Statcast Review: Juan Soto, Christian Walker, Jason Adam (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

The All-Star Break is not exactly placed at the midpoint of a given season, but it does serve as the makeshift split between the first and second half of the year. Therefore, the sport will return to action in the “second half,” and fantasy baseball playoff races will start to take shape.

Using this time to delineate season segments allows us to assess yet another checkpoint along the path. Often in this Statcast series, we have looked at numbers we want to use for predictive analysis. In the snapshot of this article, we want to review the descriptive numbers.

How well has a player done in the “first half” of the 2022 season?

Percentile Rankings by xwOBA: Batters

Below are two tables for Percentile Rankings by xwOBA for batters. These numbers represent where a batter ranks relative to the league, and the higher number is better. Per Statcast, 2.1 plate appearances per team game were used as the qualifying cutoff for batters.

*Top 20 by xwOBA*
Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	xISO	xOBP	BRL	BRL %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %	Sprint	OAA
Yordan Alvarez	100	100	100	100	100	98	98	100	100	70	96	56	27
Aaron Judge	100	94	100	100	95	100	100	100	100	25	81	31	52	85
Juan Soto	99	84	95	96	100	94	86	74	78	90	100	79	27	1
Bryce Harper	99	100	99	98	98	87	91	96	95	65	62	27	66
Mike Trout	98	61	99	99	86	98	99	94	99	9	88	14	97	85
Freddie Freeman	98	99	98	94	99	94	76	90	86	81	74	77	41	63
Joc Pederson	97	88	98	98	87	92	98	99	98	49	61	60	18	7
José Abreu	97	98	95	88	97	89	70	94	96	88	79	65	24	85
Shohei Ohtani	97	85	97	97	91	99	98	95	88	38	83	26	76
Giancarlo Stanton	96	76	96	97	82	99	99	99	98	18	78	9	5
Corey Seager	96	93	96	95	90	94	77	87	82	82	60	37	25	85
Austin Riley	96	86	97	98	73	98	94	97	98	25	39	25	61	1
Kyle Schwarber	95	30	98	99	71	100	100	97	96	6	94	20	26	7
Rafael Devers	95	97	96	94	87	97	88	98	95	70	35	29	28	28
Ronald Acuña Jr.	94	82	93	91	95	80	92	87	91	31	72	23	74
Alejandro Kirk	94	98	90	77	97	72	61	89	79	99	77	95	5
Kyle Tucker	94	83	94	92	92	86	74	54	28	81	91	69	43	77
Christian Walker	93	56	94	96	91	95	91	64	70	63	95	47	44	98
J.D. Martinez	93	93	93	86	89	92	88	64	73	40	55	26	25
Will Smith	93	85	92	88	93	84	76	78	73	86	84	89	55

*Bottom 20 by xwOBA*
Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	xISO	xOBP	BRL	BRL %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %	Sprint	OAA
Jackie Bradley Jr.	7	29	11	17	12	20	23	21	38	60	28	20	48	77
Bryson Stott	7	16	9	16	15	9	16	29	16	60	51	88	88	28
Elvis Andrus	7	22	5	8	24	13	10	29	14	85	55	67	15	12
Yuli Gurriel	5	32	7	8	16	8	5	28	32	93	19	90	45	5
Nicky Lopez	5	42	4	2	25	1	1	4	2	91	20	88	63	89
Mike Moustakas	5	1	3	17	18	17	30	40	32	23	57	25	10	42
Javier Báez	5	12	28	46	2	59	53	21	19	38	7	3	67	89
Rougned Odor	5	2	11	36	4	46	55	28	23	23	21	31	50	7
Brad Miller	4	6	19	42	2	25	54	82	45	13	30	7	51	5
Randal Grichuk	4	16	11	22	2	25	23	51	70	32	5	51	65	12
Taylor Walls	4	6	4	14	11	20	27	7	16	22	58	49	84	5
Martín Maldonado	3	1	13	57	1	37	68	79	83	4	42	12	1
Cristian Pache	2	25	4	4	6	8	14	72	68	21	11	19	83	96
Tony Kemp	2	3	1	1	10	2	2	1	1	86	51	95	23	42
Leury García	2	29	8	9	2	17	21	13	25	48	1	53	79	28
Sheldon Neuse	2	12	2	5	10	5	9	54	41	21	37	39	32	12
Andrew Velazquez	1	5	5	21	1	13	26	57	36	2	3	10	88	94
Jonathan Villar	1	8	1	3	4	2	4	60	47	19	30	5	40	1
Victor Robles	1	4	1	2	7	5	9	1	1	32	16	30	86	77
Jacob Stallings	1	4	1	5	2	4	6	5	8	37	38	59	1

