It doesn’t sit well with me to project someone to fail or fall in value. Instead, I like to call those players, traditionally called “fallers,” my “stallers.”
I do not wish to project poorly on a young man chasing his childhood dream. This is why I view these players as ‘Stallers” because their value will cease to rise any further. Below are the players whose values I project to stall out in the coming future, ordered by my confidence of likeliness.
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I have railed against scouting quarterbacks until we have the NFL draft capital associated with them. It is a borderline brand for me at this point, so to stay on brand, I give you Will Levis a staller.
The biggest concern I have with Levis is the fact I have only a one-year sample size, and his TD: INT ratio is 2.4: 1.3. Boasting essentially a 2:1 ratio is awful. The ratio is a full touchdown below what I like to see my quarterback be at (3:1). He also showed meager adjusted yards per attempt with 7.7. For reference, C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young have an AY/A of 11.4 and 10.0. This brings me to my next Levis crescendo; Wan’Dale Robinson was responsible for 47.26% of Levis’s production through the air. Levis’s low AY/A, accompanied by Robinson operating in that depth of the field and carrying almost half of the receiving production, screams staller to me.
I liked Rakim Jarrett coming out of high school. The whole community was claiming him as D.J. Moore 2.0. This is why he is ranked as high as he currently is. Jarrett had a sophomore year breakout, which was in question until Dontay Demus got injured in Week 5.
Not being able to edge out a senior often signals to me that he is not as elite of a wide receiver as we once thought. To make matters more complicated, Jarrett has yards per team pass attempt career average of 1.65, which is nearly .50 below the threshold he should be meeting (2.00). So Jarrett is a wide receiver who only saw an opportunity increase due to injury, has below-average efficiency and now Demus is returning to college for his fifth year. This creates a recipe with all the ingredients for a disappointing junior year.
Tyler Harrell (WR – Alabama) | 2023
Tyler Harrell has one big thing going for him: Jameson Williams transferred to Alabama and blew up the world. Harrell is often assumed to be a “Williams clone,” yet that is very much not the case. Harrell had an average depth of target of 24.9, and Williams’s averaged 13.6. Harrell, from a production and metric standpoint, is truly uninspiring. He has a junior breakout with a dominator rating of 22.5 and a 1.44 yards per team pass attempt.
I have a hard time finding any upside with Harrell, especially since JoJo Earle‘s injury should have opened up the opportunity door, and Christian Leary surpassed him. Harrell being hampered with injury in camp, having a below-average metric profile and being hyped up because of his predecessor puts him as a premier staller this year.
This back is fast. He ran a 100-meter sprint of 10.02, which is an absurd time. Yet the category in which Devon Achane falls the shortest for me is his size. He is currently listed at 185 pounds on A&M’s website. That means that he needs to gain 15-20 pounds to be even considered a bell cow running back, and he needs to do that while maintaining his athleticism.
He is expected to see an increase in his backfield dominator rating, which has a current high of 51.2. The final straw for me is that Achane has yet to register a dominator rating over 20, which means no breakout to me. In a world where James Cook gets drafted in the second shines favorably on Achane. Yet, he is not a riser for me because I believe his value is tapped out largely due to his lack of NFL size.
The Marvin Mims love perplexes me. He lost the Lincoln-Riley offense and the Lincoln-Riley quarterback. He is left with a completely new system and a disjointed team. The hardest part for me to comprehend with Mims is that he has a career average target share of 11.6%. He had a freshman breakout only to disappoint the following year. A down sophomore year does not bode well for college players looking to be fantasy assets in the NFL.
Mims has a career average yards per team pass attempt of 1.56, which is very disappointing since he had a freshman YPTPA of 1.69. Devy managers are holding onto the 11 games of Mims they saw in 2020 and not recognizing how disappointing and dissuading his 2021 season should be. A new coaching staff, new offense, new quarterback and a production profile that is below average makes this a confident stall.
