Tons of injury news to break down, so we’re going to dive right in. If you’re hungry for more, hit us up by searching “SportsMedAnalytics” (SMA) on any social media platform and sending your comments and questions.
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The Jets aren’t committing to a timeline, but he had a meniscus trimming (rather than repair). They’re reporting a 4-to-6-week recovery, but data on pocket QBs says they tend to bounce back closer to 3-to-4 weeks without much impact on production. Week 1 is still in question, but I’d lean toward seeing Wilson out there.
Injury Impact: 6/10
The Jags expect him back for Week 1. But at just nine months out from the Achilles, SMA predicts 80% of pre-injury explosiveness to kick off the season. His 90% threshold should arrive by ~Week 9. There’s not a major re-injury risk here, but the Achilles tends to drop RB performance more severely than most other injuries (ACLs, hamstrings, etc.). More on how to play the Jags backfield here.
Injury Impact: 7/10
Definitely don’t love to see a soft tissue issue for an RB right now. While there’s a high chance of a full recovery by Week 1, having a pre-season hamstring strain does tend to make RBs more prone to missing time later that season. Add in nine missed games over the past two years plus a deep committee backfield and we’re probably avoiding Sanders in most formats.
Injury Impact: 4/10
He made a big step by being cleared for contact practice. A return in Weeks 1-3 is looking increasingly likely, but the key here is production. SMA projects 85% in October and 90% by November. If he plays in September, don’t be surprised to see him on a snap count.
Injury Impact: 6/10
He’s managing an injury that we’ve said from the beginning is probably getting overhyped. Stafford just played in an intra-squad scrimmage and reports feeling good. No indication of a setback here.
Injury Impact: 3/10
Had a procedure for a “hernia-like” condition. Recovery averages 4-to-6 weeks, and I’d lean towards seeing him play Week 1. Performance doesn’t usually drop from these, so if you believed in him before, you probably still should.
Injury Impact: 4/10
Dealing with a mild soft tissue injury. Obviously not what you want to hear about a guy coming off of an Achilles, but I wouldn’t read too much into this one. 3-to-4 weeks is plenty of time to heal this injury, and most wouldn’t be an in-season durability risk if truly mild (hamstrings tend to be the main exception).
Injury Impact: 4/10
They’re calling it 6-to-10 weeks with a Jones fracture. Average for a player with Washington’s style is 8-to-9, so probability favors a return in Weeks 4-6 of the season. There is a temporary performance decline, but he should be close to full strength by Week 8 of this year.
Injury Impact: 6/10
He’d be beating RB position averages to play Week 1, but SMA calls it a 75% chance of happening based on deeper injury analytics. He’s young and hyper-athletic and is therefore projected to be 85% of peak explosiveness if he plays Week 1. Still, because of his clear long-term potential, we’d expect to see him ramped up on a snap count over the course of his first three games.
Injury Impact: 4/10
No injury to report here, but it’s worth noting that we shouldn’t be too surprised if he rapidly outpaces his college stats. He briefly shined at the end of 2020 with 250 yards and three TDs in two games against top 25 opponents, but then tore his ACL in March 2021. He went hyper-speed through rehab, came back in under nine months and put up pretty underwhelming numbers in both UGA games and the combine. But, that’s exactly what WR ACL data would’ve predicted that soon after the injury. So when it comes to George Pickens, we’ve probably only scratched the surface of his potential.
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