Andrew Erickson’s Favorite Picks for Every Round (2022 Fantasy Football)

Andrew Erickson’s Favorite Picks for Every Round (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL season is approaching, which means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there’s no better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let’s call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory. Here’s Andrew Erickson’s perfect 2022 fantasy football draft.

And for those looking for even more in-depth analysis, check out Erickson’s full round-by-round draft strategy along with his preferred draft slot breakdown.

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Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Andrew Erickson’s Perfect 2022 Fantasy Football Draft

Approach to Round 1

Whether it’s best ball or redraft fantasy football, the golden standard approach of selecting a running back with your first-round pick has not changed. Although, of course, it wasn’t so long ago that the elite tier of WRs like Davante Adams, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Antonio Brown was drafted in the top half of Round 1. Still, a few talented running-back draft classes have returned leagues to the glory days.

Every fantasy football draft is unique, but one thing’s for certain — running backs are the drivers behind fantasy-winning teams. So get your studs early and wait till the later rounds to take shots on backs in ambiguous backfields. That’s where we’ll find the next breakout at the position.

However, unlike in some previous years, when the strategy was hyper-focused on grabbing a workhorse running back no matter what, 2022 presents us with a different approach in the second half of the first round.

If you miss out on the Tier 1/high-end Tier 2 crop of running backs — Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook — be open to drafting an elite wide receiver in the second half of Round 1. This is less so the move in half-PPR formats because receivers can’t make up ground versus running backs as easily without being rewarded a full point per reception. However, after JT and CMC, it is fair game to select an elite wideout.

From 2018 to 2020, in PPR scoring, wide receivers have the highest percentage of top-12 finishes (55%). That trend continued in 2021, when seven of the top-12 overall finishers (58%) were WRs, with six finishing top eight. That was true in both PPR and half-PPR scoring.

The “Big Three” wide receiver tier — Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp — are strong bets to meet Round 1 production without the cost. But their odds of returning value increase dramatically in the PPR-scoring format.

Stefon Diggs/Davante Adams are strong WR options for those picking at the turn.

Early-Round Players to Target

  • Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR): We all know the deal with CMC. When healthy, he’s easily the best player in fantasy football. He played in four games in 2021 with at least a 50% snap share, and his PPR fantasy finishes were RB1, RB3, RB4 and RB3. McCaffrey averaged 26 fantasy points per game. Considering the extent of CMC’s injuries has not resulted in major surgeries or completely torn ligaments, I like him bouncing back to form in 2022. I like that the Panthers are already putting him in preseason bubble wrap to make sure he’s full-go for Week 1. Last season, four of the Panthers’ five wins came when CMC was active and playing.
  • Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): Jefferson finished 2021 as the WR4 in fantasy points per game (19.5 PPR) and expected fantasy points per game (18.8). The Vikings WR1 was the model of consistency at just 22 years old, finishing as a weekly top-20 wide receiver in 76% of his games (13 of 17) while commanding the league’s third-highest target share (27%) and No. 1 air yards share (44%). With Adam Thielen turning 32 and no other super established receivers on the roster, Jefferson is my favorite to lead the NFL in targets and fantasy points scored at the wide receiver position. Kirk Cousins is an above-average quarterback who is proven to support top-tier fantasy weapons, and new head coach Kevin O’ Connell could further unlock Jefferson’s upside. O’Connell wants to use Jefferson at the Cooper Kupp of his new-look offense. The targets will be in the double-digits every week, and Jefferson should see more time operating from the slot. Kupp compiled over 1,650 receiving yards — 93% of his total yardage output — operating from inside in 2021.

Mid-Round Players to Target

  • Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN): Chase broke Justin Jefferson’s record for most receiving yards by a rookie, finishing 2021 as the WR5 in fantasy points per game and the WR22 in expected fantasy points per game. Only Deebo Samuel scored more fantasy points above expectation (+74.3) than Chase — a testament to his home-run hitting ability. Chase’s 18.0 yards per reception ranked second-best in the NFL behind only Samuel. The Bengals’ wide receivers’ dominance continued in the postseason with back-to-back 100-yard games in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Chase commanded a 27% target share when it mattered most during postseason play, a 5% increase from his regular-season target share. The rookie was so good in just his first year that it’s scary to think what he could do if he continues to ascend. Case in point, his target share can improve in 2022 in an offense that figures to rank top-10 in total passing attempts.
  • Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): It’s the same old song and dance for Dalvin Cook in 2021. The Minnesota Vikings’ running back was a workhorse when healthy, averaging 22 touches per game (fifth) and 15.2 fantasy points per game (RB11). But the market seems to have soured on the consensus No. 2 pick from a season ago because he missed four games, and his production didn’t align with his usage. As a result, his ADP has fallen to the middle to even back of Round 1, and it’s unwarranted based on the impending touchdown regression Cook will experience in 2022. His 15 goal-line carries ranked fourth in the NFL last season, but he converted just three into scores. Considering Cook averaged 16 TDs from 2019 to 2020, his meager six TDs from last season look like a blip on the radar.

Late-Round Players to Target

  • Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): Mixon was an absolute steal in the second round of fantasy drafts in 2021 based on his easily projected large workload within an ascending offense. The Bengals’ running back finished the season third in total touches (334) and sixth in touches per game (20.9). In goal-line carries (16), Mixon also ranked third and tied Jonathan Taylor/James Conner in red-zone touchdowns. 2021 was the perfect storm for the fantasy RB3 in half-point scoring coming off a truncated 2020 campaign, and there’s reason to believe the positive production will continue in 2022. The Bengals’ offensive line has been revamped entirely, ensuring that Mixon will be able to repeat his top-10 PFF rushing grade from a season ago. He also flashed upside as a receiver down the playoff stretch for the Bengals, averaging nearly six targets per game while running a route on 57% of offensive dropbacks through six games. That route participation would have ranked third among all running backs during the regular season. Love being able to snag Mixon in Round 2.
  • Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF): Top-tier upside still exists with Diggs in this explosive Bills offense, even if his target share holds at 24% in 2022. Because his command of high-value targets in the Buffalo offense was unmatched by almost every other WR in the NFL, he was one of just two WRs to hit over 2,000 air yards (Justin Jefferson). During the regular season, Diggs also commanded the most end-zone targets in the NFL (25) — six more than the next closest receiver (Jefferson). Simply put: Diggs left a lot of fantasy production on the table in 2021, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening for a second consecutive season. Per PFF’s expected fantasy touchdown model, Diggs scored five TDs under expectation. Metrics like that tend to regress positively the following season.

Approach to Round 2

Fantasy managers should feel comfortable taking an elite wideout in Round 1 because Round 2 is filled with a plethora of running back talent. The non-first-round running backs — Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Javonte Williams and Cam Akers— provide enough production for a roster’s RB1 slot.

Keep in mind that many of those RBs don’t need to be drafted in Round 2. Be aware of ADP based on where you are drafting.

If you went with a running back in Round 1, consider whoever remains from the Tier 2 wide receivers — Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, and Tee Higgins. But don’t be afraid to double down at the running back position even if you already drafted a stud in Round 1.

The cleverly coined “Superhero RB” approach sets you up nicely with two locked-and-loaded studs in your two starting RB spots. It’s an even better strategy in best ball formats, where waiver wire RBs can’t be added to your roster once the season starts.

Solidifying running backs in Rounds 1 and 2 also helps you avoid reaching on running backs in the upcoming RB Dead Zone, where your primary focus should be pounding WRs poised for significant leaps in 2022.

Tight end Travis Kelce is also an option in Round 2, with his 2022 point projection just shy of Cooper Kupp. However, it’s impossible to ignore the high-end target share that Kelce will command in the Chiefs’ offense after they traded Tyreek Hill. His 20% target share ranked second-best at the position in 2021.

Just keep in mind that it was a slight fall-off from his 23% average target share from 2019 and 2020. In 2021, the Chiefs tight end posted his worst points per game average (16.6) dating back to 2017 while also posting a career-low in yards per route run (1.84) and PFF grade (81.8).

Early-Round Players to Target

  • CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL): No more Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson can only spell great things for CeeDee Lamb in 2022. The biggest issue with Lamb was that he never was seeing the requisite target volume in an offense that had a surplus of playmakers. As a result, Lamb boasted just an 18% target share last season — which ranked outside the top 30 among all pass-catchers. But with the fifth-most vacated targets left to be distributed between Lamb, tight end Dalton Schultz, ACL-injury returning Michael Gallup, already hurt veteran James Washington and third-round rookie pick Jalen Tolbert, I’d bet Lamb crests at least a 20% target share in 2022. His 21% target rate per route run bested anybody in Dallas last season.
  • Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): Once a locked-and-loaded top-five fantasy football selection, Barkley is now routinely selected in the third round. His inability to stay healthy has hindered him from being able to recapture his rookie form in addition to the Giants’ h0rrible situation on offense. But under a new coaching staff and vastly improved offensive line, there’s reason to buy back in on Barkley at a massive discount. In five games last season when Barkley played a full snap share with Daniel Jones under center, the Giants’ RB averaged 16.2 PPR points per game (RB10). Backup Devontae Booker out-scored Barkley on a per-game basis in all other games played (10.0 vs. 9.1).
  • D’Andre Swift (RB – DET): Swift was RB9 in points per game (half-point scoring) in 10 games played before his injury. He led all running backs in receptions (53) and averaged nearly 19 touches per game. That would have ranked ninth-best last season.

