include Jordan Howard being active in Week 16, where he saw nine carries and drew four targets.

While Boston Scott was the red zone back in this sample, there are camp reports that the team plans to use Kenneth Gainwell more in high-leverage situations this year. Yes, the water is murky. Muddy. Disgusting. The allure of even considering any of these backs for your lineup is the matchup. Last year the Lions stunk against running backs in every way imaginable. They were 31st in DVOA against receiving backs. They allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and third-most rushing scores. If you’re in a deep league or staring at a Goliath-like matchup in Week 1 and need a ceiling dart throw, I get it. Still, with so many players making it through camp and the preseason healthy across the league, the reality is you probably have a better option. Each of these backs is an RB3/4 dart throw type. This is without even considering the newly signed Trey Sermon.

Weeks 1-7

D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams: The Eagles were a middling matchup on the ground last year overall for opposing rushers. They were 16th in rushing yards and 18th and 22nd in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. Philadelphia did, however, limit big runs well, ranking fifth in explosive run rate. Jamaal Williams missed this contest last season, but the Eagles managed to limit Swift to 17 touches and 51 total scoreless yards.

Hopefully, Swift is better this time and able to take advantage of a defense that struggled against backs in the passing game. The Eagles saw the third-most targets to opposing backs, surrendering the third-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards. Swift proved last season that when he and Williams are active, he’s the clear leader of the running back room. While they split the early down work down the middle, Swift swallowed up the pass game usage and red zone work. He accounted for 70% of the running back red zone opportunities in the first seven games. With an 18.4% target share (second-highest) in his back pocket last year and the ability to create explosive players (14th in breakaway run rate), Swift is an RB1.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Philadelphia needed a true elite alpha wide receiver and now they have one. Since A.J. Brown first laced up his cleats in the NFL; he’s been one of the most efficient receivers in the game. He’s never finished outside the top 18 in target per route run rate or seventh in yards per route run among wide receivers. He’s operated as a primary outside receiver in his career (79.6%) and I would expect that to continue in Philly. That means he’ll run most of his routes against Amani Oruwariye and Jeffrey Okudah. Oruwariye was surprisingly good last year, allowing a 59.4% catch rate and 60.2 passer rating in coverage. Okudah has been a disaster when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, giving up a 75.5% catch rate (53 targets) and 121.8 passer rating. Brown is also an excellent deep threat, ranking 12th in passer rating on deep targets (minimum 10 deep targets). Brown is a WR1 in this matchup.

Update: A.J. Brown, who is allergic to bees, was stung at practice. He administered his Epi-pen and at the moment there’s no concern of him missing the game.

DeVonta Smith: Speaking of deep threats. This was DeVonta Smith‘s role in his rookie season. Smith was ninth in deep targets and sixth in aDOT last season. With the arrival of Brown, it’ll be interesting to see if Smith’s role in the offense shifts to more of an underneath threat. He led the team with a 22% target share and 39% air yard share while running about 87% of his routes on the outside. He’ll match up with Oruwariye and Okudah this week as well. With Brown the likely top target now, Smith’s ceiling and floor is tied to Hurts’ weekly ceiling. Hurts is the tide that raises all wide receiver ships if the passing volume surprises.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Everyone reading the Primer is well aware of the domination of Amon-Ra St. Brown last year down the stretch, but let’s hit on it for a brief second. In those final six games, he was sixth in weighted opportunity and eighth in yards per route run with a 31.3% target per route run rate. To add context to that target earning ability, if St. Brown had done that throughout the season, only Davante Adams, Antonio Brown, Deonte Harty, A.J. Brown, and Cooper Kupp would have been targeted at a higher rate. Yes, the Lions had injuries, but these are elite numbers, no matter how you look at it. St. Brown operated from the slot on 77% of his snaps last year, and that looks to be the case again in 2022. In the preseason, he ran from the slot on 65% of his snaps and posted a blistering 3.32 yards per route run in his brief playing time. With the trade for Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, it’s unclear who will handle slot coverage duties for Philly this year. It could be Gardner-Johnson or Avonte Maddox. In slot coverage last year, Gardner-Johnson allowed a 70.5% catch rate and 74.5 passer rating. Maddox surrendered a 73.4 % catch rate and 89.7 passer rating. My money would be on Gardner-Johnson, as Philly was ninth in slot receiving touchdowns allowed per game last year.