Notes

Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge are the two names that lead almost every article in this series, and the variable has been the players who immediately follow them. This time, Juan Soto has that honor, as the Home Run Derby champion is also tied for the third-highest xwOBA percentile. It is worth mentioning that Soto’s season has been described as “disappointing” quite often, but the reality is that he is still among the elite hitters in the game. There are rumors that he may get traded in the coming weeks, and, if that happens, he will almost certainly be plugged into a deeper lineup — if only by default of leaving behind a Nationals team ranked fourth-worst in runs-scored-per-game.
It was already mentioned that the top-two hitters have remained essentially unchanged throughout the season, but we are now at the point where the top-six are mainstays on a year-to-year basis. The players who rank highest in xwOBA are household fantasy baseball names. In fact, the bulk of the top 20 can fit that description as well — including someone like Ronald Acuna, Jr., who missed almost the entire month of April. This makes it even more impressive with players like Alejandro Kirk and Will Smith — both of whom are catchers — cracking the top-twenty.
Juan Soto was mentioned as a possible trade candidate, but Christian Walker’s name has also been tied to some trade rumors. Walker’s current offense isn’t as anemic as Soto’s — the Diamondbacks rank ninth-worst in runs-scored-per-game — where he may not see a drastic spike in numbers. Still, Walker is performing at a high level and deserves recognition for this excellence to date.
The bottom 20 in the hitters’ section combine speed and defense. Most of the players can carry their metaphorical weight in one of those two areas — the last two columns on the chart — where teams are sacrificing offensive production for either a glove or the ability to make something happen on the base paths. For the sake of fantasy baseball, we often care about neither — with the obvious exception of stolen bases providing extreme value given their relative scarcity. Players like Javier Baez and Mike Moustakas were drafted by fantasy managers for their contributions at the plate, and so far, they have failed to deliver.

Percentile Rankings by xwOBA: Pitchers

Below are two tables for Percentile Rankings by xwOBA for pitchers. These numbers represent where a pitcher ranks relative to the league, and the higher number is better. Per Statcast, 1.25 plate appearances per team game were used as the qualifying cutoff for pitchers.

*Top 20 by xwOBA*
Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	xISO	xOBP	BRL	BLR %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %	xERA	FB Vel.	FB Spin	Curve Spin
Clay Holmes	100	99	100	100	97	98	99	65	47	76	84	89	100	91	43
Jason Adam	100	100	99	99	99	97	97	94	99	92	80	97	100	70	99
Ryan Helsley	99	100	98	82	100	74	35	15	44	99	40	98	99	99	100	51
Emmanuel Clase	99	87	97	99	97	98	99	95	81	81	96	64	99	100	99
John Schreiber	99	98	98	96	99	94	92	78	43	90	90	92	99	59	40
Edwin Díaz	99	99	99	99	97	98	98	94	61	100	42	100	99	99	76
Scott Effross	98	91	94	94	97	90	92	81	66	88	82	45	98	12	43
Yimi Garcia	98	94	95	88	98	94	94	92	95	67	95	58	98	66	86	77
Andrés Muñoz	98	95	96	89	96	84	66	85	47	99	71	99	98	100	54
Kenley Jansen	98	98	90	69	100	84	75	88	96	97	80	68	98	39	95
Penn Murfee	97	95	92	79	98	74	58	80	83	95	80	53	97	7	55
A.J. Minter	97	97	95	82	98	58	28	69	91	96	92	85	97	61	97
Devin Williams	97	99	100	100	82	100	100	99	97	99	6	100	97	50	57
Joe Mantiply	96	78	94	97	97	97	98	97	71	72	100	73	96	13	35	28
Trevor Stephan	96	91	95	94	95	90	91	78	76	76	71	90	96	90	92
Evan Phillips	95	96	97	87	96	90	86	94	94	88	78	89	95	68	79
Clayton Kershaw	95	83	88	89	96	58	90	77	81	78	95	65	95	16	90	37
Daniel Bard	95	99	99	96	87	90	86	83	61	84	9	64	95	98	96
Eli Morgan	95	97	85	55	99	58	33	61	72	93	97	65	95	27	57
Wandy Peralta	95	92	98	97	93	90	92	99	96	38	60	95	95	76	35

