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The last five years of my life have passed like a whirlwind. The ups and downs. The late nights. The struggles and the triumphs. As one of the newest personalities at FantasyPros and the new author of the Primer weekly, I would love to give everyone some backstory without getting too long-winded. In instances like this, it’s important to take stock of where you’ve been to understand where you’re going.
I still remember the first article I wrote breaking into this space, published on May 26, 2017. It covered “2017 Rebound Candidates,” and Carson Palmer was the poster boy. (Shout out to my lifelong friend Willie Lovato for giving me my start) I typed up this short soliloquy on a cheap Chromebook that I purchased at Best Buy on a whim. I was looking for a hobby to take up some time after my family, and I had just relocated to Texas for my then profession (pediatric nurse). At the time, I never thought about doing this as anything more than a hobby. If I made some whiskey money in the process (I always used to refer to this as beer money, but sadly I am not a beer connoisseur), then so be it, but that wasn’t the goal.
I loved fantasy football just as much as I loved being a pediatric oncology nurse with every fiber of my being. I have never been the scholarly type, as I think I’ve only read maybe five books in my entire life, cover to cover. No, I’m the slacker who somehow managed to bs his way through high school essays using CliffNotes and an energetic vocabulary. So the fact that I’m writing this at the moment for you would be a shock to the system to 18-year-old me. Even 35-year-old me wouldn’t believe it. A writer? No way.
I pressed on, writing for any fantasy site that would have me. Trying to help fantasy gamers in any way I could through DMs, tweets, etc. I was also trying to get my Chromebook scribblings in front of as many eyes as possible. Not for notoriety, but with the simple aim of helping people with the same fantasy decisions I struggled with. That was (is) the goal, as cliche and corny as it sounds. It’s true.
That has (and will) remain the reason that I do this. It’s VERY important to me. I still recall tweeting fantasy questions weekly, tagging fantasy writers in the hopes that they would provide me with a compass for my fantasy conundrums. Most of them (nearly all of them) went unanswered. There was one person that was diligent in answering anything I could think of. Either via tweet or during Q&As on his website, Lights Out Fantasy Football.
His name was Mike Tagliere.
Tags and his wife Tabbie always kept me entertained and informed. The information was incredibly researched but also actionable.
I kept following Tags’ work as he branched out and eventually landed at FantasyPros. I even found the courage to send him a DM asking for feedback on an article I was working on. A few days went by, and nothing. I was sure he probably hit the delete button or kept scrolling through his DMs, attending to more pressing matters. A few days later, I logged onto Twitter to find an encyclopedia of feedback in a single DM from Tags. Looking back, I shouldn’t have been shocked because that was Tags just being Tags.
Everything he typed in that DM pushed me. To research more. To read more. To be better.
So I kept producing content, trying to improve in any way I could. Fast forward to May 2020. My aim remained the same, but now I was a father of three and going on five months as an unemployed and burnt-out nurse. I was scared. What was I going to do with the rest of my life? How would I find another profession I loved as much as nursing?
Then out of the blue, an offer to step into this space full-time presented itself. I was so shocked I didn’t believe it. The first thing I did was reach out to Tags. Over the years after that first DM, we became friends. Talking about life struggles, fantasy, DFS, and more. I asked him about his decision to become a full-time writer. I’ll never be able to thank him fully for the counsel and mentorship he provided me. It kept me writing and is a big reason I’m typing this right now.
As someone who loved Tags and greatly respected his work and the person he was, after joining the FantasyPros staff, I struggled with the decision to write this article weekly. After much internal debate, I said yes.
I’ll never be Tags. No one will. He’s a legend who will be forever missed.
What I can promise the weekly readers of this article and subs at FantasyPros is that, like Tags, I will give my all. To research more. To read more. To be better. Always.
And with all that being said, here’s my first installment of the Primer.
