There is a strategy to consider as you enter the last month of baseball. It’s possible that you have a starting pitcher on your team who is normally solid but he has been a borderline talent for a few games (Logan Webb comes to mind here). You’ll be lucky to get five or six more starts out of him for the rest of the season. In addition, you might NEED innings. So, it might be time to make a tough decision if it’s possible to rank in your rotisserie league. Look at your rotation, look at the remaining innings, and do the math. Ask the following question:
Should I take one (maybe two) pitching spots and stream matchups?
Again, that depends on where you are. In a league where you have a cap of 1,300 innings, if you’re in the 900 range, you’re in trouble. If you’re lagging behind in innings and you have a solid lead in ERA/WHIP, then this is an easier equation. You can afford to stream and absorb any bad outings.
Moreover, if you weren’t careful about stockpiling a few arms before the trade deadline, and you’ve had a few injuries (Zach Wheeler, perhaps), then it might be time to use a streaming strategy (even if you tend to stay away from it).
Let us help. In this article, I choose pitchers available in 30% of Yahoo leagues or less (to maximize availability). I will tell you if it seems like a bad day to stream, but I will always choose at least one guy.
Here we go!
Monday, Aug. 29
Brayan Bello (BOS) at MIN: 4%
Bello has a 7.36 ERA and a 3.04 FIP. The reality is that Bello has only completed 22 innings so far in the majors, and the first few outings (against Tampa Bay and Toronto) were rough. I’m excited about his last outing on Aug. 24 against Toronto. He pitched five innings, struck out seven batters, and only gave up two runs. Bello had a CSW of 33.8%. His SwStr% is 11% for the year, but in that Toronto game, it was 20%. He commanded the pitch in the zone while also maintaining the same chase frequency. I should also point out that Boston is hitting a lot better lately. They’re second in runs scored in the last two weeks while Minnesota is 21st. Let’s see if he can give us a gem.
Other option: No thanks
Tuesday, Aug. 30
Matt Manning (DET) vs. SEA: 21%
Manning has a 2.37 ERA to go along with a 3.23 FIP. His LOB% is 84.7%, so he has been somewhat lucky. Nevertheless, we’re seeing more control from the 24-year-old former first-round pick. In 38 IP, Manning has a BB/9 of 2.13. I realize it’s a small sample, but that’s a solid number. In Double-A (2019), he had 2.56 BB/9 in nearly 133 IP. He pitched to a 2.56 ERA that season, and all of the underlying stats agreed with it. He had better strikeout and ground-ball rates in that season, but what we may be seeing is a steady transfer of skills. If he can bring those numbers up, he may be an ace for Detroit. In his previous outing against the Giants, he went six innings, struck out eight, and walked…zero. In his previous 18 innings, he has walked two batters. Seattle is 25th in runs scored in the last month and 20th in the last two weeks. It may surprise you to learn that Detroit is 15th in runs scored in the last two weeks. Let’s take Manning for a spin, and maybe even consider holding him.
Other option: Spenser Watkins (BAL) at CLE: 8%
Wednesday, Aug. 31
Mitch White (TOR) vs. CHC: 10%
I could go with Marco below, but his 4.97 FIP scares me a little. Mitch White has also been wobbly for the last couple of outings, but in our streaming world, that only means he’s available. Hitters have a .298 BABIP against him, and last year in nearly 47 IP, he had a .256 BABIP. That number led to a 3.66 ERA, which is closer to his 3.81 FIP. White is using the slider a lot more this year, but unfortunately, it hasn’t been as effective. It has gone from a 27.6% CSW in 2021 to a 22.3% CSW in 2022. It has led to fewer groundballs and more flyballs, too. But he has shown glimmers of dominance with the pitch. In his outings this month against the Yankees and the Guardians, he was able to induce a much higher O-Sw% (60% and 56.3%) versus the 41.7% in his last (painful) start. The Cubs are seventh in strikeouts this year and 22nd in runs scored. Toronto can provide run support for White and hopefully give us a win.
Other options: Marco Gonzales (SEA) at DET: 26%
Thursday, Sept. 1
JP Sears (OAK) at WAS: 16%
Sears had been knocking on the door to The Show for about 100 innings before he was called up. In 53.1 IP in Triple-A in 2021, Sears managed a 2.87 ERA, a 10.97 K/9, and a miniscule 1.86 BB/9. In 2022, in 43 IP in Triple-A, he had a 1.67 ERA, an 11.51 K/9, and a 1.47 BB/9. Some might point to his current 2.28 ERA and say it’s unsustainable because of the 84.8% LOB% and the 3.80 FIP, but in the last 21.1 IP (against the Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, and Angels), he has maintained a 2.56 ERA. His slider seems to be getting more and more effective. Here is the CSW on that pitch over the last three games (47.1%, 45.8%, and 30.8%). In that last one, he was mixing in the changeup more to keep hitters off balance, and that pitch had a CSW of 38.5%. I’m willing to take a chance on him against Washington.
Other Option: Glenn Otto (TEX) at BOS: 8%
Friday, Sept. 2
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. OAK: 13%
I should probably insert a Seinfeld joke about Kramer here.
Baltimore is a sneaky team to use this week. You can see Spenser Watkins is an option as a two-start pitcher on Monday and Sunday. Austin Voth is an option on Saturday. Dean Kremer is an option today. Some of my own league-mates continue to think of Baltimore as a weak team, but the Orioles may actually make it to the playoffs this year. Their offense has scored as many runs as Cleveland on the season, and in the last two weeks, they’re scoring nearly as many runs as Boston and Toronto. That makes them a viable team to play for a win against favorable matchups. Kremer has a 3.45 ERA (3.64 FIP). He’s been relatively successful limiting the walks (2.14 BB/9), and in his last four outings, he has pitched to a 2.03 ERA (against Pittsburgh, Boston, Toronto, and Boston). I’m willing not to overthink this and pray for a good start.
Other option: Domingo German (NYY) at TB: 35%
Saturday, Sept. 3
Austin Voth (BAL) vs. OAK: 10%
I think the best play of the week is probably Stripling against the Pirates, but his ownership falls just outside my requirement. So I’m running another Orioles pitcher out there against Oakland. All my points about Baltimore still apply from Friday’s blurb, except Voth might be an even better pitcher. As I stated in last week’s article, Voth is commanding that cutter a lot more this year, with a Zone% of 27.5% in 2021 compared to 49.4% in 2022. I also want to remind everyone that Voth had a BB/9 of 4.40, but he’s got that down to 2.74 this year. Let’s give him a chance.
Other options: Ross Stripling (TOR) at PIT: 52%, Brayan Bello (BOS) vs. TEX: 4%, Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. COL: 27%, Jake Odorizzi (ATL) vs. MIA: 23%
Sunday, Sept. 4
Matt Manning (DET) vs. KC: 21%
You could finish the Baltimore set and play three pitchers in a row against Oakland, or you could return to Manning against Kansas City. If you need strikeouts, it might be better to play Manning. If you need a win, it might be better to play Watkins. Manning had a 61% CSW in his previous outing. His velocity was up. I may be a sucker starting a Detroit pitcher, but I dwell down here at the bottom of the ownership barrel, so I have no choice but to take chances. In H2H leagues where I have a limited number of pick-ups per week, it’s easier to play the same guy that I picked up on Tuesday. So let that be another factor here. If you went with Watkins, stick with your hand. If you held on to Manning, let’s get two starts for the price of one.
Other option: Spenser Watkins (BAL) vs. OAK: 8%
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