The running back position is the most volatile and difficult position to project and get right in fantasy football. There are many reasons for that. One, despite starting two running backs or more on your fantasy teams, NFL teams only start one running back. That means there is a lot more scarcity at the position than say wide receiver, where you can see 2-4 wide receivers on the field for each team at any one time. And it is more scarce than quarterbacks and tight ends where you are only required, in most leagues, to start one at the position.
And then you factor in it is one of the most brutal positions to play in football. Running backs are one of the most likely positions to get injured in the NFL. And, every year, we see top players get injured such as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, etc. An injury doesn’t discriminate against talent.
The last factor as to why the running back position is becoming more scarce is the contracts and pay that running backs get. Running backs are one of the lowest-paid positions in the NFL. In recent years, we have seen talent get paid at the position, such as McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott. However, many teams do not see the value of paying for a running back. As a result, they tend to have multiple players and dilute the position. This is called using a “running back by committee” approach. And that means you could have two, three, or even four players sharing essentially one role, splitting time, carries, and workload.
That means the running back pool becomes even more scarce. Because, while more guys are playing at the position, very few of them have the volume of a starter or “bellcow” role, as it is referred to throughout the league. That means there are potentially 12-20 players maximum that will have a full workload. However, your standard 12-team fantasy football league will need to have 24 starters every weekend.
Now you can start to understand the conundrum and challenge for fantasy players when it comes to the running back position. You could say it is very easy to take running backs early. However, if they get injured, then you lose the importance of having your early pick producing and being the anchor of your team. However, can you afford to pass on running back altogether, and therefore rely on injuries and your skill on the waiver wire to try and thrive?
This overview should help answer these questions for you, plus tell you round by round who you should be considering, fading, and why.
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Round-by-Round Review for Running Backs
Round 1
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 1 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- Jonathan Taylor (IND) (1)
- Christian McCaffrey (CAR) (2)
- Austin Ekeler (LAC) (3)
- Derrick Henry (TEN) (5)
- Najee Harris (PIT) (7)
- Dalvin Cook (MIN) (8)
- Joe Mixon (CIN) (10)
The debate is with the first overall pick. And it is slightly in Jonathan Taylor’s favor. However, given what we have seen from Christian McCaffrey previously, it isn’t a huge reach taking him at No. 1 overall either.
To be honest, Taylor, McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, and Harris in the top seven isn’t wild, and they are all worthy of their selection here, given how they will give you such an advantage over the rest of the league at the position. Therefore, while it is chalky, it is worth taking any of those players if they slide to you beyond ADP, or taking them at ADP. It would also not be wrong to reach on Harris if you believe in him, especially in PPR leagues, over Henry, if that is your preference.
Joe Mixon finished as the RB3 last season and benefited from offensive upgrades to record a career year. There is some injury concern around Mixon. However, if you are believing, and ADP suggests many people are, that the Bengals will be as prolific or even more prolific on offense in 2022, then Mixon at pick 10 or even just before, seems like a really good value.
The one player that you should be concerned about is Dalvin Cook. Cook has never played a full season in the NFL, having missed four games in 2021, two games in 2020 and 2019 (where he recorded RB3 and RB5 overall finishes), five games in 2018, and 12 games in 2017. In addition to this, Cook has rarely featured in the fantasy playoffs in a significant way (more than 15 touches). He had 30 touches in Week 15 in 2021, before barely featuring in Week 16 and not featuring in Week 17. In addition to this, he had 29 touches in Week 15 in 2020 and 17 touches in Week 16 before missing Week 17. He also featured in the fantasy playoffs in 2018. However, across five years, he has significantly featured in just six games out of 15, featuring in two more. Therefore, while on a points-per-game basis Cook is right up there, the worry that he barely makes it to the fantasy playoffs, and struggles to make an impact when that time comes, is a concern. As a result, you would not be blamed for reaching for Mixon here or fading.
