A fantasy football sleeper can cover many players, from completely off-the-grid guys going overly late in drafts to players with significant upside flying under the radar.
“Deep sleepers” are always fun to seek out, but often they’re such long shots that we can’t rely on too many of them. Therefore it is good to provide a broad spectrum when discussing sleeper targets.
The following list of players will guide you through the beginning of Round 8 (85th overall in a standard 12-team league) into the later double-digit rounds of your fantasy football drafts. The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Elijah Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cordarelle Patterson last season. These players found in the middle or late rounds are worth targeting/reaching for vs. ADP given their league-winning upside. Other players are screaming values.
My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform). It’s too soon for me to be attacked by “he’s not a sleeper in MY league” social media trolls. Also, all 32 teams will receive representation. Even the Falcons. It just won’t be Drake London — sorry, not sorry, DBro.
Here are a few of the sleepers I love to draft this season. You can find all of my favorite deep sleepers here.
For my favorite non-sleeper picks, be sure to check out the following articles:
Running Backs
I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I recently found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge. I wrote an entire article on the topic titled “2022 Fantasy Football: Identifying sleeper and late-round RBs to target” that mentions several of the following running backs as potential breakouts/sleepers based on their current ADPs.
The Buffalo back was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the RB3 in half-PPR scoring over the final six weeks of the season with 15.8 fantasy points per game despite only 14 receptions.
The underrated rusher ranked first in the NFL in routes run and third in the NFL in red-zone touches (29), more than double that of quarterback Josh Allen.
He gained the coaching staff’s trust by earning 54-plus snaps to close out the season, the highest snap number Singletary saw all season dating back to Week 1.
With a proven track record and two years of bell cow back usage in spurts, don’t be surprised when PFF’s fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards and seventh-ranked player in forced missed tackles in 2021 is the highly sought-after RB breakout who emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield.
And in that role last season over the final six weeks…
He was a top-3 fantasy RB.
Isaiah McKenzie also did not play…
Signifying his status as the WR3 ahead of Jamison Crowder…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 16, 2022
Rookie James Cook is talented, but it remains to be seen how much work the undersized back will see from the get-go. As noted by the Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia, “It would be illogical to think Cook is going to step into a gargantuan role as a rookie while Singletary remains on the roster. Still, Cook’s skill set can help them use the rookie more creatively than their other backs.”
Either way, you should always be trying to leave your drafts with at least one, if not both, Bills’ running backs because their upside in a high-powered offense is not being captured in their asking price.
Kareem Hunt has requested a trade his offseason. His contract expires in 2023, and the Browns have a stable of backs behind Chubb, including D’Ernest Johnson — who recently signed a one-year deal worth up to $2.433 million, including more than $900,000 in guaranteed money — Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton.
As a result, he is a prime trade target for any team that suffers an RB injury.
Last year Hunt was limited to just eight games due to a calf injury — but he maintained his effectiveness when healthy through the first six weeks of the season. As a result, he was a top-10 running back in PPR, averaging 17 fantasy points per game and just south of 15 touches per game.
His sixth-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.54), sixth-ranked yards per route run (1.81) and 26% target rate suggest he’s not slowing down entering the season at 27 years old.
A change of scenery would allow him recapture his rookie year accolades when he led the NFL in rushing yards. And if he stays in Cleveland, he’ll likely return at least his RB31 ADP.
If Hunt is ultimately moved, Johnson becomes the next man up for the Browns. He is certainly capable of the job after an extremely impressive 2021 campaign that saw him finish as PFF’s highest-graded rusher (90.6). In addition, Johnson delivered in his three starts, averaging a whopping 22.6 fantasy points per game.
Rhamondre Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board.
He was PFF’s third-highest graded running back (84.2). Additionally, Stevenson ranked 13th in rushing yards and yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Damien Harris.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
My favorite stat nugget.
Highest graded rookie RBs last 5 seasons per PFF
'21 Rhamondre Stevenson (81.1)
'20 Jonathan Taylor (80.7)
'19 Josh Jacobs (87.1)
'18 Nick Chubb (86.4)
'17 Alvin Kamara (90.4)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 25, 2022
Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9).
There’s a high ceiling for Stevenson, especially if you ask former Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich. The ESPN analyst said that Stevenson “…will be one of the better, if not one of the top three, running backs in the league based on what I saw with his strength, explosion and catch-and-run ability.”
