Sleepers can mean different things to different fantasy managers. We’re referring to players that we feel provide upside compared to their draft day cost, otherwise known as average draft position (ADP). Let’s look at our favorite early sleepers of the fantasy football draft season.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
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Tight End Sleepers
Cole Kmet (CHI)
ECR TE12 | ADP TE14
It’s bizarre to be so confident projecting a tight end breakout, but that’s how strongly I feel about Chicago Bears’ tight end, Cole Kmet.
Because no tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons, but Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production — no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.
That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this past year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility — something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.
An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. In addition, he has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.
Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN)
ECR TE16 | ADP TE15
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%) with Darren Waller and George Kittle. Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.
It bodes well for Albert O that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. So although there are concerns about Denver’s third-round rookie draft pick Greg Dulcich eating into Okwuegbunam’s production, that rhetoric is likely being overblown.
Denver was already projected to feature 12 personnel — two TE sets — based on new head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s history. They ranked second in that particular deployment in 2021 while Hackett coached with the Green Bay Packers.
Gerald Everett (LAC)
ECR TE19 | ADP TE23
Gerald Everett is easily one of my favorite late-round tight ends, so I am glad the consensus is finally starting to catch on. He was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he could be the featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch — sixth-most among tight ends.
His peripheral metrics in Seattle’s offense — 12% target share, 63% route participation, and 17% target rate per route run — were nearly identical to Jared Cook in the Chargers’ offense last season.
Cook finished as TE16 overall, which seems like Everett’s fantasy floor heading into 2022. However, the tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook’s average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1).
LA ranked third in that category last season (39.6). They also ranked ninth in TE targets overall.
Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season’s star at the position after finishing No. 1 overall in separation rate (98th percentile) in 2021. And he’s still super cheap at TE23.
Hayden Hurst (CIN)
ECR TE24 | ADP TE24
Bengals’ tight end Hayden Hurst is hardly a world-beater, but it’s hard not to view him as a winner joining the Bengals this offseason. The former Falcon is in sole possession of C.J. Uzomah‘s vacated role from last season offers some fantasy appeal.
Uzomah’s 78% route participation ranked fourth-highest among tight ends in 2021
Every-down tight ends on the field who are often in high-scoring environments will stumble into fantasy scoring. It’s a highly coveted role primed to ooze fantasy points. However, being on the field doesn’t always translate to the requisite fantasy production, especially in offenses loaded with other weapons. Uzomah’s 13% target rate per route run ranked last among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2021. Hurst’s 15% target rate wasn’t much better.
It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that Hurst is the clear-cut late-round tight end to target in 2022, but he is well worth targeting late in drafts. Hurst is just one year removed from a TE9 overall finish in 2020.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings