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    Mario Mergola | Thu, Jul 21st 2022, 9:59am EDT

Statcast Review: Juan Soto, Christian Walker, Jason Adam (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

The All-Star Break is not exactly placed at the midpoint of a given season, but it does serve as the makeshift split between the first and second half of the year. Therefore, the sport will return to action in the “second half,” and fantasy baseball playoff races will start to take shape.

Using this time to delineate season segments allows us to assess yet another checkpoint along the path. Often in this Statcast series, we have looked at numbers we want to use for predictive analysis. In the snapshot of this article, we want to review the descriptive numbers.

How well has a player done in the “first half” of the 2022 season?

Percentile Rankings by xwOBA: Batters

Below are two tables for Percentile Rankings by xwOBA for batters. These numbers represent where a batter ranks relative to the league, and the higher number is better. Per Statcast, 2.1 plate appearances per team game were used as the qualifying cutoff for batters.

Top 20 by xwOBA
Player xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP BRL BRL % EV HH % K % BB % Whiff % Sprint OAA
Yordan Alvarez 100 100 100 100 100 98 98 100 100 70 96 56 27
Aaron Judge 100 94 100 100 95 100 100 100 100 25 81 31 52 85
Juan Soto 99 84 95 96 100 94 86 74 78 90 100 79 27 1
Bryce Harper 99 100 99 98 98 87 91 96 95 65 62 27 66
Mike Trout 98 61 99 99 86 98 99 94 99 9 88 14 97 85
Freddie Freeman 98 99 98 94 99 94 76 90 86 81 74 77 41 63
Joc Pederson 97 88 98 98 87 92 98 99 98 49 61 60 18 7
José Abreu 97 98 95 88 97 89 70 94 96 88 79 65 24 85
Shohei Ohtani 97 85 97 97 91 99 98 95 88 38 83 26 76
Giancarlo Stanton 96 76 96 97 82 99 99 99 98 18 78 9 5
Corey Seager 96 93 96 95 90 94 77 87 82 82 60 37 25 85
Austin Riley 96 86 97 98 73 98 94 97 98 25 39 25 61 1
Kyle Schwarber 95 30 98 99 71 100 100 97 96 6 94 20 26 7
Rafael Devers 95 97 96 94 87 97 88 98 95 70 35 29 28 28
Ronald Acuña Jr. 94 82 93 91 95 80 92 87 91 31 72 23 74
Alejandro Kirk 94 98 90 77 97 72 61 89 79 99 77 95 5
Kyle Tucker 94 83 94 92 92 86 74 54 28 81 91 69 43 77
Christian Walker 93 56 94 96 91 95 91 64 70 63 95 47 44 98
J.D. Martinez 93 93 93 86 89 92 88 64 73 40 55 26 25
Will Smith 93 85 92 88 93 84 76 78 73 86 84 89 55

 

Bottom 20 by xwOBA
Player xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP BRL BRL % EV HH % K % BB % Whiff % Sprint OAA
Jackie Bradley Jr. 7 29 11 17 12 20 23 21 38 60 28 20 48 77
Bryson Stott 7 16 9 16 15 9 16 29 16 60 51 88 88 28
Elvis Andrus 7 22 5 8 24 13 10 29 14 85 55 67 15 12
Yuli Gurriel 5 32 7 8 16 8 5 28 32 93 19 90 45 5
Nicky Lopez 5 42 4 2 25 1 1 4 2 91 20 88 63 89
Mike Moustakas 5 1 3 17 18 17 30 40 32 23 57 25 10 42
Javier Báez 5 12 28 46 2 59 53 21 19 38 7 3 67 89
Rougned Odor 5 2 11 36 4 46 55 28 23 23 21 31 50 7
Brad Miller 4 6 19 42 2 25 54 82 45 13 30 7 51 5
Randal Grichuk 4 16 11 22 2 25 23 51 70 32 5 51 65 12
Taylor Walls 4 6 4 14 11 20 27 7 16 22 58 49 84 5
Martín Maldonado 3 1 13 57 1 37 68 79 83 4 42 12 1
Cristian Pache 2 25 4 4 6 8 14 72 68 21 11 19 83 96
Tony Kemp 2 3 1 1 10 2 2 1 1 86 51 95 23 42
Leury García 2 29 8 9 2 17 21 13 25 48 1 53 79 28
Sheldon Neuse 2 12 2 5 10 5 9 54 41 21 37 39 32 12
Andrew Velazquez 1 5 5 21 1 13 26 57 36 2 3 10 88 94
Jonathan Villar 1 8 1 3 4 2 4 60 47 19 30 5 40 1
Victor Robles 1 4 1 2 7 5 9 1 1 32 16 30 86 77
Jacob Stallings 1 4 1 5 2 4 6 5 8 37 38 59 1

