In our “Closer Look” series, we’re examining ambiguous, hard-to-read position groups and offering advice on how to handle them in 2022 fantasy football drafts. In this installment, Andrew Erickson takes a closer look at the wide receivers for the New England Patriots.
- A Closer Look at the Chiefs Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Falcons Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Cardinals Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Dolphins Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Patriots Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Broncos Wide Receivers
Primary Contributors
Jakobi Meyers is easily one of the most underrated wide receivers in fantasy football. The former undrafted free agent has been the Patriots target leader for the past two seasons, with his most recent accomplishment finishing top-12 in target share (23%) in 2021.
The high-end target share also aligned with Meyer’s deployment in the Patriots passing attack, where Meyers was running a route on 92% of team dropbacks – the sixth-highest mark in the league.
New England’s No. 1 receiver just needs to cash in on more touchdowns to unlock his fantasy ceiling. He has been extremely underused in that category; his 866 receiving yards resulting in two touchdowns were the lowest of any WR in 2021.
Kendrick Bourne #betterinbestball, Jakobi Meyers #betterinredraft
Bourne finished as a top-24 receiver the same number of times as Jakobi Meyers (five) but busted six more times (seven vs. one).
Jakobi Meyers finished as a WR4 (top-48) or better in 80% of his games last season.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 28, 2022
Kendrick Bourne didn’t absorb the same high-end target share that Jakobi Meyers did in the Patriots offense in 2021, but he posted career-high efficiency marks across the board. He caught 83% of his targets (2nd) and finished 14th overall in yards per route run (2.01).
After such an impressive first season in New England, it wouldn’t be outlandish to see Bourne earn more targets in Year 2. After all, his 70% route participation has room to grow.
Kendrick Bourne – WR85 ADP pic.twitter.com/plGhvY0ZcR
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 11, 2022
2021 was a typical season for DeVante Parker. The former first-round pick by the Miami Dolphins had at least seven targets in seven of his nine games played, scoring double-digit fantasy points in more than half of them. He averaged 12.9 expected fantasy points per game through 17 weeks (28th).
His offseason acquisition by the Patriots – Parker and 2022 fifth-round pick for a 2023 third – helps shore up the need for a big-bodied wide receiver on the perimeter that can make plays downfield. But the extent of how high a target share Parker will command remains to be seen. If anything, he probably has the most touchdown upside of the New England Patriots WRs.
Just don’t be overly bullish on him being available all season long, as his injury history proceeds him; he’s played 16 games once in his seven-year career.
And last season’s 1.48 yards per route run was also his worst mark since 2018 as was his 55% catch rate.
Tyquan Thorton was barely on my radar for fantasy football purposes before the 2022 NFL Rookie Scouting Combine, when he burst onto the scene with a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash.
And his impressive time alone got him Round 2 Draft Capital from the Patriots, but it’s no guarantee that he has any impact on offense outside an occasional big-play.
The Baylor wideout’s speed translated well into on-field production during his final year as he graded out as a top-10 wideout in PFF receiving grade from the intermediate level of the field (10-19 yards) last season.
However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him play more special teams than on-field offensive action in Year 1. Bill Belichick is notorious for over-drafting players that can offer some special teams value.
Thorton’s biggest threat for playing time is likely veteran Nelson Agholor, who inked a two-year $26 million contract with the Patriots in 2022 after a career year with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2019.
Although, Agholor hardly lived up to his hefty payday finishing the season 70th in receiving yards (473) and 73rd in receptions (37). On the bright side of things, he did only have one recorded drop per PFF.
Agholor owns the fifth-highest wide receiver salary cap hit in 2022 ($14.8 million) so it’s going to be his job to lose as a starter in 3-WR sets.
Highest WR cap hits in 2022
Kenny Golladay – $21.5M
Keenan Allen – $19.2M
DeAndre Hopkins – $17.95M
Cooper Kupp – $17.8M
Nelson Agholor – $14.8Mper @spotrac
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 6, 2022
It’s also possible that Agholor gets cut if he struggles in training camp. The team could save $5 million versus the cap just taking on $10M in dead money versus his remaining contract.
Other Potential Contributors (Longshots)
Wilkerson didn’t get much playing time in Year 2, outside a spot start versus the Jaguars in Week 17. He played 83% of the snaps, catching four-of-eight balls for 42 yards and two touchdowns.
Ty Montgomery signed a two-year deal worth $3.6 million with the Patriots this offseason, likely solidifying his role on the roster as the team’s primary kick returner. With a running back-wide receiver hybrid skill set, Monty is also a dark horse candidate to earn a role on offense should injuries plague the backfield.
