We’re here to help you avoid draft-day landmines that can sink your season before it begins. Let’s take a look at a few 2022 fantasy football busts.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
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Fantasy Football Busts
Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “players to avoid” category feels like grabbing at low-hanging fruit. Still, it’s so obvious his fantasy ceiling will be hindered this year without his No. 1 wide receiver, Davante Adams.
The one game the Packers’ signal-caller played without his No. 1 receiver in 2021 was his third-worst fantasy finish of the season. And Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top eight came in a season where Adams missed four games.
The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent than in or near the red zone, with Rodgers and Adams combining for 64 touchdowns — double digits on average — since 2016, 23 more than the next-closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). In addition, 33% of Rodgers’ touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.
Green Bay has bolstered their wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it’s still improbable that they can make up for Adams’ production — especially in the red zone. Without Adams, it’s hard to buy Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022.
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him… J.D. McKissic. That’s because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins’ three.
Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that’s not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore, with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020.
It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will take over the backfield coming off an injury, considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received.
Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) — the sixth-highest difference at the position.
Drafters must understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late third-rounder or fourth-rounder (RB22, 45th overall ADP), he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson’s tendency to not check down, along with the additions of two receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie.
There is some risk that Damien Harris will be used in a 50/50 split with second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson in 2022. Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games they played together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9).
Harris’ production was heavily inflated by his 15 touchdowns, which were nearly six more than his expected output. As a result, the running back’s total expected fantasy points were equivalent to the RB23, and on a points per game basis, the RB26 in half-point scoring.
With a limited role as a receiver, Harris has a limited fantasy ceiling that is accompanied by a super shaky floor if he loses volume to other Patriots’ running backs or fails to score touchdowns at the same rate as last season.
Diontae Johnson‘s expert consensus rating (ECR) of WR13 is super aggressive. It’s vastly higher than my rank (WR23) and slightly ahead of the early best ball ADP (WR18). And it’s a ridiculous price to pay up even for a target hog like Johnson when he will almost surely see inefficient targets.
Too often last season, I was drafting WRs in the third and fourth round who were projected to be target magnets with bad quarterbacks — Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore — and those ended up being poor fantasy selections. Johnson looks like he is in that similar ilk, so I am hesitant to get excited about drafting/ranking highly.
Let’s not forget that last year’s heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Jakobi Meyers (WR33) and Kendrick Bourne (WR30). Moreover, by most accounts, new Steelers’ rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett would be drafted after all the 2021 signal-callers, so what makes the experts so confident that he can fuel a fringe WR1 season for Johnson?
Especially considering Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky have zero ties to Johnson being their primary target. Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Calvin Austin will all be vying for targets in the Steelers’ passing attack from whoever is under center.
There’s also a chance that the Steelers’ pass-play rates drop dramatically with an inexperienced and/or new quarterback. Pittsburgh has ranked second in pass-play rate over the last two seasons with Ben Roethlisberger. During the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed all but two games, the Steelers ranked 23rd in pass-play rate. Nobody on that offense saw more than 100 targets.
Why pay a premium for Diontae Johnson‘s 2021 26% target share at the top of Round 3, when you can take Darnell Mooney‘s 2021 26% target share in Round 6?
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts DK Metcalf in a tough spot.
The alpha wideout rose to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th — same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.
But I suspect that removing their quarterback, who led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury, is going to create a much more significant impact over a 17-game sample size.
Metcalf thrives off touchdown production — 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons –, but scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense.
One of Seattle’s two top pass catchers might be able to get by based solely on volume in 2022, but that’s a bet I am not willing to make drafting in the middle rounds.
There’s also no guarantee that Metcalf holds a stranglehold as the team’s target share leader after he and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares over the last two seasons.
The other major concern is how much raw passing volume is even available in the Seahawks’ offense, with head coach Pete Carroll looking to establish the run early and often.
Dawson Knox has major red flags on his profile from his impending touchdown regression to super-low target rate per route run (14%), so any role that O.J. Howard potentially earns coming in is a massive problem.
Considering Knox is being drafted in the middle-range of TEs that typically have poor ROIs compared to guys going later, the Bills’ tight end remains hands-off.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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