Notes

  • Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge are the two names that lead almost every article in this series, and the variable has been the players who immediately follow them. This time, Juan Soto has that honor, as the Home Run Derby champion is also tied for the third-highest xwOBA percentile. It is worth mentioning that Soto’s season has been described as “disappointing” quite often, but the reality is that he is still among the elite hitters in the game. There are rumors that he may get traded in the coming weeks, and, if that happens, he will almost certainly be plugged into a deeper lineup — if only by default of leaving behind a Nationals team ranked fourth-worst in runs-scored-per-game.
  • It was already mentioned that the top-two hitters have remained essentially unchanged throughout the season, but we are now at the point where the top-six are mainstays on a year-to-year basis. The players who rank highest in xwOBA are household fantasy baseball names. In fact, the bulk of the top 20 can fit that description as well — including someone like Ronald Acuna, Jr., who missed almost the entire month of April. This makes it even more impressive with players like Alejandro Kirk and Will Smith — both of whom are catchers — cracking the top-twenty.
  • Juan Soto was mentioned as a possible trade candidate, but Christian Walker’s name has also been tied to some trade rumors. Walker’s current offense isn’t as anemic as Soto’s — the Diamondbacks rank ninth-worst in runs-scored-per-game — where he may not see a drastic spike in numbers. Still, Walker is performing at a high level and deserves recognition for this excellence to date.
  • The bottom 20 in the hitters’ section combine speed and defense. Most of the players can carry their metaphorical weight in one of those two areas — the last two columns on the chart — where teams are sacrificing offensive production for either a glove or the ability to make something happen on the base paths. For the sake of fantasy baseball, we often care about neither — with the obvious exception of stolen bases providing extreme value given their relative scarcity. Players like Javier Baez and Mike Moustakas were drafted by fantasy managers for their contributions at the plate, and so far, they have failed to deliver.

Percentile Rankings by xwOBA: Pitchers

Below are two tables for Percentile Rankings by xwOBA for pitchers. These numbers represent where a pitcher ranks relative to the league, and the higher number is better. Per Statcast, 1.25 plate appearances per team game were used as the qualifying cutoff for pitchers.

Top 20 by xwOBA
Player xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP BRL BLR % EV HH % K % BB % Whiff % xERA FB Vel. FB Spin Curve Spin
Clay Holmes 100 99 100 100 97 98 99 65 47 76 84 89 100 91 43
Jason Adam 100 100 99 99 99 97 97 94 99 92 80 97 100 70 99
Ryan Helsley 99 100 98 82 100 74 35 15 44 99 40 98 99 99 100 51
Emmanuel Clase 99 87 97 99 97 98 99 95 81 81 96 64 99 100 99
John Schreiber 99 98 98 96 99 94 92 78 43 90 90 92 99 59 40
Edwin Díaz 99 99 99 99 97 98 98 94 61 100 42 100 99 99 76
Scott Effross 98 91 94 94 97 90 92 81 66 88 82 45 98 12 43
Yimi Garcia 98 94 95 88 98 94 94 92 95 67 95 58 98 66 86 77
Andrés Muñoz 98 95 96 89 96 84 66 85 47 99 71 99 98 100 54
Kenley Jansen 98 98 90 69 100 84 75 88 96 97 80 68 98 39 95
Penn Murfee 97 95 92 79 98 74 58 80 83 95 80 53 97 7 55
A.J. Minter 97 97 95 82 98 58 28 69 91 96 92 85 97 61 97
Devin Williams 97 99 100 100 82 100 100 99 97 99 6 100 97 50 57
Joe Mantiply 96 78 94 97 97 97 98 97 71 72 100 73 96 13 35 28
Trevor Stephan 96 91 95 94 95 90 91 78 76 76 71 90 96 90 92
Evan Phillips 95 96 97 87 96 90 86 94 94 88 78 89 95 68 79
Clayton Kershaw 95 83 88 89 96 58 90 77 81 78 95 65 95 16 90 37
Daniel Bard 95 99 99 96 87 90 86 83 61 84 9 64 95 98 96
Eli Morgan 95 97 85 55 99 58 33 61 72 93 97 65 95 27 57
Wandy Peralta 95 92 98 97 93 90 92 99 96 38 60 95 95 76 35