D.J. Chark: The last time we saw D.J. Chark for an extended period was when he was WR40 in fantasy points per game, dealing with dreadful quarterback play. He finished that season 71st in yards per route run and 56th in target per route rate, running 75% of his routes outside. He’ll match up with Darius Slay and James Bradberry this week. Neither of those is an advantageous draw. Last year Slay allowed a 61.0% catch rate and 76.2 passer rating. Bradberry’s overall numbers with the Giants weren’t impressive (65.2% catch rate, 100.2 passer rating allowed), but transitioning to a zone-heavy defense will be fantastic. Bradberry is still one of the best zone corners in the league, as his struggles last year came when he was asked to play man. Last season Bradberry had the 12th-highest zone corner PFF grade (minimum 50 zone snaps), allowing a 76.5 passer rating in zone coverage. Leave Chark on the bench this week.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: This simple synopsis for both starting tight ends in this game is you’re starting them. If A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith doesn’t go off in this game, Dallas Goedert is the next best bet. In a full-time role last year, Goedert was fifth in target per route run rate, the TE8 in fantasy points per game, and first in yards per route run. He gets a smash matchup against a Lions’ defense that was 29th in DVOA against the position, allowing the second-most receiving yards and fifth-most receptions last year.

T.J. Hockenson: T.J. Hockenson was on his way to another solid fantasy season as the TE7 in fantasy points per game before injury struck. He commanded a 21.0% target share (fifth-best) while ranking 14th in yards per route run. He was tied with Dawson Knox with the seventh-best top 12 fantasy tight end rate last year, per our Boom or Bust Report. The Eagles were also a bottom-five defense against tight ends last year, ranking 27th in DVOA. They allowed the most receptions and receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends.

My DFS Plays

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -3, O/U 47
• Patriots at Dolphins Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game could move at a snail’s pace, but there’s more intrigue on the South Beach side. The assumption with Mike Mcdaniels’ ties to the 49ers is that he could operate similarly. Last season, San Francisco was 29th and 28th in neutral pace and passing rate. These are just assumptions, though, and with the revamped offensive line and the addition of Tyreek Hill, we could be wrong.
• The Patriots, though, are most likely a trudging run-heavy slug again in 2022. Last season they were 31st in neutral pace while holding the league’s highest rushing rate in close contests. The play volume overall is most likely wet blanketed by New England, even if the Dolphins do shock us.

Injuries

• Patriots News – Injury Reports
• Dolphins News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones: Mac Jones is a low-end QB2 this week, bordering on QB3 status. Jones looked rough this preseason, still acclimating to a new offensive system with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas now. Among 67 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks this preseason, he registered the ninth-lowest PFF passing grade with 6.3 yards per attempt and a 70.0% adjusted completion rate (49th). The Patriots could reel in his volume in the opener against a team that was ninth in pass defense DVOA last year, allowing the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate and 12th-lowest yards per attempt. During their two contests, Jones was the QB23 and QB25 in fantasy last season.

Tua Tagovailoa: The Patriots were a buzzsaw against quarterbacks last year shredding every signal caller in their path. They were third in pass defense DVOA, allowing the second-lowest fantasy points per game and fourth-fewest passing touchdowns to quarterbacks. The beauty of the dawning of a new NFL season is the changes that take place from year to year. New England’s loss of J.C. Jackson and Miami gaining Tyreek Hill‘s services are both massive.

Tua Tagovailoa fell apart last year against New England with 6.3 yards per attempt in their two meetings. The problem for Tagovailoa is that Miami didn’t have anyone that could succeed against man coverage outside of Jaylen Waddle (33rd in yard per route run against man). That’s changed with Hill in town. While Tagovailoa is only a middling QB2 this week, don’t write him off from having a solid game here fueled by Waddle and Hill.

Running Backs

Last year with Damien Harris playing 39% or higher snaps & Stevenson active

Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson: Last year Damien Harris operated as the clear leader in the backfield on early downs. Rhamondre Stevenson was the backup who filled in as the lead when Harris was sidelined and worked in tandem with Brandon Bolden eating into his routes during some weeks. That dynamic could change in 2022 as both rushers could see equal shares of this backfield with pass game involvement. Another outcome could lead to Stevenson owning the passing downs while factoring into the rushing volume.