Famously the last draft pick influenced by longtime Patriots Director of Football Research, Ernie Adams, Tre Nixon was a seventh-round pick that spent his entire rookie year on the practice squad. He’s generated decent buzz out of spring mini camps, suggesting he’s got a legitimate shot to be back on the practice squad in 2022.
The Patriots declined the fifth-year option on N’Keal Harry’s contract in May 2022, likely indicating the end of his career in New England. Rumor is that Harry might make the transition to tight end, which is what busts attempt when all hope is lost. Don’t hold your breath on Harry hoping he can deliver on his 2019 first-round draft capital.
More likely he’s not on the Patriots roster by the start of the 2022 season. Case in point, Harry was traded to the Chicago Bears for a 2024 seventh-round pick on 7/12/2022.
End of an era.
The former seventh-round pick from the Navy started his NFL career with the Miami Dolphins but spent 2021 on the Patriots practice squad after being released. It’s not surprising that New England ended up snagging Perry from their AFC East rivals, considering Bill Belichick’s background in the Navy Academy.
With a super versatile skill set to play quarterback, running back and wide receiver, Perry is a name to watch during the Patriots preseason.
Humphrey signed with the Saints as UDFA in 2019 and has been a member of the team’s practice squad. However, a failed physical led to him signing a deal with the Patriots in 2022.
He’s a big-bodied wideout that finished with the 14th-highest passer rating when targeted (128.2) in 2021. A solid, real-life big slot depth option for the Patriots.
List of feats that Matthew Slater has accomplished more times in his NFL career than receptions (1):
- Super Bowl Rings (3)
- All-Pros (2)
- Pro Bowls (10)
The soon-to-be 37-year-old will continue to be a menace on special teams but will be off the fantasy radar as he has been for the past 14 years.
Analysis
The Patriots receiving corps have not been a great upside fantasy investment in the post-Tom Brady era the past two seasons, with Meyers’ WR30 PPR finish in 2021 the highlight of the bunch. Still, it’s hard to envision him drastically tapering off his team-leading target share, even if the remaining pieces in the offense close the gap.
Because their inline is the main issue with the Patriots; there are too many receivers in this offense (including tight ends) that figure to be in the target pecking order, making no player a sure-fire bet to be a reliable fantasy asset in 2022.
How to Value These Players
However, the overall ambiguity of the Patriots current WR situation has tanked all of their ADPs across the board. Meyers has the highest ADP at WR61, followed by Parker (WR64) and then Bourne (WR83).
Lowest overall team ADPs
New England Patriots 180.1 lol
Houston Texans 179.9
Giants 174.2
Jacksonville Jaguars 173.0
Tennessee Titans 173.0
Carolina Panthers 169.8
New Orleans Saints 167.7
Washington 167.6
Cleveland Browns 164.8
Indianapolis Colts 164.8
Falcons 162.9
Bears 162.2— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 17, 2022
Therefore, all should be considered value targets in the latter portion of drafts outside the first 13 rounds. Meyers has the highest floor of the bunch based on his high command of targets the past two seasons. So in redraft PPR formats that require four or five starting WRs, he’s a guaranteed lock to beat his ADP.
But for the upside, Bourne is by far my favorite target. He flashed big-time playmaking ability – 97th percentile PFF receiving grade in 2021 – and chemistry with Mac Jones a season ago, while seizing just a 13% target share. There’s certainly room for that percentage to grow in 2022, especially with a boost in playing time.
The former 49ers WR surpassed 58 receiving yards in just under half of his games last season (eight). Meyers accomplished that feat just six times.
As for Parker, I’ve got major trust issues. I’ve followed the Patriots for a long time and acquiring an older injury-prone veteran wideout like Parker who struggles to separate – ranked 99th out of 100 qualifying WRs in separation percentage in 2021 – just terrifies me.
Thornton and Agholor are just straight-up last-round best ball dart-throws with the capability of popping off one big play as the most likely candidates to see high aDOTs.
I’d likely favor Thorton with the hopes that he earns a role down the stretch and has a big game during the best ball playoffs (Weeks 14-17). In a best ball league that is cumulative scoring, I’d opt for Agholor.
Although, I will remain bearish on both deep threats considering Agholor’s 2021 spikes in air yardage almost exclusively came in when other Patriots WRs were also seeing more air yards.
In traditional redraft leagues, these two are 100% hands-off.
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