There are a pair of afternoon contests and a few teams off. As a result, Thursday’s main slate is only eight games at DraftKings and FanDuel. The fun begins at 7:05 pm ET, and the offense should be plentiful tonight. Thankfully, there are a few intriguing pitchers as well.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The reigning AL MVP is the best pitcher taking the bump tonight and the top pick in cash contests. However, another ace is an intriguing GPP pivot. Meanwhile, the final two pitchers on the table are the best SP2 picks on DK, with one of them doubling as a nifty GPP selection on FD.
There are a pair of afternoon contests and a few teams off. As a result, Thursday’s main slate is only eight games at DraftKings and FanDuel. The fun begins at 7:05 pm ET, and the offense should be plentiful tonight. Thankfully, there are a few intriguing pitchers as well.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The reigning AL MVP is the best pitcher taking the bump tonight and the top pick in cash contests. However, another ace is an intriguing GPP pivot. Meanwhile, the final two pitchers on the table are the best SP2 picks on DK, with one of them doubling as a nifty GPP selection on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. TEX
Ohtani has dominated opponents from the bump this season. According to FanGraphs, in 16 starts totaling 93.1 innings, he's had a 2.80 ERA, 2.47 xERA, 2.37 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, 35.9 K% and 33.5 CSW%.
Additionally, Ohtani has been on a remarkable strikeout streak. He's punched out at least 10 batters in five consecutive starts. Furthermore, Ohtani has a great matchup against the division-rival Rangers tonight. They're tied for 23rd in wRC+ (92) against right-handed pitchers this year, striking out at a 23.3% clip as well. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Angels are -225.
Alex Wood (SF) vs. CHC
Wood has been sharp lately. In his previous five starts totaling 26.1 innings, he's spun a 2.05 ERA, 2.29 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, 2.9 BB%, 30.1 K% and 31.8 CSW%. Additionally, the veteran lefty has been stellar at home while playing for the Giants. In 124.0 innings at Oracle Park since joining the Giants in 2021, he's had a 3.70 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 5.6 BB% and 25.0 K%.
The Cubs are a mid-pack matchup for Wood tonight. Yet, their 23.5 K% against lefties has tied for the seventh-highest mark in 2022. Thus, Wood can snag some strikeouts against the visitors tonight. The Giants are -135, and the game's total is just 8.0 runs, adding to the appeal of using Wood in DFS tonight.
GPP Recommendations:
Zack Wheeler (PHI) at PIT
After an abbreviated spring, Wheeler needed a few starts to build his arm strength. However, after his first three starts, he's nails. In his last 15 turns, he's had a 2.01 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 28.2 K% and 28.5 CSW%.
The veteran righty has an outstanding matchup tonight. The Pirates are tied for 27th in wRC+ (85) against righties, striking out at the second-highest rate (25.4%) against them. Pittsburgh has also been terrible at home, ranking 26th in wOBA (.295). As a result, Wheeler should thoroughly dominate them tonight.
Jose Urquidy (HOU) vs. SEA
Urquidy has stumbled in three starts against the Mariners this year. So, that's sub-optimal. On the flip side, the batter-vs-pitcher folks will fade him, reducing the percentage of rosters he's on and enhancing his GPP outlook.
The appeal of Urquidy is the righty's stellar play at home. In 92.0 innings at home since last year, he's had a 3.03 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 4.9 BB% and 22.0 K%. Yes, his 4.12 xFIP has been less encouraging. Still, Urquidy might be an outlier, owning a 3.69 ERA and 4.51 xFIP in 278.1 innings in his career. Therefore, he's a viable gamble in GPPs tonight at DK and FD.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Rogers Centre)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/TOR -230
The Blue Jays have touched up lefties for a 108 wRC+ this year and raked at home. Toronto's .351 wOBA in home games has been MLB's second-highest mark. Sure, they faceplanted at home last night. Then again, they exploded the night before. Finally, Tyler Alexander isn't the caliber pitcher to hold the Blue Jays in check. He's had an 8.76 ERA in four starts this season.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 12.0 Runs/LAD -210
The total at Coors Field is enormous, and the Dodgers are sizable favorites, as you can see above. No one will overlook the Dodgers tonight, but they're good chalk to eat against Jose Urena and Colorado's pathetic bullpen. Urena has had a 3.00 ERA in four starts this year, but the other shoe will drop. He's had a 4.51 xFIP and hasn't struck out many batters (14.0 K%). So don't overthink stacking the Dodgers in cash games, but consider chasing their ceiling in GPPs, too.
- Home (Minute Maid Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/HOU -139
It's terrific when a high-powered stack can fly under the radar. That's the case with the Astros tonight since the Blue Jays are at home, and there's a game at Coors Field. Heck, there's a game at Fenway Park to boot. The result is an opportunity to stack the Astros in GPPs without them being chalky. Houston is fourth in wRC+ (114) against righties and tied for fourth in wOBA (.333) at home. Thus, their upside is as high as anyone. Gamers are encouraged to consider firing bullets or a single bullet on the 'Stros in GPPs tonight.
- First base is deep, but Freddie Freeman is the slam dunk core stud hitter tonight. Since last year, he's destroyed righties for a .413 OBP, .221 ISO and 156 wRC+.
- Teoscar Hernandez annihilates lefties. Since 2019, he's had a .359 OBP, .309 ISO and 154 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.
- Santiago Espinal is a steal at both DFS providers. Since debuting in 2020, he's had a .385 OBP and 132 wRC+ against lefties.
- It's rare to get a cheap above-average hitter at Coors Field, but Gavin Lux fits the bill. Since last year, he's had a .361 OBP and 119 wRC+ against righties.
- Bryson Stott is the first of two punts with shortstop eligibility. However, he's more attractive at DK than FD because of the upcoming alternative at the latter. Since May 31, in 164 plate appearances, Stott has had seven homers, three stolen bases and a 102 wRC+.
- Javier Baez is a lefty-killer. Since 2019, he's had a .345 OBP, .260 ISO and 137 wRC+ against southpaws.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
Three juggernaut offenses, the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Astros, are the chief sources of hitters in DFS tonight, with the Astros profiling better in GPPs than cash games. However, to accommodate the studs from those rosters and either Ohtani or Wheeler, hunting for values/punts is a must. Fortunately, the Dodgers and Blue Jays have a few cheap picks, and Stott and Baez are bargains.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.