While Damien Harris is miscast as a pass catcher (1.13 yards per route run last year), he is an extremely talented rusher. He was eighth in breakaway run rate, 25th in true yards per carry, and 16th in evaded tackles last year. Stevenson is a versatile every-down threat after ranking 12th in yards after contact and eighth in yards per route run in 2021 (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets).

Both backs could be leaned on heavily this week against a Dolphins’ run defense that was 30th in open field yards and eighth in yards after contact per attempt last year. Miami was stingy against pass-catching backs (ninth in DVOA) and near the goal line (third in red zone rushing defense), so the ceiling isn’t as high for each player, especially splitting the work. Both are best viewed as RB3s with upside this week.

Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert: The Miami Dolphins have handled this backfield like a 1A/1B situation on early downs with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Chase Edmonds played 76.9% of the snaps with Tagovailoa in Week 2 of the preseason before sitting out Week 3. Mostert was on the field for 75% of Tagovailoa’s snaps in Week 3 without Edmonds active. Edmonds still probably has the edge from a route perspective. He ran a route on every snap in Week 2 when he didn’t get a rushing attempt.

Tagovailoa won’t have to do much in this game if the Patriots’ run defense is still swiss cheese like last year. In 2021 they allowed the highest yards after contact in the NFL and the ninth-most rushing yards. They did hold up well near the goal line (10th in rush red-zone defense), but both of these rushers are home run hitters, so if they get into the open field, they’re gone. Edmonds was 11th in breakaway run rate last year. In 2019 Mostert led the NFL in breakaway run rate. Edmonds’ pass game role gives him a sky-high ceiling in this game. Last season the Patriots couldn’t stop receiving backs, ranking 29th in DVOA, giving up the eighth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards. If they break a few long ones, each rusher could find themselves inside the top 20 backs in fantasy scoring this week.

Update: Chase Edmonds has been removed from the injury report (groin) and is expected to be a full-go for Week 1.

Wide Receivers

Jakobi Meyers: The Patriots receiver room could be a usage nightmare with so many players acting as possible rotating chess pieces. Meyers was the team’s leading receiver last year, ranking 20th in target share (24.4%) and 26th in target per route run rate. He was also excellent on a per route basis ranking sixth in win rate overall and fifth against man coverage. He ran about 65% of his routes from the slot last year, so he’ll see Nik Needham in coverage this week. Needham allowed a 72.2% catch rate and 81.4 passer rating last year.

DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne: DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne are nothing more than dice roll desperation flex plays this week. The oft-injured Parker saw his yards per route run and route win rate dip to 56th and 82nd last year. He has flashed top-shelf ability in recent seasons against man coverage, but we’ll see what he has left in the tank this season.

Kendrick Bourne leaves preseason with a rather quiet training camp. It’s surprising after his stellar 2021 season where he was uber efficient. Bourne was the WR37 in fantasy points per game last year. While running about 61% of his routes outside, he was 18th in yards per route run and 31st in win rate against man coverage. Both of these receivers will see Xavien Howard and Noah Igbinoghene for most of the day. Howard gave up a 57.1% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating last season. Igbinoghene was limited to 55 coverage snaps last year, but he got roasted when on the field with a 71.4% catch rate and 139.3 passer rating. Parker or Bourne can get the best of Igbinoghene. Looking at last season’s alignments, Parker probably gets the nod over Bourne as he’ll line up more against Igbinoghene, who should occupy the RCB spot.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: Tua’s twin pillars in the passing game will be active here. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle‘s abilities against man coverage need to stand tall this week. Last year Hill was ninth in yards per route run and the 13th-highest grade wide receiver against man coverage (minimum 20 man coverage targets). Waddle was 21st in PFF grade among wideouts against man and 33rd in yards per route run. Why is this so important? J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills were fifth and sixth among cornerbacks in man coverage snaps last year. Both should soak up hefty target shares as the clear leaders of this aerial assault. Don’t be surprised if Mike McDaniels uses them on screens and the occasional reverse in this game. With the Patriots’ struggles against running backs in the passing game last year, getting these two roadrunners turning on the jets out of the backfield makes too much sense.