With rumblings coming out of Foxborough that Stevenson is a dark horse to see an expanded role on third downs with James White officially retired, the second-year back needs to be a priority target as the draft slips into the double-digit rounds.
Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson’s role is increasing. https://t.co/dhqdXYnIUb
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 16, 2022
Rookie RB Rachaad White looks just like one of Leonard Fournette’s backups at the moment. But there’s an outcome where he delivers massive upside should Lenny go down with an injury or revert to Fat Lenny.
White has shades of David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell in his style of play, which didn’t go unnoticed by the new senior football consultant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians.
The Arizona State product ranked first in his class in receiving yards, No. 1 in yards per route run (2.24) and second in receptions (43). His 16% target share is bonkers for a running back at the college level, and it did wonders to generate his Day 2 draft capital.
Running backs drafted on Day 2 or earlier that have averaged at least 30 receiving yards/gm in their final college seasons:
Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne Jr. and Rachaad White ?
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 2, 2022
The same sentiment can be made for White’s 31% dominator rating and 3.33 offensive yards per snap over the past two seasons. Both would have ranked in the top three in last year’s class.
His yards per snap and PFF receiving grade also rank first among the class. White’s career receiving grade was superior to anybody from last year’s class as well.
After a strong showing at Senior Bowl week — PFF’s highest-graded rusher (74.9) — and at the NFL combine — 38-inch vertical jump (86th percentile), 125-inch broad jump (87th percentile) — White has league-winning potential if given the opportunity in the Buccaneers’ offense.
Tampa Bay
RB pecking order:
Gio Bernard
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Rachaad White
White came in last, but was targeted thrice on 7 routes.
The rookie still competing for No. 2 duties.
Although, Vaughn got work in the preseason last year…
White might need to just leap-frog Bernard
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 16, 2022
* Note: Herbert was carted off Saturday during the team’s preseason game, but he was back at practice on Sunday.
One of my favorite cheap back targets is Khalil Herbert. David Montgomery is in the final year of his rookie contract, and the new coaching regime will have no loyalty toward him. That could open the door for Herbert to earn a more significant role, which he more than deserves after how well he played in 2021.
Herbert was PFF’s fourth-highest-graded rusher (84.6) from Weeks 5-8 with Montgomery sidelined. The rookie rushed for at least 72 yards in all four games. Montgomery rushed for 72 yards four times all season.
David Montgomery seeing reps on special teams.
Maybe it means nothing.
Then again, can't forget Sony Michel bizarrely returning kicks last season before getting traded.
Just keep drafting Khalil Herbert.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 4, 2022
The Bears also own the easiest schedule for RBs, bolstering the case for Herbert as a solid bench stash. He also might be a better fit for the zone-running scheme that new OC Luke Getsy will be bringing in. PFF graded Herbert in the 96th percentile on zone rushes. Montgomery ranked in the 43rd percentile.
In the six games that Darrel Williams was the clear-cut starter in the Kansas City Chiefs’ backfield, he averaged 19 fantasy points per game (PPR) on 18.3 touches per game. He also averaged nearly 100 yards from scrimmage (96.3), scored 8 TDs and posted zero fumbles on 191 touches. Williams is the James Conner backup to target across all formats, as he’d likely inherit the RB1 role should the injury-prone starter go down. His body of work as a receiver and goal-line back presents him with immediate fantasy RB1 upside.
The former undrafted free agent (UDFA) led the Chiefs backfield in red-zone touches and averaged 4.5 receptions per game as the starter in 2021. His 47 catches overall ranked ninth.
Although Williams’ fantasy stock has fallen in recent months at the hands of Eno Benjamin generating the most buzz as the Cardinals No. 2 running back. But it seems more like Benjamin will fill the role vacated by Chase Edmonds, not necessarily be the player with the most to gain if Conner were to suffer an injury.
Right now more likely that you see Eno in the 2020 Chase Edmonds change of pace/3rd down back role when RB1 was Kenyon Drake. Feels like Williams is battling with Ward/Ingram but I feel like he’d be the clear leader for RB3 right now, maybe part of RBBC if Conner hurt.
— Blake Allen Murphy (@blakemurphy7) August 6, 2022
Because that’s ultimately the only reason you are drafting/stashing Williams anyway. He won’t have any stand alone value as the RB3.