Round 2
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 2 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- D’Andre Swift (DET) (14)
- Nick Chubb (CLE) (16)
- Alvin Kamara (NO) (17)
- Aaron Jones (GB) (19)
- Javonte Williams (DEN) (21)
- Saquon Barkley (NYG) (24)
Player to target
In Round 2, the clear player to target is Alvin Kamara. The RB1 overall in 2020 finished as the RB8 overall in 2021 despite missing four games due to injury. The worry about Kamara, and why his ADP is lower, is due to his ongoing legal issues after being arrested Pro Bowl weekend for allegedly assaulting a man. However, according to legal expert Drew Davenport of Football Guys, it is extremely unlikely that Kamara will serve a suspension in 2022. That is because the case has already been delayed multiple times, until Sept. 29. It is likely this hearing will be delayed again, and will likely not be heard until after the NFL season. Therefore, it is unlikely Kamara will receive any suspension, if guilty, until the 2023 season. As a result, he is now a value in drafts and should be grabbed as soon as possible, anywhere in the second round.
Players to avoid
The two players of concern in this range are D’Andre Swift and Javonte Williams. Swift has never finished as an RB1. He has recorded an RB18 and RB19 overall finish in his two seasons in the NFL. It will be said he missed time due to injuries, which is true. However, the fact of the matter is he isn’t on a very good team. The Detroit Lions are likely to finish with a bottom-five record, losing double-digit games yet again. The game scripts won’t be there for Swift to get the volume he is hoping for. Add to that the injury concerns, the less-than-average offensive line, and a team still searching for a franchise quarterback, and you have the recipe for a player who is unlikely to be an RB1 again this season. Therefore, selecting him as the RB8 overall seems like a terrible idea.
As for Williams, that offense in Denver has received a huge upgrade with the hiring of Nathaniel Hackett as head coach and the arrival of Russell Wilson via trade from Seattle. However, the signing of Melvin Gordon is of real concern. The Broncos, as a unit, ran the ball well last season. However, Williams and Gordon were essentially in a timeshare. As a result, both finished as low-end RB2s in 2021. While Williams could receive more work, and that is likely, is he going to receive enough to be an RB1? Selecting him as the RB12 overall is incredibly risky, for a player where RB12 appears to be a dream right now, or at the very best, his ceiling.
Round 3
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 3 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- Leonard Fournette (TB) (25)
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) (28)
- James Conner (ARI) (30)
- David Montgomery (CHI) (33)
- Cam Akers (LAR) (36)
Players to target
There are two players in here who I think are likely to finish as RB1s this season: Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott. Leonard Fournette in the final five weeks of the fantasy season averaged a massive 22.7 half-PPR fantasy points, which was way ahead of anybody else. He was four points clear of Jonathan Taylor, who was second over this timespan (running backs needed to have played a minimum of three games in this span to qualify). That isn’t just him being No. 1. He dominated the position and was a league-winner down the stretch. Fournette benefited from not having Ronald Jones competing for touches, and he took advantage. Ronald Jones is now with the Kansas City Chiefs, and while there are some other guys on the depth chart, expect Fournette to dominate the backfield touches, and challenge for a top-five overall running back finish.
Elliott is being faded due to Pollard being “more explosive” with his touches. However, the thing that appeals about Elliott is that he is durable, and still contributes significant points despite being hurt. Elliott has always finished as an RB1 in fantasy football in half-PPR scoring. Even when he was suspended for six games in 2017, he still finished as the RB10. Elliott has been remarkably consistent. He is also on an explosive offense. With some talent leaving this offseason, the noise from coaches and ownership is that Elliott has to be used even more. Elliott will get a lot of the red-zone work, and a lot of the important, high-value touches. Tony Pollard shouldn’t scare you from selecting Elliott; it should make you more excited to take him. Having that talented second back means Elliott can get rest from multiple series in games, and remain fresh throughout the season. He looks like a shoo-in at this stage to finish as a low-end RB1 once again, which suits the RB15 price tag.