If McDaniels also deploys a hefty amount of 12 and 21 personnel this week, Hill and Waddle could be on the perimeter against Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills for most of the game. Jones allowed a 50% catch rate and 78.1 passer rating in man coverage last year, but it was only 16 targets, so take that with a grain of salt. Mills was susceptible to big plays, allowing only a 53.8% catch rate but four receiving touchdowns and a 112.4 passer rating in man coverage.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith: Hunter Henry had a successful first season in New England as the TE15 in fantasy points per game. Henry was 18th in targets and target share at the position while gobbling up deep (10th) and red zone targets (seventh). He logged five top-12 fantasy weeks last year and could start the season with one. Last year Miami was 30th in DVOA against tight ends with the 10th-most receiving yards and 11th-most fantasy points per game.

Mac Jones could lean on both of his talented tight ends in this matchup. Jonnu Smith disappointed heavily in 2021. As the TE38 in fantasy points per game, you’d think the talent had dried up, but that couldn’t be further away from the truth. Smith is still crazy talented. He was simply underutilized last year. He was first in target per route run rate and seventh in yards per route run. Smith is a perfect deep-league tight-end start if you’re up against the wall this week.

Mike Gesicki: If you drafted Mike Gesicki with the hopes of top 12 fantasy production this season, you should be looking for a streaming option this week. The Patriots have been a brick wall against opposing tight ends over the past two seasons, ranking first and ninth in DVOA. Last year they allowed the lowest receiving yardage total and second-lowest fantasy points per game against tight ends. In seven career games against New England, Gesicki has a 47.8% catch rate averaging 1.6 receptions and 15.1 receiving yards.

My DFS Plays

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets

• BAL -7, O/U 44.5
• Ravens at Jets Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• If the Ravens jump out to an early lead, the play volume of this game could surprise. The Jets were 12th in neutral script pace and 19th when trailing last year. Baltimore rose to 13th in pace when playing with a lead in 2021.
• Last year New York was ninth in passing rate when playing from behind.

Injuries

• Ravens News – Injury Reports
• Jets News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Lamar Jackson can carve any defense up. That’s not up for debate. He’s a top 5-10 fantasy quarterback based on his explosive rushing ability alone. I bring this all up because many will look at this Week 1 matchup and begin salivating. Yes, the Jets’ pass defense was a trainwreck last year. They were 32nd in pass defense DVOA while allowing the fourth-most passing yards, fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and ranking seventh in adjusted completion rate allowed. This offseason, the front office remade the roster on this side of the ball with the additions of Kwon Alexander, Jordan Whitehead, D.J. Reed, and draft picks Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson. Jackson is an automatic QB1 option gracing your lineup, but this isn’t the slam dunk matchup that it looks like when peering at last year’s defensive stats.

Joe Flacco: Take Baltimore’s secondary stats and toss them in the trash from last year. This defense was decimated by injury. While Joe Flacco facing off against his former team is interesting, that isn’t a reason to consider Flacco for fantasy. This defense will more closely resemble the one that finished 10th in pass defense DVOA in 2020, allowing the fourth-lowest net yards gained per pass attempt. Over Flacco’s last five NFL starts, he’s only managed to finish higher than QB16 in weekly scoring once (QB14).

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins, Mike Davis, and Kenyan Drake: With J.K. Dobbins‘ health and workload up in the air, it isn’t easy to trust any of these rushers in your Week 1 lineup. Only three times last year did a Ravens’ running back garner more than 50% of the backfield rushing share in a game, so starting any of these backs with conviction is a fool’s errand. You’re whispering lies to yourself that are difficult to believe.

If you’re forced to plug one in your flex, I get it in deeper leagues. If the Jets are close to as bad against the run this year, there is upside here. Last year New York allowed the fourth-most rushing yards while also ranking 25th in explosive run rate allowed.

Update: Start J.K. Dobbins at your own risk. He’s been listed as questionable after limited practices all week.