The highest-paid running back on the Houston Texans roster is Rex Burkhead. $2.1 million of Burkhead’s $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. Meanwhile, Marlon Mack signed a one-year, $2 million deal, and rookie Dameon Pierce was drafted in the fourth round.
I envision Mack/Pierce duking out work on early downs while Burkhead slides in as the primary pass-catching back after he ranked sixth in route participation over the last four weeks of the 2021 season. The receiving role is the one to target in this backfield for a team that projects to be playing from behind frequently.
Not to mention that Burkhead came over from the New England Patriots last year alongside general manager Nick Caserio, so there’s a built-in connection from management to the field. So it’s no coincidence that Burkhead nearly doubled his career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and games started in his first year with Houston in 2021.
And over the past two seasons, Burkhead has flashed a high weekly fantasy ceiling. He’s crested 22-plus weekly fantasy points thrice since 2020. Mack has totaled 21.5 fantasy points over that span.
My one reservation with being too bullish on Pierce is that traditionally New England has been very stingy about featuring rookie running backs historically – especially ones drafted late. During Caserio’s tenure with the Patriots, Stevan Ridley’s 87 carries were the most for any non-first-round rookie running back.
It was until Caserio left New England for Houston that Rhamondre Stevenson broke that mark with 133 carries in 2021.
There’s clearly also been an affinity with veteran running backs that Texans can’t seem to quit. They force-fed David Johnson and Mark Ingram II, among other veterans, last season, despite having some younger players they could give reps to.
The fact Pierce never fully took over Florida’s backfield does raise red flags. His 12% career dominator rating is eerily similar to Trey Sermon’s (12%) from last season, and Sermon struggled to separate himself from the pack in his rookie campaign.
Even during his breakout senior season, the 5-foot-10 and 218-pound running back earned just a 22% dominator rating while sharing the backfield alongside Malik Davis.
However, I am willing to offer some benefit of the doubt after Pierce never topped 106 carries in college.
There may have been some underlying issue with former Gators head coach Dan Mullen that prevented Pierce from seeing a more featured role. Case in point: Pierce only had two games with double-digit carries in 2021, both of which came after Mullen was fired toward the end of the season.
I do think Pierce beats out Mack as the starter on early downs sooner rather than later after finishing as PFF’s highest-graded FBS running back in 2021. So he is worth a bench spot to see how things play out.
At worst, I’d say at least after their Week 6 bye week.
But a three-down work load is not realistic.
Team rested Rex Burkhead as their No. 1 pass-catching back…
Who they paid this offseason to an extension coming off career-highs. https://t.co/ThelYKG59M
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 16, 2022
He’s also a player that I will be keeping tabs on during the season’s entirety, because it’s very probable his role expands as the season goes on. The Texans have an early bye week — Week 6 — so a bump in usage could be in play from Week 7 onward.
Despite running with secondary units, Dameon Pierce is still the top back
Mack has looked good with agility in recent days, showing off quick, efficient jump cuts and jukes
Burkhead will be in the mix as he's dependable, physical, smart and does everything well
— Jayson Braddock (@JaysonBraddock) August 10, 2022
7th-round rookie running back Isiah Pacheco is also a late-round pick worth taking a shot on. The explosive 4.37 Rutgers running back is a sleeper candidate to eat into CEH’s workload on early downs and in the red zone.
Pacheco is generating a ton of hype out of training camp, so there’s also a chance that he takes on larger than expected role on the Chiefs offense. The two backs have swapped first-team reps on a near-daily basis.
His explosiveness – 98th percentile speed score per PlayerProfiler.com – just isn’t part of Edwards-Helaire’s game. Over the past two seasons, CEH has ranked 41st (21%) and 59th (9%) in breakaway run rate.
Although, Pacheco’s advanced metrics from his days at Rutgers — last in missed tackles forced per touch, yards per attempt and yards after contact per attempt — definitely raise concerns of how “good” he will look when the real games actually start. Also averaged just a meager 2.8 receiving yards per game his final year.
His best stat is actually in pass-blocking, finishing first in pass blocking points added – as provided by Sports Info Solutions – on the second-most pass pro snaps per game.
But the bigger news was Isiah Pacheco operating as the RB2 behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Ronald Jones came in after, but he sure looks to be on the roster bubble.
