Fantasy Football Heat Index: Trevor Lawrence, Khalil Herbert, Mack Hollins (2022)

Welcome to The Heat Index!

For those unfamiliar with the column, every Monday during the NFL season, we dig into the players whose performances through Sunday jumped out to us the most. Along with their stats (half-point PPR scoring) and positional rank for the week, we’ll rank their rest-of-season prospects on a scale of ?-to-?????. Week 3 featured several unexpected breakout performances, many related to players taking advantage of an injury to a teammate.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)

• Stat-line:  28 of 39 passing for 262 yards with three TDs and a 2-point conversion; seven yards rushing
• QB Rank:  3

Analysis:  Lawrence had his way against a banged-up Chargers defense in Week 3, moving the ball around and looking like the number one overall pick in last year’s draft. Lawrence figures to keep improving with an experienced, QB-friendly coach and beefed-up receiving corps this season. In addition, his schedule looks manageable for the most part this season. Next week is a matchup to avoid, though, as he’ll face a tough Eagles defense.

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Wide Receiver

Mack Hollins (WR – LV)

• Stat-line:  Eight receptions off ten targets for 158 yards and a TD
• WR Rank:  2

Analysis:  Hollins took advantage of Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV)‘s injury and exploded in the Raiders’ failed comeback attempt versus the Titans. However, his effort was no fluke, as Hollins also led the Raiders in receiving yards in Week 2 and had played more snaps than Renfrow over the first two weeks. With Renfrow lining up almost exclusively in the slot, Hollins should see plenty of run on the outside all season. His target share will likely descend, but the veteran wideout looks like he’s in a great position to put forth his best season as a pro as defenses key in on the Raiders’ other weapons, Renfrow, Davante Adams (WR – LV), and Darren Waller (TE – LV).

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Zay Jones (WR – JAC)

• Stat-line:  Ten receptions off 11 targets for 85 yards and a TD
• WR Rank:  5

Analysis:  Zay Jones was Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target in Week 3, with an impressive 28% target share. Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) got most of the fanfare this off-season, but Jones has one more catch than him through three games. With Marvin Jones Jr. (WR – JAC), Evan Engram (TE – JAC), and the running backs also involved in the Jag’s passing attack, Jones will probably lack consistency week-to-week. However, he’s put himself on the radar in deep leagues and as a plausible bye-week streamer in plus matchups.

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Running Back

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)

• Stat-line:  Twenty carries for 157 yards and two TDs; Two receptions off two targets for 12 yards
• RB Rank:  1

Analysis:  Herbert took over as the lead back for the Bears after David Montgomery (RB – CHI) injured his ankle/knee after only three carries Sunday. He took full advantage of the pristine matchup and rumbled his way to fantasy greatness. When Montgomery missed time last year, Herbert proved a more than capable replacement, averaging 86 rushing yards and 12.3 fantasy points over a four-week span. He’s a must-start if Montgomery can’t go next week and one of the league’s top RB handcuffs.

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Jamaal Williams (RB – DET)

• Stat-line:  Twenty carries for 87 yards and two TDs; Two receptions off two targets for 20 yards
• RB Rank:  2

Analysis:  With D’Andre Swift (RB – DET) banged up, Williams saw the majority of carries for the Lions Sunday, as they tried (and failed) to hold off the Vikings in the fourth quarter. Williams was effective as a ball carrier and, like Khalil Herbert, is an excellent handcuff. It doesn’t sound like Swift’s injuries will keep him out of the lineup next week, but Williams is worth picking up if he’s still available in your league, just in case. If Swift is on your roster, Williams should be a priority add, whether by waiver or trade. He also has stand-alone value in deeper leagues as the Lions like to manage Swift’s touches and value his contributions.

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Tight End

David Njoku (TE – CLE)

• Stat-line:  Nine receptions off ten targets for 89 yards and a TD
• TE Rank:  2

Analysis: Njoku’s ten targets tied him for the second most among tight ends in Week 2 with Zach Ertz (TE – ARI). In contrast, he only had six targets through Week 2. Working in his favor, Njoku has been on the field a ton for the Browns this season. He’s played around 90% of their offensive snaps through Week 3. Though his target share will fluctuate, Njoku’s opportunity will be there if he continues to be on the field this often. Consider him a high-end TE2 moving forward, with the possibility of him cracking the top ten.

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