Welcome to another edition of “Regression Candidates,” where we dig into some analytics each week to identify two players due to heat up and two likely to cool down. Last week we mentioned a few hitters worth buying or selling before the fantasy trade deadline. This week, it’s the pitcher’s turn. Hopefully, your deadline has not already passed!
Below are two pitchers who’ve been a bit unlucky up to this point and two who’ve been fortunate. As it turns out, both pairs are teammates. If you are a White Sox fan, this could be bad news. Conversely, don’t give up hope if you’re a Giants fan. Each hurler’s YTD fantasy stats are listed below, along with various “ERA Estimators” and other relevant metrics. If you need help with definitions, check out our sabermetrics glossary. We’ll start with the unlucky pitchers:
Positive Regression Candidates
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | LOB% | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 8 | 8.9 | 1.22 | 67.4% | 13.6% | .309 |
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | CSW% |
| 4.54 | 3.69 | 3.65 | 3.38 | 3.46 | 29.0% |
Alex Wood has pitched much better than his 4.54 ERA. If you take away one dreadful start at Atlanta on June 23, his ERA drops to 4.13. Even that is higher than his estimators, though, which range from 3.38 to 3.69. Wood has been unlucky with flyballs (HR/FB%), men on base (LOB%), and balls in play (BABIP). His CSW of 29% is better than the league average (~27.5%), and his FIP- and xFIP- indicate an above-average pitcher.
Wood should pitch to an ERA in the mid to high 3.00 range the rest of the way. The biggest potential hurdle is the Giants’ schedule, which is among the most difficult in the league. They have six more games against the Dodgers and Padres and three more versus the Braves and Phillies. So if you trade for Wood, or pick him up off the waiver wire, be careful how you deploy him – especially when he’s on the road.
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | LOB% | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 4 | 9.2 | 1.30 | 64.4% | 13.1% | .331 |
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | CSW% |
| 3.99 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.86 | 3.15 | 29.3% |
Cobb has been just as unlucky as his namesake and teammate, Wood. His WHIP is a bit higher, but it is more related to the extremely high BABIP against him than to his middle-of-the-road BB/9% of 2.6. His LOB% is also very low compared to the league average, and his HR/FB% is a tad high. Cobb’s estimators and his CSW% indicate an excellent pitcher rather than an average one. He’s had issues staying healthy, but if he’s out there, he gives you a good shot.
Like Wood, you’ll need to review the schedule with Cobb before using him. He’s available in most leagues, though, so he’s not someone you likely need to get via trade. He appears to be an excellent, cheap fantasy option down the stretch as long as the Giants don’t pull back their veteran starters at some point.
Negative Regression Candidates
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | LOB% | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 6 | 5.5 | 1.16 | 82.0% | 7.9% | .280 |
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | CSW% |
| 2.58 | 3.88 | 3.81 | 4.32 | 4.49 | 23.0% |
Cueto isn’t striking many batters out, and he’s only inducing an average rate of ground balls. That’s a tough way to survive as a pitcher, but he’s managed magnificently this season. He hasn’t been particularly lucky with BABIP, but his LOB% and HR/FB% are among the league leaders. His strand rate (LOB%) is particularly remarkable given the lack of strikeouts. Of the seven pitchers with a higher LOB% than Cueto this year, only one, Tony Gonsolin, is striking out less than a batter an inning; and Gonsolin’s K/9 is 8.25 compared to Cueto’s 5.5. It’s hard to get out of jams without the strikeout, yet Cueto has managed to do so.
Based on his ERA Estimators, Cueto is likelier to have an ERA in the 4.00 range the rest of the season than the 2.58 he’s sporting now. Cueto is only rostered in about half of leagues, so most fantasy managers aren’t buying his production. Thus, he might be hard to sell high on. If you’re considering adding him or trading for him, think again. His only value comes from his ERA, which will likely go up.
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | LOB% | HR/FB | BABIP |
| 4 | 8.0 | 1.18 | 78.4% | 9.0% | .226 |
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | CSW% |
| 3.25 | 3.77 | 4.37 | 4.77 | 4.69 | 27.3% |
Kopech has fared well as a full-time starter this season, but he’s had some luck on his side. His BABIP is the second-lowest among qualified starters, and his HR/FB% and LOB% are on the fortunate side. One positive metric for Kopech is his xERA, which is within the range of his ERA. However, the other ERA estimators paint a less rosy picture. Kopech is walking 4.3 batters per nine, so if that BABIP starts to regress to the norm, his WHIP will spike, and likely his ERA.
Unlike his teammate Cueto, Kopech is rostered in most leagues. If he’s on your team and your deadline hasn’t passed, consider dangling him for two reasons. First of all, see the paragraph above. Secondly, he’s thrown over 110 innings this year after only 69 last season. If the White Sox fall out of the race, there’s a good chance they will shut him down for the year early.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.