Welcome to another edition of “Regression Candidates,” where we dig into some analytics each week to identify two players due to heat up and two likely to cool down. Last week, we used Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus (DRC+) to help us identify some hitters due for regression. This week, we’ll focus on Deserved Run Average (DRA-), the pitcher version of DRC+.
DRA- also puts the player’s performance on a scale, with 100 being the average. For a different reference point, you can also use DRA, which is roughly equivalent to ERA. You can find more detail on DRA- and all its component stats on Baseball Prospectus.
For our purposes, we pulled the statistics for all pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings this season and compared their fantasy production to their DRA- to help identify regression candidates. Below are some fantasy-relevant players that had significant positive or negative variances. Each pitcher’s year-to-date fantasy stats (through Saturday, July 9) are listed along with their DRA, DRA-, and FantasyPros’ VBR among starting pitchers. If you need assistance with any of the statistics mentioned below, check out our Sabermetrics Glossary for definitions.
Positive Regression Candidates
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | DRA | DRA- | VBR |
| 3 | 11.3 | 1.34 | 5.70 | 4.38 | 100 | 137 |
The highly touted Greene has had an up-and-down rookie season with more downs than ups. The only positive has been his strikeout rate, which is in the elite category. However, DRA- believes Greene has been a league-average pitcher to date who deserves better than his 5.70 ERA. Some other stats support this notion. For one, Greene leads the league in HR/9 at a staggering 2.32. As a result, his xFIP is a much more palatable 4.04. In addition, Greene’s xERA is 4.34, which is very similar to his DRA.
Greene may still be learning how to pitch at the big-league level, so he’s a risky buy-low candidate or waiver add. However, given his tremendous upside, he may be worth taking a shot on, especially if you need strikeouts.
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | DRA | DRA- | VBR |
| 4 | 7.7 | 1.53 | 5.90 | 4.58 | 104 | 223 |
Despite pitching for Colorado his entire career, Marquez has managed to be a relatively effective fantasy starter. This year, however, things have not gone his way. His DRA- suggests this is not all his fault, though. At 104, Marquez is only 4% worse than the average starter, and his ERA appears inflated by more than a run. Like Hunter Greene, Marquez has been bitten hard by the long ball this season, surrendering 1.70 per nine. He also has the third-worst LOB% in the league at 64.5%. His xERA and xFIP agree with his DRA and suggest he’s more deserving of an ERA in the mid-fours.
Marquez probably isn’t worth targeting, given the Coors Field-related limitations to his upside. However, if he’s on your waiver wire, he’s worth considering as an away-from-home streamer at the very least. Marquez’s home ERA is 7.17 this season vs. 4.46 on the road. There’s also the possibility he gets moved at the trade deadline, which would likely increase his fantasy value.
Note: Marquez started on Sunday and pitched well, allowing two earned runs over seven innings and earning the win at Arizona. His ERA on the season lowered to 5.66 as a result.
Negative Regression Candidates
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | DRA | DRA- | VBR |
| 7 | 7.3 | 1.18 | 2.72 | 4.53 | 103 | 26 |
Most seasoned fantasy managers probably figure that Perez will cool off. After all, he hasn’t had an ERA below 4.00 since 2013. But just how far may he regress? DRA thinks he’s been a slightly below-average pitcher this season despite his 2.72 ERA. In fact, his DRA and DRA- are very similar to German Marquez, whose ERA is over three runs higher. Working in Perez’s favor this year is the lack of homers hit off him. Unlike Greene and Marquez, he’s been very fortunate, with a 6.1% HR/FB ratio that ranks him sixth in the league. Should that normalize, his numbers will start to creep up.
Perez’s luck may already be changing. Over his past two starts, he’s surrendered four HRs after giving up just two in his previous 15 starts this season. There is also the possibility Perez gets traded this month, which could hurt his fantasy value as Globe Life Park has been a pretty good park for pitchers since its inception. If you can find a willing trade partner, Perez is the ideal sell-high candidate right now.
| WINS | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | DRA | DRA- | VBR |
| 7 | 8.5 | 1.03 | 2.57 | 4.38 | 100 | 23 |
Urias is an interesting case. He’s put up excellent numbers again this season, and his xERA supports his production. However, his DRA, FIP, and xFIP suggest he’s headed for some negative regression. DRA- thinks he’s been an average pitcher and his 3.92 FIP indicates his defense has bailed him out quite a few times this year. In addition, his BABIP is on the low side and his LOB% on the high side, further indicating luck.
Another concern is innings, as he threw over 200 last year, including the postseason, which was far more than any other season in his career. Should the Dodgers continue to hold a solid divisional lead in the coming weeks, they may conceivably shut him down for a bit to give him some rest. Urias doesn’t feel like a sell-high candidate per se; however, his fantasy output may take a dip in the second half. He should still be good, but if you can get a Top 40 player back for him, you may want to consider it.
Note: Julio Urias’s regression has already begun as he got roughed up by the Cubs on Sunday. He allowed five earned runs over only two innings and his ERA rose to 3.01.
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