Welcome to another edition of “Regression Candidates,” where we dig into some analytics each week to identify two players due to heat up and two likely to cool down. With fantasy league trade deadlines mostly passed and the final weeks of the season upon us, this will be our final entry for 2022. So, instead of focusing on this season’s remaining weeks, let’s jump ahead to 2023!

Below are a hitter and a pitcher who seemed poised for bounce-back seasons next year based on their underlying statistics. These two could be draft-day bargains in 2023. Conversely, we also list a hitter and pitcher primed for negative regression. They will probably be drafted too early in 2023 as a result.

We’ll start by listing each player’s YTD fantasy stats through Saturday, Aug. 27. If you need help with definitions, check out our sabermetrics glossary. Thanks to all who’ve followed the column this year. Good luck the rest of the way and in 2023!

Positive Regression Candidates (Bounce-Back players)

Max Muncy (1B,2B,3B,DH – LAD)

This season has been a nightmare for Max Muncy, who has a hitter’s VBR of 169 after a preseason rank of 63. Perhaps his struggles this year are related to the torn UCL he suffered on the final day of the 2021 regular season, but regardless, he’s been a shadow of his former self.

Muncy’s batting average has been particularly brutal. Even after hitting .276 this month, he’s sitting well below the Mendoza line at .186. His xBA isn’t much better at .199. However, a few suggest better days ahead. First, his .211 BABIP is the worst among all qualified hitters this year. Second, his K% and BB% align with career norms, which suggests he’s reading pitches as well as ever. Also, Muncy’s Hard Hit and Barrel rates align with his career averages. So he’s seeing the ball well and hitting it hard – that’s a recipe for a turnaround.

Regardless of where Muncy goes in drafts next season, he should have a much better 2023. He may never replicate his 2021, which looks like an outlier to the positive. However, a return to a batting average in the .220 to .250 range with 30+ home runs seems probable.

Jose Berrios (SP – TOR)

Jose Berrios was ranked and drafted around SP20 this spring but hasn’t delivered to those expectations. His ERA, WHIP and K% are all career-lows, and you can’t blame it on the move to Toronto, as he’s pitched far better at home than on the road. So what gives?

Two things stick out when looking at Berrios’ numbers. First, he’s given up a ton of home runs. His HR/9 average of 1.80 is the worst in the league among qualified starters. This explains why his xFIP of 4.04 is so much better than his 4.84 FIP. Flyballs are leaving the park 16.3% of the time against him, which kills his ERA. Second, his BABIP in high leverage situations is an insanely high .450. His luck under pressure has been terrible. Berrios has been unlucky with BABIP in general (.314 overall), but things have gone especially poorly for him when the heat is on.

The rest of his profile doesn’t look much different than his career norms. His K-rate is down slightly, but his SwStr% and CSW% are close to 2021. Last year he struck out 9.6 batters per nine and had a 3.52 ERA. He’s not walking more batters either, so his high WHIP has to be attributed to hits. Berrios won’t be drafted as a top-20ish pitcher again next year, but he should be considerably better than his 2022 VBR of SP128.

Negative Regression Candidates (Over-Valued in 2023)

Paul Goldschmidt (1B,DH – STL)

Paul Goldschmidt is on pace to have his finest season and is the NL MVP favorite with a month to go. He should set career highs in batting average and home runs and has a shot at RBI. Back in June, we noted how he was due for some regression. But it never happened. Goldschmidt has continued to defy his advanced analytics all season.

As such, he’ll likely be a top-15 draft pick next spring. He currently has the second highest VBR among hitters this season behind Aaron Judge, so that estimate may be conservative. Keep in mind a few facts, though. First, Goldy’s .383 BABIP leads the league. Second, his “expected” stats all lag his actuals by a fair margin:

Goldschmidt has always been good, so we’re not saying he will stink next year. However, a return to a batting average in the high .200s with around 30 dingers and 100 RBI seems far more likely than his production this season. Those numbers are still outstanding but not top-15 worthy.

Tony Gonsolin (SP – LAD)

Tony Gonsolin has gone from fantasy-shot-in-the-dark to a Cy Young candidate this season. He’s tied for the league lead in wins and would be the NL ERA champion if the season ended today. As we noted back in June, he’s had some luck on his side. Gonsolin’s BABIP is an MLB-low .201, and his ERA Estimators (xERA/FIP/xFIP) are all one or more runs higher than his ERA. He’s been a good pitcher this year by these measures, just not a great one.

Much of Gonsolin’s success has been limiting damage as he also has the highest LOB% among starters. However, we should give credit where it’s due, as he has improved in several key areas. Namely, he’s cut his BB/9 in half from 2021 and increased his GB%. He’s thrown his splitter more this season, and it’s worked for him.

Gonsolin may have turned a corner on his career and should be a solid starter again next year. But this year, he’s a top-five SP. Though he won’t be drafted that high next year, a top-20 selection is probable. He may disappoint in that range in 2023 if his numbers regress to the norm as expected.

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