Happy matinee main slate day, everyone. Today’s main slate is small, including only six. In addition, it starts in the afternoon, beginning at 1:05 pm ET and featuring the 3:40 pm ET contest between the Pirates and Diamondbacks as the latest start time on the slate.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The streamlined pitching selections for today's main slate are headlined by an ace whose stats are video-game caliber. A lefty quality-start machine is another nifty option, and a pitcher underperforming his ERA estimators is the final suggested hurler.
Happy matinee main slate day, everyone. Today’s main slate is small, including only six. In addition, it starts in the afternoon, beginning at 1:05 pm ET and featuring the 3:40 pm ET contest between the Pirates and Diamondbacks as the latest start time on the slate.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The streamlined pitching selections for today's main slate are headlined by an ace whose stats are video-game caliber. A lefty quality-start machine is another nifty option, and a pitcher underperforming his ERA estimators is the final suggested hurler.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Dylan Cease (CWS) at KC
According to FanGraphs, in Cease's last 12 starts, he's had a 0.65 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 32.4 K% and 32.5 CSW%. Thus, Cease's numbers look like they were amassed in a video game. He's been otherworldly.
Cease is a matchup-proof monster. Nevertheless, he has a favorable matchup on the docket today. The Royals are 25th in wRC+ (91) against righties. In addition, they're tied for 19th in wRC+ (98) over the last 30 days. So, Cease should cut through them like a hot knife through butter. As a result, he's the no-doubt top pitcher on the slate.
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. TEX
Valdez is a GPP option on FanDuel. However, he can be used as the SP2 at DraftKings, even if gamers want to invest in hitters at Coors Field.
Sadly, Valdez doesn't have an easy matchup, but he's talented enough to get the better of the Rangers anyway. In 21 starts totaling 135.0 innings, Valdez has had a 2.87 ERA, 3.27 xERA 3.21 xFIP and 3.31 SIERA. The lefty has also had a solid 21.7 K% and piled up quality starts in an MLB-high 19 turns. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Astros are -310. Therefore, Valdez is an excellent bet to earn a win, enhancing his DFS appeal.
GPP Recommendations:
JT Brubaker (PIT) at ARI
Brubaker's luck will eventually change unless he's a modern Ricky Nolasco. His underlying stats have been rock-solid lately, making him an enticing pick in a plus matchup. In his last 11 starts spanning 60.2 innings, Brubaker has had a 4.75 ERA and a more impressive 3.83 xFIP and 3.97 SIERA. So, it's sensible to lean into his ERA estimators.
But, of course, facing the Diamondbacks is nice as well. The Snakes are 24th in wRC+ (92) against righties this year. Thus, they might be the matchup Brubaker needs to turn his luck. Finally, his salary is attractive for opening up cap space to jam in stud hitters, a move that could pay off handsomely in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rockies have made the most of playing at MLB's premier hitting venue, leading MLB in wOBA (.353) at home this year. Further, they showed off their scoring upside against a righty who's superior to the one they're facing tonight in a Tuesday night outburst. Dakota Hudson has been lucky this year, evidenced by the gap between his 4.20 ERA and 5.48 xERA. So, the Rockies should lay the wood to him today.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 12.0 Runs/STL -125
The Cardinals enjoyed the hitting conditions at Coors Field last night, and they can stay hot tonight against German Marquez. Colorado's righty has been battered for a 5.18 ERA in 21 starts this season. Sure, Marquez's 4.77 xERA, 4.30 SIERA and 4.00 xFIP have been markedly better, but they're not marks to avoid stacking against at Coors Field. As a result, gamers shouldn't overthink using the Red Birds in Colorado this afternoon.
- C.J. Cron has feasted on righties at Coors Field since joining the Rockies last year. In 354 plate appearances, he's launched 23 homers with a .394 OBP, .298 ISO and 149 wRC+.
- Ryan McMahon has raked against righties at home in his career. He's had a .349 OBP and .234 ISO under those conditions.
- Brendan Rodgers has given the home crowd reasons to cheer this year, owning a .384 OBP, .199 ISO and 125 wRC+ in 237 plate appearances at Coors Field.
- Paul DeJong has played like a man on fire since rejoining the Cardinals from a Triple-A stint. In his first 36 plate appearances back on the squad, he had a .389 OBP, .536 ISO, 210 wRC+ and four homers.
- Since last year, Lars Nootbaar has had a 104 wRC+ against righties. Frankly, that's good enough for a player at his salary playing at Coors Field.
- Sam Hilliard is a power-chasing punt. In 236 plate appearances against righties at home in his career, he's hit 10 homers with a .231 ISO.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
It will be chalky, but investing in the Rockies and Cardinals at Coors Field looks like the right move this afternoon. Fortunately, there are ways to get semi-creative, such as selecting options lower in the batting order.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