BUF vs. LAR | NO vs. ATL | SF vs. CHI | PIT vs. CIN | PHI vs. DET | NE vs. MIA | BAL vs. NYJ | JAC vs. WSH | CLE vs. CAR | IND vs. HOU | NYG vs. TEN | GB vs. MIN | KC vs. ARI | LV vs. LAC | TB vs. DAL | DEN vs. SEA |
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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
- NO -5, O/U 42
- Saints at Falcons Betting Matchup via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last season, with a depleted skill position department, New Orleans was 24th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral rushing rate. We could see both change dramatically this year with a revamped receiver group.
- The Saints were also second in red zone rushing rate. With Jameis Winston still recovering, we could see this remain early on.
- The Falcons ranked 14th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate last season, but with Marcus Mariota under center, we could see this change. If it doesn’t, though, we’re probably underrating the passing volume for this offense.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston: Jameis Winston throws down with a dirty bird defense that was 29th in pass defense DVOA, allowing the third-most passing touchdowns last year. Dean Pees’ zone-based scheme was middle of the road against the deep ball (15th in DVOA vs. deep passing), but they were carved up underneath (30th in DVOA vs. short passing). Yes, this doesn’t exactly fit Winston’s propensity to chuck it deep, but there’s a path for Winston to wind up deep in Week 1. The Falcons were also dreadful against play-action passing, finishing with the sixth-highest play-action completion rate and 12th-highest play-action yards per attempt difference last season. Winston was fifth in aDOT and the sixth-highest graded play-action passer per PFF (minimum 100 dropbacks). Winston’s in play as an upside QB2 option.
Marcus Mariota: While I’m still higher than the field on Marcus Mariota‘s full-season outlook should he hold the job, this isn’t the week to consider starting him. The Saints were fourth in pass defense DVOA last year, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They also gave up the 10th-lowest adjusted completion rate and 12th-lowest yards per attempt.
Running Backs
2021 Weeks 8, 9,15, & 16 with both Alvin Kamara & Mark Ingram active
| Player | Rushing Attempts | Targets | Red-Zone Opportunities | Routes |
| Alvin Kamara | 56 | 21 | 10 | 82 |
| Mark Ingram | 28 | 9 | 2 | 44 |
Alvin Kamara: Last season after Mark Ingram was acquired by New Orleans, we only got a brief four-game sample with Ingram and Alvin Kamara both active. In that short stretch, Kamara was the unquestioned lead back. He played at least 60% of the snaps in each game, averaging 16.7 touches and 67.5 total yards with an 18.5% target share. He gobbled up all of the work inside the 20.
If Atlanta is as stout on the ground as they were last year, he’ll have a long day in the rushing department. The Falcons allowed the second-lowest open field yards while also ranking 13th in explosive run rate allowed. However, Kamara can still have a productive day because Atlanta was swiss cheese against running backs near the goal line and through the air. They were 31st in red zone rushing defense (seventh-most rushing touchdowns allowed) and gave up ninth-most receptions to backs. Kamara is a locked-in RB1.
Mark Ingram: Mark Ingram showed that he wasn’t ready for the retirement home last year by filling in for Alvin Kamara, but he wasn’t playable with Kamara active. He wasn’t even in touchdown or bust flex territory without a red zone role. In the four games, they were active together, he averaged 9.3 touches and 38.5 total yards while playing only 39% of the snaps.
Cordarrelle Patterson: Cordarrelle Patterson began the season in a swiss army knife role before rolling into a traditional running back role. In Weeks 1-10, Patterson played running back on 56.2% of his snaps and outside or in the slot on 37.7% of his snaps. He was a running back for 69.9% of his snaps for the rest of the season, with only 29.5% of his playing time coming as a receiver. Patterson flourished in the multipurpose role. He was the RB10 through the first ten weeks before dipping to RB31 over his final seven weeks.
New Orleans remains a tough draw for running backs. Last year they continued to field a stellar run defense, ranking inside the top nine in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards allowed. The Saints were elite on the ground and through the air vs. backs ranking third in DVOA against receiving backs and sporting the fourth-best red zone rushing defense. Patterson is nothing more than a low-end flex play against a team that surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points per game against running backs.
Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier: One of these rushers will likely work in tandem with Patterson as an early down compliment. The problem is that it could easily be both, thus creating a disgusting three-headed monster for rushing work with Patterson gobbling up the routes. Until we see how the backfield usage shakes out behind Patterson, these two should be parked firmly on your bench.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas: Before his hamstring injury in camp, every report from Saints camp was glowing about Michael Thomas. The last time we saw the artist formerly known as “Slant Boy,” he finished as the WR41 in fantasy points per game, but his efficiency metrics were still quite good. In 2020 he ranked 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) and fourth in target share (27.9%) and targets per route run.
That season, he played almost 72% of his snaps on the perimeter. Considering Jarvis Landry is in town, Thomas could again be primarily a boundary receiver. If that’s the case, he could have a disappointing outing in his return in Week 1. Atlanta added Casey Hayward as an outside running mate with A.J. Terrell this season. Last year Terrell was stellar, allowing a 43.9% catch rate and 47.5 passer rating in coverage. Hayward also enjoyed a bounceback season, proving he still has plenty left in the tank giving up a 50.8% catch rate and 76.1 passer rating.
Update: Michael Thomas practiced Friday and sounds like he’ll play Sunday. Monitor his status through the weekend and tune into our Sunday live streams for the up to date info.
Jarvis Landry: As their skill position depth chart cratered into oblivion last year, the Saints dipped to 53% usage of three wide receiver sets on passing downs. That number will come up this season. In the three seasons prior, they deployed 11 personnel on 63-65% of their passing plays. While he’s not the sexiest name in fantasy football, Landry is still a dependable slot receiver that can earn targets at a high rate. He hasn’t finished lower than WR37 in fantasy points per game in the last four years. Last season he was 18th in target share (24.7%) and 13th in target per route run rate. While both numbers will be hard to sniff this year, Landry is worth flex consideration here. In 2021 he played approximately 59% of his snaps from the slot, and if that’s true in the Big Easy, he’ll draw the best corner matchup in this game. Isaiah Oliver and Darren Hall could split slot coverage duties. Oliver gave up a 60% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating last season, while Hall was even worse (77.5% catch rate, 114.8 passer rating allowed). Kamara and Landry could be Winston’s favorite targets this week.
Update: Darren Hall is questionable. If he misses it’ll be Oliver in the slot to cover Landry.
Chris Olave: Talented rookie wide receiver Chris Olave could spend this season filing in as anything from the second target in the pecking order to the third or fourth option in Jameis Winston‘s Rolodex. If Winston decides to dial it up deep, Olave should be his guy. Last season Jameis Winston was fifth in aDOT (10.0) and second in big-time throw rate (7.1%) behind only Kyler Murray (minimum 100 dropbacks). In Olave’s collegiate career, 40.8% of his receiving yardage and 60% of his receiving touchdowns came on targets 20 or more yards downfield. While Terrell and Hayward are no slouches, that doesn’t mean Olave can’t get behind them for a long score this week, especially Hayward. Last year in Hayward’s two less than stellar outings where he allowed 90 or more yards in coverage, he matched up with Michael Gallup, Mike Williams, and Jalen Guyton. Sensing a trend here? Speed and vertical threats. Sound familiar? Olave is a thinner flex play with upside.
Drake London: Assuming Drake London is fully recovered from his preseason knee injury, he can give Kyle Pitts a run for his money as the team’s target leader beginning Week 1. London crushed in his final season at USC with a 24.8% target share while ranking fifth in yards per route run among FBS wide receivers (minimum 50 targets). Despite flashing the prowess to play outside and beat man coverage last year, Russell Gage still ran nearly 50% of his routes from the slot. This type of usage beckons London against the Saints. Marshon Lattimore shadowed four times last season but only spent a total of 14 snaps in the slot in those games (6.1% slot overall last season), so getting London matched up inside against P.J. Williams or Tyrann Mathieu shouldn’t be a problem. When Lattimore, who allowed a 57.4% catch rate and 99.7 passer rating last season, isn’t matched up with London on the outside, he’ll see Paulson Adebo. Adebo is the weakest corner that New Orleans has, giving up a 65.0% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating in his rookie season.
