For the past few weeks, we have turned back to some statistics that were used earlier in the year. The pattern continues for this installment as well, but the difference is that we will combine both batting average and slugging percentage. Specifically — and, as we did in the past — we will be looking at the difference between the standard numbers — SLG and BA — and their expected outputs — xSLG and xBA.

As we noted in the prior article featuring wOBA and xwOBA, the deeper we get into the season, the smaller the disconnect between surface and expected numbers. We are seeing the same trend with slugging percentage and batting average, as their “differences” have shrunk since we last checked approximately six weeks ago. As always, we still want to find the players whose regression appears to be in the correct direction.

Actual vs. Expected BA and SLG – Batters

Below are two tables of batters sorted by BA-xBA and SLG-xSLG, respectively, and players with at least 325 plate appearances were used. A negative difference in either number is better for batters, as it suggests a positive correction. For reference, the league averages as of the time this table was created are .242 BA, .255 xBA, -0.013 BA Difference, .396 SLG, .439 xSLG, and -0.043 SLG Difference.

Sorted by BA-xBA Low-to-High

Sorted by SLG-xSLG Low-to-High

Notes

• Corey Seager continues to appear in these articles, and how can he not be featured as one of the first names? His underlying statistics repeatedly outpace his actual performance, and the difference is too strong to ignore. Indeed, he ranks in the top two for both tables, but the math is even simpler than the “differences” shown. Among the qualified hitters above, Seager’s batting average and slugging percentage are on the lower end of the scale. The expected versions of these numbers are some of the highest.
• Another name that is frequently mentioned in these articles is the current frontrunner for the American League MVP Award: Aaron Judge. The difference between Judge and most of his other league-mates is that, in addition to extremely high expected numbers, his actual statistics remain extraordinary. The tables above represent this nicely, as his expected slugging percentage is a whopping 0.079 higher than Kyle Schwarber’s — who ranks second in the category — but Judge’s actual slugging percentage is also second highest out of the above qualified hitters. What Judge is doing remains impressive, but his expected numbers are even more promising for this career year to continue.
• Including this year, Juan Soto’s batting averages for each of his five Major League seasons are as follows: .292, .282, .351, .313, and .226. Need I continue? The outlier that is his 2022 campaign cannot be completely ignored — we are now one week into July, after all — but it remains unlikely for Soto to hit this far below his career average of .290 — which, in its own right, is an excellent mark. The underlying numbers agree, as Soto has the fourth-largest gap between BA and xBA. It’s not difficult to see how he can correct in a positive direction.
• While the aforementioned Aaron Judge is putting up career-defining numbers while showing signs that his upward trend can continue, Paul Goldschmidt remains overextended and in position for a crash. Is this definitely going to result in a downward spiral? Of course not. But Goldschmidt’s batting average and slugging percentage are simply too high compared to their expected numbers that a decline is likely. It’s worth monitoring this and approaching Goldschmidt with caution.

Actual vs. Expected BA and SLG – Pitchers

Below are two tables of pitchers sorted by BA-xBA and SLG-xSLG, respectively, and players with at least 350 plate appearances against were used. A positive difference in either number is better for pitchers, as it suggests a positive correction. For reference, the league averages as of the time this table was created are .242 BA, .255 xBA, -0.013 BA Difference, .396 SLG, .439 xSLG, and -0.043 SLG Difference.

Sorted by BA-xBA High-to-Low

Sorted by SLG-xSLG High-to-Low

Notes

• Corey Seager was the top highlight in the hitters’ section, and it was not the first time that he held this honor. For the pitchers, that same “award” goes to Tyler Mahle. Mahle actually leads both tables, and he is also no stranger to these articles. Like Seager, Mahle continues to struggle on the surface. We can easily see the path to better numbers, however, and it is not time to give up on the pitcher just yet. Granted, he did just land on the injured list, but we should be ready to pounce when he returns.
• Ian Anderson was outstanding in his first season, albeit in just six starts. He then followed it up with an impressive 2021 campaign to the tune of a 3.58 ERA and just under one strikeout per inning. This year? The results leave plenty to be desired. Fear not. As is the point of this series, we can take a different approach to what Anderson has done so far and recognize that it should improve from here. He obviously has the past history — short as it may be — on his side, but the expected numbers are pointing in the right direction, as well.
• Sandy Alcantara is putting together a truly remarkable season. His ERA is under 2.00, and he leads the league in innings pitched, starts, and shutouts. He is also allowing the lowest slugging percentage of any pitcher listed in the above tables. The downside? His expected numbers are tilted in the wrong direction. Alcantara is an example of how we can gauge these values, though, where his xBA and xSLG are still among the best in the league. Therefore, even if regression strikes, it should not be too dramatic, where it might actually allow his numbers to reset before continuing along their outstanding path.
• We just noted that Alcantara’s regression is looming, but it’s possibly too slight to drive his value down. What about Justin Verlander? He sits in the bottom four for both BA-xBA and SLG-xSLG. Is that enough to overcome each statistic’s low starting point? Possibly, as Verlander is obviously experienced enough to deal with the grind of a season. Still, we can’t ignore how much room there is for a negative move, and we should watch closely for any signs of a dip.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.