Getting the most value for each pick should be your goal every time you’re up to make a selection. Knowing who to draft is great, but knowing when to take your guys is both an art and a science. Take your man too early and you risk grabbing him at his ceiling and passing on other players who have more upside baked into their cost. Wait on your athlete too long and someone else might grab him.
Taking a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you seek might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s range of outcomes will allow you to judge whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued or overvalued relative to their ADP. Which players do our featured analysts believe are going too late? Read on to see some of their favorite undervalued draft targets.
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Q1. Who is the best value pick at RB based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?
Kareem Hunt (CLE): Consensus ADP – RB29 | 78th Overall
“Kareem Hunt has never finished lower than RB30 in half-PPR fantasy points per game since arriving in Cleveland in 2019, per FantasyData. Sitting at RB29 in ADP, Hunt is a phenomenal pick no matter what comes of his rumored trade request. We have seen him in his career prove it as the dominant bell cow (half-PPR RB4 overall in 2017 with the Kansas City Chiefs) and as the 1B to teammate Nick Chubb. Take advantage of the ambiguity of his situation; it’s a true win-win whether he stays the 1B or goes elsewhere and becomes a backfield leader.”
– Herms (The Lateral)
Breece Hall (NYJ): Consensus ADP – RB20 | 43rd Overall
“An RB prospect as good as Breece Hall shouldn’t be going this late in drafts. Hall has good size (5-11, 217), he had a terrific three-year college stint at Iowa State (3,941 rushing yards. 56 TDs), he put on a show at the combine with his freaky speed and athleticism, and he’s a capable pass catcher. Hall is at least as good a prospect as Najee Harris was, and Harris was immensely impactful last season. It’s very likely that at this time next year, Hall will be a consensus first-round fantasy pick and we’ll be trying to remember why his ADP was so low in 2021.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Elijah Mitchell (SF): Consensus ADP – RB23 | 46th Overall
“Elijah Mitchell averaged 20.6 touches, and 100 total yards per game as a rookie. He’s currently being drafted as RB23 (46th overall). I’d say that’s pretty good value. Sure, the 49ers backfield can be sketchy for fantasy, but the potential volume/upside Mitchell presents in the fifth round is too good to pass on. ”
– Tim Brosnan (Tim’s Fantasy Tips)
J.K. Dobbins (BAL): Consensus ADP – RB24 | 52nd Overall
“J.K. Dobbins. Finally off the PUP list after begging to be removed from it for weeks, Dobbins’ massive potential is not yet reflected in his ADP. Dobbins may not be a big factor in the passing game, but he is the clear lead back on a potent offense that could run the ball more than any other team in the league. He should also get plenty of red zone carries and brings huge TD potential to the table. Remember, before last summer’s ACL tear, Dobbins averaged a whopping 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
Q2. Who is the best value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?
Kirk Cousins (MIN): Consensus ADP – QB15 | 113th Overall
“The answer is always Kirk Cousins. Per FantasyData, the last time Cousins finished lower than QB15 overall was 2014; Cousins didn’t become a starter until 2015. He may not offer much rushing upside, but you can’t go wrong with the player who is fourth in passing touchdowns (205), 13th in passing yards per game (266.3), and fifth in completion percentage (67.7%) since 2015, per Stathead. Between his career-long consistency and reuniting with his former Washington QB coach Kevin O’Connell, the new Minnesota Vikings head coach, Cousins is primed for another reliable fantasy season with a familiar coach calling the shots.”
– Herms (The Lateral)
Jameis Winston (NO): Consensus ADP – QB23 | 172nd Overall
“Jameis Winston may not be an ideal starter in single-QB formats, but the fact he’s barely going inside the top 24 QBs is a crime. Jameis finished as the QB14 in points per game last season even though he was asked to run a very conservative offense. The Saints offense will reportedly be much more pass-happy this year, and they have the weapons to do it with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. If Winston can pair the big throws he made in his Tampa days with the sound decision-making of last year, a big fantasy season could be in store.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)
Aaron Rodgers (GB): Consensus ADP – QB12 | 93rd Overall
“Aaron Rodgers has finished as QB2 (or better) in fantasy in seven of his 12 full seasons. The back-to-back MVP’s fantasy floor is QB9, but somehow he is ranked as QB12 (93rd overall). I get that he has no Davante Adams, but trust me, he’ll find a way to make it work. Per NBC’s Matthew Berry: During the Matt LaFleur era, Rodgers averages 24.1 PPG when playing without Adams. ”
– Tim Brosnan (Tim’s Fantasy Tips)
Trey Lance (SF): Consensus ADP – QB13 | 99th Overall
“Trey Lance is going to be a top-10 quarterback this year, and to get him at QB13 would be a steal. Lance is this year’s Jalen Hurts. He’s going to do major damage with his legs. Anything he does as a passer will be gravy — and his maturation in that area should be hastened by the formidable pass-catching trio of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. No doubt Lance will sometimes be flummoxed by his first prolonged exposure to NFL defenses, but that’s fine — a mobile quarterback who doesn’t like what he sees is simply going to take off and run. ”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Q3. Who is the best value pick at WR based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?
Mike Williams (LAC): Consensus ADP – WR19 | 51st Overall
“Mike Williams was the WR1 in half-PPR scoring through the first five weeks of the 2021 season (just ahead of Cooper Kupp), piling up 31-471-6 over that stretch. But Williams tweaked his knee in Week 5, and his productivity slowed down for more than a month before picking up gain down the stretch. The 6-4 Williams has a giant wingspan that makes him a lethal red-zone threat. And while he won’t melt stopwatches with his speed, Williams makes more than his share of big plays, as evidenced by his career average of 16.1 yards per catch. Keenan Allen isn’t the Chargers receiver you should be chasing in drafts this year.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Jalen Tolbert (DAL): Consensus ADP – WR64 | 174th Overall
“With Michael Gallup slated to miss (at minimum) the very beginning of the 2022 NFL season while recovering from last year’s ACL injury, and with James Washington sidelined by a broken foot, there is nothing standing in the way of Jalen Tolbert seizing the WR2 spot on the Cowboys depth chart to begin 2022. Going off the board at WR65, the 2022 third-round draft pick is a great low-risk/high-reward player walking into Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) top-graded offense and sixth-graded passing offense from last season. His price is inexpensive enough that you can easily move on if he busts early.”
– Herms (The Lateral)
Michael Thomas (NO): Consensus ADP – WR27 | 68th Overall
“Michael Thomas. Just two seasons removed from finishing as WR1 overall, Thomas is ranked below players like AJ Dillon (54th overall) and Amari Cooper (63rd overall)? No offense to those players, but neither has proven his league-winning upside the way Thomas has. Of course, the risk associated with drafting him is baked into his ADP. All I’m saying is, a healthy MT has never finished lower than WR7 (PPR) in any full season he has played.”
– Tim Brosnan (Tim’s Fantasy Tips)
Allen Robinson (LAR): Consensus ADP – WR26 | 66th Overall
“Allen Robinson. Yes, Robinson had a thoroughly disappointing final season in Chicago, but you have to believe it was because he already had one foot out the door. Motivation will not be an issue while suiting up for the defending Super Bowl champions, and it also doesn’t hurt that Robinson will be getting a huge upgrade in QB and coaching staff. Cooper Kupp will remain the alpha in L.A., but Sean McVay’s teams have regularly supported two top-24 fantasy receivers, and that is an even safer bet ever since Matthew Stafford came on board.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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