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Wide Receiver Intended Air Yards Analysis (2022 Fantasy Football)

Wide Receiver Intended Air Yards Analysis (2022 Fantasy Football)

NFL analysts Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks, co-hosts of the Move the Sticks podcast, often use an analogy comparing receivers to ice cream flavors. The idea is that receivers can succeed in different ways, and coaches and front offices might have a favorite style — in this analogy, a favorite flavor. So, some receivers are great after the catch. Other receivers can win on contested deep throws. Further, a select group of receivers is great at all facets of playing the position. Nevertheless, racking up air yards is one avenue for piling up receiving yardage. Below, find out which receivers led the pack and who trailed in Intended Air Yards in 2021.

Intended Air Yards (Sports Info Solutions)

Intended Air Yards are the cumulative yards the ball traveled in the air beyond the line of scrimmage to the pass-catching target. For instance, if a quarterback completes a pass 30 yards downfield to a receiver, the 30 yards are counted as Intended Air Yards, irrespective of the yards gained after the reception. But, of course, Intended Air Yards can be accumulated in a variety of ways. For example, three passes 10 yards downfield are equivalent to a 30-yard pass downfield as measured by Intended Air Yards. As a result, many upcoming leaders were also on the Target Share leaderboard. However, there are a few fresh faces.

Leaders

I've previously said I agree with the average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus rankings (ECR) in point-per-reception (PPR) formats ranking Cooper Kupp as WR1. However, Justin Jefferson is in the same tier as Kupp. Moreover, anyone making a case for ranking Jefferson ahead of Kupp should point to Jefferson's edge in Intended Air Yards over Kupp. Minnesota's star receiver was first in Target Share and Intended Air Yards last year. So essentially, Kupp and Jefferson are 1 and 1A.

The third wideout, a smidge behind Kupp and Jefferson, atop the second tier is Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's wunderkind was outside the top-20 receivers in Target Share. However, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among wideouts with at least 50 targets last year, Chase was eighth in Yards Per Route Run (2.44 Y/RR). As you can see above, he was also 10th in Intended Air Yards. Again, the second-year wideout is special.

Yet, it's challenging to make a case for ranking him ahead of Kupp or Jefferson because Tee Higgins is also a baller. Higgins was 10th in Yards Per Route Run (2.18 Y/RR) and 20th in Intended Air Yards, despite playing three fewer games than Chase. Basically, Higgins is a vastly superior No. 2 WR to the Rams' and Vikings' second options, with all due respect to veterans Allen Robinson and Adam Thielen. Higgins outscoring Chase is genuinely in the former's range of outcomes, making him an attractive selection at his 32.0 ADP (WR12).

Sadly, Stefon Diggs' efficiency declined in his second season in Buffalo. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Diggs slipped from 9.2 Yards per Target (Y/Tgt) to 7.5 Y/Tgt. Additionally, he dipped from 1.91 Y/RR to 1.81 Y/RR. So are the efficiency declines a cause for concern? Not really. Diggs was still good, and volume is the king. Buffalo's No. 1 receiver was a Target Share and Intended Air Yards monster, and he projects to dominate those categories again this year. He's my WR4, but the top-scoring receiver is on the table for him.

Laggers

Kadarius Toney and Rondale Moore were the fourth and seventh receivers selected in last year's draft. Toney flashed his potential, despite playing for buffoons Joe Judge, Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens. Big Blue's coaching staff is now led by former Bills' offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and it will look drastically different. Daboll should make New York's offense fantasy relevant.

The elephant in the room is the lingering question about what the new regime thinks of Toney. They don't have any ties to selecting him, and they popped receiver Wan'Dale Robinson in the second round of this year's draft. Thankfully, Toney is versatile and can play on the perimeter or in the slot. There's a risk to picking Toney, but that's more than baked into his ADP (114.2/WR48). Additionally, I'm not putting too much stock in Toney's usage under the previous staff of donkeys. Yes, Toney was electrifying with the ball in his hands. Per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), among receivers with at least 50 targets, Toney was tied for 11th in Yards After the Catch per Reception (6.1 YAC Per Rec). So, if Daboll continues to lean on Toney's YAC ability, he's proven capable of gashing defenses in that capacity.

Conversely, Moore is still playing for Kliff Kingsbury. Adam Levitan at Establish the Run has regularly referred to Kingsbury as a fake sharp, and it's hard to dispute Levitan's assessment. The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on Moore and used him as a gadget player. Hilariously, Moore had -6 -- that's not a typo -- Completed Air Yards, per SIS. Moore did what he could after the catch, ranking behind only Deebo Samuel (10.4 YAC Per Rec), Mecole Hardman (8.8) and Chase (8.3) with 8.2 YAC Per Rec. Still, Moore left gamers who gambled on him as a rookie wanting more.

Thankfully, there's a path to an increased role and more varied usage in his sophomore season. Slot wideout Christian Kirk departed as a free agent, and DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games. The Cardinals traded for Marquise Brown, but Moore could be a direct replacement for Kirk in the slot. Fortunately, Kingsbury has talked Moore up, voicing confidence in the second-year receiver. If Kingsbury is to be believed, the ball is in Moore's court.

Presently, Moore has a 169.2 ADP as the WR62. However, there's a massive gap between his high and low ADPs, ranging from 113 to 206. Given where he's being picked in best ball leagues, it's probable Moore will creep closer to his 113 ADP as draft season ramps up. He's OK if his ADP reaches 113 heights, but Moore is more desirable if he settles in around 125-135.

CTAs


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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