The tight ends are the final group in the advanced stats leaderboard series. The position is unique. There are different archetypes for the position. Some tight ends are primarily used as blockers. Others are built and used like jumbo receivers. How they’re aligned varies, too. As a result, there was a wide span for the top and bottom of the Target Share leaderboard. However, the middle was more tightly jumbled.
- QB Advanced Stats Analysis
- RB Broken Plus Missed Tackles Forced Percentage
- RB Yards After Contact Per Attempt
- RB Yards Per Route Run And Target Share
- WR Target Share
- WR Yards Per Route Run
- WR Intended Air Yards
- WR Average Depth of Target
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Target Share (Sports Info Solutions)
Target Share is the percentage of a team’s total targets. Thus, it’s measured using full-season totals and isn’t a per-game or per-games played measurement. So tight ends who missed games were dinged in Target Share. The following tables are for tight ends targeted at least 30 times in 2021. Unfortunately, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) doesn’t show cumulative Target Share for players traded in 2021. So, for instance, Zach Ertz‘s Target Share on the leaderboard is only for his time with the Cardinals.
Leaders
Mark Andrews was the only tight end to eclipse a 20% Target Share in 2021, exceeding a 25% mark. Andrews' elite volume was one reason why he led tight ends in per-game point-per-reception (PPR) scoring in 2021. Even though there's a concern the Ravens might revert to running more frequently in 2022, Andrews is an elite tight end who will feature prominently in another advanced stats article soon. Still, his average draft position (ADP) of 21.8 in PPR formats is a little rich. Yet, if he drifts into the middle or end of the third round, he's an enticing option.
Travis Kelce was the only other tight end to average more than 15.0 PPR points in 2021, averaging 16.6. Unfortunately, Kelce missed one game last year, impacting his Target Share. Nevertheless, he was a monster in Kansas City's pass-happy offense, and he might see a surge in usage after the Chiefs dealt Tyreek Hill. He has an ADP of 14.3, but it's not outrageous to snag him as early as ninth.
There's a new head coach in Miami, and they've revamped their offense. Sadly, that means Mike Gesicki is highly unlikely to repeat his 18.4% Target Share. Therefore, he'll probably be prone to volatility with more mouths to feed.
His alignment usage in 2021 provided pause for his 2022 outlook. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gesicki played only 44 of 592 passing snaps inline. He was lined up 370 times in the slot and 173 out wide. Gesicki could exceed expectations as the TE11 with a 113.8 ADP if the Dolphins use him inline more this season. Unfortunately, he could watch from the sidelines more often this year as Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson usurp many of his slot snaps.
Instead of selecting Gesicki near his ADP, why not wait until 140.2 for Cole Kmet? The young tight end's Target Share was only one percent lower than Gesicki's, and he has less target competition than last season and than Gesicki. Chicago pass-catching options are Darnell Mooney, Kmet and a steaming pile of mediocrity.
Laggers
Dawson Knox is the eye-catching player on the laggers' table. He set new career-high marks for receptions per game and receiving yards per game in 2021. However, those marks were only 3.3 and 39.1, respectively. Yet, Knox was the TE8 in per-game scoring because he reached paydirt nine times in 14 games in the fantasy football season.
Touchdowns are volatile, and Knox had only five in his first 27 games in the NFL. The fourth-year tight end either needs to duplicate his touchdown production or improve to avoid disappointing gamers who pick him as TE10 at his 96.3 ADP.
In Knox's defense, he converted from a dual-threat quarterback in high school to a tight end at Ole Miss and has improved. But, of course, it's a commonplace for tight ends to take a bit to develop, and Knox is greener than most. Still, according to PFF, Knox's 1.20 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR) was 25th out of 44 tight ends with at least 30 targets in 2021.
Knox has avenues to paying off for gamers who take a leap of faith, but he's a risky pick. Instead, I advise waiting for Kmet or athletic breakout candidate Albert Okwuegbunam (TE19 and 179.2 ADP). Admittedly, Kmet and Okwuegbunam have cons. Though, it's easier to stomach the risks at their ADPs. As a result, Knox is a better option in best-ball leagues -- especially stacked with Josh Allen -- than in managed leagues.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