 

Mid-Round Players to Target

  • A.J. Brown (WR – PHI): The veteran has never played in a pass-happy offense. That doesn’t necessarily project to change too drastically if the Eagles run back their “operation ground and pound” from a season ago. Still, Brown’s talent has yet to hold him back amid a poor situation — WR5 in fantasy points per game in 2020 — and that shouldn’t stop in Philly. The former Titan will be the alpha dog for the Eagles and remain a fantasy WR1 in 2022 fantasy leagues. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run (2.72) and in target rate per route run (28%) despite battling injuries last season.
  • Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): Alvin Kamara ranked third in touches per game (22.1) and was the RB6 in points per game after seeing a career-high in total seasonal touches (287) in 2021. He was the offense with no other weapons and averaged nearly six carries more per game than his career average. However, this came at the expense of his receptions per game falling by 1.5 per game. 2021 was the first season in Kamara’s career he failed to catch at least 81 passes.The touches will inevitably come down for Kamara in 2022 as the Saints look to extend the shelf life of their 27-year old running back. As will Kamara’s No. 3-ranked RB target share (13%) as the offense looks to spread the ball more with capable wide receivers available on the roster. But even so, Kamara’s talent is undeniable making him worthy of mid-second round pick. He still figures to see enough volume (15-17 touches per game) in a backfield with Mark Ingram and nobody else to be a fantasy RB1.

Late-Round Players to Target

  • Mike Evans (WR – TB): The 29-year-old’s consistency — top-eight WR over four consecutive seasons — makes him more than worthy of a top-10 WR fantasy ranking regardless of how the Buccaneers’ target share shakes out in 2022. Besides, he has a potential opportunity to see more targets than ever before, with Antonio Brown out of the picture and Chris Godwin as a candidate to miss games to start the year off the ACL injury. Evans created an elite 27% target share without Godwin or Brown at the end of the 2021 season.
  • Leonard Fournette (RB – TB): Fournette ranked fifth in fantasy points and fourth in expected fantasy points per game before his Week 15 injury, leading all running in receptions (62). With an all-encompassing skill set at just 27 years old, Fournette possesses easy top-10 running back fantasy appeal.
  • Aaron Jones (RB – GB): Per StatMuse, Aaron Jones is an absolute target and receptions monster when Davante Adams has missed time in the past. Without Green Bay’s No. 1 WR, Jones has averaged close to 4.5 catches, six targets, 48.5 receiving yards and 23 PPR points per game. Hard to ignore the Packers’ RB1 as a dynamite selection in Round 2 with multiple top-five finishes on his resume. Although be wary that he does come with a little more boom-or-bust potential than most might realize.

Approach to Round 3

Ideally, after Round 2, you have an RB-RB or RB-WR setup. This approach makes staying fluid and flexible for the next few rounds much easier. It’s essential to draft at least one running back in the first two rounds because the talent pool starts to fall off at the start of Round 3. Also, the middle rounds are chock-full of wide receiver talent, which should be the primary focus.

Draft the next highest-ranked wide receiver from the next tier, which could include Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Williams, or even Courtland Sutton.

If you still haven’t drafted a tight end, Kyle Pitts is your guy here at the end of Round 3 or the start of Round 4. He’s essentially a WR playing the tight end position, but the positional advantage makes him extremely enticing for fantasy purposes. Just be sure there are not any better options at WR because you are paying a premium for a player on the Atlanta Falcons.

If, for some reason, you’ve avoided running backs up to this point or the other drafters went extremely receiver-heavy through the first three rounds, don’t shy away from another stud running back if one falls with zero-RB all the rage nowadays.