Williams allowed a 78.1% catch rate and 58.0 passer rating in coverage last season. Mathieu gave up a 66.7% catch rate and 55.0 passer rating in slot coverage last year with Kansas City. London’s size advantage against Williams (6’4″ vs. 6’0″) and Mathieu (6’4″ vs. 5’9″) shouldn’t be dismissed.
Update: Drake London has been listed as questionable. I’m expecting him to play unless there’s a pregame setback.
Olamide Zaccheaus and Bryan Edwards: Neither of these wide receivers should be on your radar to start this week (or this season, haha). Olamide Zaccheaus did see his slot rate increase in his limited preseason action to 57.1% from 44.3% last year. Still, the leaders of this passing attack are London and Kyle Pitts, so it’s more likely that Zaccheaus and Edwards are sacrificed to Lattimore on the outside. Zaccheaus and Edwards each finished outside the top 87 wide receivers last year in target share, target per route run rate, and yards per route run.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson, Adam Trautman, Taysom Hill, and Nick Vannett: There’s desperate, and there’s crazy. Starting any of these tight ends in fantasy in Week qualifies as the latter. This looks like a committee situation where each player could garner snaps and routes depending on the situation. Atlanta was ranked 22nd in DVOA against tight ends last year after allowing the fourth-most receiving touchdowns. The Falcons also held opposing tight ends to the ninth-lowest receiving yardage mark. Touchdowns aren’t sticky, and you shouldn’t be rolling the dice here, praying for a short score.
Kyle Pitts: In his inaugural season, Kyle Pitts broke the mold for rookie tight end expectations partially because he was only a tight end in title. He lined up in the slot or outside on many of his plays. He finished as the TE11 in weekly scoring despite only getting into the endzone once. He ranked sixth in target share (20.3%), fourth in yards per route run, and third in receiving yards at the position.
The Saints have been tough on tight ends for a long time, ranking top eight in DVOA in each of the last four seasons. While Pitts’ usage might be the exception, he was shut down like many tight ends before him in their two meetings averaging six targets, 2.5 receptions, and 35 receiving yards. What could help him is similar usage to what I’m projecting to London. Last year he played in the slot or inline on 65.6% of his plays. This increased to 71.5% in the preseason. Getting him matched up on a linebacker or slot corner should be a point of emphasis. Demario Davis is a plus coverage linebacker, but Pete Werner isn’t. Werner registered a 61.8 PFF coverage grade last year and a 72.4% catch rate allowed.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
- SF -7, O/U 41.5
- 49ers vs. Bears Betting Matchup vs BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- This could be the slowest-paced game of the week. Last year the 49ers ranked 29th in neutral pace while Luke Getsy assisted the Packers in ranking 32nd.
- If the betting line is correct, this game could be run-heavy. Last year Getsy oversaw an offense that had the sixth-highest trailing rushing rate. The 49ers were fourth in rushing rate when playing with a lead of seven points or more.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Trey Lance: Trey Lance is set to come storming out the gate. The Bears offer a beautiful matchup to hit the ground running (pardon the pun). Last season in his brief two-game starter stint, we witnessed his rushing upside as he averaged 12 carries and 60 yards on the ground as the QB20 and QB10 in weekly scoring. Lance also displayed a propensity to push the ball vertically, which should serve him well here. Last year he was second in aDOT and yards per attempt among quarterbacks with at least 80 dropbacks.
