It’s a medium-sized slate tonight. There are nine games on the main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 pm ET. There’s an unusual number of high-end pitchers getting the ball. However, there are also a few offenses in eruption spots.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is robust tonight. There were some tough cuts. Ultimately, one pitcher on an insane heater is the headliner, followed by the opposing hurler, who was amazing the last time the two AL West foes squared off. Two more righties in excellent matchups with rock-solid marks are also superb picks.
It’s a medium-sized slate tonight. There are nine games on the main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 pm ET. There’s an unusual number of high-end pitchers getting the ball. However, there are also a few offenses in eruption spots.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is robust tonight. There were some tough cuts. Ultimately, one pitcher on an insane heater is the headliner, followed by the opposing hurler, who was amazing the last time the two AL West foes squared off. Two more righties in excellent matchups with rock-solid marks are also superb picks.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. HOU
In his last four starts, Ohtani has had a 0.00 ERA. That's not a typo. He hasn't allowed an earned run in a start since coughing up just one to the Red Sox on June 9. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts spanning 33.2 innings, he's had a 0.27 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, 36.5 K% and 15.7 SwStr%.
Moreover, Ohtani has shoved it down Houston's throat this year in two turns, allowing only one run with 21 strikeouts in 10.2 innings. It gets better this time, as Yordan Alvarez is on the IL. Thus, Ohtani has a great shot at tying them up again. The reigning AL MVP is a better GPP pick on FD, but he's a no-brainer cash selection on DK.
Jon Gray (TEX) vs. OAK
It's a toss-up for the cash-game SP2 at DK, but the cap space Gray provides gets him the nod. Gray is having a stellar first season with his new employer, twirling a 4.03 ERA with even better ERA estimators, such as his 3.87 xERA, 3.37 xFIP and 3.51 SIERA, in 15 starts totaling 82.2 innings.
Gray has also had an excellent 26.5 K% and 29.3 CSW%. The veteran righty will also benefit from facing the Athletics tonight. Oakland is 29th in wRC+ (70) against righties, fanning at an exploitable 23.7% clip. As a result, Gray should clear the low bar for providing value at his modest salary on DK.
GPP Recommendations:
Cristian Javier (HOU) at LAA
Javier clowned the Angels when he faced them on July 1. He held them to one run on a solo homer, zero walks and 14 strikeouts in seven innings. Javier has struck out at least seven batters in four of his previous five turns, owning a jaw-dropping 40.0 K% in those games. He's also had a 2.70 ERA, 3.18 xFIP and 2.68 SIERA.
Javier has been rolling; the same can't be said for the Angels. Over the last 30 days, the Angels are dead last in wRC+ (70) with a staggering 29.4 K%. Therefore, Javier has a mouthwatering matchup that elevates his ceiling, making him a perfect fit for GPPs.
Luis Severino (NYY) vs. CIN
Severino is also a great GPP pick. However, while he's listed in this section, he's also a deserving cash game option on FD. Severino has been outstanding this year, owning a 3.11 ERA, 2.79 xERA, 1.02 WHIP, 27.9 K% and 28.4 CSW% in 15 starts totaling 84 innings.
Clay Holmes threw up all over himself last night, costing Gerrit Cole a win. However, Cole was the latest righty to carve up the Reds, and Severino should be the next. Cincinnati is 27th in wRC+ (85) against righties with a 24.1 K% that Severino can take advantage of. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Yankees are -335.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Yankee Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/NYY -330
The Giants hammered a washed-up lefty last night. Tonight, the more potent Yankees face another dusted southpaw. Mike Minor has had a 6.63 ERA, 5.04 xFIP and allowed 2.84 HR/9 in seven starts. He's also struggled mightily with the platoon disadvantage, surrendering a .341 wOBA to righties since last season. The Bronx Bombers should live up to their nickname tonight.
- Home (Wrigley Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Cubs will be a more intriguing stack if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field. Regardless, their average offense against righties squares off with a below-average righty. Spenser Watkins' 4.15 ERA n 11 starts has overstated how he's pitched this year. The righty's 5.42 xERA and 5.37 xFIP have been markedly worse. So, the Cubs are a matchup-driven GPP stack.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Medium(FD)/High(DK)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Cash
- Game Total/Moneyline: 10.5 Runs/SD -160
The Padres haven't made the most of their trip to Coors Field yet. Still, tonight is an opportunity for an outburst against a below-average starter. Chad Kuhl got off to a surprisingly good start for the Rockies, but the other shoe dropped in the middle of May. Since May 11, in 11 starts, Kuhl has had a 5.15 ERA and 5.06 xFIP. The Friars have many cheap punts gamers can string together or use to complement San Diego's studs tonight.
- All rise for Aaron Judge because he's the top stud in a cupcake matchup. Judge struck out as a pinch-hitter last night, but he should be well-rested and ready to build on his 30 homers, .360 OBP, .326 ISO and 168 wRC+ tonight.
- Unfortunately, Jake Cronenworth isn't having a banner year at the plate. Still, before last night's effort, he had a .382 OBP and 147 wRC+ in his previous 171 plate appearances. Further, he'll have the platoon advantage and leadoff against Kuhl at Coors Field.
- Giancarlo Stanton still has tons of power. In 299 plate appearances, he's ripped 22 round-trippers with a .271 ISO.
- The opportunity cost is small for spinning down to Eric Hosmer at first base. And, obviously, he'll have the platoon advantage at hitter-friendly Coors Field. That's good enough.
- Nomar Mazara is another cheap crack at Kuhl with a lefty. In addition, the 27-year-old outfielder has had a .362 OBP and 130 wRC+ this year.
- Gleyber Torres is underpriced at FD. He's having a bounce-back year after a pair of disappointing campaigns, slugging 13 homers with a .219 ISO, 133 wRC+ and five stolen bases.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Yankees are the premier stacking option tonight. Surprisingly, the Padres are a cheap complement, despite playing at Coors Field. Finally, the Cubs are a potentially off-the-radar stack for gamers in GPPs.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
