Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 1 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on your league’s scoring system, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are useful to help you analyze the game. Therefore, I will provide my analysis for every team based on the stats from last season.

Stats via FTN Fantasy

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback Stats: Kyler Murray – 3,787 passing yards | 3,846 air yards | 8.0 aDOT | 481 pass attempts | 69.2% competition rate

Analysis: Marquise Brown is in a great position to have a monster year in 2022. Last season he had the eighth-most air yards with 1,631. Meanwhile, Kirk led the team last year, while Green likely won’t see 92 targets again this season.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback Stats: Matt Ryan – 3,968 passing yards | 3,983 air yards | 7.1 aDOT | 560 pass attempts | 67% competition rate

Analysis: Ryan had one of the lowest aDOTs in the NFL last season, yet Pitts had the second-most air yards among tight ends. While Drake London should have a high target share, Pitts likely leads all tight ends in air yards this year.

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Stats: Lamar Jackson – 2,882 passing yards | 3,545 air yards | 9.3 aDOT | 382 pass attempts | 64.4% competition rate

Analysis: Over the first five games of his career, Bateman had a 19.3% target share and a 10.3 aDOT. With 2,274 air yards from last year’s team gone, Bateman still has Top-15 upside in 2022.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback Stats: Josh Allen – 4,407 passing yards | 5,297 air yards | 8.2 aDOT | 646 pass attempts | 63.3% competition rate

Analysis: While everyone is excited for Davis this year, I have my eye on Isaiah McKenzie. While Beasley had a very low aDOT, he still had only a 4% lower air % than Davis but nearly twice as many targets. If he takes over as the full-time slot guy, McKenzie is a steal at his current ADP.

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback Stats: Sam Darnold – 2,527 passing yards | 2,944 air yards | 7.3 aDOT | 406 pass attempts | 59.9% competition rate

Analysis: Last year Baker Mayfield had an 8.8 aDOT, the fifth-highest among starting quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Darnold and Cam Newton had aDOTs under 7.4. Hopefully, the offensive line can protect Mayfield long enough for Carolina to take more shots downfield this year.

Chicago Bears

Quarterback Stats: Justin Fields – 1,870 passing yards | 2,634 air yards | 9.8 aDOT | 270 pass attempts | 58.9% competition rate

Analysis: Kmet is one of my favorite sleepers this season, thanks to how he ended last year with Fields. In Fields’ final three healthy games, Kmet had an 8.9 aDOT and 195 air yards (27.1% of his season total).

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback Stats: Joe Burrow – 4,611 passing yards | 4,215 air yards | 8.1 aDOT | 520 pass attempts | 70.4% competition rate

Analysis: Chase and Higgins are extremely talented playmakers. Both players will end the year as top-10 wide receivers.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback Stats: Baker Mayfield – 3,010 passing yards | 3,664 air yards | 8.8 aDOT | 418 pass attempts | 60.5% competition rate

Analysis: Some believe Peoples-Jones could be a late-round sleeper this year. However, I want nothing to do with him until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension. Jacoby Brissett had a 7.5 aDOT last year, and Amari Cooper is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver.

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback Stats: Dak Prescott – 4,449 passing yards | 4,602 air yards | 7.7 aDOT | 596 pass attempts | 68.8% competition rate

Analysis: Lamb will see an uptick in targets with Cooper in Cleveland. However, Jalen Tolbert will walk into a massive air % with Cooper gone and Gallup coming off a torn ACL.

Denver Broncos

Quarterback Stats: Teddy Bridgewater – 3,052 passing yards | 3,417 air yards | 8.0 aDOT | 426 pass attempts | 66.9% competition rate

Analysis: Last year Russell Wilson had the highest aDOT of any starting quarterback at 9.9, nearly 20% higher than Bridgewater. With Patrick out for the year because of a torn ACL, Sutton could lead the NFL in air yards this season.

