Fantasy analysts have been touting their favorite sleepers for months, and you probably have a few of your own. But are we all on the same page?
We asked our featured analysts which popular sleeper picks they agree with, and which ones they aren’t buying. Read on to see their choices.
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Sleepers the Experts Are Buying
1. Which of the players listed in our consensus sleepers article has the best chance to outperform his ECR and ADP?
David Njoku (TE – CLE): ECR 141 | TE17
“David Njoku is being drafted as a mid-range TE2 but could easily finish as a high-end TE2 or a TE1. He’s teased us in the past, but Njoku still has the speed, athleticism and catch radius that made him an uber-prospect when the Browns drafted him 29th overall in 2017. Cleveland doesn’t have a lot of firepower at wide receiver, and QB Jacoby Brissett, who’ll start for the Browns until DeShaun Watson returns from an 11-game suspension, has consistently targeted his tight ends at a high rate. Jack Doyle had 80 receptions in 2017 and 72 receptions in 2019 with Brissett making 15 starts for the Colts in each of those seasons. Also, Njoku no longer has to share TE targets with Austin Hooper, who’s now with the Titans. Njoku isn’t going to single-handedly carry fantasy teams to championships, but he has an excellent chance to provide a satisfying return on investment.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU): ECR 89 | RB36
“Dameon Pierce is a slowish (4.59-second 40-yard dash) fourth-round rookie who never had even 800 scrimmage yards in a college season and is now on an offense likely to underwhelm — but he’s younger than Rex Burkhead (32 years old in July) and healthier than Marlon Mack (career-altering Achilles tear in 2020). On top of that, his preseason performance and usage has been incredibly encouraging. In Week 1, he balled out (5-49-0 rushing). In Week 2, he didn’t play at all because the Texans didn’t want to risk injury. And then in Week 3, he started and played all the early downs and a third-and-short on the first drive before exiting the game.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC): ECR 134 | QB18
“I refuse to believe Trevor Lawrence is as bad as what we saw last year, and I’m one of the people who are willing to give pretty much everyone a pass for that Urban Meyer disaster. Not only does new Jaguars HC Doug Pederson have a quarterback-friendly offensive system, but he’s an aggressive play-caller who isn’t going to settle for field goals. Jacksonville went out and paid up for Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram to give Lawrence more options in the passing game, and they’re also getting Travis Etienne Jr. and his pass-catching abilities back after a lost rookie season. Oh, and Lawrence isn’t a statue. He had 18 rushing touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards rushing during his three-year tenure at Clemson, and he rushed 73 times for 334 yards and two touchdowns last season.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): ECR 111 | TE11
“Cole Kmet is a huge sleeper this year. Not only is he in line for significant positive Touchdown regression (he underperformed by close to five touchdowns last year based on his volume using my model), but he also is one of only two reliable targets in the Bears offense as it stands. Outside of Darnell Mooney, Kmet is the only guy in the offense who looks nailed on for 110 targets plus as it stands right now. Kmet had an almost 20% red zone target share and only one touchdown last year. Also, Kmet lined up in the slot over 28% of the time last year, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Jump on the Kmet breakout train, because it is leaving the station in a hurry.”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC): ECR 72 | WR32
“JuJu Smith-Schuster is criminally underrated. He has three top-20 seasons in his career. The other two years were last season and the 2019 season. JuJu missed most of the 2021 season with an injury, while he caught passes from Mason Rudolph and Delvin Hodges in 2019. Now that he has Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, JuJu is due for a massive bounce-back year.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Justin Fields (QB – CHI): ECR 130 | QB17
“Justin Fields is giving me some big-time 2021 Jalen Hurts vibes. He finished strong in 2021 with top-12 fantasy finishes in his final four games and has steadily improved throughout training camp. While the Bears have come under fire for gutting the offense, Fields has formed a nice connection with TE Cole Kmet and has a budding star in Darnell Mooney. He also offers immense rushing upside, finishing fifth among all quarterbacks in rushing yards despite playing just 12 games last season. He could very well end up as a top-10 QB making him one of the best values (and sleepers) in all of fantasy.”
– Jason Kamlowsky (FantasyPros)
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Sleepers the Experts Are Selling
2. Which of the players listed in our consensus sleepers article are you least interested in drafting?
Ken Walker III (RB – SEA): ECR 89 | RB36
“I really wanted to be in on Ken Walker III, but his rookie-year prospects are looking increasingly bleak. Walker is dealing with a hernia that required a medical procedure, and Rashaad Penny — who went on a late-season rampage in 2021 — has grabbed Seattle’s starting RB job by the lapels. Even if Walker eventually gets his shot, his ceiling will be limited in a toothless Seahawks offense that will have either Geno Smith or Drew Lock at quarterback. Seattle’s offensive line doesn’t look especially good on paper, either. I still love Walker in dynasty but not in redraft this year.”- Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Ken Walker III has undeniable upside, but I’m not going out of my way to draft him. Walker (hernia) is already injured entering the season, he’s likely to play behind veteran Rashaad Penny — at least to open the year — and the Seahawks offense should afford Walker few scoring opportunities, given that the team has probably the league’s worst quarterback situation (Geno Smith and Drew Lock). On top of that, Walker never proved himself to have a three-down skill set in college, so he could be locked into a limited role in the NFL.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
“Ken Walker III is someone I will have minimal (if any) exposure to this year. Even prior to undergoing hernia surgery, Walker seemed like a risky bet-on-volume pick. Walker’s lack of experience in pass protection at the college level is concerning and makes him more of a two-down grinder. On a Seahawks team that will struggle to move the ball and in a backfield that already has Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas, Walker is a hard pass for me.”
– Jason Kamlowsky (FantasyPros)
Jameis Winston (QB – NO): ECR 149 | QB20
“I am all the way out on Jameis Winston this season, especially if the price is a mid-range QB2. While I can see why Winston is appealing as a sleeper candidate, there are too many questions in that offense for me to be confident in a QB who, despite flashes, has largely disappointed throughout his seven-year NFL career. While there have obviously been extenuating circumstances, Winston has thrown more than 20 touchdown passes just once in his last five seasons. That season was 2019, when he threw 33 touchdowns to go with 30 interceptions in one of the wildest stat lines we’ve ever seen. That was also in Tampa Bay, where they were inclined to let Winston grip it and rip it. That won’t be the case in New Orleans this season, and my worry is that he’ll be asked to be a game manager for what could be a boring offense. I’m willing to be wrong here, but I’m more interested in someone like Matt Ryan or the aforementioned Trevor Lawrence in this range.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC): ECR 67 | RB27
“Clyde Edwards-Helaire is someone who hasn’t been very healthy during his time in the NFL. However, the team has shown its intention with what it wants to do at the position by signing Ronald Jones, retaining Jerrick McKinnon and drafting Isiah Pacheco (albeit in the seventh round). Andy Reid will not be happy to have his team ranked 13th in offensive rushing DVOA in 2020 and 10th in 2021, according to Football Outsiders. That is why we have seen a huge overhaul from the Chiefs at the position. Reid is expected to run with a committee and then maybe ride the hot hand in games. It sounds like a disaster for a guy being drafted currently as the RB27, as there will be virtually no upside for a player being drafted at or near his ceiling.”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)
“I have no interest in drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He has struggled with injuries in his career, while Isiah Pacheco has been impressive in practice. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I’m not getting fooled a third time.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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