Pacheco worthy of a late-round pick (took him Rd 12 in recent mock)
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 16, 2022
Derrick Gore still has potential as the team’s goal-line back. He flashed red-zone usage last season in Week 8 with six red-zone touches. Many will point to Gore’s undrafted status as a reason to believe he won’t be a factor in 2022. But the team’s belief in fellow UDFA Williams suggests that the team won’t shy away from Gore if he is indeed the best option for the job.
He was superior to Edwards-Helaire and Jones last season in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt.
Wide Receivers
The Giants’ new coaching staff views Kadarius Toney as an integral piece heading into Year 2. Even after they were rumored to trade the polarizing wide receiver before the NFL Draft.
And the selection of Wan’Dale Robinson early in Round 2 wasn’t exactly the vote of confidence that he would see an ultra-expanded role in Year 2.
However, what is clear with Toney is his talent. He flashed future target-magnet potential after posting 2.14 yards per route run (11th) and commanding a 25% target rate per route run in 2021 — tied for 7th best in the NFL in 2021.
His 92nd percentile PFF receiving grade versus single coverage suggests that Toney can win wherever he lines up.
The volume opportunity combined with is talent gives him legitimate top-15 fantasy WR upside at a fraction of the cost.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG
Never been more convinced about a more obvious breakout…
As a rookie, Toney posted…
2.14 yards per route run (11th)
25% target rate per route run (7th)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 12, 2022
The Packers have the fourth-most vacated target space from last season, creating an opportunity for veteran Allen Lazard to step up and post career-high numbers.
Aaron Rodgers trusts Lazard after they have spent the last four seasons together, and their chemistry was on full display over the final five weeks of the 2021 regular season.
Allen Lazard stock ⬆️⬆️⬆️ pic.twitter.com/Shug3gFfjZ
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) June 8, 2022
Lazard was the WR8 in PPR scoring on the back of 21 receptions for 290 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Someone on Green Bay will have to replace Davante Adams‘ elite red-zone production, and Lazard looks to fit the mold at 6-foot-5.
The former Iowa State product has also stepped up in Adams’ absence before, most notably back in 2020 against the New Orleans Saints. With Adams sidelined, Lazard caught six of eight targets for 146 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Josh Palmer averaged over seven targets per game as a rookie and scored a touchdown in his three games with a 60% snap share. He was also extremely efficient in the end zone, catching three of his five total end-zone targets for TDs.
With a downfield skill set that perfectly aligns with his big-armed quarterback, Palmer is one of my favorite late-round WRs to target. In addition, he’s got untapped potential should an injury occur to either Mike Williams or Keenan Allen, as he displayed last season.
His separation skills — 71st percentile, equal to Keenan Allen, and 92nd percentile vs. single coverage — further showcase his versatility.
Josh Palmer averaged 7+ tgts/gm and scored a TD in his 3 gms with a 60% snap share. Efficient in the end zone, catching 3 of his 5 total EZ targets for TDs.
With a downfield skill set that aligns with his QB, Palmer is one of my favorite late-round WRspic.twitter.com/LTltVUuHbG— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 6, 2022
The Dallas Cowboys needed a No. 3 receiver, and Jalen Tolbert fits the bill to a tee. The South Alabama product was a mega-producer in the small school college ranks.
The 6-foot-1 and 194-pound deep-ball specialist earned a career 31% dominator rating — top-three in the class — factoring in a redshirt freshman season. Tolbert posted dominator ratings of 35%, 42% and 42% from his sophomore year onward. He torched defenses downfield as the nation’s leader in targets (99), catches (38) and receiving yards (1,402) on targets of 20-plus air yards.
Tolbert also boasts a 19-year-old breakout age.
James Washington is already out with an injury, thrusting Tolbert into a role where he could offer immediate value with Michael Gallup also unlikely to be ready for Week 1 coming off a torn ACL.
He has the desired big-play ability that should gel well with quarterback Dak Prescott.
Fantasy managers are still trying to figure out what went wrong with Brandon Aiyuk during the first half of last season. He was hyped up after an impressive rookie campaign but suffered a hamstring injury during training camp, making him unreliable in the starting offense. Through Weeks 1-7, Aiyuk had just one weekly finish inside the top-25. He also averaged an abysmal 0.63 yards per route run — a mark that ranked 98th out of 102 qualifying WRs. Woof.
