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5 Wide Receiver Busts (2022 Fantasy Football)

5 Wide Receiver Busts (2022 Fantasy Football)

We’re here to help you avoid draft-day landmines that can sink your season before it begins. Let’s take a look at a few 2022 fantasy football busts.

Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Fantasy Football Busts

Diontae Johnson (PIT)

Diontae Johnson‘s expert consensus rating (ECR) of WR13 is super aggressive. It’s vastly higher than my rank (WR23) and slightly ahead of the early best ball ADP (WR18). And it’s a ridiculous price to pay up even for a target hog like Johnson when he will almost surely see inefficient targets.

Too often last season, I was drafting WRs in the third and fourth round who were projected to be target magnets with bad quarterbacks — Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore — and those ended up being poor fantasy selections. Johnson looks like he is in that similar ilk, so I am hesitant to get excited about drafting/ranking highly.

Let’s not forget that last year’s heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Jakobi Meyers (WR33) and Kendrick Bourne (WR30). Moreover, by most accounts, new Steelers’ rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett would be drafted after all the 2021 signal-callers, so what makes the experts so confident that he can fuel a fringe WR1 season for Johnson?

Especially considering Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky have zero ties to Johnson being their primary target. Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Calvin Austin will all be vying for targets in the Steelers’ passing attack from whoever is under center.

There’s also a chance that the Steelers’ pass-play rates drop dramatically with an inexperienced and/or new quarterback. Pittsburgh has ranked second in pass-play rate over the last two seasons with Ben Roethlisberger. During the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed all but two games, the Steelers ranked 23rd in pass-play rate. Nobody on that offense saw more than 100 targets.

Why pay a premium for Diontae Johnson‘s 2021 26% target share at the top of Round 3, when you can take Darnell Mooney‘s 2021 26% target share in Round 6?

DK Metcalf (SEA)

The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts DK Metcalf in a tough spot.

The alpha wideout rose to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th — same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.

But I suspect that removing their quarterback, who led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury, is going to create a much more significant impact over a 17-game sample size.

Metcalf thrives off touchdown production — 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons –, but scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense.

One of Seattle’s two top pass catchers might be able to get by based solely on volume in 2022, but that’s a bet I am not willing to make drafting in the middle rounds.

There’s also no guarantee that Metcalf holds a stranglehold as the team’s target share leader after he and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares over the last two seasons.

The other major concern is how much raw passing volume is even available in the Seahawks’ offense, with head coach Pete Carroll looking to establish the run early and often.

Tyreek Hill (MIA)

Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. Nevertheless, the ‘Cheetah’ wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).

It’s worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill’s average depth of target (aDOT) also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest since his rookie season.

Hill was then traded to the Miami Dolphins this offseason, but it’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-10 season with a lesser passer. His current ADP and ECR ranking is WR9.

Especially with Tagovailoa’s lack of a confident deep ball — 34th in aDOT last season — a prominent running game, and second-year wide receiver Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.

Case in point, quick-hitters, and yards after the catch (YAC) will be the focal point of the Dolphins’ offense in 2021 as new head coach Mike McDaniel stems from the 49ers’ YAC-heavy passing offense. Hill finished seventh in yards after the catch last season, so he’s a candidate to take full advantage of Tagovailoa’s “YAC attack.”

49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior.

With Hill’s efficiency marks trending in the wrong direction amid a massive quarterback downgrade, he remains a player you need to be extremely price-sensitive about drafting.

DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)

DeAndre Hopkins will be suspended six games for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drug policy.

The alpha WR falls into the WR4 range for redraft purposes because he won’t be available for most of the season. Hopkins also wasn’t the same dominant target hog in 2021 as he had been for so many years prior.

He battled through injuries and produced just one game with double-digit targets and two games with 80-plus receiving yards. Hopkins saw double-digit targets eight times and went over 80 receiving yards seven times in 2020.

It’s hard to imagine drafting Hopkins over Marquise Brown with the six-game suspension baked in. It’s not worth the roster management headache when the start of the season is so crucial for waiver wire transactions.

Also, there’s no guarantee Hopkins will be returning to the lineup in Week 7 as a locked-and-loaded fantasy WR1.

Adam Thielen (MIN)

Fantasy football doesn’t have to be complicated. And neither does fading Adam Thielen, who failed to finish as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in over half of his games for the second straight season.

The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s just not sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.

Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship who will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Dalvin Cook is long overdue for positive touchdown regression. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally catch up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter in 2016.

With a slew of ankle injuries from last season also foreshadowing more potential issues for Thielen in 2022, the Vikings wide receiver has a plethora of red flags that suggest staying away entirely.

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

 

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