Wednesday’s main slate is medium-sized, including eight games at DraftKings and FanDuel. Additionally, it starts at the same time at both DFS providers, beginning at 7:05 pm ET. There’s an intriguing mix of high-upside offenses and talented pitchers, despite the size of the slate.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The best pitching selections are top-heavy tonight. Still, there's a debuting rookie with GPP appeal.
Wednesday’s main slate is medium-sized, including eight games at DraftKings and FanDuel. Additionally, it starts at the same time at both DFS providers, beginning at 7:05 pm ET. There’s an intriguing mix of high-upside offenses and talented pitchers, despite the size of the slate.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The best pitching selections are top-heavy tonight. Still, there's a debuting rookie with GPP appeal.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Luis Severino (NYY) at PIT
Severino narrowly edges out the other top options tonight. He's been excellent after being limited to only 18 innings from 2019-2021. According to FanGraphs, in 14 starts totaling 78 innings, he's had a 3.35 ERA, 2.90 xERA, 1.05 WHIP, 28.9 K% and 28.6 CSW%.
Severino has a dreamy matchup against the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh is 26th in wRC+ (86) against righties, punching out at a 25.1% clip. Thus, the host Buccos offer Severino massive strikeout potential. Honestly, the matchup is the tiebreaker between Severino and the forthcoming top-shelf starters.
Cristian Javier (HOU) vs. KC
Javier has been dialed in. In his last five starts totaling 28.2 innings, he's had a 2.83 ERA, 2.65 SIERA, 0.80 WHIP and 38.4 K%. Javier has struck out 27 batters in his previous two starts combined.
The righty has a great matchup with the Royals tonight. Kansas City is tied for 23rd in wRC+ (90) against right-handed pitchers. In addition, the betting info is great. The Astros are -265, per Betting Pros. So he's essentially the 1A to Severino tonight. Thankfully the two can be used together in cash games at DK.
GPP Recommendations:
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. WSH
Nola is having a fantastic bounce-back campaign. In 16 starts totaling 103.2 innings, he's had a 3.13 ERA, 2.83 xERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.5 BB%, 29.1 K% and 31.2 CSW%. Nola has also been an innings horse, pitching at least seven innings in his last five starts and seven of his last nine. Moreover, he's struck out at least six in eight of those games.
The righty held the Nationals scoreless in eight innings on June 18, striking out eight. However, Washington's a slightly more challenging and less-strikeout prone offense than the Pirates and Royals, pushing Nola just behind Severino and Javier. Regardless, Nola's elite ability makes him a high-upside GPP pick.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs. TB
Bello is an intriguing GPP option tonight. The 23-year-old righty debuts tonight after a dominant beginning of the year in Double-A and Triple-A. In 14 starts spanning 85 innings this year, he's had a 2.33 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 1.04 WHIP and 33.7 K%.
Bello has also earned high swinging-strike rates at both levels, validating his elite strikeout rate. But, obviously, The Show is a whole different ballgame. He'll also have to avoid the pitfalls of his hitter-friendly home park, making him a high-risk selection. Still, Bello's upside is alluring in GPPs. Finally, the Rays bolster his ceiling, striking out at a 25.1% rate against righties this season.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Astros have another desirable matchup tonight. Brad Keller enters tonight's game with a 4.24 ERA that's almost exactly the same as his ERA estimators, such as his 4.23 xERA and 4.27 xFIP. Keller has also had a career-low 15.6 K% this year which won't do him any favors against Houston's high-powered offense. The Astros are second in wRC+ (116) this season against righties. So, Keller is unlikely to succeed tonight.
- Road (PNC Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
Mitch Keller can't put it together. As a result, he's been tagged for a 5.14 ERA in 70 innings. Additionally, his 18.9 K% is below-average, meaning he's playing with fire against the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees have the fourth-highest ISO (.186) against right-handed pitchers this season.
- Home (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/BAL -105
Glenn Otto has been a punching bag for opposing offenses this year, and the O's are the next team to get their licks in. the right-handed pitcher has had a 5.63 ERA and 6.60 xERA in 10 starts lasting just 46.1 innings. Otto has had a disastrous combination of a 17.1 K% and 14.1 BB%. As a result, he can make any offense look like a juggernaut.
- Yordan Alvarez has owned righties this year. He's clubbed 20 long-balls with a .427 OBP, .412 ISO, and 231 wRC+ in 192 plate appearances against them.
- Adley Rutschman has settled into a groove in the last month. In 89 plate appearances from June 5 through July 4, he hit three homers with a .241 ISO and 123 wRC+.
- Kyle Tucker is great with the platoon advantage. In 202 plate appearances against righties this season, he's mashed 10 taters with a .356 OBP, .221 ISO and 140 wRC+. Further, Tucker adds value on the bases, stealing 14 bags in 16 attempts.
- Darick Hall smashed 20 homers in 315 plate appearances in Triple-A. Thankfully, his power has climbed the ladder with him, evidenced by three homers and a .435 ISO in his first 23 plate appearances for the Phillies. Hall has also regularly hit cleanup, enhancing his appeal as a value pick.
- Matt Carpenter has been a valuable reserve for the Yankees. He could get a start with the platoon advantage against Keller. In 35 plate appearances against righties this season, he's hit five homers with a .382 OBP, .517 ISO and 222 wRC+.
- Rougned Odor is a defensible power-chasing punt at the keystone. Since May 1, in 186 plate appearances, he's had eight homers with a .225 ISO.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Astros and Yankees are the top options for offense tonight. However, the Orioles are a great GPP pivot.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