But give credit to Aiyuk for turning his season around during the second half. His yards per route run increased substantially (2.16, 13th), and he averaged 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game as the WR24. The former first-round pick also ranked sixth in yards after the catch per reception (6.9).
If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could be a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that Deebo Samuel was viewed in 2021. His overall disappointing sophomore campaign should not overshadow his electric rookie season.
There’s a lot of general ambiguity about how the San Francisco 49ers’ offense will look with Trey Lance under center, but we know the upside is sky-high from a fantasy perspective. There’s no denying Aiyuk’s talent/production when given the opportunity, and there’s a chance he could form a special downfield connection with Lance’s rocket arm.
49ers’ wide receiver coach Leonard Hankerson also believes that Year 3 is the perfect time to expect Aiyuk’s impending breakout.
Take the chance on a suppressed Aiyuk, who won’t cost nearly the arm and leg that Deebo Samuel will cost to draft. Their target rate per route run was nearly identical (21%) during the second half of the season.
Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore is undervalued over Round 1 rookie WRs because he was the 13th wide receiver selected in the draft as a second-round pick. But Moore has a chance to hit the ground running in the post-Tyreek Hill era, competing for targets with fellow newcomers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His impressive yards after catch (YAC) ability — tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles in 2021- and ability to play both inside/outside helps him stand out from the other Kansas City Chiefs WRs.
During Moore’s final college season, he finished as PFF’s third-highest graded wide receiver in the FBS (91.6) with a 41% dominator rating to boot. Additionally, his 3.40 yards per route run ranked in the 99th percentile among 2022 draft-eligible wide receivers over the past three seasons.
Rookie WRs are still being vastly undervalued in early best ball drafts…
including my favorite rookie WR sleeper…
thread. pic.twitter.com/he8X7fkAOb
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 17, 2022
With Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, Moore could smash his current ADP into the stratosphere. It’s not that outlandish to think a second-rounder can make an immediate impact considering six of the 12 highest-scoring Round 1 & 2 rookie WRs selected since 2017 were second-rounders.
2021 was a typical season for DeVante Parker. The former first-round pick had at least seven targets in seven of his nine game played, scoring double-digit fantasy points in more than half of them. He averaged 12.9 expected fantasy points per game through 17 weeks (28th).
His acquisition by the Patriots helps shore up the need for a big-bodied wide receiver on the perimeter that can make plays downfield. But the extent of how high a target share Parker will command remains to be seen. If anything, he probably has the most touchdown upside of the New England Patriots WRs.
And that means Parker will be the most productive fantasy wide receiver on the team…in the games he plays in 2022.
Just don’t be overly bullish on him being available all season-long, as his injury history proceeds him. His 1.48 yards per route run was also his worst mark since 2018 as was his 55% catch rate.
K.J. Hamler‘s a late-round Broncos WRs I can’t help but snag at the ends of fantasy drafts. He’s looks like he is on track to be healthy for Week 1, and he should benefit from targets in the aftermath of the Tim Patrick injury.
Russell Wilson has gone as far as coining Hamler as a “Young Star,” and admittedly, it’s hard not to get excited about the Broncos’ speed demon. He’s really the only pure speed wideout on the Denver depth chart, so he should see unique touches in the offense to take advantage of his vertical ability.
Injuries have obviously derailed him, but there’s no ignoring his enticing splash-play potential from the slot.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was not the highest of wide receiver Jahan Dotson during the pre-draft process, but the guy earned mid-round one draft capital and a landing spot that I think is being undervalued by the consensus.
Curtis Samuel has struggled to stay healthy and 2021 third-rounder Dyami Brown failed to fire as a rookie creating an opportunity in the Washington new-look offense alongside No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin.
Dotson’s biggest strengths to me are his reliability and the floor that he can offer the Commanders, which will translate into target volume.
That’s what he did during his final season at Penn State, posting an absurd 43% dominator rating while racking up the 8th-most receptions in his draft class.
Dotson’s sure hands – he had a 94th percentile career drop rate of two percent – will help him vacuum up targets from Carson Wentz and make him the favorite to be the right behind McLaurin in the target pecking order.
Jahan Dotson got all the snaps/routes with Carson Wentz.
Clear WR2 in the offense
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 16, 2022
However, be willing to pivot off Dotson if Samuel is fully healthy. The versatile wideout is just one year removed from a top-25 fantasy finish and 23rd-ranked 1.94 yards per route run.