*Bottom 20 by xwOBA*
Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	xISO	xOBP	BRL	BLR %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %	xERA	FB Vel.	FB Spin	Curve Spin
Vince Velasquez	5	15	2	2	22	15	2	9	14	37	49	46	5	44	84	32
Bryse Wilson	5	2	10	27	7	37	47	8	18	12	61	11	5	39	5	24
Patrick Corbin	5	4	5	9	12	1	20	10	12	27	54	23	5	30	17
Ralph Garza Jr.	4	3	11	28	1	58	46	83	55	1	15	11	4	6	38
Antonio Senzatela	4	1	4	39	5	40	81	15	30	2	85	1	4	57	20	13
Joan Adon	4	10	12	13	2	12	17	33	60	19	7	1	4	74	37	22
Carlos Hernández	3	3	7	15	2	40	24	39	36	1	11	39	3	79	77	19
T.J. McFarland	3	1	9	36	2	58	42	1	1	2	49	3	3	6	3
Zach Logue	3	26	1	1	29	37	3	13	13	17	42	28	3	5	16	39
Rony García	2	9	1	1	27	9	1	2	1	66	63	24	2	42	70	28
Hunter Strickland	2	11	12	14	1	51	30	29	71	20	6	68	2	77	81
Yusei Kikuchi	2	28	4	3	2	3	1	1	1	67	3	77	2	66	47
Michael Pineda	2	1	1	2	24	31	12	1	8	1	98	2	2	9	2
Elvin Rodriguez	1	14	1	1	8	37	1	1	1	11	20	1	1	42	88
Bruce Zimmermann	1	1	1	1	22	1	4	6	25	9	98	10	1	15	74	41
Jared Koenig	1	5	7	11	1	74	66	10	10	1	17	1	1	2	23	18
Adam Oller	1	22	3	3	2	58	37	10	41	3	3	17	1	27	32
Kyle Bradish	1	2	2	5	4	21	7	3	16	45	40	47	1	71	64	48
Tyler Gilbert	1	3	1	1	9	37	4	29	13	6	61	10	1	3	26	50
J.B. Wendelken	1	2	7	22	1	74	61	67	86	15	12	27	1	72	88

Notes

Clay Holmes has been outstanding for the New York Yankees, and he has moved into the territory of “must-have” closers for the time being. Jason Adam, however, has just four saves to his name but is putting together one of the best seasons, essentially going overlooked. Once again, the number of saves is often what drives a relief pitcher’s value — not always, but for the bulk of fantasy baseball formats — but we can’t ignore that Adam ranks at or near the top of most percentile categories for pitchers.
Like a few of the hitters mentioned in the previous section, Devin Williams is another mainstay in this series of articles. He continues to deliver phenomenal numbers — he is averaging more than 1.6 strikeouts-per-inning — and is a vital piece of the Brewers’ bullpen. Unfortunately for Williams and the majority of fantasy managers, his lack of save opportunities limits his value, similarly to the aforementioned Jason Adam. Williams is pitching so well that his role in the bullpen shouldn’t matter.
Nearly every pitcher in the top 20 is a reliever, but the name that jumps off the screen is also one of the greatest players of this generation. Clayton Kershaw, pitching at age 34 and failing to reach 30 starts each year since 2015, is among the most productive pitchers in the league. His strikeout rate is still down from his peak seasons, but it remains around his career average. More importantly, he continues to limit runs at an outstanding pace, and his 2.13 ERA is the fourth-lowest of his career and the best it has been since 2016.
As always, the bottom of any chart presents concerns but is often made up of names that wouldn’t regularly contribute to a fantasy baseball team. There are exceptions, which is why we need to highlight players like Yusei Kikuchi and Patrick Corbin. Kikuchi was signed by the Blue Jays before this season and has failed to deliver in his first year with a new team. Conversely, Corbin is now into his fourth season with the Nationals, and his production continues to plummet. After leading the league in losses last year, he is repeating that trend in the encore. Pitching for a weak team like Washington doesn’t help, but Corbin is primarily to blame with back-to-back seasons with ERAs over 5.80.

Have something you want me to cover in this space, or do you just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.

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