Players taken in the early and middle rounds are generally expected to have a nice combination of talent and opportunity. But every year there are some athletes that are seemingly misread by the public, especially at the start of the preseason before draft prices correct themselves. Someone’s average draft position (ADP) can be inflated for a whole host of reasons. Anyone that had a highly-efficient 2021 campaign might struggle to repeat that this year. Others may have gone to worse offenses or had big downgrades to their current situations. Disappointing players selected in the first several rounds can heavily hamper your title chances. That’s why our featured pundits feel the need to highlight nine names they believe are better left on the board at their current ADP.
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Q1. What RB in our top 30 in half-PPR RB ADP is most likely to produce far below expectations?
Damien Harris (NE): Consensus ADP – RB26 | 54th Overall
“Damien Harris is currently the RB26 and whilst he was very impressive last year, he was reliant on his 15 touchdowns to stay fantasy viable. This year Rhamondre Stevenson looks set to eat into the running workload and may even pass Harris in ADP soon. Harris is a good player, but relying on a player who relies on touchdowns is a situation I don’t want for my rosters. ”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
“Damien Harris’ fantasy production last season was largely because of huge touchdown numbers that are sure to regress. There’s also serious competition for touches from Rhamondre Stevenson. The duo split touches down the stretch and rumblings out of New England are that Stevenson is impressing as a pass-catcher. Give me the second-year back over Harris. ”
– Joe Serpico (Pressbox)
Antonio Gibson (WAS): Consensus ADP – RB19 | 34th Overall
“Asking for RB19 production as a Round 3 pick is a lot to ask of Antonio Gibson. AG averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game in half-point scoring (RB9) in the five games that J.D. McKissic missed last season. In the other 11 games, the Memphis product owned just an 8% target share and ran a route on 36% of the team’s dropbacks to go along with 12.1 points per game (RB23). With third-round rookie running back Brian Robinson added into the mix as a likely candidate to earn touches on early downs and at the goal line, the volume distribution in the Washington backfield is not favoring Gibson’s fantasy upside. Third-round running backs have earned 125 touches on average since 2013, making it unlikely AG is able to repeat his fourth-ranked 300-touch workload from a season ago. Gibson’s current ADP ranking at RB19 is nearly identical to his fantasy points per game finish in half-point scoring from 2021 (RB18).”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Cam Akers (LAR): Consensus ADP – RB18 | 33rd Overall
“Cam Akers entered college as a five-star recruit, and he was productive on a bad team at Florida State (1,369 yards, 18 touchdowns in 11 games of final college season). He entered the league as a 21-year-old second-round with a three-down skill set, and in the final six games of his first season he flashed with 708 yards on 146 combined carries and targets — but none of that matters now, because he suffered a torn Achilles before the 2022 season, and even though he returned to action last year in time for the playoffs he looked horrible on the field, ranking dead last among all running backs with -1.58 rushing yards over expected (per Tej Seth). The Achilles tear has typically been a career-shattering injury for running backs, and Rams HC Sean McVay has recently suggested that he plans to use Akers and backup Darrell Henderson in a committee, which makes Akers way too risky at his ADP.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
Josh Jacobs (LV): Consensus ADP – RB20 | 42nd Overall
“Well, Josh McDaniels might have just told us all we needed to know about Josh Jacobs. With starters like Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and company sitting out, Jacobs was running the rock. Jacobs finished with seven touches and 44 total yards in a game we all expected him to sit out. The Raiders already fired the signal flare into the sky by declining his fifth-year option, but this might be further proof the team views him and Zamir White on the same plane. Coupling Jacobs’ 2021 struggles to rank 36th in breakaway run rate and 37th in yards per touch and this preseason insanity; there’s no way he should be viewed as a top 24 running option in fantasy. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Q2. What WR in our top 40 in half-PPR WR ADP is most likely to produce far below expectations?
Jaylen Waddle (MIA): Consensus ADP – WR14 | 39th Overall
“Jaylen Waddle set an NFL record last year for a rookie with 104 receptions — but it wasn’t a great season if we’re being honest. Waddle’s bottom-line production (1,015 yards receiving) pales in comparison to what we’ve seen out of other rookies recently on far less volume (140 targets): Ja’Marr Chase (1,455, 128 targets), Justin Jefferson (1,400, 125), Michael Thomas (1,137, 121), Odell Beckham (1,305, 130). Last year, Waddle was basically Amon-Ra St. Brown (912 yards, 90 receptions) but with 21 more targets — and this year he could earn fewer opportunities, given that the team acquired No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill and the new coaching staff is likely to rely on the running game (based on HC Mike McDaniel’s history with Kyle Shanahan). I don’t see a strong reason to invest in the No. 2 receiver in an offense that might want to limit the number of times QB Tua Tagovailoa throws the ball.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI): Consensus ADP – WR35 | 86th Overall
“Ranking DeAndre Hopkins as a top 40 wide receiver in fantasy football is borderline lunacy. Even if you can somehow look past this type of draft equity tied into a player that we all know will miss nearly half of the fantasy regular season, there’s still the elephant in the room of his meh 2021 production. Hopkins dipped in nearly every efficiency metric I care about last season. He finished 48th in target per route run rate, 29th in yards per route run, and outside the top 24 in route win rate (per Playerproifiler.com). I’ll happily avoid Hopkins in my drafts. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
DK Metcalf (SEA): Consensus ADP – WR17 | 47th Overall
“Nobody is making you draft parts of the Seattle Seahawks offense. Especially someone like DK Metcalf, who has bust written all over him as a Round 4 pick. Metcalf thrives off touchdown production — 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons — but I anticipate scoring to be in short supply for this 2022 Seahawks offense. News flash people…if you want to draft part of Seattle’s passing attack, just take Tyler Lockett outside the top-30 WR picks. He and Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares and points per game over the last two seasons. Metcalf’s ADP is WR17. Lockett’s is WR38. Easy game”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Marquise Brown (ARI): Consensus ADP – WR20 | 58th Overall
“Marquise Brown is the WR20 currently and after outperforming expectations in Baltimore last year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him underperform in 2022. Brown’s depth of targets might increase with Kyler Murray as his quarterback, but it’s unlikely he’ll see 146 targets again and for the first six games whilst Deandre Hopkins is suspended Brown will garner an awful lot of defensive attention. It’s possible Brown’s ADP is an over correction. ”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
Tyler Lockett (SEA): Consensus ADP – WR38 | 95th Overall
“Tyler Lockett: The quarterback situation might be the worst in the NFL with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock running the offense, and D.K Metcalf is still the top receiving option on the roster. Sure, Lockett had five games in which he scored 20-plus fantasy points, but also had six games with single-digit scoring, including a five-week stretch in which he averaged 4.9 half-PPR points. I want nothing to do with that inconsistency. ”
– Joe Serpico (Pressbox)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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