Breece Hall and Michael Carter: The Jets have been proclaiming all camp that Michael Carter is the team’s starter, but we will likely see Carter and Breece Hall in a fairly even split to open the year. Out the gate, Carter does get the nod over Hall in how I’m projecting their volume this week. That comes down to the passing game which I expect Carter to have a slight lead in routes. Last year Carter was exceptional, so, understandably, the team doesn’t want to bury him on the depth chart. He ranked 12th in yards created per touch and 14th in yards per route run. He was RB24 or better in weekly scoring in 62.5% of the games last year, in which he played at least 50% of the snaps.

This isn’t to say Hall is a scrub in any way because he isn’t. Hall ranked inside the top 22 and top seven in breakaway run rate and missed tackles forced during his final two seasons in college (minimum 100 rushing attempts). The big play ability is there for sure. Both backs could succeed this week with that explosive play-making ability against a Raven’s run defense that has had a knack for giving up long runs over the last two seasons. While Baltimore ranked third in red zone run defense last year, they were 19th in open field yards (25th in 2020). The Ravens also allowed the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Getting back to why Carter gets the nudge here because of his passing game prowess. In Week 3 of the preseason Carter edged out Hall with 12 snaps to Hall’s nine. He also ran seven routes versus Hall’s two. The Ravens were abysmal against running backs as pass catchers last season. They ranked 30th in DVOA, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs despite finishing 21st in receptions.

Wide Receivers

Rashod Bateman: Rashod Bateman steps into the number one receiver role alongside Mark Andrews as the twin pillars of the Baltimore passing attack. Despite Baltimore’s penchant for rushing, they will also have to throw it, and with their consolidated target tree, Bateman is in line for a bevy of volume. Marquise Brown finished last season as the WR21 in fantasy points per game as he saw the ninth-most targets (145) and 12th-highest target share (26.7%) among wide receivers. These numbers are attainable for Bateman, who flashed big-time talent, ranking 38th in overall route win rate and 26th in route win rate against man coverage. Bateman ran about 82% of his routes out wide last year, so he’ll see Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed for most of the game. Gardner is a rookie, and we usually see growing pains from first-year corners but allowing a 43.0% catch rate (135 targets) and 31.8 passer rating in college is nonetheless impressive. Reed was an awesome pickup for New York, who gave up a 51.5% catch rate and 66.0 passer rating last year.

Elijah Moore: Elijah Moore teased us last year with upside, but this season he could truly break out and cement himself among the league’s best up-and-coming receivers. In Weeks 7-13, Moore was the WR3 in fantasy scoring averaging 8.1 targets, five receptions, and 67.4 receiving yards per game. He excelled at getting open when he was on the field, ranking ninth in route win rate and 15th in win rate against man coverage. He gets a tall task in Week 1, running about 70% of his routes against Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. Peters missed all of last year due to injury, but the prior year he allowed a 62.2% catch rate and 81.0 passer rating. Humphrey remains one of the best cornerbacks in the league despite a down year by his standards, giving up a 54.7% catch rate and 98.4 passer rating in coverage.

Update: Marcus Peters has been listed as questionable (knee). If Peters misses the Ravens could move Kyle Fuller outside or roll with one of rookies Damarion Williams or Jalyn Armour-Davis.

Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, and Garrett Wilson: Based on Week 3 of the preseason usage, where Moore, Corey Davis (80.9% snaps), and Braxton Berrios (52.3% snaps) were the starting trio with Joe Flacco, Garrett Wilson is not startable in Week 1. Davis ran all of his routes out wide while Berrios was in the slot for 50% of his playing time. That slot rate should climb in-season. Corey Davis and his 43rd ranked yards per route run and 46th target per route run rate, which is catching passes from Flacco, doesn’t have much appeal, but Berrios is a nice deep play for dynasty leagues and DFS degens.

Berrios was WR24 and WR5 in fantasy scoring during his final two games played last year. He ran from the slot on 74% of his snaps last year, carving up opposing corners. He was third in route win rate, seventh in win rate against man coverage, and 14th in target rate against man coverage. Berrios will match up with the Ravens’ new slot corner Kyle Fuller who was roasted last year with a 71.8% catch rate and 127.9 passer rating allowed.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Mark Andrews was a fantasy behemoth last year as the TE1 in fantasy points per game. Over his final nine games, he finished below TE5 in weekly scoring only once. He was top three at the position in air yard share, receptions, receiving yards, and yards per route run. The Jets should offer him a runway to pick up right where he left off. Last year New York was 31st in DVOA against the position, allowing the sixth-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards, and fifth-most fantasy points per game.

Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah: If you’re searching for a deep league streaming option Tyler Conklin fits the bill. In Week 3 of the preseason, he looked like the majority leader in the Jets’ tight end room. He played 95.2% of the snaps with Joe Flacco while besting C.J. Uzomah (52.4% snaps) in routes run (nine vs. six). Conklin was the 17th-highest graded tight end last season per PFF (minimum 20 targets) while ranking 16th in YAC per reception and fifth in missed tackles forced. Baltimore offers an advantageous matchup as they were top-four in receptions (second), receiving yards (third), and fantasy points per game (fourth) last season.

My DFS Plays

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -3, O/U 44
• Jaguars at Commanders Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Doug Pederson’s final two seasons in Philadelphia, his offense ranked 14th and 17th in neutral script pace and passing rate.
• Each team projects to be slightly above average in pace this year so this game could surprise in terms of overall play volume.
• Since Scott Turner has been calling plays for Washington, the team has been 14th and 19th in neutral script pace and passing frequency. Over that span, they are 14th in red zone passing rate.

Injuries

• Jaguars News – Injury Reports
• Commanders News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: In his inaugural start of the new Doug Pederson era, Trevor Lawrence has been gifted a plus matchup to prove the source of his struggles last year was due to his former flameout head coach. Washington was 28th in pass defense DVOA last season, allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt, most passing touchdowns, and second-highest first read completion rate (Hello Christian Kirk). The Commanders were only 19th in pressure rate last year, so Lawrence should have ample time in the pocket.

Carson Wentz: Carson Wentz is nothing more than a low-end QB2 this week. Yes, the Jaguars’ pass defense wasn’t sparkling last year (31st in DVOA), but this isn’t last year’s defense. Wentz has been known to implode when pressured, ranking fourth and 14th in danger plays over the last two seasons. Jacksonville’s addition of Travon Walker to Josh Allen and Dawuane Smoot could be Wentz’s undoing. Last year Washington allowed Taylor Heinicke to face the 12th-highest hurry and pressure rate. Jacksonville was 14th in hurry rate and quarterback knockdown rate last year before Walker’s addition. Allen and Smoot were excellent, ranking 27th and 30th (out of 135 defensive ends, minimum 100 pass rush snaps) in pass rush win rate in 2021.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne and James Robinson: In this matchup, the Jaguars will struggle to move the ball on the ground. Last year their offensive line was ranked 24th and 19th in second-level and open field yards. That isn’t the biggest problem. Washington was a run-stopping juggernaut in 2021. They surrendered the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and fifth-lowest rushing yards while also sporting the league’s best red zone rushing defense. If you were already squeamish about playing James Robinson, this should take him out of consideration for Week 1.

As the projected passing down back, Travis Etienne can still walk away from this game with a healthy fantasy day through the air. Washington faced the ninth-most running back targets last year, ranking 14th in receptions and first in receiving touchdowns. Etienne was 14th and fourth in yards per route run in his final two seasons at Clemson (minimum 20 targets). Anything Etienne gives him on early downs this week should be considered icing on the cake.

Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic: Last year was a tale of two halves for the Jaguars’ run defense. In Weeks 1-9, they looked like an above-average to shutdown unit, depending on what metrics you’re staring at. They were 13th in success rate allowed and held opposing teams to the second-lowest explosive run rate. After Week 9, it was a different story as they bled out the ninth-highest rush EPA, 12th-highest success rate, and fell to 17th in explosive run rate. Adding Walker, an above-average run defender, will help, but the chef’s kiss was their additions of Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma. They had the second and 16th highest PFF grades among collegiate linebackers (minimum 100 run defense snaps) last year against the run.