Early-Round Players to Target

  • Tee Higgins (WR – CIN): Higgins finished last season as the WR22 overall and 13th in fantasy points per game (13.0) in the half-point per reception scoring format. The big-bodied wide receiver also out-scored Ja’Marr Chase from Week 8 onward, seizing a 24% target share as the WR7 overall. When two teammates share such similar peripheral usage but have a wide ADP gap, scoop up the value with the cheaper guy. Those players are being priced closer to their floor than their ceiling. Higgins — top-10 in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run in 2021 — is that guy to draft in 2022.
  • Michael Pittman (WR – IND): Michael Pittman is entering Year 3 and should be viewed as a legitimate alpha WR1 based on his accomplishments from 2021. With a more trustworthy quarterback who has a track record of fueling fantasy WR1s and hyper-targeting alphas in Matt Ryan for the 2022 season, Pittman has the legitimate chance to leap into the top-12 WR1 conversation.

Mid-Round Players to Target

  • Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver’s trade for Russell Wilson. Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer — he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season — which plays heavily into Sutton’s strengths as a vertical threat.

Late-Round Players to Target

  • James Conner (RB – ARI): The Cardinals’ running back finished the 2021 season tied for second in goal-line carries and third in touchdowns (18). Conner received extensive work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds out of the lineup from Weeks 9-14 and Week 18. Conner averaged 26.2 fantasy points and 5.5 targets per game in those six games while running a route on 61% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks. His RB finishes in half-point scoring during those weeks: RB1, RB16, RB8, RB11, RB2, and RB3. But I’ll admit that I have cooled on Conner since the start of the offseason. Edmonds signed with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, but I am not 100% convinced that Conner will see the exact same role that he saw at the tail end of last year. Newly signed Darrel Williams and returning veteran Eno Benjamin — both offer receiving ability — could combine for an Edmonds-esque role to keep Conner healthy for the entire season. That would hinder Conner’s fantasy RB1 upside; although he was a top-20 running back in half-point scoring last season — 29th in points per game — even before Edmonds got hurt. Worth mentioning that he had more rushing touchdowns (eight) than receptions (five) through the first eight weeks of the season. Conner’s blazing 2021 finish reminds me of Kenyan Drake‘s second-half surge in 2019 that led him to be vastly overrated the following season under the same offensive coaching staff. Extrapolating his production from a best-case situation over a 17-game pace is not the optimal approach. But in Round 3, I still see the value in a Conner selection.
  • Mike Williams (WR – LAC): Big Mike finished the season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game, coming off career-highs in targets, catches and yards per route run despite cooling off considerably in the later weeks, in addition to leaving a boatload of touchdown production on the table. Through the first five weeks of the season, the big-bodied wideout was second in WR scoring behind only Cooper Kupp. Then he tweaked his knee, and things fell off. He finished sixth in end-zone targets (16) but caught only five for touchdowns. The sky’s the limit with the Chargers offense, and the production from scores could easily vault Williams over Keenan Allen in fantasy across all formats despite the latter’s higher projected target share. Recall, They BOTH finished as WR1s at the same rate (33%) last season in PPR. But Williams finished with more points overall through 18 weeks.

Round 4 Target

  • Cam Akers (RB – LAR): There’s simply too much emphasis placed on Cam Akers’ poor production at the tail end of 2021 (2.4 ypc) when touch volume is the key driver of fantasy success at running back. In the Rams’ divisional playoff win versus the Buccaneers, Akers played 81% of the Los Angeles offensive snaps and out-touched Sony Michel (signed with Miami this offseason) 27 to three. I expect Akers to be dialed back in as the top RB next season in Sean McVay’s consistent 1-RB offense, where the team’s lead back averages 20-plus touches per game. Darrell Henderson Jr. has proven he’s nothing more than a replaceable running back.
  • Breece Hall (RB – NYJ): All Hall needs is to take on the workload from the Jets cumulative RB1 from last season — 240 touches, 14-15 per game — and he’s a lock to be a top-15 fantasy running back. Every running back that hit that touch threshold last season finished inside that ranking. Therefore, I am in on the rookie in the RB2 range even as a member of the New York Jets. Because the situation may not be as dire as most expect. Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter finished top-6 in PFF rushing grade over the last 8 weeks of the fantasy football season. If two inferior RBs were able to be efficient in a worse offense, then a college stud like Hall should easily meet/exceed expectations behind PFF’s 13th-ranked offensive line heading into 2022.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAX): With James Robinson attempting to come back from a torn Achilles injury suffered on December 26, Travis Etienne figures to seize a major role after a lost rookie season. During his final season as a Clemson Tiger, he led the country in receiving yards and ranked second in receptions among running backs. Etienne also racked up the most rushing attempts of 20-plus yards (40) from 2018-2019 AND most carries inside the five-yard line among FBS running backs from 2018-2020. With an explosive pass-catching skill set and underrated track record of red zone usage with his former college QB, Etienne checks off the requisite boxes of a fantasy RB poised to make noise in 2022. And he can be obtained for the suppressed price of a back-end fantasy RB2. An RB2 with massive upside seems like ETN’s floor considering Robinson finished 23rd at the position last season amid much poorer circumstances. And that’s even if Doug Pederson deploys a slight running back by committee. Darren Sproles/Miles Sanders saw awesome receiving roles in the Pederson offense in Philly. Miles Sanders was RB15 as a rookie on just 53% snap share. Taking the over on that for ETN.