Despite their offseason upgrades to the secondary, we shouldn’t view the Bears as a league-average defense (not yet, at least). Last season they were fifth in yards per attempt and third in passing touchdowns allowed. They struggled to defend the deep ball, allowing the most deep passing touchdowns in the NFL and the fifth-highest deep passer rating. Add in that they were tied for second in rushing scores allowed to quarterbacks, and Lance has QB1 overall upside in his first week as the starter.
Justin Fields: The last time Justin Fields faced the 49ers’ defense, he completed 70.4% of his passes while chewing up 103 yards on the ground as the QB5 for the week. While Fields is talented and can rip off long runs at the drop of a hat, this should be an improved 49ers defense. Their secondary was in shambles last year, which entering Week 1 isn’t the case. The outside tandem of Emmanuel Moseley and Charvarius Ward should be stout, with second-rounder Drake Jackson assisting Nick Bosa with getting push up front. Fields’ rushing upside alone gives him top 12 upside, and he’ll need it this week. The 49ers allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last year, so there’s a path to upside here in fantasy football, even if his passing numbers are muted this week.
Running Backs
Elijah Mitchell: Last year Elijah Mitchell finished as the RB14 in fantasy points per game purely off of volume averaging 20.5 touches and 100 total yards. He ranked third in opportunity share with the 13th-most carries in only 11 games played. With a rushing quarterback now under center and a 7.0% target share last season, pass game involvement won’t be his path to fantasy success. The Bears lost Akeem Hicks in the offseason which won’t help their run defense despite their attempts to bring in savy veterans like Mike Pennel.
The Bears allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and missed tackles last year. While Mitchell was only 30th in breakaway run rate there’s an opportunity for big plays here against a Windy City front that was 26th in explosive run rate allowed in 2021.
Jeff Wilson, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Jordan Mason: None of these backs are startable in Week 1 if Mitchell is active and presumed fully healthy. Wilson didn’t register a touch in three of the four games Wilson and Mitchell were active. In that quartet of games, he never crested 20% of the snaps played. It’s possible Wilson works in tandem more with Mitchell this year, but that would be a blind faith or projection play, and there’s no reason to get cute in Week 1.
David Montgomery: This is a nightmare matchup for the Bears’ backfield, no matter how you slice it. David Montgomery is similar to Mitchell in that he was a volume superstar last year, which propelled his fantasy value to RB12 in fantasy points per game. Montgomery finished with the second-highest snap share and fourth in opportunity share. He averaged 19.5 touches and 88.5 total yards per game. Rumors have already trickled out that this will be more of a committee this year, but we don’t know to what extent.
Even if we knew Montgomery was reprising his old role, he’d be difficult to trust as an RB2, much less a flex play. The 49ers return the core of their defense, which was nightmare fuel for running backs in 2021. Last year this front ranked second in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards. They were second in red zone rushing defense and fourth in DVOA against receiving backs. If you’re considering plugging Montgomery into your flex this week, don’t. Even going with a matchup-based wide receiver in that spot is probably preferable.
Khalil Herbert and Trestan Ebner: These two talented rushers are not startable this week. With an unknown workload share for either and a vomit-inducing matchup on deck, it’s better to let them simmer on your bench.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel: Before Deebo Samuel went full “wide back” mode last year, he was one of the best receivers in the NFL. Last year in Weeks 1-9, he was the WR2 in fantasy points per game behind only Cooper Kupp. Samuel led all wide receivers in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets per PFF). He averaged an insane 10.1 targets, 6.1 receptions, and 110.3 receiving yards per game. This week he’ll reaffirm the 49ers’ faith and their investment in him against a burnable Bears’ secondary. He led the team in deep targets last year, and he squares off against a team that was putrid 20-plus yards downfield. Samuel will run about 65% of his routes on the perimeter against Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor. Johnson was the Bears’ best corner last season, but he still allowed a 56.9% catch rate and 102.8 passer rating. Vildor, on the other hand, should be handing out Gatorades weekly instead of garnering starter snaps. He was a turnstile last year, giving up a 71.4% catch rate and 136.6 passer rating. While I am concerned about Samuel’s season-long volume outlook, this is a matchup he should smash.
