It’s never too early to prepare for your 2022 fantasy football draft. What better way to do so than to mock draft against the top experts in the fantasy football industry! You can use our FREE mock draft simulator to do just that. Let’s take a look at our latest mock draft and player notes.
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Mock Draft Picks: 10-Team, PPR, No. 5 Pick
Round 1, Pick 5: Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
Same old song and dance for Dalvin Cook in 2021. The Minnesota Vikings running back was a workhorse when healthy, averaging 22 touches per game (5th) and 15.2 fantasy points per game (RB11). But the market seems to have soured on the consensus No. 2 pick from a season ago, because he missed four games and his production didn’t align with his usage.
His ADP has fallen to the back of Round 1, and it’s unwarranted based on the impending touchdown regression Cook will experience in 2022. His 15 goal-line carries ranked fourth in the NFL last season, but he converted just three into scores. Considering Cook averaged 16 TDs from 2019-2020, his meager six TDs from last season look like a blip on the radar.
Round 2, Pick 6: Davante Adams (WR – LV)
Adams’ high level of play won’t stop in Las Vegas, but his fantasy stock does get slightly dented going from Rodgers to Derek Carr. It’s unlikely that Carr hyper-targets Adams to the length of a 28% target share as Rodgers has done for so many seasons. Incumbent Raiders pass-catchers Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow represent more target competition than Adams has ever played with since becoming the alpha in Green Bay.
Round 3, Pick 5: Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
Before excelling in the “wide back” role for the 49ers, Deebo Samuel was already an elite option at wide receiver for fantasy football. Last year in Weeks 1-9, he was the WR2 in fantasy points per game behind only Cooper Kupp. Over that stretch, Samuel was leading all wide receivers in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets, per PFF). He averaged an insane 10.1 targets, 6.1 receptions and 110.3 receiving yards per game, so “wide back” or no “wide back” matters very little.
Round 4, Pick 6: Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
Running back Melvin Gordon signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos, ultimately halting the Javonte Williams 2022 breakout season. The idea of Williams playing a three-down role was salivating, but Gordon’s return should not be overlooked after a seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
MG3’s return definitely hurts Williams’ top-tier fantasy ceiling. He’s going to split work with another capable back in Gordon which is exactly what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires and spoke on at the NFL owners meeting in March.
However, keep in mind that Williams finished 13th in touches last season (246, 14.6 per game) and would be the favorite to take another step forward in the passing game — Aaron Jones-esque — after finishing as one of two rookie RBs inside the top-15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (first) and Javonte Williams (13th).
Williams falls just out of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft and best ball, but he’s right on the cusp. I don’t think he can be ranked worse than RB15 considering that’s where he finished as a rookie amid a split workload in a much worse offensive environment.
Round 5, Pick 5: Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Entering Year 3, it looked like Courtland Sutton was on the cusp of true elite fantasy WR1 production, but his 2020 season was lost due to a torn ACL in Week 2. It was unclear how productive Sutton would be returning from the devastating knee injury.
But to start the 2021 season, the Broncos wide receiver looked like his old self. He averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game (17th) and had a 27% target share in Weeks 2-7 during the regular season.
It wasn’t until Jerry Jeudy‘s return from injury that Sutton – and the rest of the Broncos pass catchers – became obsolete in a crowded, run-heavy offense led by a combination of Lock/Teddy Bridgewater. Nevertheless, Sutton finished the season as the fantasy WR46.
However, even in the anemic offense, Sutton still finished seventh in air yards (1,756), cemented in between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, in 2021.
Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver’s trade for Russell Wilson.
Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer — he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season — which plays heavily into Sutton’s strengths as a vertical threat.
Round 6, Pick 6: Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Lamar Jackson had a season to forget in 2021, as he dealt with a plethora of injuries/illnesses and regressed immensely as a passer. Two key metrics at PFF that are important to analyze for QBs are performance in a clean pocket and throwing at the intermediate level.
Jackson ranked 28th in passer rating from a clean pocket (90.4) and 22nd in PFF passing grade at the intermediate level (70.0). Despite all his shortcomings as a passer, Jackson still finished the season second in expected fantasy points per game (23.8) and seventh in fantasy points per game (21.3).
His expected fantasy point per game output marked the highest of his career thanks to the Ravens’ willingness to throw more in 2021. From 2019-2020, Jackson had 37 or more passing attempts in a game only four times. He did so five times in 2021, with Baltimore throwing at a 60% clip.
However, I would not anticipate the pass-heavy approach to continue into 2022. Their philosophical change on offense was forced out of necessity based on the injuries. But a lack of passing doesn’t impact Jackson they way it does most other QBs with his greatest fantasy asset being his legs.
Jackson may never recapture his 2019 rare MVP form when he averaged north of 28 fantasy points per game, but a 22-point per game average seems like his norm based on his last two years of fantasy production. In 2020, he led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. That cements him as a clear-cut top-5 fantasy QB.
Round 7, Pick 5: Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI)
Darnell Mooney is already a star in the making. The third-year receiver looks primed to cement himself as the Chicago Bears’ true No. 1 wide receiver. He already operated as the team’s No. 1 for most of the 2021 season, ranking as the WR27 in half-point fantasy scoring through 17 weeks. Mooney also finished the last four weeks of the season ninth in target share (27%) and fifth in route participation (95%).