The Washington slot receiver has found success in Scott Turner’s offense with the Panthers and is basically free in ADP; despite not finishing worse than WR42 in any season he has played at least 13 games.
Rondale Moore is entering his second season with a straightforward path for an expanded role in the Cardinals’ offense. He flashed his potential early on for Arizona in 2021, with 182 receiving yards in his first two NFL games. But Kliff Kingsbury never opted to go back to Moore with the likes of AJ Green and Christian Kirk playing solid roles.
We should see Moore — and his dead-last 1.3 aDOT — experience significant growth in Year 2, especially with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the season.
"Rondale Moore is expected to assume the Christian Kirk role in the Cardinals' offense, working from the inside out … The Cardinals envision Moore, an explosive second-round pick, handling those duties and more, considering his ability to take handoffs." https://t.co/iJZH84EPWz
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 11, 2022
During his rookie season, Moore ran 76% of his routes from the slot and finished fourth in YAC/reception (7.8). He also posted a 24% target rate per route run, which ranked 16th in the NFL – tied with fellow rookie Elijah Moore.
The Giants’ second-round selection in this year’s draft has been a star at training camp, with the offensive coaching staff taking full advantage of everything the former college standout has to offer. He also has locked-up a full-time role in the starting offense as of Preseason Game No. 1 — a feat not accomplished by many other rookie WRs drafted before him.
Recall that Robinson spent a ton of snaps in the Nebraska backfield before transferring to Kentucky. In his first season playing wide receiver, Robinson finished second in the FBS in yards per route run (3.56). The Kentucky product also owns PFF’s No. 1 career receiving grade (93.4) in the 2022 draft class.
I’d be bullish on the undersized wideout because Daboll has had past success in the past with similar-sized players like Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie in Buffalo. New York also doesn’t seem overly concerned about listing him at 5-foot-11 after he measured at 5-foot-8 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Go figure.
If Isaiah McKenzie can just do what Cole Beasley did last season — 82 receptions for 693 yards, WR40 in PPR, WR48 in HPPR — he will vastly out-produce his ADP outside the top-65.
Playing in a super pass-heavy offense will allow McKenzie the opportunity to soak up targets , as he has done when in previous stints.
McKenzie flashed big-time upside in his solo spot start for Buffalo in Week 16 versus the Patriots. He caught 11 of 12 targets for 125 receiving yards and one touchdown. It also wasn’t the first time McKenzie had stepped up in Beasley’s absence.
In Week 17 of the 2020 season, he put up an equally impressive outing with six catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns.
These late-season surges for McKenzie shouldn’t be overlooked, especially considering veteran Jamison Crowder has played 16 games once in the last four seasons.
Now it is possible Crowder wins the slot job over McKenzie, but that’s hardly been the rhetoric out of Bills training camp. It’s McKenzie’s job by all accounts.
But Crowder isn’t a horrible consolation. Just last year, the 29-year-old commanded at least five targets in every single game he played without leaving due to injury. In those ten healthy games, the slot receiver averaged nearly five receptions and seven targets per game.
I’m disappointed to report that I acquired zero of Titans wide receiver Kyle Philips in my rookie dynasty drafts. First, he was taken one spot before me by FantasyPros’ own Pat Fitzmaurice after I waxed poetic about him on Pat’s Fitz on Fantasy podcast. Then he got swept up right before my pick in another dynasty rookie draft.
I believe he has some sneaky Hunter Renfrow-like slot skill that most will overlook, but NFL teams like the Titans will love.
Philips commanded a 30% target share in 2021 at UCLA and could potentially become a top underneath option for Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee.
And all the talk out of Titans training camp is that the Philips has already locked up the starting role from the slot.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields has plummeted to QB17 in ADP. Everyone is afraid of the situation in Chicago. But don’t forget that a washed-up Cam Newton went from irrelevant to a top-12 ranked QB in one week last year because of rushing production.
Fields finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in his last four full games in 2021, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. Good for QB3, QB9, QB8, and QB10 finishes with an overall 44% QB1 hit rate considering his nine full games played. Same as Derek Carr. The Bears QB’s ADP is QB17.
He also averaged 56 rushing yards per game over his last six. All in all, Fields averaged 35 rushing yards per game during his rookie season. The last three rookie QBs to do so? Newton, Josh Allen and Robert Griffin. They all finished as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in their second seasons, with the two former QBs finishing top six.