Brandon Aiyuk: After Kyle Shanahan let Brandon Aiyuk out of the doghouse, he played 90% or higher snaps in each game after Week 9. Once he was running as a full-time starter, he was top-shelf efficient as he was 13th in yards per route run and the sixth-highest graded wide receiver per PFF (minimum 20 targets). If Samuel doesn’t roast these Windy City corners deep, it’ll be Aiyuk who was second on the team in deep targets. In Weeks 10-18, he led the team with a 22.1% target share and 26.7% air yard share, with Samuel excelling at his best running back impression. Aiyuk will run about 74% of his routes against Johnson and Vildor.
Jauan Jennings: Even in the deepest of leagues, Jauan Jennings isn’t worth starting. After becoming a starter last season, he only eclipsed 60% snaps in two games. Over that stretch, he averaged only 3.6 targets, 2.3 receptions, and 27.9 receiving yards per game, seeing a 12.7% target share (15.4% air yard share).
Darnell Mooney: Darnell Mooney enters this season as the unquestioned leading receiver for the Chicago Bears. He proved up to the task last season in the five games without Allen Robinson on the field, as Mooney averaged 9.6 targets and 78.2 receiving yards per game. The yardage mark per game would have been the seventh-highest mark. Mooney used his 4.3 speed to rank 27th in route win rate and 11th in win rate against man coverage. Last year he moved interchangeably inside (43.6% slot) and out (55.6% perimeter). He’ll see plenty of Emmanuel Moseley and Charvarius Ward on the boundaries. Moseley allowed a 60.8% catch rate and 78.0 passer rating last year. Ward was also tough, giving up a 51.0% catch rate and 73.6 passer rating. The Bears’ best hope is in the slot against rookie Samuel Womack lll out of Toledo. In his final season at Toledo, Womack used his 4.4 speed (pro day clocked) to limit opposing receivers to a 38.4% catch rate and 15.2 passer rating in the slot. This is the NFL, though, so the step up in competition is real, and we see rookie corners usually struggle out the gate, so look for the Bears to challenge Womack early.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: George Kittle was his usual outstanding self last year as the TE4 in fantasy points per game, finishing top three in target share, target per route run rate, and yards per route run at the position. He’s my third favorite San Francisco pass catcher this week, though. The Bears were 14th in DVOA against the position last year, allowing the second-lowest receiving yardage total to tight ends. Considering the position, though, he’s a must-start. Alan Williams, the Bears’ new defensive coordinator, was the Colts’ secondary coach from 2018-2021, so we can expect the team to install a more zone-heavy approach under Williams and Matt Ebrerflus. Indy had no issue giving up points to opposing tight ends last year, with the seventh-most receiving yards and eighth-most fantasy points per game surrendered to the position.
Update: George Kittle is dealing with a groin issue. The 49ers don’t need him to win this game. I lean that they sit him. Even if he plays, his projections should be muted. If Kittle misses, don’t target any tight ends from the 49ers to stream and bump up Brandon Aiyuk in your rankings.
Cole Kmet: Cole Kmet has to score a touchdown this year. Right? Last season he ranked inside the top 12 amongst tight ends in targets (eighth), target share (11th), receiving yards (12th), and air yard share (11th), but he finished with zero touchdowns. Kmet should be heavily involved after being targeted on 33.3% of his routes in the preseason. However, this is a difficult matchup; you should consider other options if you have them or available streamers. The 49ers were fifth in DVOA against the position last year, allowing the second-lowest receiving yardage total and fifth-lowest receptions to tight ends.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- CIN -6.5, O/U 44.5
- Steelers vs. Bengals Betting Matchup via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last season the Steelers were 11th in neutral pace and passing rate. With a new quarterback under center, we could see both the pace and passing rate decline. The passing rate is the more problematic of the two.
- The Bengals relied upon efficiency in 2021. Their offensive pace was a huge problem as they were 28th in neutral situations and the eighth slowest team when playing with a lead of eight or more points.