Round 5 Target

  • Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL): The Baltimore Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, opening the WR1 role on offense. Bateman has the opportunity to step in and be the true No. 1 wide receiver for Lamar Jackson in 2022. With Brown’s 23% target share departure, Bateman can seize a massive role for fantasy as a high-end WR2.
  • Marquise Brown (WR – ARI): Marquise Brown seems slated for a massive target share in the Arizona Cardinals’ pass-heavy offense, especially with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined early on. Brown has already shown the ability to command targets at a high rate after posting a top-12, 23% target share last year with Baltimore. The speedy wideout also commanded a whopping 27% target share back in 2018 at Oklahoma — the last time he played with quarterback Kyler Murray.
  • A.J. Dillon (RB – GB): Over the final eight weeks of the 2021 season, A.J. Dillon was the RB6 overall in half-point scoring averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game (11th). Dillon’s 32 red-zone touches ranked third in the NFL to end the season. Aaron Jones averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game (RB23) in his six games played over the same time span. He also had just one top-10 finish from Week 9 onward. Dillon had two. And interestingly enough, the Packers running backs’ current ADPs are the total opposite of how they finished last season. Jones is going to have big weeks with his receiving upside, but Dillon will have equally big weeks when the Packers face a positive game script. Draft prices considered, Dillon is the better value.

Round 6 Target

  • Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI): Hurts has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback at an 85% hit rate in the 20 games he’s played in all four quarters.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): St. Brown finished the 2021 season on absolute fire as the WR3 in PPR from Weeks 13-18. But the blazing conclusion was fueled by injuries to both D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Because before their injuries, ASB was an essential non-factor outside a stretch from Weeks 4-6, where he commanded a 22% target share despite playing fewer snaps than Kalif Raymond. Meanwhile, Hockenson was the target leader for the offense until his injury. There’s definitely some hesitance on fully buying St. Brown’s rookie breakout, but the fact that it happened at all can’t be totally ignored. Luckily the concern is baked-in to his WR ADP, which is outside the top 24. And even if ASB doesn’t replicate his earth-shattering fantasy numbers from a season ago, he likely offers a pretty solid WR3 floor with the proven upside for more. In 47% of his games, he finished as a fantasy WR3 in 2021. And it’s all gravy after that should he roll over even 80% of his second-half production, or should injuries hit the Lions’ receiving corps. Keep in mind that from Week 4 onward, St. Brown was PFF’s 6th-highest graded receiver (84.7) and fourth-highest graded among WRs with at least 100 targets. He’s a good/efficient player, and that should translate to fantasy success in Year 2.
  • Gabriel Davis (WR- BUF): Buy the Gabriel Davis breakout. Even after running 200 fewer routes than Sanders and Beasley, Davis had the second-highest WR3 finish rate on the Bills. Beasley and Sanders also combined for more top-12 finishes than Stefon Diggs last season, which just showcases the weekly fantasy ceiling within reach for Davis. Don’t forget that the Bills wideout averaged 19.8 fantasy PPR points per game in his last six games as a full-time player. And while playing on a limited snap share, Davis ranks top five in the NFL in total end-zone targets. From Week 10 onward, Davis ranked 4th in PFF receiving grade, 11th in yards per route run, and WR25 in total fantasy points/per-game basis. A starting role should increase his floor, while his fantasy ceiling remains sky-high in a high-powered offense.
  • Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL) Only Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews have scored more fantasy points at the tight end position since the start of 2020. Schultz’s ADP has him linked closer to the second tier of tight ends rather than the aforementioned elite group. With Dak Prescott’s trust firmly in hand, Amari Cooper out the door and major question marks at No. 2 wide receiver, it’s likely that Schultz builds off his ninth-ranked 16% target share entering Year 5.

