Statcast Review: Bryson Stott, Austin Riley, Lucas Giolito (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Last week, this series of Statcast articles focussed on the start of the unofficial second half of the 2022 season. In doing so, we could look backward and gauge how each player ranks against the league. This time, we are measuring a player against himself.

We’ve gone down this road before. The “rolling windows” article has a few prior iterations, and therein lies its value. We can repeatedly look at the same player over a different period and watch the changes in the numbers.

Rolling xwOBA – Last 100 PA: Batters

Below are two tables for rolling xwOBA over the last 100 PA by batters. “Then” refers to the start of the timeframe, while “now” is the current xwOBA for a player. “Delta” is the difference between the two. The first table is sorted by “Delta” from high to low, while the second is from low to high.

Notes

• Bryson Stott is on fire. His difference in statistics is so drastic that he legitimately went from one of the worst hitters in the league — based on xwOBA — to an above-average one in a matter of 100 plate appearances. Of course, his numbers aren’t outstanding, but that’s simply because they were weighed down by a slow start. We should probably expect some regression — most likely, he sits somewhere between his low and high points — but it is thoroughly inspiring for his fantasy managers and the Phillies that he can produce at such a feverish pace.
• The National League East is represented quite well at the top of the chart, where Atlanta’s Austin Riley slots into second place according to “Delta.” Riley is at a different level from the aforementioned Stott, whose starting point was already high. That makes his last 100 plate appearances even more extraordinary, and he is likely carrying his fantasy teams to a playoff berth based on this recent surge.
• The divisional trend continues once more as Juan Soto — the center of most baseball conversations lately — finds his way onto the list among the sport’s hottest hitters. Like Riley, Soto had an extremely high starting point — the highest of anyone on the first list, actually — but he continues to deliver at such an incredible pace that any concerns about a slow start or weaker 2022 fantasy output should now be alleviated. Rumors continue to swirl that Soto will be dealt in the coming days, and he continues to perform even with all eyes on him.
• We always flip to the opposite side of a table to see if any names jump off the screen as surprises simply because of their history. It doesn’t take long to find Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. as the player worth highlighting. He has gone cold over the last few weeks, and fantasy managers will need to rely on prior performances to drive his future outcomes. Dansby Swanson and Kyle Tucker are also worth mentioning because both had spent time atop prior lists for various reasons, and they have drastically regressed to the mean.

Rolling xwOBA – Last 100 PA: Pitchers

Below are two tables for rolling xwOBA over the last 100 PA by pitchers. “Then” refers to the start of the timeframe, while “now” is the current xwOBA for a player. “Delta” is the difference between the two. The first table is sorted by “Delta” from low to high, while the second is from high to low.

Notes

• Although he missed the cutoff in a prior installment of this series, Lucas Giolito was on the wrong side of the rolling windows weeks ago. He has turned his season around and now leads the league in “Delta” over the last 100 plate appearances. His numbers, as a whole, aren’t incredible — they are still quite bad — but he has significantly recovered from an uncharacteristic start to the year.
• In the past, his “best” numbers weren’t nearly as good as the aforementioned Giolito’s, but Jose Berrios has been mentioned multiple times in this series. He was continually on the verge of extreme concern where. He was threatening to fall off the map entirely, and he was also in a position to positively correct. Now that we can see the transition over the last 100 plate appearances, we can be more optimistic about Berrios’ future. He has improved dramatically and, hopefully for his fantasy managers, can continue along this path.
• Cristian Javier and Clayton Kershaw may sit at the bottom of the table, but their numbers are among the best in the league. That makes their appearance on the list of “best difference in numbers” even more impressive. Even if they were to have some negative regression, they are establishing a solid enough baseline where we should continue to expect a positive season overall.
• The name that leads the top of the last list should be self-explanatory. MacKenzie Gore has been a top pitching prospect for years and finally debuted with his Major League club this year. Despite mixed success and injuries throughout the Minor Leagues, Gore was outstanding immediately. That ” outstanding ” level was simply unsustainable for a rookie with his backlog of ailments, and, right on cue, Gore can see his numbers balloon in the wrong direction. Also, on cue, Gore was placed on the Injured List with an ailment in his throwing elbow. Between the missed time ahead and the team already limiting his innings, Gore has likely delivered all he has for fantasy managers in 2022.

Have something you want me to cover in this space, or do you just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.