Week 1 was kind to the OL/DL matchups column as we were able to exploit some matchups that benefited us for fantasy purposes. Jalen Hurts had his way with the Lions and the Eagles ran the ball effectively. The Chiefs had a running back pop for two touchdowns and Travis Kelce smashed as the Cardinals had to blitz to try and get to Patrick Mahomes. Arizona’s front four was predictably bad and had no success getting pressure with four.
This week we have a marquee Thursday night matchup as well as an offensive line that out-performed their Week 1 rank. Let’s dive into the Week 2 matchups.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Week 1 was kind to the OL/DL matchups column as we were able to exploit some matchups that benefited us for fantasy purposes. Jalen Hurts had his way with the Lions and the Eagles ran the ball effectively. The Chiefs had a running back pop for two touchdowns and Travis Kelce smashed as the Cardinals had to blitz to try and get to Patrick Mahomes. Arizona’s front four was predictably bad and had no success getting pressure with four.
This week we have a marquee Thursday night matchup as well as an offensive line that out-performed their Week 1 rank. Let’s dive into the Week 2 matchups.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Matchup of the Week
Los Angeles Chargers DL (3rd in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Kansas City Chiefs OL (1st in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
Thursday night’s game features should provide plenty of offensive fireworks but a lot will hinge on how often the Chargers can pressure Patrick Mahomes. This is a strength-on-strength matchup, as the Chiefs are No. 2 overall in pass DVOA offensively while the Chargers rank third in the same metric defensively.
Los Angeles brought in Khalil Mack to play opposite Joey Bosa and they led a dominant Week 1 effort. The Chargers were able to rack up 22 QB pressures and six sacks as a unit and Mack was especially good with three sacks and a forced fumble. He and Bosa getting pressure off the edge will be crucial and we should note that Patrick Mahomes made 10 pressure throws in Week 1, which was fifth in the league. The Cardinals have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL so this could be a trouble spot for the Chiefs.
In looking at this matchup, we see that the Chargers only got pressure on 28% of Derek Carr‘s dropbacks in Week 1. That was below the league average of 33% but here’s why: Los Angeles tried to get pressure rushing four on over 85% of the snaps. When we look at LA’s pressure stats in that context, they look even more impressive. We’ve seen Mahomes dice up defenses over the years who have to play a blitz-heavy scheme. If the Chargers can generate edge pressure with Bosa and Mack and keep seven in coverage, their chances of slowing down this offense increase exponentially.
How this affects us for fantasy is pretty straightforward. Mahomes will always take what a defense gives him, so I would expect Brandon Staley to mix things up on the back end. Derwin James could be an equalizer in all this as he can cover the slot or work in coverage against Travis Kelce. I would expect this week will be the one where we will determine if JuJu Smith-Schuster can be a true WR1 in this offense. He and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will need to win individual matchups for the Chiefs to establish drives. As we saw last week, Los Angeles is susceptible on the back end, so with JC Jackson once again out, the receivers will need to take some of the burden off Kelce. This should be a fantastic matchup when the Chiefs have the football.
Defensive Line Matchup to Exploit
Carolina Panthers DL (23rd in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ New York Giants OL (14th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
When looking at matchups, this one does not pop off the page. The Giants haven’t had a dominant offensive line in years, so when looking at matchups, we wouldn’t expect them to be here. They’ve done well to upgrade their offensive lines in recent years, however, so here we are. On the Panthers’ side, they just got gashed for over 200 yards rushing and gave up 5.6 YPC. Saquon Barkley should be ready to chow down this week.
As suspect as Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal can be in pass protection, they are maulers in the run game. Their work on Sunday freed up Barkley to rush for 164 yards in Tennessee. While the Panthers ranked in the middle of the pack for Week 1 in run-stop win rate, they were 30th in rush DVOA. This is somewhat surprising, as they have two above-average defensive tackles in Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis. For Carolina to slow down Barkley, those two will have to eat space and keep their linebackers clean.
The other key to this matchup is Brian Burns continuing his ascent to being one of the league’s better pass rushers. He didn’t register a sack in Week 1 but did have six QB pressures. With Neal and Thomas both struggling in pass protection, Burns could end up having himself a nice game. The Panthers finished Week 1 with a 32.6% pressure rate, which was above the league average.