Mario Williams spent his freshman season with Oklahoma, where he failed to impress in any metric. He had a target share of 10%, a receiving yard share lower than his target share and awful efficiency. Yet, Williams is still going in the top 50 in Devy startups. Transferring to USC to be with his quarterback was once an exciting prospect until Jordan Addison decided to come to California.
At this point, I am not sure that Williams possesses the talent to fend off the incoming freshman CJ Williams or the remainder of the wide receiver room. Luckily for me, Williams is slated to start for USC this year which will show the Devy world why he is one of my stallers.
I often called players like Will Shipley a riser due to the injury discount he saw last year. Yet I foresee troubled waters ahead, with the most significant concern being his mediocre efficiency. Finishing 2021 with a 1.53 yards per team attempt just does not get my juices going the way I want it to, especially for a running back as highly valued in the Devy community. In 2021 Shipley also had a backfield dominator rating of 43.5. Again, it’s not bad, but these numbers are not justifying the acquisition cost associated with Shipley.
He also is not a dynamic receiving back, though some would have you believe that. He is currently carrying the Christian McCaffrey mantle. Every year there is a running back tabbed as the “next CMC.” It was Max Borghi last year, but now Shipley has been given that crown. I feel that is driving a lot of his current Devy value. Yet, he is only projecting for a backfield dominator rating of 50-55%, splitting the rest of the work with Kobe Pace and Phil Mafah.
Shipley is being treated as a top-12 running back, yet his metrics show a different reality. Clemson’s offense is showing signs of minimal improvement to add salt to the wound, which solidifies Shipley as a Staller for me.
Tank Bigsby erupted into college football his freshman year, tallying 918 all-purpose yards. Yet, Bigsby has all the cautionary signs that make me concerned about his NFL upside and Devy value this year. Bigsby’s sophomore year felt disappointing, but he broke 1,000 yards and got more involved in a poor offense. Bigsby is a staller for me because of his involvement as a pass catcher. His career average target share is 5.02%, and his average receiving yard share is 4.65%. That tells me that he is not a dynamic pass catcher through two years into his college career, which is a concern.
Running back carries between the 20s of the field are the least productive touches a running back can have. This is why having a pass-catching running back is so important to help offset those low-upside touches. Bigsby is not a bad player. He is a good player, but his upside is capped as long as he is a zero in the pass-catching department. Bigsby may not be a riser this season, but I view him as a staller instead of a faller.
Given the school’s success at the position, it is borderline bananas to call any Ohio State wide receiver a staller. Yet, with the emergence of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the domination of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the target cake is slim pickings. My biggest concern with Emeka Egbuka isn’t with any of his metrics or pedigree. It’s the fact that he is going into his sophomore year and projects to be a bench player behind Julian Flemming, a senior. If Egbuka cannot earn opportunities and show some production, it will tank his Devy value, going two years without much growth.
I almost didn’t add Brock Bowers into this, but what’s a good top-10 without a hot take? Brock Bowers is largely considered the second-best tight end in Devy after Michael Mayer. Yet I am hesitant to go all-in on Bowers, despite an awe-inspiring freshman year. Bowers is a staller for me because he currently weighs 235 pounds. As a tight end that is extremely light, as the average weight for the NFL top-five tight ends is 252.6 pounds, and the average weight for the top-10 is 251.10 pounds. Of the top-5 tight ends, only one is below that weight average, and that is the Unicorn, Kyle Pitts.
Bowers currently needs about 21 pounds to gain throughout college while maintaining his athleticism and dynamic abilities that set him apart as a freshman. That is a tough ride to be willing to take. Georgia also brought in Arik Gilbert to take souls across the line from Bowers. Bower’s target competition jumped from Burton last year to Gilbert, Adonai Mitchell, Kenny McIntosh and the secondary receivers. The low passing volume makes this target competition a bit more of a concern than it would at other schools. It doesn’t hurt that Bowers is viewed so highly in the community, but it is crucial to recognize that he may not reach that honor of being called the best tight end in college.
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