MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (7/31)

This slate could be chaotic. We have the trade deadline within 72 hours, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some moves today. The Sunday before the deadline is a great time to acquire players for the upcoming week, and there will undoubtedly be some strange lineups released. Many regulars are typically rested on Sunday, and we anticipate some trade targets sitting as well. We’re hoping everyone suits up, so let’s get started with the pitchers!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

After an ugly pitcher’s pool on Saturday, we have a ton of great arms here. We didn’t even have room to squeeze in Shane McClanahan because his pricing is too lofty for our standards. He’s obviously one of the best options on the board, but we have four guys who are much better per-dollar values. With that said, let’s start with my favorite pitcher of the day!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Aaron Nola (PHI) at PIT

There’s no better bet for a quality start on this slate. Nola has been mowing down lineups recently, throwing at least seven innings in eight of his last nine starts. He’s also got a 3.05 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 rate over his last 17 starts, scoring at least 24 FanDuel points in all but one of those. Pittsburgh is one of the best matchups in baseball, too, with the Pirates ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, xwOBA, and K rate.

Max Fried (ATL) vs. ARI

Not enough people realize just how good this young lefty has been. Since allowing five runs in the opener, Max has maintained a 2.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across his last 19 starts. That’s what aces do, and he should continue that success against a 26th-ranked Arizona offense. Not to mention, Fried enters this matchup as a -250 favorite.

GPP Recommendations:

Dylan Cease (CWS) vs. OAK

My lineups are going to be littered with Nola and this guy. Cease has been unbelievable for two months, allowing one run or fewer in 11 straight starts. He’s also got a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in that span, leading all starters with a 12.5 K.9 rate. That would put him in play against anyone, but this Oakland team ranks 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. All of that has Cease and the Sox entering this matchup as a -250 favorite.

Taijuan Walker (NYM) at MIA

Walker has quietly been a monster for months. The former Mariner has allowed four runs or fewer in all but one start since the beginning of May, providing a 2.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in that span. That’s all you can ask for from a player in this price range, especially since he faces a 25th-ranked Miami offense playing without their best player. He’s faced them three times this season, averaging 44.7 FanDuel points per game!

Top Lineup Stacks

Chicago White Sox (vs. Adam Oller)

• Home (Guaranteed Rate)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/CWS -270

It feels like the Sox are about to turn it on any day now, and a weekend series against Oakland might be the way to get them rolling. This matchup with Oller is outstanding, with the Oakland righty registering an 8.07 ERA and 1.86 WHIP this year. That has Chicago projected for five runs in this spot, and most of these guys are way too cheap because of their recent struggles.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. German Marquez)

• Road (Coors Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/LAD -180

We discussed this yesterday but using LAD in Coors is a cheat code. This offense regularly scores double-digit runs in that ballpark, and they’re the highest projected lineup on this slate. It’s easy to understand why when looking at the matchup, with German Marquez totaling a 5.25 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Anytime you have an offense like this projected for nearly seven runs, you simply can’t fade them!

New York Yankees (vs. Zack Greinke)

• Home (Yankee Stadium)
• Value: Low 
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/NYY -260

The Yankees are always one of the best stacks on the board. This offense is loaded, ranked Top-5 in nearly every offensive category. That’s rough news for whoever the Royals send out here because they have to fill this spot with a random arm. That won’t go over well in Yankee Stadium, with this offense projected for nearly six runs.

UPDATE: It looks like Zack Greinke will start for KC. That obviously makes the Yanks a brilliant stack with his low K rate and ugly averages.

Core Studs

• If we like the Sox, we have to adore their best hitter. That’s Abreu, who’s got a .379 AVG, .430 OBP, .534 SLG, and .974 OPS over his last 30 games. That certainly won’t go well for a pitcher with an ERA north of 8.00.
• Soto has been the talk of baseball since he went on the trade market, but this dude has been raking for over a month now. In fact, the superstar outfielder has a .486 OBP, .607 SLG, and 1.093 OPS over his last 28 games. He’s also been much better against righties throughout his career, and we’re not worried about him facing Andre Pallante’s 1.47 WHIP.
• Judge is unbelievable. He’s starting to run away with AL MVP, leading baseball with 42 bombs. He’s done a ton of that damage recently, totaling a .500 OBP, 1.098 SLG, and 1.598 OPS over his last 14 games. He’s the best play on every slate, and Greinke won’t be able to slow him down.
• If there’s an NL equivalent of Judge, it’s Goldschmidt. The Cardinals first baseman is the frontrunner for NL MVP, generating a .334 AVG, .415 OBP, .615 SLG, and 1.030 OPS for the year. All of that makes him one of the safest cash game plays against a 29th-ranked Nationals pitching staff.
• The Angels are one of the sneakiest stacks on the board, and Shohei would have to be the heart of that stack. The two-way superstar has a career OPS north of .900 against right-handers, picking up almost all of his steals against them as well. We love that with his recent form, registering a .385 OBP and .913 OPS over his last 30 games. Dane Dunning is far from daunting, too, donning a 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Value Plays/Punts

• India got off to a slow start this season, but the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year is starting to return to that player we fell in love with. The Reds leadoff hitter has a hit in 15 of his last 18 games, tallying a .300 AVG, .364 OBP, .543 SLG, and .906 OPS in that span. That’s all you can ask for from a player in this price range, particularly since he’s facing a pitcher with a 6.15 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
• Muncy has his season average well below .200, but a matchup against a righty in Coors Field is the way to get him going. This is still a guy who can flirt with a .400 OBP, and he’s also been a 1.000 OPS guy in Coors throughout his career. That makes him a worthy punt play at this price, especially since he’s facing German Marquez’ 5.25 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
• Renfroe has always been one of the best power hitters in baseball, and that power strike is swimming right now. The bulky outfielder has homered in five of his last eight games, amassing a .695 SLG and 1.045 OPS in that span. Facing a pitcher like Josh Winckowski is the icing on the cake, though, with the righty totaling a 5.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
• Stacking the White Sox is one of my favorite strategies on this slate, and Moncada is the cheapest high-upside bat they have. The former top prospect has had a terrible season, but he’s maintaining a .349 OBP and .804 OPS over his last 14 games. We’ve already talked about how awful Oller has been, and it also puts Moncada on his more favorable left side.
• We had Walsh in here on Saturday, and we’re going right back to the well. He’s had a nightmarish season, but he’s still got an OPS just shy of .900 against righties since 2020. The BvP numbers against a struggling Dunning are the best part, with Walsh posting a .769 OBP, 1.444 SLG, and 2.213 OPS in 13 at-bats against the righty. I’ve never seen such dominant splits, let alone from a $3K player.

Hitter Strategy

This slate is simple for me. I’m going to pay up for some of the premium pitching and then build my hitting around the White Sox. The first thing I’m going to do is put In Jared Walsh, though, because he’s the best play on the board at his diminished price. That’s a great salary saver to start your lineup construction, and he’s a great pairing with all of the ChiSox I mentioned above. We also can’t forget about the Coors Field game, though, because that has the highest total on the board!

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.