Round 7 Target

  • Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): Elijah Moore remains one of my favorite WRs to target outside the top 30 because the talent is so intoxicating. The Jets’ slot receiver was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games played, despite catching passes from a hodgepodge quarterback carousel of Mike White, Zach Wilson and Josh Johnson. His 16.1 fantasy points per game would have ranked fifth had he continued the production for the remainder of the season.
  • Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU): The 4th-round rookie RB from Florida was PFF highest-graded in the FBS last season. He has a clear path  to early-down duties in the Texans’ backfield after the team demoted Marlon Mack to the practice squad. Pierce sat out the team’s second preseason game and started in Week 3, because the coaches feel like he’s proven he is the team’s RB1 and best option at the position.

Round 8 Target

  • Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE): Last year Hunt was limited to just eight games due to a calf injury — but he maintained his effectiveness when healthy through the first six weeks of the season. He was a top-10 running back in PPR, averaging 17 fantasy points per game and just south of 15 touches per game. His sixth-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.54), sixth-ranked yards per route run (1.81), and 26% target rate suggest he’s not slowing down entering the age 27 season.
  • Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF): During Weeks 1-7, Brandon Aiyuk was a dud in fantasy football. He ranked 98th in yards per route run. But he turned things around in the second half of the season, finishing the year 13th in yards per route run with the same target rate per route run as Deebo Samuel. The former first-round pick also ranked sixth in yards after the catch per reception (6.9). If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could be a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that his teammate Samuel was viewed in 2021. His overall disappointing sophomore campaign should not overshadow his electric rookie season. But be warned that a run-heavy offensive philosophy led by mobile QB figures to suppress pass attempts in the 49ers offense cast uncertainty about what Aiyuk’s consistency will look like, especially if Samuel and George Kittle remain healthy.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE):Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board. He was PFF’s third-highest graded running back (84.2). Stevenson also ranked 13th in rushing yards and yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Damien Harris. Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9) with more favorable usage. With impressive reports coming out of Foxborough as a receiver and praise from Bill Belichick to see work on all 3 downs, Stevenson is a dark horse to see an expanded role; making the second-year back  a priority target as the draft slips into the later rounds. He was PFF’s highest-graded rookie RB last year…putting him into a tier with the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara — all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons.

Round 9 Target

  • Trey Lance (QB – SF): Lance only started two games but showed off the rushing that excited fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points and 60 rushing yards per game.
  • Zach Ertz (TE – ARI): Ertz didn’t end up getting traded until Week 7 to the Arizona Cardinals, but his production took off after the trade. The former Eagle averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (eighth) and finished second in the NFL in total targets (7.1/game) among tight ends. He also averaged just under five receptions per game and a team-high 20% target share while running a route on 84% of dropbacks. Ertz undoubtedly got a major receiving boost without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, but that will be the case during the first six games with the Cardinals’ No. 1 wide receiver serving a suspension. Ertz was TE4 over that stretch with Hopkins sidelined, averaging seven receptions per game (24% target share).
  • Christian Kirk (WR – JAX): Christian Kirk got PAID this offseason, but is getting no love in fantasy. Even though he proved he was up for the challenge a season ago. He commanded a 21% target share without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup. Averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game — a top-10 per-game average. And finished with the second-most receiving yards from the slot. This dude is going to see a boatload of volume in a pass-happy Jaguars offense and is still being selected outside the top-40 WRs.
  • Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): Singletary was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the top-5 fantasy RB over the final six weeks of the season on 17-plus touches per game. The underrated rusher ranked first in the NFL in routes run and third in the NFL in red-zone touches (29), more than double that of quarterback Josh Allen. With a proven track record and two years of bellcow back usage in spurts, don’t be surprised when PFF’s fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield. And everything the Bills have shown us during the preseason suggests Singletary is still locked-and-loaded into the RB1 spot.