Weeks 1-12

Last year when the backfield was only Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic essentially for the first 12 weeks, Gibson averaged 19 touches and 82.3 total yards. He operated as the team’s red zone back with a tertiary role in the passing game. McKissic, over the same timeframe, was the primary passing-down back, averaging 8.3 touches (4.8 targets) and 55.4 total yards. Let’s be clear this is a horrendous matchup for pass-catching backs as Jacksonville was fourth in DVOA last year, allowing the fifth-lowest receptions and sixth-lowest receiving yards. This takes McKissic out of flex consideration, perhaps only in deeper dynasty formats. Gibson is the defacto early down back facing a tough matchup with a coaching staff that has declared they have no faith in him, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him lose red zone work to McKissic. Gibson’s nothing more than a volume flex play in Week 1.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: Christian Kirk is, without a doubt, the number one wide receiver for this team. He was targeted on an insane 36.3% of his preseason routes while playing 50% of his snaps in the slot. I expect his slot usage to bump up in the regular season. Kirk excelled from the slot last year, ranking 22nd in slot yards per route run (minimum 15 slot targets). In Weeks 9-18, with DeAndre Hopkins less than 100%, he was the WR35 in fantasy points per game. Currently, the team page has Benjamin St.-Juste projected as the team’s starting slot corner. I’d be surprised if that happens. St.-Juste is a bigger, slow corner (25th percentile burst score) who played outside last year, allowing a 64.9% catch rate and 114.5 passer rating. I expect Kendall Fuller to move inside this week to tangle with Kirk. Last year Fuller allowed a 65.5% catch rate and 68.0 passer rating in slot coverage.

Marvin Jones and Zay Jones: Last year Marvin Jones was the team’s leading receiver with a 20% target share and 31% air yard share. He saw a ridiculous 46% endzone target share and 31% red zone target share. He led the team with 23 deep targets last year, notable as Washington was 29th in DVOA against deep passing last season. He’ll tangle with St.-Juste or Fuller (whoever starts opposite William Jackson) and Jackson. Fuller was more susceptible as an outside corner last season overall. He allowed a 67% catch rate and 90.1 passer rating. Jackson was not the shutdown corner the Commanders hoped they were signing as he gave up a 58.5% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating.

Zay Jones will start opposite Marvin Jones and match up with Jackson and his outside running mate. Zay Jones could take the deep role from Marvin Jones this year. Last season he was 13th in aDOT as he was second on Las Vegas in deep targets. He was inefficient as the 42nd highest graded deep receiver (out of 70 with a minimum of 10 deep targets) per PFF. For deep leagues, if you’re tossing a dart, I’d rather bet on Zay Jones in the hopes he connects with Lawrence on a deep shot.

Terry McLaurin: Terry McLaurin led Washington last year with a 24% target share and 42% of the team’s air yards as the WR29 in fantasy. He also gobbled up end zone targets with a 31% share. Shaquill Griffin can keep up with him with his 4.3 speed, but Tyson Campbell could be a step behind with his 4.4 speed and 39th percentile burst score. Griffin gave up a 69.5% catch rate and 110.6 passer rating last year. Campbell wasn’t any better, surrendering a 67.1% catch rate and 100.7 passer rating in coverage.

Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel: Speaking of speed on the outside, Jahan Dotson will be the starting outside receiver opposite Mclaurin. Dotson is familiar with bad quarterback play from his days at Penn State. Wentz might actually be a godsend in his eyes. Dotson leaves Penn State with a 96th percentile target share and 91st percentile college dominator. He’ll see Griffin and Campbell for most of the day.

Curtis Samuel assumes the starting slot role after a lost 2021 season that limited him to five games and eight total targets. He lined up inside on 84.2% of his preseason snaps. The last time we saw a healthy version of Samuel, he was the WR27 (2020), ranking 28th in yards per route run. Darious Williams arrives from Los Angeles, assuming the starting nickel role. Williams only played there sparingly last year (65 coverage snaps, six targets), allowing a 50% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: While the matchup is nice for Evan Engram, I am skeptical that he has a standout game here. Engram is positioned as a possible bounceback candidate on opportunity alone this season, but he was among the worst tight ends in the NFL last year. Among tight ends with at least 20 targets, he had the seventh-lowest PFF receiving grade and fifth-lowest yards per route run. Washington was 14th in fantasy points per game, and receptions allowed to tight ends while also bleeding out the ninth-most receiving yards to the position.

Logan Thomas: Logan Thomas isn’t sure if he will be suiting up in Week 1. That’s enough to take him out of consideration for our lineups. Even if he does give it a go, it could be in a limited capacity against a team that held tight ends to the ninth-fewest receiving touchdowns and 14th-fewest fantasy points per game last year.

My DFS Plays