Player to avoid
Cam Akers has played just nine regular-season games in the NFL. There is no question that Akers is a talent, on a talented offense. However, we just have not seen enough of Cam Akers to draw a reasonable conclusion about where he will likely finish this season. While RB18 is not an expensive price tag, taking him in the third round just seems a bit rich for a player who has missed more games than he has played in his NFL career. While he still appears to have the backing of the coaching staff, and he appears healthy this offseason, can Akers survive the intensity and grueling nature of an NFL season as a bellcow running back? That is a question you need to ask yourself before you consider selecting him at the back end of Round 3.
Round 4
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 4 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- Antonio Gibson (WAS) (41)
- Josh Jacobs (LV) (44)
- Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) (46)
Player to target
Josh Jacobs is another player, similar to Ezekiel Elliott, that receives a downgrade due to not being as flashy or explosive. However, in his three years in the NFL, Jacobs has managed RB14, RB8, and RB18 half-PPR finishes at the running back position. He is currently coming off the board at RB20, a position he has always beaten. Let’s not forget that two years ago, he was playing on a team where the notable WR1 was Nelson Agholor, a free-agent signing, and rookie speedster Henry Ruggs, still learning his trade. Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders had to deal with relocation, losing their coach to a racism scandal and playing under an interim coach for the season, and cutting Henry Ruggs after he was involved in a deadly automobile accident which resulted in the death of the driver of the other vehicle. Any of these three incidents would have been enough to cause havoc. All three, almost simultaneously, showed the character of quarterback Derek Carr, the coaching staff, and the players, to carry on and then make the playoffs. This season, with new head coach Josh McDaniels at the helm, and new star wide receiver Davante Adams in the building, the Raiders will look to build on their success last season. That will mean an even more prominent role for Jacobs. He is a steal at his current ADP.
Player to avoid
None of them. All three are worthy of picks in this range. Antonio Gibson has recorded two RB12 overall finishes in half PPR in both of his seasons in the NFL so far. However, he does have some challenges trying to repeat that for the third season in a row. Notably, a third different quarterback in three seasons, some offensive line challenges, and more competition than ever before from J.D. McKissic and rookie Brian Robinson Jr.
As for Travis Etienne, the worry is how Doug Pederson has historically used his running backs. From a 26-24 win over the Chargers in 2017, Doug Pederson did not have a 100-yard rusher for a staggering 45 games in a row. That mark was finally broken by Miles Sanders in Week 15 of the 2019 season. However, in two years and 29 games played (including one playoff game), Sanders broke the 100-yard barrier rushing only three times. Boston Scott, who received a lot of playing time alongside Sanders, never reached that mark under Pederson. That is because Pederson believes in managing the workload of his running backs. In the 29 games Miles Sanders played under Pederson, he only managed 20 touches or more on five occasions.
Now, talent might prevail, and Etienne, a first-round pick by the Jaguars in 2020, might be a better talent than Miles Sanders. However, there is some caution in selecting a player like Etienne based on a coach, who has shown he likes to manage the workload of his running backs. And, with James Robinson on the roster, Pederson might feel he has a more than capable duo to share the load in 2022.
Round 5
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 5 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- J.K Dobbins (BAL) (49)
- Elijah Mitchell (SF) (50)
- Breece Hall (NYJ) (51)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) (60)
Player to select
Breece Hall is someone who is a huge value in drafts right now. An explosive running back, he is the best in this 2022 rookie class at this position. And, with the Jets investing in their offensive line, and their other weapons within their offense, including selecting Garrett Wilson in the first round to join 2021 first-round selection Elijah Moore in a new, more talented receiving corps, there is reason to be bullish on Hall. Michael Carter didn’t quite have the impact the coaching staff was hoping for last season. That is why they went back to the draft and selected Hall. It might take Hall a few weeks to get up and running. It might not. However, expect the Jets to be better on offense and for Hall to be a focal point once he usurps Carter at the top of the depth chart and dominates the snap counts and touches.
Player to avoid
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has never hit the heights of being a first-round selection in both the NFL Draft and fantasy drafts. As a result, his ADP has fallen to record lows in 2022. That is because the Chiefs have lost confidence in him in terms of being able to support a full workload. Now, it must be said, he came into the 2020 and 2021 seasons hurt. And he aggravated those injuries during the season, meaning he missed time. This season, he is coming in with a clean bill of health. However, he is also coming in with more competition. Jerick McKinnon looked strong at times last season, while the Chiefs have added Ronald Jones to their running back corps. Not to mention that rookie Isiah Pacheco is impressing in camp, as well. It is hard to see where Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to deliver more than his RB25 ADP currently. Especially when you see the wide receivers and quarterbacks you can pass up at a similar range right now.
