Regression Candidates: Willy Adames, Corey Seager, Dansby Swanson (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Welcome to another edition of “Regression Candidates,” where we dig into some analytics each week to identify two players due to heat up and two likely to cool down. As we’re at the All-Star break, it’s a good time to check in on BABIP. BABIP is a great stat, but it can be misleading if not used in the proper context. A high or low BABIP alone does not necessarily indicate positive or negative regression is on the horizon, as some players naturally have high or low BABIPs.

One of the ways to contextualize BABIP properly is to compare the current season to the player’s career average. Doing so is a quick and easy way to spot regression candidates. Below are some hitters whose 2022 BABIP varies tremendously from their career average – both the positive and the negative. All stats are through Saturday’s games, and if you need help with any definitions, please refer to our sabermetrics glossary.

Positive Regression Candidates

The player with the most significant negative BABIP variance was Christian Walker. However, we discussed him about a month ago, so today, we’ll focus on numbers two and three on the list: Willy Adames (SS – MIL) and Corey Seager (SS – TEX).

Below are Adames’ season-to-date hitter VBR, 5×5 stats, and career BABIP before 2022 (cBABIP):

Adames is having a good fantasy season for the most part. He’s outperforming his ADP for hitters of 86 and is delivering in the runs, HRs, and RBI departments. Surprisingly, Adames has been successful despite his .216 batting average, which is far below his career average of .262 heading into this season. Likewise, his 2022 BABIP is 87 points below his career norm, which suggests some positive regression may be headed his way.

One thing to note is that Adames is hitting three percent fewer line drives and six percent more fly balls this season than in the past few years. This variance in his batted ball profile could be partially responsible for the dip in BABIP (though it is likely helping his HR total). Even so, it’s likely Adames will see his average rebound somewhat, making him an even more valuable fantasy asset. It’s hard to call a guy with 18 HRs and 50 RBI at the break a buy-low candidate, but if you can trade for him reasonably, he could pay big dividends.

Here’s the same data for Seager:

Much like Adames, Seager is having an excellent fantasy year, exceeding his hitter ADP of 45. He’s hitting more HRs than expected, but a .249 batting average is well below his career norm of .295 heading into the year. Seager changed teams and leagues during this offseason, which may account for some BABIP variances. However, unlike Adames, his batted ball profile is relatively in line with what he’s done historically.

Everything appears to be lining up for a monster second half from Seager. If he’s on your roster, hold onto him and don’t worry about the average, which should normalize. If he’s available via trade, he’s worth targeting.

Negative Regression Candidates

On the flip side are the hitters who may have some batting average decay in the second half. First up is Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL), who has far exceeded expectations this year. Here are his first-half stats:

It’s been a magical season for Swanson thus far, as he’s on pace to set career highs in runs, RBI, and stolen bases. His .291 average would also be a career-high outside of his rookie season when he had only 145 plate appearances. He’s an All-Star for the first time this year, but can he sustain this pace through September?

Swanson is hitting fewer ground balls this season, but not dramatically so. His Hard Hit% and Barrel% are also slightly higher than his career average, though not considerably. These metrics suggest he’ll be able to keep up some of his pace, though in all likelihood, not all of it. Swanson should still be pretty good down the stretch, but probably not the top ten hitter he’s been thus far. Sell high if he’s on your roster, and don’t target him in a trade if he’s not.

Second on the list is C.J. Cron, but since we covered him to a certain extent in April and he didn’t join the Rockies until 2021, we’ll skip him.

Instead, we’ll look at number three, who is yet another shortstop: Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS). Here’s his profile:

Bogaerts is having a weird season. He’s not hitting HRs, which also affects his RBI, but he has a high BA. He’s hit for an average this high before – in 2015 when he hit .320. So he may maintain this pace, though it is unlikely considering his K-rate is also at the highest point since 2014. Compounding the potential for regression are his Statcast numbers, which are far below his actuals. His .270 xBA screams of batting average regression and his xSLG of .422 do not imply more power is on the way.

It isn’t easy to see what may be going on with Bogaerts. Perhaps he’s pressing with his potential free agency coming after the season (assuming he opts out). As of now, though, he looks like a guy who will hit .270-.290 with 7-10 HRs the rest of the way. This isn’t horrible, but it is not what you want from your third or fourth-round draft selection. Consider selling if you can get someone to bite on the high BA. Otherwise hope he’ll find another gear down the stretch and avoid targeting him via trade.

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