It won’t take long for the narrative to spin on the talented Fields after he starts the season hot out of the gates. Five of the Bears’ first six matchups are against secondaries that are the weak part of their respective defense, lost talent in free agency, and/or are unproven.
In Week 1, Fields takes on the 49ers. He rushed for over 100 yards against them last season.
Per the Athletic’s Dan Duggan, the Giants want to unleash quarterback Daniel Jones. It’s music to the ears of fantasy drafters looking for a late-round quarterback with upside because Jones has the skill set to be that player in a better offensive environment.
Before a Week 5 concussion, Jones was the QB8 overall in points per game (23.3). In addition, the Giants’ quarterback ranked third in rushing yards per game (47/game) and second in PFF passing grade.
This offseason, New York drafted the best offensive tackle in the draft with the selection of Evan Neal at No. 7 overall. It provides Jones the protection he desperately needs as he looks to prove to the New York organization that he is worthy of being the long-term answer at quarterback.
With the Giants upgrading their entire offensive line through free agency and the draft, Jones is back on the late-round status in 1QB leagues and fantasy QB2 radar in Superflex formats. Recall that he played behind PFF’s third-worst graded offensive line last season.
He will also benefit greatly from the No.1-easiest strength of schedule for QBs.
The additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are massive benefits for quarterback Jameis Winston, who is starting to emerge from this offseason as an intriguing late-round quarterback fantasy option.
Winston played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game — good for QB14 on the year. The Saints quarterback also finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career.
Winston led all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64). He also ranked fourth in aDOT, which lends itself to spiked fantasy weeks.
That’s why Jameis Winston is one of my favorite QB sleeper candidates.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 3, 2022
Joe Burrow‘s massive second-year jump is encouraging for this year’s second-year QBs like Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville’s quarterback finished with the same expected fantasy points per game average as Burrow in 2021 (17.3) but underwhelmed tremendously in a poor situation. His -72.3 fantasy points versus expectation were the most of any QB in 2021.
Lawrence posted a season-high 85.1 PFF passing grade in the season finale, offering some hope that he can turn things around in 2022 with a new coaching staff, upgraded offensive personnel in place and the second-easiest strength of schedule for QBs.
There’s a strong chance that Jacksonville dials up the passing attempts with Doug Pederson calling the shots on offense. During his five-year tenure in Philadelphia, only once did the offense not finish top 10 in pass attempts.
The Stanford product turned it on over the final five weeks of the 2021 season, finishing with a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging a respectable 17.4 fantasy points per game.
His final passer rating from a clean pocket finished first among all rookie QBs. Mills also posted just as many 300-yard passing games (four) as Aaron Rodgers and all the other rookie QBs combined.
And for his final act, Mills fueled a 7-113-2 stat line for a 36-year-old Danny Amendola in Week 18 of the 2021 season.
Mills still has so much room for growth, considering he’s only started 22 games combined at the college and professional levels. For perspective, Pittsburgh Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett has started 49 games over five years at the college level.
And after receiving the nod from the new coaching staff, Mills is projected to be the Houston Texans’ starter for the 2022 season. The team did not draft a quarterback, which greenlights Mills as the presumable starter. I say “presumably” because the Texans have been rumored to be in the market for Jimmy Garoppolo potentially, per Jeff Howe of the Athletic.
Texans’ GM has obvious ties to Garoppolo from his tenure in New England, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see a Jimmy G reunion in Houston.
But for now, Mills looks like QB1. And it’s hard not to view him as a screaming value based on how he finished last season and how his supporting cast has dramatically improved since a year ago.
The Texans invested in OL (Kenyon Green) in the NFL Draft. And he still has Brandin Cooks and second-year players Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan, who are eager to take another step forward.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz’s return to form is a reminder there’s value to be had in drafting proven fantasy commodities after the drafting community has written them off. It’s a major takeaway I’ve had while constructing my 2022 rankings for all the positions: Finishing top 12 or even top five at each respective position should be held higher when it comes to ranking players going forward. They’ve done it before.
Following that precise approach would have led you to be overweight on Ertz in 2021, as the veteran was at the forefront of trade discussions all summer. He didn’t get moved until Week 7 to the Arizona Cardinals, but his production took off after the trade.
The former Eagle averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (eighth). He also averaged just under five receptions per game and a team-high 20% target share while running a route on 84% of dropbacks.