Round 6
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 6 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- A.J. Dillon (GB) (63)
- Damien Harris (NE) (67)
- Miles Sanders (PHI) (71)
Player to select
Miles Sanders, who has already been mentioned, is a screaming value in this range. Earlier this offseason, I mentioned positive touchdown regression candidates. Miles Sanders is one of the biggest ones out there. Last season, Sanders didn’t manage to score a single touchdown, despite a sizable workload of 171 touches in 12 games (that’s a 17-game pace of 231 touches). He underperformed by almost six touchdowns as a result. This positive regression to the mean would have seen Sanders finish as the RB23 in half-PPR points per game amongst all running backs (minimum six games played). He is currently the RB28 in drafts. While his ceiling will be capped by Jalen Hurts running the football, Sanders has a chance to finish as a low-end RB2. He appears like a good value in drafts this season and is well priced in this range.
Player to avoid
None. Both Dillon, coming off an RB2 year, and Harris, finishing as the RB13, appear to be worth picking in this range should your roster construction require a running back here and there isn’t a better value at wide receiver or quarterback on the board.
Round 7
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 7 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) (78)
- Kareem Hunt (CLE) (79)
- Devin Singletary (BUF) (82)
- Tony Pollard (DAL) (83)
Player to select
Cordarrelle Patterson is a huge value here. Finishing as the RB8 last season, he sees himself in a position where not a lot has changed. There has been a significant downgrade at quarterback, while the Falcons have drafted Drake London to add to 2021 first-round selection Kyle Pitts as the main weapons in the offense. However, Calvin Ridley has been suspended for the season for illegal sports betting, while Russell Gage has departed in free agency to division-rival Tampa Bay. Therefore, Patterson is unlikely to see fewer touches than he saw last year. He might not be as efficient as he was in 2021, as there is a likely regression there, especially with the receiving yards. But it is unlikely he is going to dip enough for him to warrant falling from RB8 last year, to RB29 this year, which is where he is being selected now. The Falcons are too talent-poor to not use Patterson, despite bringing in Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier to bolster up the running back room. At this moment in time, it looks like Olamide Zaccheaus will be starting as their WR2. It’s hard to see how Patterson sees a reduction in workload as it stands.
Player to avoid
Kareem Hunt is an avoid-at-all-cost pick right now. After threatening to hold in and go on strike unless he is either paid or traded, it seems Hunt’s time with the Cleveland Browns is coming to an end. The Browns were unlikely to pay Hunt the $6.25 million he was due this year if Watson’s suspension is going to be increased. However, in light of this recent development, it seems almost impossible that Hunt remains with the Browns. The Browns can cut Hunt and save $4.75 million on the cap if he fails to make the final 53. They do have talented running back D’Ernest Johnson who will likely step up into the RB2 role on the roster. There is the argument that Hunt will be picked up and could land in a good situation. However, how likely is it that Hunt will land in a better position than he is in right now? Extremely unlikely. As a result, it is best to avoid Kareem Hunt at all costs right now.
Round 8
Here is an overview of the players who currently have a Round 8 ADP (overall ADP in brackets).
- Rashaad Penny (SEA) (86)
- Chase Edmonds (ARI) (92)
- Kenneth Walker (SEA) (97)
- Melvin Gordon (DEN) (98)
Player to select
Melvin Gordon has already been mentioned for his RB2 exploits last year and split time in the backfield in Denver with Javonte Williams. Right now, he is coming off the board as RB36 in drafts. That ADP is likely to be smashed for all the reasons people are bullish on Javonte Williams. It is clear that fantasy managers don’t think Gordon will be featured as much this season as he was last season. However, with a sizable contract of $2.5 million for this year, and a coach who likes to utilize two running backs in Nathanial Hackett (he was the offensive coordinator in Green Bay, where he had Aaron Jones finish as an RB1 and A.J. Dillon finish as an RB2 last season). Therefore, it is likely that Gordon, who might see a reduction in work in 2022 to Williams, will smash his current ADP and be in contention to finish as a low-end RB2 once again.