- Zach Taylor has donkey tendencies. While we all clamor for him to fully unleash Joe Burrow and his Clydesdales on the outside, it might remain more muted than we’d like. If it remains the same, Cincinnati’s pace will limit their play volume. We also saw Taylor lean on the run more down the stretch. Overall the team was ranked seventh in neutral passing rate, but in Weeks 9-18 last season, they dropped to 14th.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Mitch Trubisky: If you’re considering starting a Pittsburgh quarterback outside of the deepest of superflex leagues the answer is no. The Bengals on paper aren’t a tough matchup after allowing the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate and ranking 11th in yards per attempt last year, but there’s a laundry list of better quarterback options to consider over the bag of meh that is Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. If Trubisky is named the starter he could easily implode behind the Steelers leaky offensive line. The Bengals were 14th in pressure rate last season. The last time we saw Trubsiky under center as a starter he was 31st and 32nd in PFF grade and adjusted completion rate against pressure (minimum 50 dropbacks).
Joe Burrow: The defense formerly known as the Steel Curtain showed some dents in the armor last year, ranking only 16th in EPA per play and allowing the fifth-highest passer rating on deep passes. This can be traced to their cornerback room falling apart, with Joe Haden, James Pierre, and Arthur Malet all falling on their faces. That likely won’t be the case this year as Pittsburgh’s front office gave Akhello Witherspoon a running mate in Levi Wallace on the outside. Behind a retooled offensive line and after ranking first in pressured completion rate last year, Burrow can hold up against the Steelers’ eighth-ranked pressure rate last year. If Pittsburgh’s corners can stand up to the challenge of the Bengals’ receivers, don’t be surprised if Zach Taylor leans on Joe Mixon here. Burrow is best viewed from a median projection as a low-end QB1 this week.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: Najee Harris remains a locked-in volume monster. Last year he finished first in opportunity share and weighted opportunity. He averaged 22.5 touches and 98.1 total yards per game while seeing a 14.5% target share (fifth among running backs). The Bengals are a middle-of-the-road matchup for opposing backs after ranking 20th and 25th last season in second-level and open field yards allowed. Harris’s pass game role offers him a ceiling as Cincinnati gave up the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to running backs (19th DVOA against receiving backs last year).
Joe Mixon: Joe Mixon had the Steelers’ number last year, averaging 23 rushing attempts and 127.5 rushing yards per game in their two meetings. Mixon made the most of his opportunities behind an offensive line that didn’t rank any higher than 15th in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards last year. With the Bengals’ offseason upgrades upfront, Mixon should have more room to operate against a defense that was gashed by opposing running backs last season.
The Steelers were 32nd in explosive run rate and second in rushing yards allowed. Mixon was seventh in breakaway runs last season, so don’t dismiss his ability to rip off a few long ones in Week 1. While he may never be the true three-down back we’ve always hoped for, it doesn’t matter this week as his receiving will just be icing on the cake.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson: Diontae Johnson was the clear leading receiver for Pittsburgh last year. Johnson was first among their wide receivers in target share (26%) and air yard share (32%) while tying with Chase Claypool for the lead in end zone target share. Johnson was on the perimeter for about 92% of his routes, which likely won’t change this year. He could draw a shadow from Chidobe Awuzie in Week 1. Awuzie shadowed six times last season, including a game against Johnson where he followed him on 58% of his routes, giving up on one reception on three targets with 15 receiving yards. Awuzie was stellar as a shadow corner, only allowing Davante Adams and A.J. Brown to exceed 40 receiving yards in a game. Overall he allowed a 56.7% catch rate and 80.9 passer rating last season.
Update: Dionate Johnson got in a full practice Friday, so I expect him to gut it out. We’ve seen Johnson leave multiple games banged up. I can’t rule that out this week, so if you’re weighing him versus other players in the same range the safe play is not starting Johnson.
Follow me down this Rabbit hole.