With nobody worth much outside of third-year tight end Cole Kmet as legitimate competition, Mooney should build off his 8th-ranked 24% target share from last season. Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown and 25-year-old rookie Velus Jones Jr. should only encourage targeting the 24-year-old Mooney in 2022 drafts.
Round 8, Pick 6: J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him… J.D. McKissic. That’s because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins’ three.
Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that’s not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020.
It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will take over the backfield considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received.
Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) – the sixth-highest difference at the position.
Drafters have to understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late third-rounder or fourth-rounder (RB20, 50th overall ADP) he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson’s tendency to not check down along with the additions of receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie.
Round 9, Pick 5: Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
It took much longer than many fantasy gamers would have liked, but Dallas Goedert finally broke out in 2021 after being overshadowed by Zach Ertz since his rookie year. The Eagles tight end finished as PFF’s second-highest graded receiving tight end (91.1) and as the TE10 overall, with the majority of his fantasy production coming from Week 7 onward. In those 11 games played — including postseason — Goedert averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the TE8 from a season-long perspective.
Round 10, Pick 6: Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
Cordarrelle Patterson enters his age 31 season, coming off a career year as the RB16 in fantasy points per game. After beginning the season in a hybrid role, the team moved him to more of a traditional running back role as the season rolled along. In Weeks 1-10, Patterson played running back on 56.2% of his snaps and outside or in the slot on 37.7% of his snaps. He was a running back for 69.9% of his snaps for the rest of the season, with only 29.5% of his playing time coming as a receiver. Patterson flourished in his swiss army knife role as the RB10 through the first ten weeks before fading as the RB31 over his final seven games. The receiving game is where Patterson needs to be utilized to hit a ceiling. Last year, he was incredibly effective, ranking behind only Christian McCaffrey in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). With age, role, and increased target competition factoring into his 2022 outlook, Patterson is best viewed as an RB3/RB4 with upside.
Round 11, Pick 5: Russell Gage (WR – TB)
Gage is coming off a stellar year after posting career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) while playing more on the outside. Often thought of as a “slot-only” wideout, Gage split snaps 50/50 from the slot versus outside in 2021. He also led the Falcons with a 29% target share since Week 11 – playing 53% of his snaps for the outside – showcasing his ability to earn passing volume alongside the talented Kyle Pitts
Any receiver in a Tom Brady-led offense should be a sought-after commodity – so consider me in on Gage in 2022. There are plenty of scenarios where Gage continues his success from the tail-end of last season.
Round 12, Pick 6: Chase Claypool (WR – PIT)
Chase Claypool’s second-year breakout was inevitably halted by Ben Roethlisberger’s lack of downfield throwing ability: On throws with 20-plus air yards, Big Ben graded 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs.
Claypool commanded a 27% air yards share on the season and led the team in the metric over the final four weeks. Better days should be ahead of the Notre Dame product if Pittsburgh can get better downfield quarterback play from Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky.
Claypool is also due for positive touchdown regression after catching just one of his 12 end-zone targets last season. The 6-foot-5 monster is no stranger to hitting paydirt, after being one of eight wide receivers to score double-digit touchdowns as rookies since 1998.
However, Claypool’s range of outcomes is quite wide heading into his third season with 2022 second-round pick George Pickens, chomping at the bit to be the No. 2 on the offense behind Diontae Johnson.
Round 13, Pick 5: Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Garrett Wilson’s yards after the catch ability will be a godsend for Zach Wilson. His production profile against top competition at Ohio State is impeccable. He’s been top 30 in yards per route run in each of the last two seasons (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). This team needed to add talent around their young franchise quarterback, and this accomplishes that goal. Elijah Moore and Wilson give Zach Wilson a versatile pairing to pepper with targets. Wilson’s talent isn’t in question, but his dynasy ceiling could be capped unless Zach Wilson can take a step forward in year two.
Round 14, Pick 6: Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA)
Mike Gesicki may see his target numbers dip in 2022 in a run-heavy offense alongside target magnets Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. That will make his 2021 production difficult to replicate.
The tight end/slot receiver hybrid finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) through 18 weeks of action of the 2021 season. This receiving and route volume led to only moderate success in fantasy football, as Mike Gesicki finished as TE9.
His efficiency metrics left something to be desired, though — he was 13th in fantasy points per game (9.9) and 15th in yards per route run. Part of that does fall on the up-and-down quarterback play, but it just further cements Gesicki as a good, not great tight end in fantasy football.
My biggest concern is that Gesicki has almost always underwhelmed after the catch – which will likely be a large part of the Dolphins new-look offense. His 3.2 YAC/reception ranked 41st of out 42 qualifying tight ends.
Gesicki did deliver worthwhile fantasy production at times, as displayed by his TE6 standing from Weeks 3-15 (11.5 fantasy points per game). And 94% of his snaps came lined up in the slot or out wide in 2021, which is another advantage for creating mismatches.
But all in all, he tends to only rise to the occasion for fantasy purposes when targets become available in the offense because of injuries to other players.
The athletic tight end will end up meeting his mid-range 2022 ADP/ECR based on his consistent play the past two seasons, but won’t enter the top-tier fantasy tight end conversation.
Mock Draft Results and Analysis
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