Player to avoid
None. You will have to gamble on Rashaad Penny vs Kenneth Walker here. I can only see one of these players beating their ADP. However, at this stage, it is hard to determine which one. Penny is a former first-round pick, who was a league-winner in the fantasy playoffs for owners last year. However, Kenneth Walker was the consensus second-best running back in this rookie draft. Therefore, it is down to preference. Personally, in the situation that Seattle finds themselves in, with trading their franchise quarterback and projecting to struggle this year, it is likely that the rookie Walker will see more of the work for the core of the season. If I was placing a chip down at the casino to say who was likely to be more productive, my bet would be on Walker. However, selecting either and betting on the outcome is a good strategy at this stage of the draft.
Best of the Rest
Below is a list of players outside the top 100 that are worth keeping an eye on later on in drafts at the running back position.
- Nyheim Hines (IND) (123)
- Marlon Mack (HOU) (149)
- D’Ernest Johnson (CLE) (253)
- Trey Sermon (SF) (256)
- Matt Breida (NYG) (281)
These are five players you absolutely should keep an eye on in drafts.
Nyheim Hines is someone who was injured for much of last season. However, in 2020, he finished as a low-end RB2 in a pass-catching role in the Colts’ backfield. With the coaching staff talking up Hines this offseason and the acquisition of Matt Ryan in free agency, who has always liked to pass to his running backs, we could see a comeback to those RB2 levels for Hines in 2022. It might mean a hit to Jonathan Taylor’s numbers, or it might not, considering the team is a little light at the wide receiver position. It is not inconceivable that Hines could line up out wide and run a decent number of routes this year for the Colts.
Marlon Mack is slated to be the starter in the backfield in Houston. He is only in his age-26 season and has shown he can handle a full workload, having previously been the lead back in Indianapolis. However, there is a crowded backfield there, with Rex Burkhead, rookie Dameon Pierce, and Dare Ogunbowale to provide competition. There is also the challenge of Houston likely to finish as a bottom-five team this year, with the game script not going in the running backs’ favor in terms of receiving a ton of volume. However, to grab a team’s No. 1 running back at RB50 in ADP seems like a good bet and great value.
I have already mentioned that D’Ernest, in my opinion, is likely to start the season as the Browns’ RB2 and that they will move on from Kareem Hunt. Therefore, to get the RB2 on a run-first offense, where they will run the ball close to 60% of the time and share the workload, at RB68, is a massive steal. His ADP will jump significantly if and when Hunt is cut.
There is still a chance Trey Sermon finds himself on top of the depth chart. While he was in the doghouse last year, he was still selected a couple of rounds before Elijah Mitchell in the 2021 draft. And, the 49ers traded up to get Sermon. Kyle Shanahan has already shown he is willing to turn over a new leaf and forgive players. We saw that last season with Brandon Aiyuk, who appeared to be in the doghouse at times but looks like a man reborn this offseason. Therefore, if Sermon can take his opportunity when it presents itself — and he will get an opportunity at some point — he could find himself at the top of the depth chart. For RB72 and a last-round selection right now, Sermon is worth that late-round flier pick.
The other player worth that late-round flier pick is Matt Breida. He finds himself as the RB2 on the Giants’ roster this season behind Saquon Barkley. What is significant is Brian Daboll has worked with him before, and heaped praise on him, during their time together with the Buffalo Bills. Therefore, if Saquon finds himself injured yet again, Daboll has a player who knows his system, and that he trusts, waiting in the wings. For RB79, he is well worth a last-round pick or a watch on your waiver wires. While we do not like to pray or hope for injuries in fantasy football, they do happen, and Breida is someone who will benefit significantly should one occur to Barkley.
Running Back Tiers
Here are my running back tiers currently for the 2022 season:
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.
