Let’s take a look at 10 players Andrew Erickson is all-in on early in fantasy football drafts.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
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Andrew Erickson’s Must-Have Players
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is easily the biggest winner as A.J. Brown‘s absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill‘s fantasy success as a Titan. Hurts is an easy top-eight fantasy quarterback next season with top-five status well within reach. The Eagles ranked second in screen rate a season ago, so anticipate plenty of plays where Hurts just dumps the ball off to AJB for massive chunk gains. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run last season (2.72) despite battling injuries throughout the season.
QB Jalen Hurts
Top-12 fantasy quarterback at an 85% hit rate…
In the 20 games he’s played in all 4 quarters.
2nd-easiest schedule overall.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 11, 2022
Trey Lance only started 2 games as a rookie but flashed the rushing prowess that excited fantasy managers during last year’s draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points (good for QB4 last season) and 60 rushing yards per game.
Lance averaged 54 rushing yards per game in his three games played with at least a 50% snap share and finished as a top-20 quarterback in all contests. The rushing mark was the highest ever by a rookie quarterback.
With a strong supporting cast around him, a bazooka for an arm and the QB1 role finally his own, Lance is set to light fantasy football ablaze.
It’s clear that the experts and sharps are convinced that Cam Akers sucks at football after he averaged an abysmal 2.4 yards per carry during the 2021 season after returning from his Achilles injury – the worst mark of any running back with at least 70 carries. But his inefficient production is partially related to the juggernaut of run defenses he faced down the stretch – San Francisco 49ers (twice) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – when in fact no Rams RB ran efficiently. 95% of his rushing yards in 2021 came after contact – the highest mark in the NFL.
Did I also mention he was never even supposed to come back at ALL last season due his Achilles injury? If Travis Etienne came back from his injury and failed to perform, would that be held against his draft stock?
There’s simply too much emphasis placed on Akers’ production when touch volume is the key driver to fantasy success at running back. In the Rams’ divisional playoff win versus the Buccaneers, Akers played 81% of the Los Angeles offensive snaps and out-touched Sony Michel (signed with Miami this offseason) 27 to three. In 6 career playoff games, the the Rams coaching staff has shown supreme trust in Akers by feeding him nearly 21 touches per game with everything on the line.
cam akers in 6 playoff games.
when everything is on the line.
21 touches per game
BUT ONLY 3.5 YPC
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 17, 2022
I expect Akers to be dialed back in as the top RB next season in Sean McVay’s consistent 1RB offense, where the team’s lead back averages 20-plus touches per game. Darrell Henderson has proven he’s nothing more than a replaceable running back that the Rams continue to try and replace.
Akers also owns an easy path to double-digit touchdowns after Henderson and Michel combined for the second-most red-zone touches among RBs last season, but they had the lowest rushing TD rate of any team. They ranked top-8 in that category the 3 seasons prior. Positive rushing TD regression is coming for Akers.
And has the cherry on top, Akers has a cakewalk of soft-run defenses to open the season against the Bills, Falcons and Cardinals. Won’t take long for Akers to pay off his early Round 4 ADP in a high-powered offense.
Draft Saquon Barkley. 2022 is the year to buy back in.
He’s fully healthy and showed flashes of a top-10 fantasy RB just last year. In five games last season when Barkley played a full snap share with Jones under center, the Giants RB averaged 16.2 PPR points per game (RB10). And before his freak injury versus the Cowboys, he averaged 23 points per game in his two healthy starts.
I see serious threat for touches behind Barkley on the depth chart, and the Giants have all the reason to feature Barkley as much as possible for two reasons.
1) He’s the best player on the offense.
2) He’s an impending free agent.
With high-projected volume and an upgraded OL unit — I won’t be surprised to see Barkley turn out a RB1 overall season in 2022.
And before his freak injury versus the Cowboys…
Averaged 23 points per game in his two healthy starts.
w/ no threat for touches…
Giants have all the reason to heavily feature Barkley in a contract year
behind an upgraded OL unit.https://t.co/tZuJyONHY2
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 18, 2022
D’Andre Swift was RB9 in points per game (half-point scoring) in 10 games played before his injury. He led all running backs in receptions (53) and averaged nearly 19 touches per game. That would have ranked 9th-best last season. Swift is a value when he falls into the second round.
