Thursday’s main slate is larger than usual. However, it’s different on DraftKings and FanDuel. It starts at 7:05 pm ET at both providers. Yet, it’s a 10-game slate on DK and includes nine games on FD, excluding the Pirates and Reds game that’s the second of a doubleheader.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
It's tightly clustered at the top. However, one pitcher broke away from the others. Behind the top option, a pair of arms are neck and neck for the second-best pitcher honors on tonight's slate. Finally, a GPP option is at the bottom of the table.
Thursday’s main slate is larger than usual. However, it’s different on DraftKings and FanDuel. It starts at 7:05 pm ET at both providers. Yet, it’s a 10-game slate on DK and includes nine games on FD, excluding the Pirates and Reds game that’s the second of a doubleheader.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
It's tightly clustered at the top. However, one pitcher broke away from the others. Behind the top option, a pair of arms are neck and neck for the second-best pitcher honors on tonight's slate. Finally, a GPP option is at the bottom of the table.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Dylan Cease (CWS) vs. DET
Cease has been otherworldly lately. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts totaling 27.2 innings, he's had a 0.65 ERA, 2.21 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 38.3 K% and 33.6 CSW%. Further, he's earned more swinging strikes than called strikes during his heater, generating a blistering 17.4 SwStr%.
Tonight, Cease has the perfect matchup literally. The Tigers are dead last in wRC+ (72) against righties. Detroit has also been strikeout prone, fanning at a 24.0% rate against righties. Finally, the White Sox are -250, per Betting Pros.
Logan Webb (SF) at SD
Webb has also been on a heater. In his previous five starts spanning 31.2 innings, he's had a 1.71 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 5.5 BB%, 23.4 K% and 28.6 CSW%. The matchup is great for Webb tonight, too. The Padres are 20th in wRC+ (95) against righties.
Sadly, it will be tough to get a win. The Giants are underdogs, albeit small (+114). San Francisco's offense has to contend with Joe Musgrove. As a result, this NL West matchup is a probable pitcher's duel, evidenced by the over/under (6.5 runs). Fortunately, Webb can provide value even if he doesn't win.
GPP Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. STL
Strider was a stud in the bullpen to begin the year. So naturally, he should have been expected to slip a bit in production in the rotation. But, funny enough, Strider hasn't skipped a beat. In seven starts lasting 35.1 innings, he's had a 3.31 ERA, 2.36 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 36.8 K% and 29.8 CSW%.
The rookie has shoved it down the throats of the opposition. Still, he has a challenging matchup in his hitter-friendly ballpark, creating a risk for using him. Nevertheless, Strider's 3.81 ERA at home this year has been rock-solid, and his 35.0 K% is elite, fueling GPP upside.
Chase Silseth (LAA) at BAL
Silseth is strictly a GPP SP2 dart throw at DK. The rookie hasn't been perfect, but he's flashed potential with nifty underlying statistics. Namely, Silseth's 3.93 xFIP and 29.3 CSW% have been stellar.
Sadly, he's had just a 5.23 ERA and 19.1 K%. Thankfully, his CSW% suggests he should begin to strike out hitters at a higher rate. Silseth would also benefit from better homer luck, coughing up an absurd 2.18 HR/9 so far. Nevertheless, Silseth is a viable GPP SP2 gamble based on expected regression and has a good matchup. The Orioles are 22nd in wRC+ (92) against righties, and their 23.4 K% is tied for the 10th-highest mark.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves are elite against lefties and at home. They're a challenging matchup for the top pitchers in MLB, and Matthew Liberatore is many rungs lower on the ladder. The rookie has had a 5.66 ERA and 6.23 xERA in five starts for the Cardinals. The lefty has also had a tiny 29.4 GB% that's helped contribute to a 1.74 HR/9. Liberatore's flyball approach is a boon for Atlanta's homer potential tonight. As a result, the sky's the limit for the Braves' offense tonight.
- Road (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
Marco Gonzales has made a career out of exceeding his ERA estimators. This season isn't an exception. The crafty lefty has had a 3.29 ERA. Conversely, he's had a 4.73 xERA and 4.93 xFIP. He might continue to beat his peripherals, but his career-low 13.0 K% leaves a lot to chance, and the Blue Jays can punish a pitch-to-contact approach. The Blue Jays are tied for ninth in wRC+ (113) against lefties this season.
- Road (Chase Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
Usually, the Rockies are an easy fade on the road. That changes when they oppose Dallas Keuchel. The veteran lefty pitched himself off the White Sox. He's since allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in only 9.1 innings for the Diamondbacks. Thus, a change of organizations didn't magically revitalize Keuchel. Even on the road, the Rockies can rock him -- bad pun intended.
- Ronald Acuna leads off for the Braves against Liberatore. Since 2019, the superstar outfielder has had a .396 OBP, .273 ISO and 146 wRC+ against lefties.
- Teoscar Hernandez is a cap-friendly stud and lefty-killer. Since 2019, he's had a .313 ISO and 155 wRC+ against southpaws.
- Alejandro Kirk is coming into his own at the dish this year. In 267 plate appearances, he's hit 10 homers with a .404 OBP and 157 wRC+.
- Matt Chapman is a cheap power source against Gonzales tonight. Since 2019, he's had a .258 ISO versus lefties.
- Matt Carpenter is an attractive piece of the Yankees at hitter-friendly Fenway Park if he's in the lineup tonight. As a part-time player, he's hit eight homers with a .407 OBP, .520 ISO and 237 wRC+ in 60 plate appearances.
- Santiago Espinal has had a .391 OBP and 137 wRC+ against lefties since reaching The Show in 2020.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Blue Jays are high-powered offenses against pitchers ill-equipped to tame them. So, they're the best sources of hitters tonight. However, the Rockies are a nifty GPP option against utterly washed-up Keuchel.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
