As the week winds down, the MLB DFS slate cranks up. After a nine-game hump-day slate, there are a whopping 11 games on the docket at DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. It all starts at 7:05 pm ET. Further, like last night, there’s a treasure trove of top-shelf pitchers to select from.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Tonight's pitcher suggestions are narrowed down to three. Fortunately, there are rock-solid punts and values, allowing spending significant cap space for pitching and a high-end stack. A lefty in a mouthwatering matchup is the best pick, followed by another lefty in a battle of aces. Finally, a righty in the optimal matchup is a GPP option.
As the week winds down, the MLB DFS slate cranks up. After a nine-game hump-day slate, there are a whopping 11 games on the docket at DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. It all starts at 7:05 pm ET. Further, like last night, there’s a treasure trove of top-shelf pitchers to select from.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Tonight's pitcher suggestions are narrowed down to three. Fortunately, there are rock-solid punts and values, allowing spending significant cap space for pitching and a high-end stack. A lefty in a mouthwatering matchup is the best pick, followed by another lefty in a battle of aces. Finally, a righty in the optimal matchup is a GPP option.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) at LAA
Valdez is having an excellent season, and he's been especially hot lately. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts spanning 34 innings, he's had a 2.65 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 26.1 K% and 30.5 CSW%. Moreover, in his last 14 games, he's pitched at least six innings and allowed no more than three earned runs.
Valdez also struck out 13 batters when he faced the Angels on July 13, holding them to two runs in six innings. He has a great chance to dominate the struggling Angels again tonight. This year, they're 23rd in wRC+ (93) with the fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.8 K%) against lefties. Additionally, they're last in wRC+ (69) with a 28.8 K% in the previous 30 days. Finally, according to Betting Pros, Houston is -155, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs.
Carlos Rodon (SF) vs. MIL
The betting info is screaming for a pitcher's duel in San Francisco. The Brewers are -115 and the Giants are -105, but the game's total is a tiny 6.0 runs. Rodon is the cheaper pitcher of the two aces, and he's been on fire.
In his last five starts totaling 35 innings, he's had a 1.80 ERA, 2.69 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, 5.4 BB%, 31.8 K% and 34.8 CSW%. The Brewers are unlikely to provide Rodon much resistance. They're 22nd in wRC+ (93) against lefties with a 23.4 K%, which Rodon can pick apart. As a result, I'm delighted to take the discount, spinning down to Rodon from Corbin Burnes.
GPP Recommendation:
Triston McKenzie (CLE) vs. DET
McKenzie isn't a flawless pitcher. For example, his 3.47 ERA has been markedly better than 4.55 xERA, 4.37 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA. Still, his SIERA is a reasonable mark. McKenzie's 1.01 WHIP is also excellent, and his 22.9 K% is rock-solid.
Simply, McKenzie has been good enough to suggest he can mow down the lowly Tigers. Detroit is in the basement in wRC+ (70) against righties, striking out at a 23.9% clip. In addition, the Tigers have been MLB's worst offense on the road, owning a .259 wOBA, 66 wRC+ and 24.9 K%. Therefore, McKenzie should stave off regression to his ERA estimators for another start, and he's a high-upside, matchup-driven GPP pick.
Top Lineup Stacks
Jackson Kowar hasn't been announced as Kansas City's probable starter, but Roster Resource is projecting the righty will start. The 25-year-old is a punching bag. He's had a 10.13 ERA in five relief appearances for the Royals this year and a 6.34 ERA in a dozen starts in Triple-A. He's ill-equipped to tame Toronto's lineup. Yes, the Blue Jays will be chalky, but they're good chalk to eat.
- Road (Nationals Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -220
The Braves are another offense with a dreamy matchup. Anibal Sanchez hasn't pitched in the majors since recording a 6.62 ERA in 2020. The veteran righty hasn't demonstrated a reverse of fortune in three minor-league starts, tallying a 4.26 ERA and 5.67 xFIP in 12.2 innings. The Nationals have routinely trotted out pitchers who don't belong in a big-league rotation, and Sanchez is the latest example. So, I expect the Braves to hammer the washed-up starter.
- Road (Busch Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/LAD -155
The Dodgers stormed back to win last night. They'll attempt to keep up the momentum against a lucky pitcher. Dakota Hudson has had a 4.00 ERA. However, the righty's 5.25 xERA, 4.77 xFIP and 5.18 SIERA are better evaluations of his work. Perhaps, with the Blue Jays and Braves in more obvious blow-up spots, the Dodgers could be slightly overlooked, making them a dreamy GPP stack.
- Vladimir Guerrero has thrived at home against righties since the Blue Jays returned to Toronto on July 30, 2021. In 273 plate appearances, he's had a .341 OBP, .249 ISO and 127 wRC+.
- George Springer has also been great in Toronto against righties. In 237 plate appearances, he's had a .352 OBP, .236 ISO and 132 wRC+.
- Ronald Acuna will get the first crack at the washed-up Sanchez. The supremely talented outfielder is also a good bet to get the better of this matchup, owning a .373 OBP, .238 ISO and 137 wRC+ against righties since last year.
- Jose Miranda has raked since adjusting to the majors, but he's still priced as a punt. In 126 plate appearances from May 20 through July 10, Miranda had a .357 OBP, .235 ISO and 159 wRC+. Yesterday, he recorded three more hits, including a homer.
- Tommy Edman has had back-to-back multi-hit efforts, possibly demonstrating he's getting back into a groove. But, more importantly, he's had a .330 OBP, .206 ISO and 123 wRC+ against lefties in his career.
- Since returning to the majors in late June, Alex Kirilloff has turned his season around. Additionally, he's had a good season against righties, totaling a 121 wRC+ against them.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Blue Jays and Braves are in smash spots tonight, and both offenses are legitimate threats to score double-digit runs. However, the Dodgers are also an intriguing stack in GPPs. Values such as Edman, Miranda and Kirilloff will help preserve the cap space needed for using the high-upside stacks and top-shelf pitchers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