Swift only earned 26 red-zone touches last season — outside the top 30…
There’s room for his touchdown potential to grow.
In first 7 weeks Swift posted 22 red-zone touches…
(53-touch pace over a 17-game season).
Ekeler went from 12 red-zone touches in 2020 to 63 in 2021
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 19, 2022
Travis Etienne Jr. was a standout college football running back for the Clemson Tigers from 2017 to 2020 and was selected by the Jaguars in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft -25th overall. However, his rookie season was cut short by a preseason Lisfranc injury.
Etienne is now fully healthy , giving him a leg up on the RB1 role as James Robinson attempts to come back from a torn Achilles injury suffered on December 26th. Etienne figures to be the featured back during the start of the season.
Do not forget what this guy did at Clemson with Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) as his quarterback. During his final season as a Clemson Tiger, he led the country in receiving yards and ranked second in receptions among running backs. Etienne also racked up the most rushing attempts of 20-plus yards (40) from 2018 to 2019 while only carrying the ball 20-plus times once since 2018.
Travis Etienne Jr.
Buy the dip because of James Robinson's heathhttps://t.co/sCAGsbPAko
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 20, 2022
Justin Jefferson has been a revelation since entering the league. He has the most receiving yards in NFL history (3,016) in a player’s first two seasons and is PFF’s second-highest-graded receiver over that span (91.7).
The Minnesota Vikings wide receiver finished 2021 as the WR4 in fantasy points per game (19.5 PPR) and expected fantasy points per game (18.8). Jefferson was the model of consistency at just 22 years old, finishing as a weekly top-20 wide receiver in 76% of his games (13 of 17) while commanding the league’s third-highest target share (27%) and No. 1 air yards share (44%).
My WR1.
Entering Year 3, it looked like Courtland Sutton was on the cusp of true elite fantasy WR1 production, but his 2020 season was lost due to a torn ACL in Week 2. It was unclear how productive Sutton would be returning from the devastating knee injury.
But to start the 2021 season, the Broncos wide receiver looked like his old self. He averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game (17th) and had a 27% target share in Weeks 2-7 during the regular season.
It wasn’t until Jerry Jeudy‘s return from injury that Sutton – and the rest of the Broncos pass catchers – became obsolete in a crowded, run-heavy offense led by a combination of Lock/Teddy Bridgewater. Nevertheless, Sutton finished the season as the fantasy WR46.
However, even in the anemic offense, Sutton still finished seventh in air yards (1,756), cemented in between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, in 2021.
Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver’s trade for Russell Wilson.
Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer – he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season – which plays heavily into Sutton’s strengths as a vertical threat.
Jerry Jeudy wasn't healthy during that time…
But Tim Patrick and Noah Fant were staples in the offense over that span.
Those guys are gone.
suggesting Sutton can still have a high target share…
w/ Jeudy…
who has 8 career RZ targets.
Patrick has 8 RZ TDs last 2 years
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 18, 2022
Gabriel Davis averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game (PPR) and 16.0 expected fantasy points per game in his last six games while running a route on 88% of dropbacks as the Bills finally emphasized his playing time in the offense.
Buy the Gabriel Davis breakout.
Even after running 200 or fewer routes than Sanders and Beasley….
Davis had the second-highest WR3 finish rate on the Bills.
More playing time should increase his floor, and his fantasy ceiling is sky-high.https://t.co/E1F4UxjOGQ
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 25, 2022
With No. 2 wide receiver job his, Davis has a legitimate shot to be a league-winner in a Josh Allen-led offense in 2022.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board. He was PFF’s third-highest graded running back (84.2). Stevenson also ranked 13th in rushing yards and yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Damien Harris.
Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9) with more favorable usage. With impressive reports coming out of Foxborough as a receiver and praise from Bill Belichick to see work on all 3 downs, Stevenson is a dark horse to see an expanded role; making the second-year back a priority target as the draft slips into the later rounds.
He was PFF’s highest-graded rookie RB last year…putting him into a tier with the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara — all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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