Let’s take a look at players on Derek Brown’s 2022 Do Not Draft List.
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Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
5 Players You Should Avoid Drafting
David Montgomery finished as the RB12 and RB6 in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons, surpassing expectations. The Bears’ receiving weapons are depleted outside of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, so there’s an easy pathway for plenty of check downs weekly. With Fields under center, he saw 4.75 targets per game, which would be a new career-high if that repeats this upcoming season. The problem for Montgomery is the new regime has no previous ties to him. He’s seen an 80-90% opportunity share over the last two seasons, which has helped fuel his fantasy stock. Still, new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy comes from a system in Green Bay that hasn’t pushed Aaron Jones over the 60% opportunity share mark since 2020. It’s conceivable Montgomery will lose snaps on early downs to Khalil Herbert or Darrynton Evans and routes to Trestan Ebner. If that comes to fruition, he’s better viewed as a high-end RB3 with low-end RB2 upside.
I’m sorry but…
Josh Jacobs won’t have the routes & target share you desire this szn.
Kenyan Drake & Ameer Abdullah trump him in the receiving game easily. pic.twitter.com/PPXGlmZ8gc
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 31, 2022
Josh Jacobs is coming off a season where he gobbled up volume that powered him to an RB13 fantasy points per game finish. Unfortunately, Jacobs did very little with the touches he amassed last season. He was ninth in opportunity share and weighted opportunity while ranking 11th in carries and ninth in targets among running backs. In addition, Jacobs was wretchedly inefficient, ranking 40th in fantasy points per opportunity, 36th in breakaway run rate and 34th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF).
Jacobs could lose work on the ground to Kenyan Drake and Zamir White this season if he continues his three yards and cloud of dust ways. This pass game usage is assuredly going down with Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah on the roster. Last year Bolden ranked fourth in yards per route run, and Abdullah was 15th (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). Unless Jacobs falls past RB24 (he won’t), I’m avoiding him this year.
The looming suspension for Deshaun Watson still hangs over the Browns’ 2022 season outlook, and the downgrade to Jacoby Brissett is notable, but Amari Cooper is still ranked as the WR22. I keep trying to make sense of this ranking, but it’s tough. Cooper couldn’t even reach that realm last year with better quarterback play from Dak Prescott, as he finished as the WR25. I get that the consensus views him as the only show in town, but my love for David Njoku is well documented, so I won’t let that slight stand. Cooper is a player in decline, as he’s seen his yards per route run dip in each of the past three seasons. I can’t consider Cooper anything more than a volume-based mid-WR3.
JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s current ranking is due to the “Patrick Mahomes effect.” This is spicy for a player who has seen his yards per route run decrease in each of the last four seasons, and his YAC per reception also fall in every season of his career (per PFF). Unfortunately, TikTok legend status won’t fill up the stat sheet or earn him more targets. Bypass Smith-Schuster and target Skyy Moore (WR57) later in drafts.
At age 28, it’s fair to wonder if Kenny Golladay has hit the age apex wall. Last year Golladay saw his yards per route run dip to 1.36 as he finished 74th in route win rate. Improved play calling should help Golladay, but Brian Daboll can’t run Golladay’s routes for him. Golladay is cooked if his declining efficiency continues and his catchable target rate (87th) doesn’t improve from Daniel Jones.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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