As good as Daniel Jones was on Sunday with the rush in his face (he ranked third in the league in completion percentage when pressured), the way to beat the Giants is to slow down Barkley and force Jones to win the game. If Barkley gets going, Carolina will face a similar situation to what they faced in Week 1 and could see the same results. For fantasy purposes, Barkley is the best play here and he could smash this Sunday.
Offensive Line Matchups to Exploit
New York Jets OL (25th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Cleveland Browns DL (13th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
The Jets were facing an uphill battle along the offensive line even before Duane Brown was placed on IR before the season. Heading into Week 2 it looks like their lone backup tackle, Connor McDermott, will be out this week with an ankle injury.
This leaves the Jets dangerously thin at tackle and now the Jets get to try and handle Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney coming off the edge. This is a massive advantage for Cleveland and should make life difficult for Joe Flacco. Garrett ranked 5th in the league in pass rush win rate among edge defenders in Week 1. He also had two sacks and finished with a 94.4 grade per Pro Football Focus.
As a unit, the Browns finished third in the league in pass rush win rate in Week 1. Jordan Elliott had himself a strong game against Carolina from the interior as well, setting this up to be a tough day for the Jets’ offensive line. New York finished in the bottom third of the league in both pass block win rate and pass rush win rate against the Ravens. While it was a difficult opening week matchup for the Jets, it speaks to the overall struggles of an offensive line that is now down to a fourth-string rookie at one tackle position (Max Mitchell).
The Jets will probably need to devote an extra blocker on most passing plays so pushing the ball downfield is unlikely with Garrett and Clowney forcing the issue off the edge. It makes most of the passing game options for the Jets a risky bet, although if you believe Flacco will throw 50+ passes again, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore could pop. I’ll sprinkle both in DFS.
The silver lining (if you want to call it that) is the Jets finished in the middle of the pack in Rush DVOA offensively for Week 1. The Browns won’t have many explosive plays and will operate at one of the slowest paces in the NFL. New York has a chance to stay in the game by featuring Michael Carter and Breece Hall. Those two combined for 29 touches against Baltimore despite the Jets playing from behind all game. The most likely scenario is New York trying to control things on the ground and hitting on short/intermediate pass routes to fend off the pass rush. This is a game plan that may produce minimal fantasy output.
Tennessee Titans OL (22nd in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Buffalo Bills DL (5th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
After a Week 1 whitewashing of the Rams, Buffalo validated the many people who believe they are the Super Bowl favorites. The Bills identified the need to create more pressure on the quarterback in the offseason, signing Von Miller to a massive deal. Buffalo kept him on a snap count but Miller still dominated in Week 1, turning in two sacks and three tackles for loss. Miller had a 47% pass rush win rate against the Rams, good for third in the league. Simply put, when Miller was on the field, he was dominant.
Buffalo also got outstanding interior line play from Jordan Phillips, who finished with six QB pressures and 1.5 sacks of his own. Phillips ranked fifth among defensive tackles with a 21% pass rush win rate. He will contend with Titans center Ben Jones, who had a 96% pass block win rate last Sunday. This is the top overall matchup of the game and if Tennessee is going to have a chance Monday night, Jones will need to play well once again.
The Titans will need to lean heavily on Derrick Henry and hope for better results in Week 2. They finished ranked 28th in rush DVOA in Week 1 despite a 73% run block win rate. On paper, this looks like one of the bigger mismatches of Week 2 as the Bills held LA to just 2.9 yards per carry. Of course, Henry is the great equalizer there and for Tennessee to stay in the game they will need to try and control the ball on offense.
If Tennessee is forced to throw it, they would be wise to move the pocket and give Ryan Tannehill a chance to get on the move. This would hopefully slow down the Bills’ ferocious pass rush and Tannehill is a more efficient passer outside the pocket. The main issue with the Titans’ passing game is a lack of weapons at receiver and tight end, so it is tough to recommend anyone from Tennessee in that realm. Overall, I’d be off the Titans offense Monday night outside of Henry, who will be a volume-driven option.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.