In 2022 could Chase Claypool be a POWER SLOT in PIT❓
Slot YPRR
(per PFF, min 10 slot tgs)2021:
Diontae 1.07 (90th)
Claypool 1.75 (30th of 114 WRs)2020:
Diontae 0.63
Claypool 0.95Diontae & Pickens outside
Claypool slot ?DAMN I’M BACK IN pic.twitter.com/GHvcgskfp2
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 5, 2022
Chase Claypool: If Awuzie locks down Johnson, Week 1 could be the time the Steelers unleash Chase Claypool big slot szn. In the preseason, he was utilized from the slot on 83.3% of his snaps. Last year Claypool saw a 16% target share and 26% of the team’s air yards. He’ll match up against Mike Hilton and a team that gave up the eighth-most receptions, 10th-most receiving yards, and eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers. Hilton allowed a 69.8% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating in slot coverage last year. If you’re looking for upside from your flex this week, Claypool has it.
George Pickens: While many are ready to get George Pickens fitted for a Hall of Fame jacket after the preseason, we need to temper expectations out the gate. Pickens was solid in the preseason but not spectacular with his 1.62 yards per route run. At Georgia, he was never ranked higher than 44th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) in any collegiate season. He enters Week 1 as the possible fourth or fifth read in the passing attack. He ran 91.4% of his routes outside in the preseason, which means a heavy dose of Awuzie and Eli Apple. While we’ve discussed Awuzie’s skill, we haven’t mentioned Apple’s lack of it. Last year he allowed a 60.9% catch rate and 100.2 passer rating in coverage. Pickens may get the best of him in this game, but let’s pump the brakes a tad before crowning him the king of Steel City.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were dueling banjos of wide receiver excellence last season finishing as the WR5 and WR12 in fantasy points per game. Their numbers were strikingly similar as Chase finished with a 23% target share and 38% of the team’s air yards while Higgins garnered a 20% target share and 30% air yard share. I don’t have to convince you to start them in Week 1, but it’s worth noting the corners they will face on 78-80% of their routes are quite good. Pittsburgh’s new face in the cornerback room, Levi Wallace gave up a 59.8% catch rate and 85.9 passer rating in Buffalo last year. Akhello Witherspoon has been a shutdown corner whenever he’s been fully healthy. Last year health complied as he surrendered a 48.6% catch rate and 48.0 passer rating in coverage. This isn’t grounds to sit either player, but it’s worth tempering expectations for the two this week.
Tyler Boyd: The third wheel of the Bengals’ passing tricycle has a good matchup in the slot this week. Tyler Boyd handled a 17% target share last year, but only 16% of the team’s air yards and 12% of their end zone targets. In their two meetings, he averaged only four targets, three receptions, and 24.5 receiving yards last season. If the Bengals do keep the ball on the ground here, then Boyd’s volume will suffer the most. Cameron Sutton does offer a juicy matchup as he allowed a 68.9% catch rate and 108.8 passer rating last year. Boyd is a WR4 type with a tad of upside in this matchup.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: Pat Freiermuth only saw a 12% target share last year as the fourth option in the passing attack, but he was integral in their red zone offense. Freiermuth was second in red zone target share and led all tight ends in the NFL in red zone targets. He scored in both games against the Bengals last year, averaging 4.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 31 receiving yards. Cincinnati was abysmal against the position last season, and with their personnel largely unchanged, I doubt that’s different in 2022. The Bengals gave up the fourth-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards and seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Hayden Hurst: Hayden Hurst has been one of my favorite darkhorse tight ends of the offseason, but I have no infatuation for him in Week 1. Hurst will take over the every down role that led C.J. Uzomah to rank 11th in snap share and routes run last year. Uzomah also only saw a 12.3% target share. This isn’t the week to dive deep in Hurst’s direction for a streamer. The Steelers have been tough against the position for multiple years, ranking 10th in DVOA last season, giving up the 13th fewest receptions and receiving yards.