Round 10 Target

  • James Cook (RB – BUF): Rookie running back James Cook has immediate sleeper fantasy appeal across all PPR formats based on his second-round draft capital, pass-catching prowess, explosiveness and offensive situation. The 5-foot-11, 199-pound running back has more than enough heft to manage a decent workload, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. The 5-foot-7, 203-pound Devin Singletary was the RB3 over the last six weeks of the regular season when the Bills entrenched him as the featured guy. Round 2 running backs have finished as top-36 running backs more than half the time (55%) since 2013.
  • Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG): Toney flashed future target-magnet potential after posting 2.14 yards per route run (11th) and commanding a 25% target rate per route run in 2021 — tied for 7th best in the NFL in 2021. His 92nd percentile PFF receiving grade versus single coverage suggests that Toney can win wherever he lines up. There’s no denying that Toney’s flashes of brilliant play came in short supply last season. The Giants’ offense might still be below average even with upgrades across the OL and coaching personnel with Daniel Jones under center. Even so, that’s factored into Toney’s WR40 ADP. Buy the dip.

Round 11 Target

  • Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN): Mattison smashes every time Dalvin Cook misses games, which happens every year. The Vikings RB2 has had five games with at least 23 touches the past two seasons, including two games with 32 touches when Cook has been sidelined. He averaged 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game.
  • George Pickens (WR – PIT): Pickens’ college profile screams that of a true alpha, so I’d be looking to stash him across the board before he is fully unleashed. The Georgia Bulldog WR broke out as a true 18-year-old freshman, finishing 2019 as PFF’s the 17th-highest-graded receiver in the nation (88.0) – ahead of future NFL wideouts like Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. His 2.64 yards per route run were identical to Jefferson’s. George Pickens’ unbelievable first year generated a 27% dominator rating – the No. 1 age-adjusted mark among the WRs in this draft class.
  • Rachaad White (RB – TB): White looks just like Leonard Fournette’s backup at the moment. But there’s an outcome where he delivers massive upside should Lenny go down with an injury or maintain his overweight status from the offseason. White has shades of David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell in his style of play, which didn’t go unnoticed by the new senior football consultant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians. The Arizona State product ranked first in his class in receiving yards, No. 1 in yards per route run (2.24), and second in receptions (43). His 16% target share is bonkers for a running back at the college level, and it did wonders to generate his Day 2 draft capital. That draft capital combined with White’s 30 receiving yards per game in college puts him into a group of RBs that includes: Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris and Travis Etienne Jr. With a strong college profile and athleticism to boot — White has league-winning potential if given the opportunity in the Buccaneers’ offense.

Round 12 Target

  • Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): No tight end should make a more significant leap in 2022 than Kmet, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
  • Skyy Moore (WR – KC):Moore’s impressive yards after catch (YAC) ability — tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles in 2021 college football — and versatility to play both inside/outside will help him stand out from the other Kansas City Chiefs WRs. With Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, Moore could smash his current ADP into the stratosphere. It’s not that outlandish to think a second-rounder can make an immediate impact considering six of the 12 highest-scoring Round 1 & 2 rookie WRs selected since 2017 were second-rounders. Although, please be patient with Moore because he doesn’t project to see starter snaps in Week 1. He was running as the WR4/5 during the preseason. But I’d imagine it’s only a matter of time before he forces himself into the starting lineup based on his talent.
  • Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – DEN): Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%) with Darren Waller and George Kittle. Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3. It bodes well for Albert O that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. So although there are concerns about Denver’s third-round rookie draft pick Greg Dulcich eating into Okwuegbunam’s production, that rhetoric is likely being overblown. Denver was already projected to feature 12 personnel — two TE sets — based on new head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s history. They ranked second in that particular deployment in 2021 while Hackett coached with the Green Bay Packers. Dulcich also was placed on IR — which means he is going to miss the first 4 weeks of the season.
  • Treylon Burks (WR – TEN): With a similar YAC-ability to A.J. Brown, Treylon Burks has the opportunity to step on the field on day one and potentially offer immediate fantasy football appeal as a WR3 fantasy option. The Razorbacks’ 8.5 yards after the catch rank 14th among 169 qualifying wide receivers (92nd percentile) over the past two seasons. The run-heavy nature of the offense, Burks status as the current No.2/3 alongside Robert Woods/Nick Westbrook and limitations of Ryan Tannehill at quarterback will likely hinder Burks’ fantasy ceiling, but he has a path to opportunities that not many other rookie wide receivers will see as a favorite to be the team’s WR1 at the conclusion of the season.

