Welcome to another edition of “Regression Candidates,” where we dig into some analytics each week to identify two players due to heat up and two likely to cool down. Last week, we looked at the hitters whose 2022 BABIP varied the most from their career average. This week, we’ll do the same for pitchers.

To ensure we had a sample size that was substantial enough, we limited the analysis to pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 70 innings this season and 300 innings before this year. Below are the players with the highest and lowest variances, with a spotlight on two pitchers from each category. All stats are through Sunday, and you can find statistical definitions in our sabermetrics glossary.

Positive Regression Candidates

The most significant variance between career and 2022 BABIP belongs to Lucas Giolito (SP – CHW). Below are some of his season-to-date stats, along with his career BABIP (cBABIP) before this year:

Giolito hasn’t been a good fantasy asset this season, especially considering he probably cost you a fourth or fifth-round draft pick. Other than strikeouts, his stats have been disappointing. However, it appears he’s had some bad BABIP luck. His highest BABIP before this season was 2.73 in 2019, so there’s reason to believe his WHIP and ERA will improve down the stretch. His FIP and xERA support this notion, as they both reside in the mid-4.0 range.

From a fantasy perspective, the best move is likely to hold onto Giolito and hope that the turnaround comes. If he’s on your roster, his trade value is too low to get much back for him in return, and he’s not pitching well enough to target for a trade if he’s not. If he can cut down a bit on the walks and the HRs down the stretch, he could be a fantasy asset again down the stretch. However, that’s a big “if.”

Next on the list is Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR); however, we discussed him last month, so we’ll proceed to number three, Patrick Corbin (SP – WAS). Here are Corbin’s YTD stats:

Corbin hasn’t been as bad as it looks, though still a long way from being good. His BABIP inflates his ERA, and he’s still striking batters out at a good clip. He is walking too many batters (3.1 per nine innings), but his walk rate has always been high. On a positive note, his CSW% is similar to last season and not far off from his career norm. Corbin’s most significant problems this season have been home runs and LOB%. He’s allowing 1.55 HRs per nine, and 15.9% of his fly balls are leaving the park. These rates rank fifth and third worst in the league among qualified pitchers. His LOB% of 64.2% is the lowest rate in MLB. So yeah, he’s been a bit unlucky.

From a fantasy perspective, Corbin should be a bit better moving forward. However, you should temper your expectations unless you are in a deep league. He still pitches for a lousy team unless the Nationals find a way to unload him at the deadline, so don’t expect many wins. Plus, his WHIP will be high even if it comes down some. The best bet for Corbin may be as a streaming option. If he’s facing a poor offense, he could still be of some use for fantasy.

Negative Regression Candidates

The most significant negative variance belongs to reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (SP – MIL). However, even with some negative regression, Burnes would still be one of the best pitchers in the league, so we’ll proceed to number two on the list, Michael Wacha (SP – BOS). Wacha is on the injured list currently, but it sounds like he’ll be back relatively soon. He’s been a pleasant fantasy surprise this season, posting the following numbers:

Besides the K-rate, Wacha has been excellent for fantasy this season. He’s now rostered in just under half of leagues, so fantasy managers have noticed. But can he keep it up once back from injury? It doesn’t seem very likely. Wacha’s FIP is over a run higher than his ERA, and his xERA is nearly two runs higher at 4.75. Combine that with his third lowest BABIP amongst qualified pitchers, and it screams “negative regression.”

The good news is that if you have Wacha on your roster, you likely added him off the waiver wire or drafted him with one of your last selections. As his price wasn’t high, some regression shouldn’t hurt too much. It’s OK to hold him and see how he does upon his return, but don’t hold on too tight. If he starts to regress, cut bait and move on.

The next largest 2022 to career BABIP belongs to Miles Mikolas SP – STL, who got roughed up by the Reds yesterday. Here are Mikolas’s stats through Sunday:

It’s been a good year for Mikolas in his first full season since 2019. His K-rate isn’t great for fantasy, but it has never been. On the other hand, his ERA, WHIP, and Wins have been solid. It appears he’s had some luck on his side, though. In addition to the BABIP variance, his FIP, xFIP, and xERA are all about a run higher than his ERA. In 2019, the Hard Hit % against Mikolas was nearly identical to this season, yet his ERA was 4.16. An ERA in this range seems more likely going forward.

Thus, Mikolas is due for a bit of regression – which may have already started as Sunday’s start was his worst outing of the year. He should pitch well enough to stay on your fantasy team, but his numbers will probably start to trend in the opposite direction. If you have an opportunity to sell high on him, you should take it.

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