 

Bottom 20 by xwOBA
Player xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP BRL BLR % EV HH % K % BB % Whiff % xERA FB Vel. FB Spin Curve Spin
Vince Velasquez 5 15 2 2 22 15 2 9 14 37 49 46 5 44 84 32
Bryse Wilson 5 2 10 27 7 37 47 8 18 12 61 11 5 39 5 24
Patrick Corbin 5 4 5 9 12 1 20 10 12 27 54 23 5 30 17
Ralph Garza Jr. 4 3 11 28 1 58 46 83 55 1 15 11 4 6 38
Antonio Senzatela 4 1 4 39 5 40 81 15 30 2 85 1 4 57 20 13
Joan Adon 4 10 12 13 2 12 17 33 60 19 7 1 4 74 37 22
Carlos Hernández 3 3 7 15 2 40 24 39 36 1 11 39 3 79 77 19
T.J. McFarland 3 1 9 36 2 58 42 1 1 2 49 3 3 6 3
Zach Logue 3 26 1 1 29 37 3 13 13 17 42 28 3 5 16 39
Rony García 2 9 1 1 27 9 1 2 1 66 63 24 2 42 70 28
Hunter Strickland 2 11 12 14 1 51 30 29 71 20 6 68 2 77 81
Yusei Kikuchi 2 28 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 67 3 77 2 66 47
Michael Pineda 2 1 1 2 24 31 12 1 8 1 98 2 2 9 2
Elvin Rodriguez 1 14 1 1 8 37 1 1 1 11 20 1 1 42 88
Bruce Zimmermann 1 1 1 1 22 1 4 6 25 9 98 10 1 15 74 41
Jared Koenig 1 5 7 11 1 74 66 10 10 1 17 1 1 2 23 18
Adam Oller 1 22 3 3 2 58 37 10 41 3 3 17 1 27 32
Kyle Bradish 1 2 2 5 4 21 7 3 16 45 40 47 1 71 64 48
Tyler Gilbert 1 3 1 1 9 37 4 29 13 6 61 10 1 3 26 50
J.B. Wendelken 1 2 7 22 1 74 61 67 86 15 12 27 1 72 88

Notes

  • Clay Holmes has been outstanding for the New York Yankees, and he has moved into the territory of “must-have” closers for the time being. Jason Adam, however, has just four saves to his name but is putting together one of the best seasons, essentially going overlooked. Once again, the number of saves is often what drives a relief pitcher’s value — not always, but for the bulk of fantasy baseball formats — but we can’t ignore that Adam ranks at or near the top of most percentile categories for pitchers.
  • Like a few of the hitters mentioned in the previous section, Devin Williams is another mainstay in this series of articles. He continues to deliver phenomenal numbers — he is averaging more than 1.6 strikeouts-per-inning — and is a vital piece of the Brewers’ bullpen. Unfortunately for Williams and the majority of fantasy managers, his lack of save opportunities limits his value, similarly to the aforementioned Jason Adam. Williams is pitching so well that his role in the bullpen shouldn’t matter.
  • Nearly every pitcher in the top 20 is a reliever, but the name that jumps off the screen is also one of the greatest players of this generation. Clayton Kershaw, pitching at age 34 and failing to reach 30 starts each year since 2015, is among the most productive pitchers in the league. His strikeout rate is still down from his peak seasons, but it remains around his career average. More importantly, he continues to limit runs at an outstanding pace, and his 2.13 ERA is the fourth-lowest of his career and the best it has been since 2016.
  • As always, the bottom of any chart presents concerns but is often made up of names that wouldn’t regularly contribute to a fantasy baseball team. There are exceptions, which is why we need to highlight players like Yusei Kikuchi and Patrick Corbin. Kikuchi was signed by the Blue Jays before this season and has failed to deliver in his first year with a new team. Conversely, Corbin is now into his fourth season with the Nationals, and his production continues to plummet. After leading the league in losses last year, he is repeating that trend in the encore. Pitching for a weak team like Washington doesn’t help, but Corbin is primarily to blame with back-to-back seasons with ERAs over 5.80.

Have something you want me to cover in this space, or do you just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.


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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.

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