Detroit Lions

Quarterback Stats: Jared Goff – 3,245 passing yards | 3,147 air yards | 6.4 aDOT | 494 pass attempts | 67.2% competition rate

Analysis: The rookie Jameson Williams will miss at least the first four games of the year recovering from a torn ACL. However, once he is up to full speed, there are plenty of air yards from last year’s team he should earn.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback Stats: Aaron Rodgers – 4,115 passing yards | 4,085 air yards | 7.7 aDOT | 531 pass attempts | 68.9% competition rate

Analysis: Almost 2,600 air yards from last year’s team are gone. Can Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs fill that void? Probably not. Expect regression from Rodgers.

Houston Texans

Quarterback Stats: Davis Mills – 2,664 passing yards | 2,867 air yards | 7.3 aDOT | 394 pass attempts | 66.8% competition rate

Analysis: In the 11 games Mills started, Collins averaged 4.2 targets and 45.9 air yards per game. He averaged only 2.5 targets and 24.3 air yards per game when Tyrod Taylor started by comparison. Collins will have a second-year breakout.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback Stats: Carson Wentz – 3,563 passing yards | 3,821 air yards | 7.6 aDOT | 516 pass attempts | 62.4% competition rate

Analysis: Pittman is a star in the making, but don’t forget about the rookie Alec Pierce. Pascal and Hilton are no longer with the team and combined for 26.5% of the team’s air yards last season. Most of those airs should belong to Pierce this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback Stats: Trevor Lawrence – 3,641 passing yards | 4,734 air yards | 7.9 aDOT | 602 pass attempts | 59.6% competition rate

Analysis: Kirk had the 26th-most air yards among wide receivers from last year. Meanwhile, over 50% of the Jaguars’ air yards from last season are no longer with the team, while Lawrence had the seventh-most air yards among starting quarterbacks. A big year is coming for Kirk.

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback Stats: Patrick Mahomes – 4,839 passing yards | 4,825 air yards | 7.3 aDOT | 658 pass attempts | 66.3% competition rate

Analysis: In the two years before Ben Roethlisberger’s severe elbow injury, JuJu Smith-Schuster had an aDOT of 10.3 yards. With Hill now in Miami and Mahomes as his quarterback, Smith-Schuster will end all the conversation about his limited route-running abilities.

Las Vegas Raiders

Quarterback Stats: Derek Carr – 4,804 passing yards | 5,089 air yards | 8.1 aDOT | 626 pass attempts | 68.4% competition rate

Analysis: Carr was fourth in air yards last year despite not having a receiver with over 1,000 air yards. Now he gets Adams and a healthy Waller. A career year is coming for Carr in 2022.

Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback Stats: Justin Herbert – 5,014 passing yards | 5,075 air yards | 7.6 aDOT | 672 pass attempts | 65.9% competition rate

Analysis: Williams had a rough stretch of games from Week 6 through Week 10. However, he averaged 107.3 air yards per game for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback Stats: Matthew Stafford – 4,886 passing yards | 5,092 air yards | 8.5 aDOT | 601 pass attempts | 67.2% competition rate

Analysis: Robinson had a 10.5 aDOT over the past three years in Chicago. Given what Jefferson and Beckham did last year, I expect that number to get closer to 13 this season.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback Stats: Tua Tagovailoa – 2,653 passing yards | 2,729 air yards | 7.0 aDOT | 388 pass attempts | 67.8% competition rate

Analysis: Hill had a 10.4 aDOT last season, his lowest since his rookie year. However, given his new quarterback, Hill might set a new career-low this season.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback Stats: Kirk Cousins – 4,221 passing yards | 4,574 air yards | 8.2 aDOT | 561 pass attempts | 66.3% competition rate

Analysis: Jefferson led the NFL in air yards last season, totaling 230 more than any other player. Yet, that number should improve this year with Kevin O’Connell on the sidelines.

