The New England Patriots were among the league’s best offenses last year. They were seventh in points per game (26.6), fifth in points per play and 10th in red-zone scoring attempts per game. New England has ranked inside the top eight in red zone rushing rate in four of the last five seasons, yet none of their running backs are being drafted inside the top 24 at their position.

Why is this? Because fantasy managers are frightened to their cores about Bill’s “Belitricks.” Since 2017 a New England running back has cracked the top 24 in fantasy points per game four times. The issue is that the Patriots’ weekly game plan can vary widely, so knowing when to bench or start one of their backs can be a headache-inducing quandary.

While the risk is real, we can’t avoid this bountiful source of fantasy goodness despite our trepidation. Let’s kick fear to the curb and discuss how to approach this backfield in fantasy football this season.

• A Closer Look at the Chiefs Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Falcons Running Backs
• A Closer Look at the Cardinals Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Dolphins Running Backs

Primary contributors

*ADP per Underdog Fantasy*

Damien Harris (ADP: RB29, Overall 90.1)

Before Damien Harris hits free agency next year, he’s likely to enjoy another season as the Patriots’ early-down option. Last year he finished 17th in carries and 12th in red-zone totes in this role. Damien Harris was an efficient early-down grinder, ranking 16th in evaded tackles and eighth in breakaway run rate.

He was also otherworldly inside the 20, ranking fourth in red-zone conversion rate but only 15th in red-zone opportunity share. Some of the opportunity share rankings are skewed as he dealt with a hamstring strain, neck strain, concussion and bruised ribs, leading to him missing two games and playing less than 36% of the snaps in four other contests. The drawback for Damien Harris is a puny passing game role. Last season he finished 63rd in targets (20) and 36th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF).

Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: RB38, Overall 105.4)

With Damien Harris banged up last season, Rhamondre Stevenson was given a chance to show what he could do as a rookie. He averaged 22.3 touches and 99.6 total yards in the three games he played at least 50% of the snaps. He proved the preseason flashes were real as he finished 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 8th in yards per route run (minimum 100 rushing attempts, 20 targets per PFF). Stevenson is a tackle-breaking bowling ball with silky soft hands in the passing game.

James White (ADP: RB75, Overall 215.7)

Last season, James White was limited to three games due to a hip injury from which he is still rehabbing. Before the injury, he looked primed to be an integral part of the Patriots’ offense for the 2021 season. In Weeks 1-2, he ran a route on 46.5% of dropbacks, drawing an 18.8% target share (6.5 targets per game), finishing as the RB23 and RB9.

His yards per route run was an eye-popping 2.76, which in this incredibly small sample was fourth (minimum five targets) among running backs behind only Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard and Cordarrelle Patterson. The team felt good enough about his hip to bring him back in the fold from free agency with a two-year deal. Although it also deserves to be mentioned that this resembles a prove-it deal with only a 1.5 million cap hit in 2022 and zero dead cap in 2023.

Other Potential Contributors

Pierre Strong (ADP: RB89, Overall 215.9)

Don’t let Pierre Strong’s small school background fool you. Strong is quite talented. He blew up the combine running a 4.37 40-yard dash finishing with an 86th percentile burst score and 75th percentile agility score per PlayerProfiler.com. This wiggle showed up on his college film and in the boxscore. In his four seasons at South Dakota State, among all FCS and FBS running backs with 100 or more rushing attempts, he ranked inside the top 10 in yards after contact per attempt and breakaway rate twice.

The buzz since his draft selection has been around him being the long-term replacement for James White, but with his 0.92 collegiate yards per route and wretched PFF pass-blocking grades, it’s fair to question Strong in that role. Strong was also a puzzling draft pick with his bread and butter coming on zone runs as New England has historically been a gap and power-oriented team. If (or when) the team decides to integrate (or switch) to a predominant zone scheme run game, Strong could take off.

Kevin Harris (ADP: RB96, 216.0)

Kevin Harris resembles the Patriots’ running back archetype of the past few seasons. Kevin Harris logged a solid 3.48 yards after contact per attempt at South Carolina, with 48.7% of his runs coming via gap concept plays. While his 4.61 40-time isn’t impressive, he makes up for it with a 91st percentile broad jump, reflected in this 90th percentile burst score (per Playerprofiler.com).

