Welcome to another edition of “Regression Candidates,” where we dig into some analytics each week to identify two players due to heat up and two likely to cool down. This week, we’ll look at a couple of players who’ve struggled in July but are due to rebound and a couple who’ve been awesome this month but are likely to cool off.
We’ll start by looking at each player’s monthly splits this season to look for patterns and then dig in with a bit of analysis. The stats listed are through Saturday’s games, and you can find statistical definitions in our sabermetrics glossary.
Positive Regression Candidates
| Month | AVG | BABIP | K% | HR | HR/FB% | FB% |
| April | .243 | .347 | 29.6 | 1 | 9.1 | 22.0 |
| May | .318 | .373 | 17.8 | 2 | 11.8 | 32.1 |
| June | .342 | .382 | 21.3 | 6 | 22.2 | 44.3 |
| July | .182 | .169 | 17.2 | 4 | 14.8 | 42.9 |
Correa’s power production remained in July, but his batting average plummeted. The drop appears to be BABIP related as his strikeout rate didn’t change. Correa had been fortunate in terms of BABIP heading into July, outpacing his career average (.314) each month. Thus, it looks like the law of averages simply caught up with him in July.
There’s no need for concern if Correa is on your roster. He should be fine going forward as his batting average will rebound. He’s a solid trade acquisition, too, if a frustrated fantasy manager is looking to unload him.
| Month | AVG | BABIP | K% | HR | HR/FB% | FB% |
| April | .328 | .362 | 10.8 | 1 | 5.0 | 33.9 |
| May | .311 | .330 | 9.6 | 2 | 5.6 | 38.3 |
| June | .339 | .422 | 19.7 | 1 | 8.3 | 26.7 |
| July | .181 | .200 | 13.9 | 1 | 4.5 | 36.1 |
McNeil’s situation is similar to Correa’s. He rode a high BABIP to a .323 batting average through June, earning him a spot on the All-Star team. In July, his luck turned, and his BABIP and BA dropped despite his K% staying constant. He didn’t go deep in July until yesterday, but McNeil isn’t a power hitter anyway.
So what can we expect from McNeil going forward? His lifetime BABIP is .323, so assuming his K-rate doesn’t spike, he’ll likely settle in with a batting average in the .270 to .300 range the rest of the way. As he doesn’t hit many HRs or steal many bases, his only other value comes with runs and RBI, which are hard to predict. McNeil’s batting average should regress positively going forward, but probably not enough to significantly impact your fantasy team. Unless his BABIP spikes again, he’ll be a solid but not spectacular contributor down the stretch.
Negative Regression Candidates
Matt Carpenter (1B, 2B, OF, DH – NYY)
| Month | AVG | BABIP | K% | HR | HR/FB% | FB% |
| May | .154 | .000 | 31.3 | 2 | 40.0 | 62.5 |
| June | .304 | .250 | 23.3 | 4 | 40.0 | 66.7 |
| July | .343 | .366 | 24.4 | 9 | 36.0 | 51.0 |
Carpenter’s situation is a bit different as he didn’t debut until May 26 and only had 13 at-bats and two hits that month. Both hits were HRs, hence his .000 BABIP in May. Carpenter’s BABIP wasn’t high in June, but he continued to slug as 40% of his flyballs left the park. Due to his unexpected production, his playing time increased in July, and he continued to rake with a high, BABIP-fueled batting average and a stunning nine HRs in 82 plate appearances.
The question with Carpenter is not whether he’ll regress, as he surely can’t keep up this pace, but how much? He hasn’t played enough to warrant in-season comparisons, so we have to look back to the past few seasons to see what he’s doing differently. The 36-year-old batted below .200 in limited action the past two seasons while striking out roughly 30% of the time with a .250 BABIP. This year he’s still striking out a fair amount at 25%, and his BABIP is a not outrageous .305. His Barrel% and HardHit% are slightly up, but not enough to warrant this big a jump. His xBA is only .235, suggesting a regression to his average is likely.
Carpenter’s season-to-date HR/FB rate of 37.5% is higher than that of teammate Aaron Judge. So yeah, that is probably not sustainable either. The bottom line is that the bottom will likely drop out from Carpenter at some point and when it does, he’ll lose playing time on a Yankees team that just added more depth in the form of Andrew Benintendi. If you picked him up, continue to ride him until he cools. But if someone is trying to sell high on him to you, resist the temptation.
| Month | AVG | BABIP | K% | HR | HR/FB% | FB% |
| April | .225 | .280 | 29.9 | 4 | 13.8 | 53.7 |
| May | .179 | .213 | 22.4 | 2 | 7.7 | 41.3 |
| June | .264 | .295 | 21.9 | 5 | 13.5 | 56.1 |
| July | .313 | .378 | 31.2 | 8 | 28.6 | 52.8 |
Matt Chapman has gotten hot in July after looking like the 2020-2021 versions of himself over the season’s first three months. His batting average spike appears BABIP-fueled as his K% in July was the highest of any month this year. So expect his average to recede going forward. Chapman is a legit power-hitter, but his HR/FB% more than doubled in July from where it was over the first three months. Thus, that will likely dip a bit, too, though the warmer weather might keep it afloat.
It feels like Chapman’s July was just a hot streak, not some major turnaround on a three-year trend. Expect a batting average below .250 down the stretch with a fair number of HRs. If your team is seeking power, he’s a good option. However, he’ll likely be a drag on your batting average.
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