The first playoff event at TPC Southwind did not disappoint last weekend. Will Zalatoris debuted at the FedEx St. Jude Championship with a new caddie and a lot of T2 finishes to leave in the rearview mirror. A one-over-par start was a stark contrast from Zalatoris’ final three rounds, where he went 63-65-66 en route to a three-hole playoff win over Sepp Straka. This included a pair of clutch putts, a tee shot that bounced around the cobblestone perimeter for a few moments, plus a few errant tee shots that put both players in difficult lies.
All six of my recommendations at the FedEx St. Jude Championship cut and produced a T25 finish or better. Cam Smith was assessed a two-stroke penalty during the final round, halting his momentum and yielding a T13 (-9) finish. Sam Burns and Denny McCarthy both finished T20 (-8), while Joohyung “Tom” Kim (-9) managed one-stroke less to join Smith at T13. Tony Finau was dialed in per usual, coasting to a T5 (-11) finish with elite iron play. Zalatoris has already been discussed but his game soared in the final three rounds, as he went seven-under-par, five-under-par, and four-under-par with added pressure due to his four runner-ups this season.
The top 68 players in the FedExCup rankings will be competing at the 2022 BMW Championship. For the first time, this playoff event will be hosted at Wilmington Country Club South in Wilmington, Delaware. It’s the second of three playoff events and will no longer enforce a cut-line due to the smaller field of high-caliber talent. Four rounds are guaranteed for every player, which adds extra emphasis towards inserting players who drain birdies into DFS lineups this weekend.
I’ve focused on six of my favorite players to target based on a variety of factors, ranging from salary, recent finishes, skillset, and ranking in the FedExCup. Let’s dominate and cash out during another intense weekend of electrifying playoff golf!
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Previous Winners
- 2021 – Patrick Cantlay (-27)
- 2020 – Jon Rahm (-4)
- 2019 – Justin Thomas (-25)
- 2018 – Keegan Bradley (-20)
- 2017 – Marc Leishman (-23)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Greens in Regulation percentage
- Birdie Average
- Strokes Gained: Approaching the Green
Course Overview
Wilmington Country Club will be a new challenge for virtually all 68 golfers this weekend. Designed by Robert Jones seventy years ago, the South course is ranked as one of Delaware’s top golf courses. It has not hosted an official PGA Tour event until this year but it has hosted numerous Amateur events, including back in 2013 when Justin Thomas competed in match play. Weather damage resulted in significant renovations, particularly in the past couple of years, under the vision of Andrew Green.
The South course is a par 71 that runs 7,534 yards with Bentgrass fairways, four-inch bluegrass fescue rough, and large 8,100 square foot greens on average. The greens are also comprised of Bentgrass and run approximately 12.5 feet via the Stimpmeter. Water hazards exist but they are few and far between, located on roughly 20 percent of the holes at Wilmington. Sand bunkers flank the greens and fairways alike, so ball-striking accuracy remains a premium skill set. The South course also has a unique four-hole stretch shortly after the back-nine begins, alternating between par 5s and par 3s. Two par 4s on the front nine runs below 413 yards, followed by three par 4s on the back-nine with similar layouts.
The fairways are thin with numerous doglegged curves, making tee shots and strokes gained off-the-tee extremely important. Four-inch bluegrass rough and fescue will create difficult lies on errant tee shots or approach shots, so players will need to have their wedges and putters in top form to maintain birdies and pars on their scorecard.
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Jon Rahm ($10,300)
The 27-year-old Spaniard has been flying under the radar with pedestrian finishes this summer but a T5 at TPC Southwind last weekend gave us a glimpse at Jon Rahm’s ceiling. He saved his best round for last, which is always a testament to a player’s mental fortitude. Statistically, Rahm is ranked first in strokes gained off-the-tee, fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 19th in strokes gained approaching the green. He’s got a steady putter and has seven T10 finishes this season, including a win at the Mexico Open three months ago. Rahm’s game is built to dominate at Wilmington this weekend, making him my favorite blue-chip prospect to target on DraftKings.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,500)
Matt Fitzpatrick has been dialed in with his irons this season, ranking first in total strokes gained and strokes gained tee-to-green. The 27-year-old Englishman is ranked inside the top 30 for all six strokes gained metrics, including strokes gained putting, so he has minimal weaknesses. Fitzpatrick’s birdie average (3.75) is not considered elite but he’s averaging 68.9 as his score-per-round, making his birdie average irrelevant. Fitzpatrick is a great value at $9,500 on DraftKings and should dominate Wilmington with his irons for the entirety of the weekend.
Adam Scott ($8,000)
42-year-old Aussie, Adam Scott, is fighting to elevate his FedExCup ranking inside the top 30 to advance to the PGA Tour Championship next weekend. Scott was very good in three of four rounds at TPC Southwind, using his unique putting style to dominate greens. Scott’s putter is his best club, alongside his wedges, as he’s ranked inside the top 50 in strokes gained putting and strokes gained approaching the green. His powerful driver could create ideal lies for approaching some of the shorter par 4s at Wilmington, yielding a slew of birdies. Scott is a fantastic value at $8,000 and averages over four birdies per round, meaning he will flood DFS lineups with points.
Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Tony Finau ($11,000)
Tony Finau is riding a heater right now. The 32-year-old American has three consecutive finishes inside the top five, including two outright wins, relying on his ball-striking and improved putting to flush out birdies with ease. Wilmington is going to be a cakewalk for Finau, who is ranked 13th or better in numerous strokes gained categories, excluding putting and around the green. Finau is ranked fifth in converting greens in regulation, averages 4.22 birdies per round, and churns out low scores to start and close events. He’s a bonafide star who will provide a rock-solid foundation due to his high floor and high ceiling capabilities.
Tyrell Hatton ($9,400)
The 30-year-old Englishman started hot at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, going five-under-par with brilliant irons and an impressive putter. Hatton’s production slid backward in the final three rounds but he still managed to stay under par every round at what appears to be a more difficult course than Wilmington’s South course. Hatton is ranked fifth in strokes gained putting and managed a T8 finish at the Wyndham Championship a couple of weeks ago, making him a unique value in a star-studded field at Wilmington this weekend.
Cameron Davis ($8,900)
Cameron Davis is a huge value at Wilmington. At just $8,900 on FanDuel, the 27-year-old Aussie has been consistently producing T25 finishes or better in five consecutive events. He doesn’t flash exceptionally well in any particular statistical category but his best strokes gained metrics center around off-the-tee, approaching the green, and tee-to-green. Even Davis’ putter is good, albeit inconsistent, ranking 87th in strokes gained putting. He also has extra motivation to climb into 3oth or higher in the FedExCup rankings to advance to the third and final playoff event at the PGA Tour Championship next weekend. Averaging 3.99 birdies per round, while ranking first in bounce-back percentage, is all the information I need to proceed with recommending Davis as my favorite salary-saving prospect on FanDuel.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.