We looked at some ADP risers and fallers from leagues drafting early a month ago. With the season almost here, it felt like a good time to revisit this and look at the players whose values have changed the most in August. If you haven’t drafted yet, this should give you an idea about which players are picking up steam and whose values are slipping.
Below we list a “riser” and a “faller” for each position, along with an opinion on why the player’s value is changing. Please note this has nothing to do with rankings – it is strictly based on ADP (half-point PPR scoring). Check out our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to compare rankings to ADP.
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Quarterbacks
Riser: Baker Mayfield (QB – CAR)
Mayfield made this list last month as well. Since then, the Panthers have officially announced him as their starter, and his ADP has risen a few more spots. He isn’t a starter in a 1QB league, but he’s a solid backup with upside, given the weapons around him in Carolina. Baker also has entered the conversation in SuperFlex leagues, where he is now a viable consideration as your second quarterback.
Faller: Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ)
Wilson’s fall is injury related. If you’re just starting your research, Wilson tore his meniscus in the Jets’ preseason game against the Eagles on August 12. He will miss the beginning of the season at a minimum. Wilson was an iffy fantasy proposition a month ago with an ADP in the mid-20s. Now he’s basically undraftable outside of dynasty leagues.
Running Backs
Riser: Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
Pierce’s ADP keeps rising as he’s had a strong camp and most recently because Marlon Mack did not make the Texans roster. Mack signed on with the practice squad, but it’s clear that Pierce has the opportunity to run away with the job as the only other back to challenge him for touches right now is Rex Burkhead. Despite his ADP rise, Pierce still looks like a value as his ADP lags far behind his ECR.
Faller: Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
This designation would have gone to Antonio Gibson again, as he continued his slide down draft boards in August amid the rise of Brian Robinson. But after the horrific attack on Robinson, Gibson’s fantasy status is likely to reverse. As awful as the circumstances are, we’ll pivot to Akers, whose ADP has also been trending down. Akers missed some time with a soft-tissue injury this camp, but more importantly, word out of Rams’ camp makes it sound as if their backfield may be a committee this year. In addition to Darrell Henderson, rumor has it that rookie Kyren Williams may also be in the mix for touches. This uncertainty has Akers dropping from an RB2 to an RB3 over the past month.
Wide Receivers
Riser: Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Reports out of Broncos camp indicate that Sutton has developed excellent chemistry with Russell Wilson this summer. Sutton already has a top-20 wide receiver season under his belt, so now that he has a premier QB, the sky may be the limit. Even with his ADP rising, it still lags his ECR, which is in the mid-teens among wideouts. Sutton is emerging as a draft-day value even with his stock rising.
Faller: DK Metcalf (WR – SEA) and Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
The two talented Seattle wide receivers have both dropped a few slots in ADP this past month. Seattle’s offense looks shaky heading into the season, and the recent announcement that Geno Smith would start Week 1 probably made things worse. The Seahawks seem content to play the season out and hopefully be in a position to draft a QB high next spring. That doesn’t bode well for Metcalf and Lockett’s fantasy prospects in 2022.
Tight End
Riser: Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL)
No one’s stock rose more this preseason than Likely’s. He was productive in the two games he played, especially Preseason Game 2 when he exploded for 100 yards and a TD. Even though he is second on the tight end depth chart to superstar Mark Andrews, there’s a path to playing time for the rookie. The Ravens use multiple tight end sets frequently and aren’t deep on pass-catchers with Marquise Brown now in Arizona. Likely still has to prove he can produce fantasy-worthy numbers once the season starts, but he has our attention.
Faller: Logan Thomas (TE – WAS)
Thomas’ recovery from his ACL tear in December has been slow. He started the preseason on the PUP list, and the Commanders didn’t activate him until August 22. His status has spooked fantasy managers who are unsure of his availability to start the season. He’s not being drafted in most leagues at this point, which could make him a value down the road if he can prove he’s healthy. However, we need to see him on the field first.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.