Round 13 Target

  • David Njoku (TE – CLE): Newly-paid tight end David Njoku — Four-year extension worth $56.75m — has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 after an encouraging 2021. He set career highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, eighth), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends who commanded at least 50 targets in 2021. In addition, the Browns cut Austin Hooper, which should open up the opportunity for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don’t be too quick to forget that Njoku already has a top-10 TE finish on his career resume.
  • Sony Michel (RB – MIA): Michel has twice as many starts (35) as anybody else in the Miami backfield. And over the final 6 weeks of the 2021 season, he ranked second in snaps, first in carries, third in rushing yards, third in broken tackles forced, and first in RZ carries.
  • Russell Gage (WR – TB):Russell Gage has fallen to the wayside with reports of Chris Godwin looking healthier than expected and the team’s addition of veteran WR Julio Jones.But the Bucs shelled out a $30 million contract to sign Gage this offseason. And at 33 years-old, Jones probably isn’t playing a full-time role. I’d be buying the dip on Gage after a breakout season that saw him post career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) in 2021. This offense throws more than enough to keep all the mouths fed. Case in point, Mike Evans, Godwin and Antonio Brown finished as top-36 WRs in more than 71% of their games played last year.
  • DeVante Parker (WR – NE): 2021 was a typical season for DeVante Parker. The former first-round pick had at least seven targets in seven of his nine game played, scoring double-digit fantasy points in more than half of them. He averaged 12.9 expected fantasy points per game through 17 weeks (28th). His acquisition by the Patriots helps shore up the need for a big-bodied wide receiver on the perimeter that can make plays downfield. But the extent of how high a target share Parker will command remains to be seen. If anything, he probably has the most touchdown upside of the New England Patriots WRs. And that means Parker will be the most productive fantasy wide receiver on the team…in the games he plays in 2022.
  • Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): 7th-round rookie running back Isiah Pacheco is also a late-round pick worth taking a shot on. The explosive 4.37 Rutgers running back is a sleeper candidate to eat into CEH’s workload on early downs and in the red zone. Pacheco is generating a ton of hype out of training camp, so there’s also a chance that he takes on larger than expected role on the Chiefs offense. The two backs have swapped first-team reps on a near-daily basis

Final Round Targets

  • Joshua Palmer (WR – LAC): As a rookie, Palmer averaged over seven targets per game and scored a touchdown in his three games with a 60% snap share. He was also extremely efficient in the end zone, catching three of his five total end-zone targets for TDs.
  • Darrel Williams (RB – ARI): In the six games that Williams was the clear-cut starter in the Chiefs’ backfield, he averaged 19 fantasy points per game (PPR) on 18.3 touches per game. He also averaged nearly 100 yards from scrimmage (96.3). Williams is the James Conner backup to target across all formats, as he’d likely inherit the RB1 role should the injury-prone starter go down. His body of work as a receiver and goal-line back presents him with immediate fantasy RB1 upside.
  • Gerald Everett (TE – LAC): Everett was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks. Everett has proven he can be a featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year.
  • Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI): David Montgomery is in the final year of his rookie contract, and the new coaching regime will have no loyalty toward him. Already been demoted to special teams, LOL. Herbert was PFF’s fourth-highest-graded rusher (84.6) from Weeks 5-8 with Montgomery sidelined. The rookie rushed for at least 72 yards in all four games. Montgomery rushed for 72 yards four times all season.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS): According to Commanders head coach Ron Rivera, we could see third-rounder Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson work together in a similar fashion to how Jonathan Stewart and De’Angelo Williams operated during Rivera’s tenure in Carolina. Coaches lie all the time so I wouldn’t overreact, but Robinson owning a legitimate 1B role on offense isn’t shocking based on Gibson’s injuries/fumbles and their investment in the Alabama running back in this year’s draft. Not to mention, Robinson has been the more impressive of the two backs this summer, earning starter reps in the team’s first two preseason games. Robinson finished third in missed tackles and seventh in PFF rushing grade (90.4) while also flashing his chops in the passing game last season. He caught 35 of 38 targets for 296 receiving yards. B-Rob is far from a can’t-miss prospect but offers the physicality and size to be a thumper for the Commanders. Just note that he might miss some time to start the season after suffering non life-threatening injuries in a robbery attempt. Still worth stashing until a timetable for his return is released. You can probably wait longer have Round 10 to potentially grab Washington’s future RB1 as his ADP craters from his NFI status, knocking him out at least four weeks.

Honorable Mentions: Justin Fields, Jahan Dotson, K.J. Osborn, Jeff Wilson Jr., Logan Thomas, Ameer Abdullah, Jerick McKinnon, Damien Williams, Irv Smith Jr., Hayden Hurst, Brevin Jordan and Mo Alie-Cox.

Andrew Erickson’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings

 

 

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