Ertz undoubtedly got a major receiving boost without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, but that will be the case during the first six games with the Cardinals’ No. 1 wide receiver serving a suspension. Ertz was TE4 over that stretch, with Hopkins sidelined, averaging seven receptions per game (24% target share).
His trust earned from the coaches and Kyler Murray to be a target hog in the Cardinals’ offense from the get-go bodes well for him to be a back-end fantasy TE1 with him returning to Arizona, even with the addition of rookie second-round tight end Trey McBride.
The starting tight end position is valuable for Arizona in fantasy, evidenced by not only Ertz’s performance but also Maxx Williams’. Before the Ertz trade went down, Williams posted two top-six TE finishes in just five games played.
Ertz is a screaming value coming off the board at outside the top-100 picks as the TE10, especially considering how impactful he will be to open the season.
It’s bizarre to be so confident projecting a tight end breakout, but that’s how strongly I feel about Chicago Bears’ tight end, Cole Kmet.
Because no tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons, but Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production — no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.
That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this past year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility — something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.
An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. In addition, he has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.
Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that’s exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of ADP at TE10.
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%) with Darren Waller and George Kittle. Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.
It bodes well for Albert O that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. So although there are concerns about Denver’s third-round rookie draft pick Greg Dulcich eating into Okwuegbunam’s production, that rhetoric is likely being overblown.
Denver was already projected to feature 12 personnel — two TE sets — based on new head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s history. They ranked second in that particular deployment in 2021 while Hackett coached with the Green Bay Packers.
Newly-paid tight end David Njoku — four-year extension worth $56.75m — has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 after an encouraging 2021. He set career-highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, eighth), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends who commanded at least 50 targets in 2021.
In addition, the Browns cut Austin Hooper, opening up opportunities for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don’t be too quick to forget that Njoku already has a top-10 TE finish on his career resume.
I also don’t expect Jacoby Brissett under center to hold back Njoku.
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson dropped back 5 times to pass…
David Njoku ran a route on all dropbacks.
He’s looking at a full-time role in 2022.
After finishing 25th in routes run in 2021.
Buy the breakout.https://t.co/Zlzu56MaKQ
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 16, 2022
Gerald Everett is easily one of my favorite late-round tight ends, so I am glad the consensus is finally starting to catch on. He was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he could be the featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch — sixth-most among tight ends.
Jared Cook’s top-10 aDOT last year suggests that Everett will be seeing more passes downfield.
Everett’s 5.5 aDOT ranked sixth-lowest last season.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 18, 2022
His peripheral metrics in Seattle’s offense — 12% target share, 63% route participation, and 17% target rate per route run — were nearly identical to Jared Cook in the Chargers’ offense last season.
Cook finished as TE16 overall, which seems like Everett’s fantasy floor heading into 2022. However, the tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook’s average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1).
LA ranked third in that category last season (39.6). They also ranked ninth in TE targets overall.
Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season’s star at the position after finishing No. 1 overall in separation rate (98th percentile) in 2021. And he’s still super cheap at TE22.
Bengals’ tight end Hayden Hurst is hardly a world-beater, but it’s hard not to view him as a winner joining the Bengals this offseason. The former Falcon is in sole possession of C.J. Uzomah‘s vacated role from last season offers some fantasy appeal.
Uzomah’s 78% route participation ranked fourth-highest among tight ends in 2021
Every-down tight ends on the field who are often in high-scoring environments will stumble into fantasy scoring. It’s a highly coveted role primed to ooze fantasy points. However, being on the field doesn’t always translate to the requisite fantasy production, especially in offenses loaded with other weapons. Uzomah’s 13% target rate per route run ranked last among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2021. Hurst’s 15% target rate wasn’t much better.
It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that Hurst is the clear-cut late-round tight end to target in 2022, but he is well worth targeting late in drafts. Hurst is just one year removed from a TE9 overall finish in 2020.
Even as a rookie, Bellinger looks like the favorite to be the starting tight end in New York and be an every-down player in the Dawson Knox “role” in Brian Daboll’s offense.
Big Blue’s starting tight end sports the requisite athletic profile — 94th percentile broad jump, 83rd percentile 40-time — to create yards after the catch at the NFL level. In this year’s tight end class, the San Diego State tight end finished first in YAC/reception (8.8).
77% of his receiving yards came after the catch.
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