Statcast Review: Freddie Freeman, Dylan Cease, Paul Goldschmidt (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Earlier this season, we looked at Pitch Arsenal as a means to see which hitters are thriving against specific pitches — and, of course, which pitchers are dominating hitters with their own weapons. We are now firmly into the second half of the year and, while some names remain the same, we are definitely getting a clearer picture of how each player is succeeding or failing. In addition, we are not looking at xwOBA this time. Instead, we are looking at Run Value.

Statcast directly links to the explanation of Run Value, but the good news is that it is another solid metric that will tell roughly the same story. We will, as always, look at the hitters and pitchers on both ends of the spectrum.

Pitch Arsenal – Run Value: Batters

Below are two tables for Pitch Arsenal for batters, where we can see each hitter’s success against a specific pitch. The first table is sorted by Run Value high-to-low, the second table is sorted by Run Value low-to-high — where the higher number is better for hitters — and a minimum of 50 plate appearances was used as a cutoff.

Notes

• The hitters’ section always starts the same. Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez have been punishing baseballs all season, and they lead yet another table here. Most impressively, Judge has hit two different pitches better than anyone else in the league has hit a single pitch type. To appear this high with both a fastball and slider is another highlight in what has become a career-defining year. Judge is the only player to be listed twice on the top chart.
• As mentioned in the first blurb of this article, fastballs will largely dominate the chart. That’s easy to see, but it also makes it even more extraordinary when a hitter is feasting on sliders and sinkers. Paul Goldschmidt is also having an outstanding year, and he’s doing it by punishing sliders that aren’t fooling him. Nico Hoerner isn’t in the same class as Goldschmidt, but the young infielder has easily eclipsed his prior high for plate appearances and seems to be growing into a difficult out by taking away opposing sliders.
• Even though Judge and Alvarez lead the charge in RV, Wilmer Flores and Freddie Freeman deserve recognition for ranking top among the group in RV-per-100. Neither of these players’ respective pitch types was thrown as often as many others saw fastballs, so Flores and Freeman are operating with extreme efficiency.
• And then there’s Javier Baez. For almost every article that starts with Judge and Alvarez, there is one that ends with Baez. As of this writing, he is batting a paltry .220 and is on pace for fewer than 17 home runs on the season. The most concerning part for Baez is that pitchers are clearly beating him with a slider, which means that they don’t have to feed him a fastball and challenge him as a hitter. Baez’s teammate, Jonathan Schoop, is tied for the worst RV, and he is routinely getting bested by fastballs. Not coincidentally, the Detroit Tigers are averaging the fewest runs per game in the league.

Pitch Arsenal – Run Value: Pitchers

Below are two tables for Pitch Arsenal for pitchers, where we can see the success of each specific pitch. The first table is sorted by Run Value low-to-high, the second table is sorted by Run Value high-to-low — where the lower number is better for pitchers — and a minimum of 50 plate appearances was used as a cutoff.

Notes

• Dylan Cease’s slider is outrageous. It’s one thing to lead the league in RV, but it’s another to lead by such a cavernous gap. Corbin Burnes — whose cutter is also incredible — is closer to each of the six pitchers that follow him on the list than he is to Cease. Not surprisingly, Cease is throwing his slider at a career-high rate, and it has actually surpassed his fastball as his most-used pitch. The same is true of Burnes’ cutter, which he now features on more than half of his pitches.
• In the hitters’ section, it was clear that fastballs were likely going to lead the way for success at the plate. Conversely, we should expect to see fewer fastballs from the pitchers who rank atop their own list. Not so fast. Eleven pitchers — which makes up more than half of the table — are throwing 4-seam fastballs with outstanding results. Justin Verlander has been throwing that pitch successfully for years, but Carlos Rodon is tied with him in RV when limited to only fastballs.
• When it comes to ranking the pitchers by their efficiency — using RV-per-100 instead of RV — then it makes sense to see so many relievers atop the list. That’s where Max Scherzer breaks the trend. He remains flat-out excellent, and he continues to flourish when going to his slider. Like the aforementioned Verlander, Scherzer has been doing this for years, but we should still recognize the greatness in front of us.
• Seeing so many 4-seam fastballs on the last table featured in this article goes right along with the trend we noted earlier. Still, we can’t ignore what this means for each pitcher. At one point, it is basically a necessity to lean on the fastball and, if they can’t do it with confidence, they can’t do it at all. One name that is surprising to find on this latest list is Kyle Wright, as he is having an incredibly good season to the tune of a 13-5 record and 3.22 ERA. It is clear that wins by a pitcher is not the only metric that matters, but to have those numbers with relatively poor marks from the fastball is interesting. It either means that Wright can actually do better if his fastball can improve or that we are witnessing a pitcher on the cusp of a potential collapse. This is likely why Wright has turned to his curveball more than any other pitch in his arsenal.

Have something you want me to cover in this space, or do you just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.