With only sixth-round draft capital tied to him and a deep depth chart, Kevin Harris’s likelihood of making an impact this season is slim. His 72nd percentile college dominator does give some slim hope that he could be the long-term Damien Harris replacement if Stevenson and Strong aren’t up to the task.

J.J. Taylor (ADP: N/A)

Since arriving in New England in 2020, J.J. Taylor has rarely seen the field. He’s amassed 42 rushing attempts and six targets in the 11 games he’s been active. Taylor has only mustered 2.29 yards after contact per attempt. Standing at 5-6, 185 pounds, his ultimate hope would be to claim a satellite back role for the Patriots. With the team adding multiple runners since signing him as an undrafted free agent, the flame on that candle has been reduced to a flicker.

Analysis

Barring injury, Damien Harris likely enters camp with the starting running back job being his to lose. While we know Damien Harris’s shortcomings in the passing quite well, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable asset for fantasy, as last season proved. He’s quietly one of the better pure rushers in the NFL.

The wild card in this backfield is Stevenson. Stevenson was hyper-efficient in his inaugural season as a bully between the tackles and as a receiver out of the backfield. Stevenson could enter James White’s role for New England if White cannot suit up. As previously discussed, we saw in a small snippet how valuable that role could be for fantasy last year. Stevenson could also take the early-down role from Damien Harris in camp with the upside to earn some work in the passing game. Those are the bull cases for Stevenson. The downside is he could be regulated to breather-back status if Damien Harris reprises his role and White is healthy.

White proved last year that he isn’t ready for retirement just yet. Assuming his health complies, he will be the passing down back for New England. That value could be heightened in 2022 because the Patriots should pass more. Last season they were 32nd in neutral passing rate (50%), so they have nowhere to go but up.

Unless injury strikes this backfield in massive proportions or the top of this running back depth chart face plants, it’s difficult to see Strong garnering a fantasy-viable role in year one. Yes, Stevenson played a big role in 2021, but that was out of necessity because of injuries. Sony Michel handled 216 touches in his rookie season for this team, but he also carried first-round draft capital with him. Damien arris, selected in the third round of the NFL Draft, which isn’t far off from Strong’s draft slot, was buried in his rookie season. Damien Harris only played in two games and handled four rushing attempts.

The same can be said for Kevin Harris. With even less capital attached to him, he’s almost certainly a zero for fantasy in 2021. A similar broken record spins for Taylor. The Patriots were given every opportunity to run him out there as the pass game specialist last season with White injured, and they said adamantly no.

How to Value These Players

In my latest rankings update, I’m in line with the consensus on Damien Harris. He is my RB29 in half PPR scoring. If he rolls right back into last year’s touchdown gobbling role, he can easily outplay this ranking. The issue for Damien Harris remains that as good as he is as a runner, the upside to also play in the passing game is nonexistent. This hurts his median outlook, and he needs that massive touchdown total to be a value. He fits certain roster builds for me, and that’s likely where I’ll garner my exposure. Damien Harris makes a ton of sense if you’re leaning WR-heavy early or approaching a league with a hero or zero running back team build.

Conversely, I’m above consensus on Stevenson (RB34), White (RB64) and Strong (RB73). Stevenson has the talent to seize this backfield and play in all facets of the game if White isn’t ready or able. If White is shelved, Stevenson could pay off handsomely even if he only hogs the passing work. The same can be said for White if he’s healthy and returning to his usual role.

Saying I’m above the field on Strong isn’t a huge stance. Looking in that range of running backs that likely won’t sniff the field or are washed, Strong stands out like a sore thumb. He’s possibly the RB3 on this depth chart if White is out. Investing in what was a top-10 scoring offense last year for the price of free as the last pick in Best Ball or your redraft league is a move I’ll always make. The risk he’s a zero this season is baked in, but the upside that he garners a role like Stevenson last year isn’t.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.