New England Patriots

Quarterback Stats: Mac Jones – 3,801 passing yards | 3,684 air yards | 7.7 aDOT | 521 pass attempts | 67.6% competition rate

Analysis: While Jones had a solid 7.7 aDOT, the receivers lacked downfield production. Meanwhile, Parker had an 11.5 aDOT last season despite Tua’s 7.0 aDOT.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback Stats: Jameis Winston – 1,170 passing yards | 1,337 air yards | 8.3 aDOT | 161 pass attempts | 59% competition rate

Analysis: Despite a lack of weapons, Winston’s 8.3 aDOT was the seventh-highest among starting quarterbacks. While Michael Thomas isn’t a great downfield receiver, his return and the addition of Chris Olave should have fantasy players excited about Winston this year.

New York Giants

Quarterback Stats: Daniel Jones – 2,428 passing yards | 2,616 air yards | 7.3 aDOT | 361 pass attempts | 64.3% competition rate

Analysis: The Giants’ receiving core was awful last year. Outside of Kadarius Toney or Wan’Dale Robinson, I want nothing to do with the New York passing attack.

New York Jets

Quarterback Stats: Zach Wilson – 2,334 passing yards | 2,895 air yards | 7.6 aDOT | 383 pass attempts | 55.6% competition rate

Analysis: In his final six games as a rookie, Moore had 552 air yards (61.4% of his season total) and 51 targets (66.2% of his season total). Furthermore, he had 101 air yards and 11 targets in the Week 11 matchup with Joe Flacco under center.

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback Stats: Jalen Hurts – 3,144 passing yards | 3,867 air yards | 9.0 aDOT | 432 pass attempts | 61.3% competition rate

Analysis: The addition of A.J. Brown will be huge for the Eagles. However, Smith had a higher aDOT and more air yards despite a lower air % than Brown last season. If Hurts can take that third-year leap, both wide receivers will be excellent for fantasy players.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback Stats: Ben Roethlisberger – 3,740 passing yards | 4,052 air yards | 6.7 aDOT | 605 pass attempts | 64.5% competition rate

Analysis: Roethlisberger’s 6.7 aDOT was the second-lowest among all starting quarterbacks last season. Whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett under center, expect Claypool and George Pickens to have an aDOT over 14 this year.

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback Stats: Jimmy Garoppolo – 3,810 passing yards | 3,298 air yards | 7.5 aDOT | 441 pass attempts | 68.3% competition rate

Analysis: In his two starts last season, Trey Lance averaged 264 air yards per game, while Garoppolo averaged 219.9 per game in his 15 starts. Furthermore, Aiyuk’s aDOT increased by 15% when Lance started over his season average.

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback Stats: Russell Wilson – 3,133 passing yards | 3,955 air yards | 9.9 aDOT | 400 pass attempts | 64.8% competition rate

Analysis: In the three games Geno Smith started last season, Metcalf’s aDOT dropped to 8.2 (a 35.4% decrease), while Lockett’s dropped to 9.9 (a 32.2% decrease). The wide receivers are going to miss Wilson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback Stats: Tom Brady – 5,316 passing yards | 5,783 air yards | 8.0 aDOT | 719 pass attempts | 67.5% competition rate

Analysis: Brady led the NFL with 5,783 air yards last season, 486 more than any other quarterback. While he lost Gronkowski and Brown, the Buccaneers added Julio Jones and Gage. Unless new head coach Todd Bowles changes the team’s offensive identity, Brady will be among the league leaders in air yards again this season.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback Stats: Ryan Tannehill – 3,734 passing yards | 3,948 air yards | 7.4 aDOT | 531 pass attempts | 67.2% competition rate

Analysis: Robert Woods is a sneaky mid-round pick in drafts. His aDOT was only 8.2 last year, but he steps into the Tennessee offense as the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver. More importantly, 76.6% of the team’s air yards from last season are by players no longer on the roster.

Washington Commanders

Quarterback Stats: Taylor Heinicke – 3,419 passing yards | 3,762 air yards | 7.6 aDOT | 494 pass attempts | 65% competition rate

Analysis: Wentz had a 7.6 aDOT last year despite only one player on the team having over 40 receptions or 600 air yards. However, with McLaurin, a healthy Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson, Wentz should have a better year throwing the ball downfield than Heinicke did in 2021.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.